Nite Owl Sports
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies - Sunday July 6, 2008 1:35 pm
Pick: 3 units MONEYLINE: New York Mets +109
We like the Mets at plus odds here to beat Philly and take this series, based on Mets' recent scoring punch and a favorable pitching match-up in this game. First, the Mets match up well with Philly starter Kendrick, who they already crushed, 8-2, earlier this season, in Philly. But that was not just a coincidence, given that Kendrick is a contact and groundball pitcher, and Mets have been pounding those types TY (5 RPG vs contact pitchers and 5.7 RPG vs GB pitchers). For that reason, as well as the occasional unpredictability of Mets starter Perez, we recommend putting most of your Mets money on the Mets over 4.5 on individual team totals line (in other words, betting that the Mets will score 5> runs, regardless of how many runs Philly scores or even who wins the game).This should not be too daunting of a task for the Mets, who have plated 7> runs in 6 of their last 11 games, including 9 in saturday's game, in which they shredded the Philly bullpen for 6 runs in last two innings to break open a close game. Mets are also better away in day games (10-7) than away at night (11-19).
Mets starter Oliver Perez has held Philly at bay not only TY (having already pitched 11 scoreless innings against them, including 6 in Philly), but also throughout his career pitching in Philly, where he has a 3-1 record. So although Philly hits LHPs well at home (6.3 RPG), the fact that they struggle vs power pitchers like Perez (hitting only 3.8 RPG against them) partially explains their fultility against him so f ar TY.However, before we get too carried away singing the praises of Perez, we should also mention that he throws in a real "stinker' once in awhile, and you never know quite when he will let you down. For that reason, we limit this pick to three units, and we repeat that if you have access to individual team totals lines, we believe the better betting angle is to bet Mets over 4.5 runs for 2-3 units and Mets for one or two units to win the game.