SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.29 over ANAHEIM
Despite the loss yesterday, the Jays still offer up some tremendous value with a lefty going vs the Angels. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher (52%) and that makes him a threat every time he takes the mound. Romero has been consistently good for almost two full seasons now. The Angels .696 OPS against lefties this year is one of the worst marks in the majors and once again they’re in tough against Romero. Dan Haren picked up his first win as an Angel Tuesday by holding the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings. He struck out three and walked one in the victory. He only has five strikeouts over his last two starts, neither of which featured fear-inducing opponents (Orioles, Royals). Haren’s BAA since joining the Angels four starts ago is an unimpressive .278. On the year, he’s allowed 188 hits in 168 IP and he sure doesn’t seem to be getting stronger. The Angels pen is not very good, its offense is not very good and once again, just like in the first two games of this series, the Jays chances of winning have to be considered as good or better than the Halos chances. Play: Toronto +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.37 over ST. LOUIS
Tony LaRussa returns after serving his two-game suspension and the only thing that genius brings with him is the smell of whiskey oozing out of his pores. The Cards have dropped three of its last five at home and its pitching staff over that stretch has posted an ERA of 6.60. Things really don’t figure to get much better here with Kyle Lohse returning after a long stint on the DL. Lohse went on the DL in late May due to a right forearm strain. He was sent to a specialist for further testing and was diagnosed with extreme compartment syndrome, something usually seen in distance runners, not baseball players. In fact, this is the first known case of it occurring in a major league pitcher, leaving us in a bit of unknown territory. In this condition a sheath covering a muscle in the forearm does not allow it to expand. In his four rehab starts, Lohse posted an ERA of 4.74 and that’s not too encouraging. Before he landed on the DL he was brutal in nine starts with a BAA of .323 and an ERA of 5.89. Current Cub hitters are batting .355 of Lohse in 135 career AB’s. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster continues to throw quality start after quality start. Dempster has won his last two starts while allowing one earned run in 12.2 innings and has a 2.89 ERA over his last four starts vs the Cardinals. Dempster taking back +1.37 over Lohse is an absolute overlay. Play: Chicago +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.29 over ATLANTA
The Braves are coming off a rare loss at home but once again are overvalued here with Jair Jurrjens on the hill. Jurrjens has been very average since coming off the DL six weeks ago and while he does have some very good games, his xERA of 4.67 reveals that he’s been very fortunate too. He’ll never be a big strikeout guy and he’s very likely to give up a few runs today against a Dodger offense that is on the verge of a serious breakout. The Dodgers outhit the Braves yesterday 12-4 but only won 2-1. Only one Dodger regular is batting under .270 this month and four regulars are batting over .300. It’s only a matter of time until they string some hits together and get a few clutch hits with two outs. The Braves offense is in trouble. Five regulars are batting under .220 over the past 14 games and things don’t get easier against Vincente Padilla. Padilla is the real deal and everything in his under the surface stats confirms that. Padilla has shown an increased reliance on a new two-seam fastball that he is throwing over 25% of the time. Whether it is his favorite new pitch or the increased velocity on his curveball, Padilla should keep doing it because the results say it’s working. He comes in with impressive numbers right across the board that includes a 1.00 WHIP, a BAA of .210 and an ERA of 3.32, which is right in line with his xERA of 3.34. Padilla does not have a tough assignment here and one really has to like the Dodgers chances of an easy win. Play: Los Angeles +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
CALGARY –8½ over EDMONTON
You won’t find many that disagree with the fact that the Eskies are much better than its record indicates but what does it mean? Losing is very contagious and with only one win under its belt, a narrow and fortunate one over the Blue Bombers, pressure is mounting on this intruder and this is not the best place to be playing under the current conditions. Yeah, Edmonton has a skilled QB in Ricky Ray and they have a very good RB and some talented receivers but thus far, against some much weaker opponents, it’s all amounted to near nothing and when you throw in a brutally awful defense, it makes this task a daunting one at best. The Stamps are 5-1 and they haven’t even played that well. They crushed the Riders in Calgary in what can be described as “near flawless” and it was by far its best game of the year. Other than that game, they’ve just squeaked by but a visit from its biggest rival should have them peaking again. When the Eskies play here the place is electric and this one will be no different. The Stamps are a juggernaut of a team with perhaps fewer weaknesses than even Montreal or Saskatchewan. They are certainly capable of ripping the hearts out of this fragile intruder and would like nothing more than to kick this team when they’re down. Yes, 8½-points is a big number in this rivalry but the alternative to laying it appears much worse. Play: Calgary –8½ (No bets).
