Handicapper: Andre Gomes
Sport: WNBA Basketball
Game: Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics - Sunday July 27, 2008 4:05 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 145 (-105) (Game of the Year)
Even though WNBA isn't exactly the most consistent league of the world, as we all know and unfortunately we have suffered from that, the play I have for this game can be considered as my totals game of the year, as it has my highest rate possible in my money management system: 5 units. That is only possible due to a number of circumstances that make this totals line to be an error of evaluation by the bookies and which gives us a great opportunity of profit.
If this game was last week I would say the totals line would be solid and we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the bookies in here. The truth is that two weeks ago, these two teams faced each other in Washington, also at a Sunday afternoon and the result was 69-64 for the Mystics, with the result being a clear under. However this was a different phase for both teams, as both Connecticut and Washington were in losing streak and without confidence. The FT's has shown exactly that: 13-24 FT and 21-31 FT. But things have changed. Now the scenario is completely different and the 145 points no longer fit in today's game scenario. The Mystics have a new coach and the team has gained a new soul, having won two of their last three games, including a win at home against Seattle by 89-57 and suddendly the worst offense in the league is now averaging 81 ppg in the first three games they have played with their new coach. The explanation is simple and it's only necessary to listen what their coach has been saying this week:
"The tempo wasn't as upbeat as I would have liked it to be in the first quarter, because when we run good things happen for us. We're going to make a turnover or two here running, but that's going to be our new identity. So I would have liked to get off to a better start there, but our defense dictates how much we can run."
Kenlaw is adamant that a full-court running game will become Washington's new identity, and the players like the athletic freedom that comes with it. Gone are most of the slow-moving, half-court offensive sets that often chewed up 15 seconds of the shot clock before Washington looked to take its first shot. In their place are fast-breaks that use the Mystics' speed to negate some of their inexperience and inconsistencies. The players are also liking their new style of the team:
"I love the style of play that Jessie's bringing to the team," Miller said. "I don't think I've ever been on a team where it has been as much up down like this, but it's definitely a lot of fun.
The result of this change in the style of the team has been wins, with the team playing with a much more quicker and offensive style.
On the other side, Connecticut which was struggling by having a five game losing streak has finally came back to the winning side. This team is a typical jump shooting team and for that they need wins to get confident, as when they have confidence, they are explosive in the attack. They have won their last two games and so, their confidence is back. Their last game even though it wasn't competitive against the Sparks was used not only to rest their best players, but to give a good number of minutes to the bench players, in order for them to gain rhythm. From the 87 points scored in that game, 42 came from the bench. So, we have two teams with confidence, which are coming from wins and playing with an high offensive tempo, which make the 145 points proposed for this game way too short. In fact in my predictions the line for this game should be higher than 150/152 points, so this is a clear oddmakers error, as this game will be clearly different from the one two weeks ago. Take the over in here as my TOTALS GAME OF THE YEAR. TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Sport: WNBA Basketball
Game: Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics - Sunday July 27, 2008 4:05 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 145 (-105) (Game of the Year)
Even though WNBA isn't exactly the most consistent league of the world, as we all know and unfortunately we have suffered from that, the play I have for this game can be considered as my totals game of the year, as it has my highest rate possible in my money management system: 5 units. That is only possible due to a number of circumstances that make this totals line to be an error of evaluation by the bookies and which gives us a great opportunity of profit.
If this game was last week I would say the totals line would be solid and we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the bookies in here. The truth is that two weeks ago, these two teams faced each other in Washington, also at a Sunday afternoon and the result was 69-64 for the Mystics, with the result being a clear under. However this was a different phase for both teams, as both Connecticut and Washington were in losing streak and without confidence. The FT's has shown exactly that: 13-24 FT and 21-31 FT. But things have changed. Now the scenario is completely different and the 145 points no longer fit in today's game scenario. The Mystics have a new coach and the team has gained a new soul, having won two of their last three games, including a win at home against Seattle by 89-57 and suddendly the worst offense in the league is now averaging 81 ppg in the first three games they have played with their new coach. The explanation is simple and it's only necessary to listen what their coach has been saying this week:
"The tempo wasn't as upbeat as I would have liked it to be in the first quarter, because when we run good things happen for us. We're going to make a turnover or two here running, but that's going to be our new identity. So I would have liked to get off to a better start there, but our defense dictates how much we can run."
Kenlaw is adamant that a full-court running game will become Washington's new identity, and the players like the athletic freedom that comes with it. Gone are most of the slow-moving, half-court offensive sets that often chewed up 15 seconds of the shot clock before Washington looked to take its first shot. In their place are fast-breaks that use the Mystics' speed to negate some of their inexperience and inconsistencies. The players are also liking their new style of the team:
"I love the style of play that Jessie's bringing to the team," Miller said. "I don't think I've ever been on a team where it has been as much up down like this, but it's definitely a lot of fun.
The result of this change in the style of the team has been wins, with the team playing with a much more quicker and offensive style.
On the other side, Connecticut which was struggling by having a five game losing streak has finally came back to the winning side. This team is a typical jump shooting team and for that they need wins to get confident, as when they have confidence, they are explosive in the attack. They have won their last two games and so, their confidence is back. Their last game even though it wasn't competitive against the Sparks was used not only to rest their best players, but to give a good number of minutes to the bench players, in order for them to gain rhythm. From the 87 points scored in that game, 42 came from the bench. So, we have two teams with confidence, which are coming from wins and playing with an high offensive tempo, which make the 145 points proposed for this game way too short. In fact in my predictions the line for this game should be higher than 150/152 points, so this is a clear oddmakers error, as this game will be clearly different from the one two weeks ago. Take the over in here as my TOTALS GAME OF THE YEAR. TRIPLE DIME PLAY
3Daily Winners
San Jose Sabercats vs. Philadelphia Soul
Play: San Jose Sabercats
Quarterbacks – Mark Grieb of San Jose (13-5, 10-7-1 ATS) is wily veteran and leads an offense that scores 60.6 points a game. Grieb and the SaberCats started slowly, as nine new players did not come together cohesively, along with being a little full of themselves being defending champions. Grieb and offensive coordinator Terry Malley kept working towards finding the right combinations and suddenly everything clicked. San Jose is on eight-game winning streak (6-1-1 ATS) and SaberCats signal caller threw 50 touchdowns in last six regular season games (100 for the season). Matt D'Orazio ended being the right person in the right place for Philadelphia (15-3, 10-8 ATS). Signed after being released by Chicago, D’Orazio took over when normal starter Tony Graziani was hurt again. D’Orazio ended up 10-3 straight up as starter and has tremendous presence in the pocket, rarely making miscues. He also has great mobility, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. He’s led them to five consecutive wins. For this championship contest, slight edge to Philly’s D’Orazio with ability to make plays with his feet and less likely to force a throw than Grieb. Offense- Philadelphia was the top scoring team in the AFL at 61.7 PPG, with San Jose second. The Soul owns a slight edge in total offense (297.2 vs 291.3) and did play in better conference. AFL Player of the Year Chris Jackson truly was in a league of his own, with 140 catches, 49 touchdowns at 12.2 yards per catch. The rest of the receivers are enhanced with Jackson’s presence. The offensive line and fullback were dubbed “The Fantastic Four”, doing yeomen work as pass protectors. San Jose uses the run for no apparent reason, preferring to out-scheme opponents and challenge them vertically. Grieb runs “read” offense almost to perfection and is as hot as any signal caller coming into this huge ballgame. The offensive line is solid, with Grieb having to make better decisions in the moment, after leading the league with 18 picks. Defense- The SaberCats defense might have been middle of the road statistically, but don’t be fooled. They boast what most consider the best secondary in the AFL, led by Clevan Thomas, who is the best press cover corner in the league. San Jose defenders are disruptive group and regularly throw timing off of opposing passing attacks. If this wasn’t enough, the ‘Cats led the league in sacks with 30 and takeaways with 45. The Philadelphia defense was third in points allowed in the regular season at 50.6 per game and they have stepped it up even further, begrudgingly giving up 41.5 in the postseason. The Soul has power and strength up the middle with LB Eddie Moten and NT Brian Save. When they create push up the gut, playmakers are on the perimeter to create havoc. Intangibles – San Jose will be without its most veteran wide receiver James Roe, who holds three career pass catching records for this franchise. He’s suffering from strained MCL to left knee. This means receivers like Jason Gaethers, Cleannord Saintil and Rodney Wright will have to elevate their games on the sports biggest stage. Philadelphia has unusual potential distraction, as Soul head coach Bret Munsey left Thursday to be with his pregnant wife. Continuity and familiarity are part of being a football player and when chain in broken, hard to guess on how a team and individuals react. Munsey is presumed to be back, however final preparations are somewhat thrown off. While it seems easy for players to want to win consecutive championships, Philadelphia comes in as the hungrier team, looking to lay claim to title. Betting News- Sportsbook.com has established Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite with total of 118. The Soul was 6-2 and 5-3 ATS on the road and San Jose arrives at 5-3 and 3-5 against the spread as the visitor. San Jose is built for momentum and is 9-0 ATS after scoring 53 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons. In addition, they are stunning 17-0 ATS after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. Philadelphia has never been a great spread cover team and is only 1-8 ATS after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Soul needs to play at their pace, otherwise they are 2-9 ATS vs. very good offensive teams scoring 55 or more points a game. To their credit, Philly is 7-2 ATS playing teams with winning records. The total is also set for suspense, as SaberCats are 10-2 OVER when playing with two weeks or more of rest and the Soul is 6-0 UNDER in playoff games. These teams met in Week 7 in San Jose, in a crazy contest. The SaberCats had built a 33-7 lead, before Philadelphia mounted furious comeback, to take a 58-57 lead with 10 seconds remaining. San Jose still had a chance, unfortunately for them, the ball hit the right upright and the Soul had stirring victory. This sets up to be classic ArenaBowl and is worth wagering on and tuning in on Sunday at 3 Eastern on ABC. Take San Jose +4 points.
San Jose Sabercats vs. Philadelphia Soul
Play: San Jose Sabercats
Quarterbacks – Mark Grieb of San Jose (13-5, 10-7-1 ATS) is wily veteran and leads an offense that scores 60.6 points a game. Grieb and the SaberCats started slowly, as nine new players did not come together cohesively, along with being a little full of themselves being defending champions. Grieb and offensive coordinator Terry Malley kept working towards finding the right combinations and suddenly everything clicked. San Jose is on eight-game winning streak (6-1-1 ATS) and SaberCats signal caller threw 50 touchdowns in last six regular season games (100 for the season). Matt D'Orazio ended being the right person in the right place for Philadelphia (15-3, 10-8 ATS). Signed after being released by Chicago, D’Orazio took over when normal starter Tony Graziani was hurt again. D’Orazio ended up 10-3 straight up as starter and has tremendous presence in the pocket, rarely making miscues. He also has great mobility, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. He’s led them to five consecutive wins. For this championship contest, slight edge to Philly’s D’Orazio with ability to make plays with his feet and less likely to force a throw than Grieb. Offense- Philadelphia was the top scoring team in the AFL at 61.7 PPG, with San Jose second. The Soul owns a slight edge in total offense (297.2 vs 291.3) and did play in better conference. AFL Player of the Year Chris Jackson truly was in a league of his own, with 140 catches, 49 touchdowns at 12.2 yards per catch. The rest of the receivers are enhanced with Jackson’s presence. The offensive line and fullback were dubbed “The Fantastic Four”, doing yeomen work as pass protectors. San Jose uses the run for no apparent reason, preferring to out-scheme opponents and challenge them vertically. Grieb runs “read” offense almost to perfection and is as hot as any signal caller coming into this huge ballgame. The offensive line is solid, with Grieb having to make better decisions in the moment, after leading the league with 18 picks. Defense- The SaberCats defense might have been middle of the road statistically, but don’t be fooled. They boast what most consider the best secondary in the AFL, led by Clevan Thomas, who is the best press cover corner in the league. San Jose defenders are disruptive group and regularly throw timing off of opposing passing attacks. If this wasn’t enough, the ‘Cats led the league in sacks with 30 and takeaways with 45. The Philadelphia defense was third in points allowed in the regular season at 50.6 per game and they have stepped it up even further, begrudgingly giving up 41.5 in the postseason. The Soul has power and strength up the middle with LB Eddie Moten and NT Brian Save. When they create push up the gut, playmakers are on the perimeter to create havoc. Intangibles – San Jose will be without its most veteran wide receiver James Roe, who holds three career pass catching records for this franchise. He’s suffering from strained MCL to left knee. This means receivers like Jason Gaethers, Cleannord Saintil and Rodney Wright will have to elevate their games on the sports biggest stage. Philadelphia has unusual potential distraction, as Soul head coach Bret Munsey left Thursday to be with his pregnant wife. Continuity and familiarity are part of being a football player and when chain in broken, hard to guess on how a team and individuals react. Munsey is presumed to be back, however final preparations are somewhat thrown off. While it seems easy for players to want to win consecutive championships, Philadelphia comes in as the hungrier team, looking to lay claim to title. Betting News- Sportsbook.com has established Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite with total of 118. The Soul was 6-2 and 5-3 ATS on the road and San Jose arrives at 5-3 and 3-5 against the spread as the visitor. San Jose is built for momentum and is 9-0 ATS after scoring 53 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons. In addition, they are stunning 17-0 ATS after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. Philadelphia has never been a great spread cover team and is only 1-8 ATS after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Soul needs to play at their pace, otherwise they are 2-9 ATS vs. very good offensive teams scoring 55 or more points a game. To their credit, Philly is 7-2 ATS playing teams with winning records. The total is also set for suspense, as SaberCats are 10-2 OVER when playing with two weeks or more of rest and the Soul is 6-0 UNDER in playoff games. These teams met in Week 7 in San Jose, in a crazy contest. The SaberCats had built a 33-7 lead, before Philadelphia mounted furious comeback, to take a 58-57 lead with 10 seconds remaining. San Jose still had a chance, unfortunately for them, the ball hit the right upright and the Soul had stirring victory. This sets up to be classic ArenaBowl and is worth wagering on and tuning in on Sunday at 3 Eastern on ABC. Take San Jose +4 points.
Boys-
cmg-Astros +150
cmg-Astros +150
JUST AN FYI, ANYONE HAVE ANYTHING EARLY THEY WANT TO POST FOR THE FIRST PRESEASON GAME ON 8/3
THE LINK IS UP>>>Service Plays Sunday 8/3/08 Pre-season Begins
THE LINK IS UP>>>Service Plays Sunday 8/3/08 Pre-season Begins
