Foxsheets
7 Stars
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(45-1 since 1997.) (97.8%, +
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +).
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(34-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (97.1%, +32.8 units.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
(41-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (95.3%, +38.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season
(40-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (97.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season
(42-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.3%, +37.6 units. )
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
6 Stars
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(37-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (94.9%, +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(70-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, )
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(46-1 since 1997.) (97.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(30-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.7%, +
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss versus opponent, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival
(73-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.1%, .
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(56-6 since 1997.) (90.3%, +47 units.
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(28-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (96.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(73-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (2-1
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games
(27-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (96.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
7 Stars
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(45-1 since 1997.) (97.8%, +
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +).
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(34-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (97.1%, +32.8 units.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
(41-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (95.3%, +38.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season
(40-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (97.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season
(42-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.3%, +37.6 units. )
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
6 Stars
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(37-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (94.9%, +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(70-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, )
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(46-1 since 1997.) (97.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(30-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.7%, +
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss versus opponent, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival
(73-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.1%, .
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(56-6 since 1997.) (90.3%, +47 units.
The situation's record this season is: (1-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(28-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (96.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss by 10 points or more
(73-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.9%,
The situation's record this season is: (2-1
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games
(27-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (96.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0
Foxsheets
6 Star
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (ARIZONA) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games
(43-20 since 1997.) (68.3%, )
The situation's record this season is: (9-1 +
All the rest are 4 Stars
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games
(60-35 since 1997.) (63.2%,
The situation's record this season is: (10-6 )
Favoring: ST LOUIS on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts
(42-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-1 ).
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(43-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (6-2
Favoring: FLORIDA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
(112-56 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%,
The situation's record this season is: (19-14
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after a loss by 2 runs or less
(82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +)
The situation's record this season is: (13-6
.Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, )
The situation's record this season is: (6-0 +
Favoring: ST LOUIS on the run line.
Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts
(66-28 since 1997.) (70.2%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-0
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(109-55 since 1997.) (66.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (2-1
6 Star
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (ARIZONA) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games
(43-20 since 1997.) (68.3%, )
The situation's record this season is: (9-1 +
All the rest are 4 Stars
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games
(60-35 since 1997.) (63.2%,
The situation's record this season is: (10-6 )
Favoring: ST LOUIS on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts
(42-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-1 ).
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(43-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (6-2
Favoring: FLORIDA on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
(112-56 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%,
The situation's record this season is: (19-14
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after a loss by 2 runs or less
(82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +)
The situation's record this season is: (13-6
.Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, )
The situation's record this season is: (6-0 +
Favoring: ST LOUIS on the run line.
Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts
(66-28 since 1997.) (70.2%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-0
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(109-55 since 1997.) (66.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (2-1
Venture Sports
Play 1 - ATLANTA/FLORIDA OVER 8 1/2 -105 (LISTED PITCHERSJurrjens/Volstad)
Play 2 - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -135 (LISTED PITCHERS Lincecum/Enright)
Play 3 - BOSTON RED SOX -150 (LISTED PITCHERS Matsuzaka/Fister)
Play 4 - ST.LOUIS CARDINALS -115 (LISTED PITCHERS Carpenter/Dempster)
Play 1 - ATLANTA/FLORIDA OVER 8 1/2 -105 (LISTED PITCHERSJurrjens/Volstad)
Play 2 - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -135 (LISTED PITCHERS Lincecum/Enright)
Play 3 - BOSTON RED SOX -150 (LISTED PITCHERS Matsuzaka/Fister)
Play 4 - ST.LOUIS CARDINALS -115 (LISTED PITCHERS Carpenter/Dempster)
WUNDERDOG (WNBA)
Game: New York at Atlanta (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Atlanta -210 (moneyline)
The Dream have lost four straight and desperately need to right the ship. What attribute did those four losses share? They were all on the road where Atlanta is just 6-7 on the season. At home, this team is a very tough, having posted an 8-2 record and scoring 87 ppg. After dropping four in a row, you can bet this team will be focused on notching the win here. While I am not sure they will cover this 4.5 point spread vs. a New York club that is 7-4 ATS on the road, I do think the Dream get the outright win. There are two very strong motivators for Atlanta here. In addition to breaking their 4-game losing streak, they were embarrassed last game losing by 10 points. And, they were embarrassed last time they faced the Liberty losing 79-91. Winning favorites that are coming off a double-digit loss to a division rival and are now facing another winning team are 28-1 straight up the past five WNBA seasons. In addition, home favorites that are revenging a loss in which they gave up 85+points when coming off a double-digit loss are 34-1 the past five seasons.
I like the Dream on the moneyline a lot here.
Game: New York at Atlanta (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Atlanta -210 (moneyline)
The Dream have lost four straight and desperately need to right the ship. What attribute did those four losses share? They were all on the road where Atlanta is just 6-7 on the season. At home, this team is a very tough, having posted an 8-2 record and scoring 87 ppg. After dropping four in a row, you can bet this team will be focused on notching the win here. While I am not sure they will cover this 4.5 point spread vs. a New York club that is 7-4 ATS on the road, I do think the Dream get the outright win. There are two very strong motivators for Atlanta here. In addition to breaking their 4-game losing streak, they were embarrassed last game losing by 10 points. And, they were embarrassed last time they faced the Liberty losing 79-91. Winning favorites that are coming off a double-digit loss to a division rival and are now facing another winning team are 28-1 straight up the past five WNBA seasons. In addition, home favorites that are revenging a loss in which they gave up 85+points when coming off a double-digit loss are 34-1 the past five seasons.
I like the Dream on the moneyline a lot here.
<img alt="Today's Picks" align="bottom" height="29" width="650"> Game: New York at Atlanta (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Atlanta -210 (moneyline)
Pick: Atlanta -210 (moneyline)
The Dream have lost four straight and desperately need to right the ship. What attribute did those four losses share? They were all on the road where Atlanta is just 6-7 on the season. At home, this team is a very tough, having posted an 8-2 record and scoring 87 ppg. After dropping four in a row, you can bet this team will be focused on notching the win here. While I am not sure they will cover this 4.5 point spread vs. a New York club that is 7-4 ATS on the road, I do think the Dream get the outright win. There are two very strong motivators for Atlanta here. In addition to breaking their 4-game losing streak, they were embarrassed last game losing by 10 points. And, they were embarrassed last time they faced the Liberty losing 79-91. Winning favorites that are coming off a double-digit loss to a division rival and are now facing another winning team are 28-1 straight up the past five WNBA seasons. In addition, home favorites that are revenging a loss in which they gave up 85+ points when coming off a double-digit loss are 34-1 the past five seasons. I like the Dream on the moneyline a lot here.
Derek Mancini 60-Dime Play: Cubs over STL Cardinals (list Dempster & Carpenter)
60 Dime release on the Chicago Cubs and Dempster over St. Louis and Carpenter. You should specify both schediled starters here. Any pitcshing change would result in this play being null and void. As I release this selectson at 8:30 AM Eastern, the Cubs are +110 in Las Vegas and offshore where i look.
Loving this spot for the resurgent Cubs, who've responded to Piniella's retirement announcement with some strong efforts in winning 3 of their L4 games. Moreover, it was Piniella's decision to shake up the batting order that has really got his club rocking and rolling. Moving Colvin and Castro to the top of the order seems like a genius move, and it's paying instant dividends with the Cubs scoring 7.2 runs per game (batting .321) since the change July 18th. Castro has been especially hot (.489 L11 games), and for those of you thinking this is going to be an easy match up for Carpenter... You've haven't been watching the Cubs lately.
Its tough to argue against Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA), but let's not forget he's just a couple starts removed from a pair of ugly efforts to begin the month. He now has to face a red-hot Cubs offense, which should do better in their second go around against him this season. Most bettors seem to think this is a major mismatch for Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA), but he's pitched quality efforts in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including excellent outings against the high-powered Reds and Phillies offenses. He had a slight slip-up against the Astros in his last one, but that's even more reason to believe he'll come out sharp tonight.
The best news for Dempster is he's catching the Cardinals in the midst of a mini-slump at the plate, which is significant. Betting baseball is all about timing, and right now, there's no question the Cardinals are ice-cold, while the Cubs are red-hot (in the short-term at least). St. Louis is batting just .175 in their L3 games - not good, especially when the Cubs are playing with a new found confidence. Gamblers are counting on the "avoid the sweep" angle to bail them out here, but buyer beware, there's a reason the Cardinals are only slight favorites tonight.
Price on this game is nothing short of a trap, making it so very easy to lay it with Carpenter. But instead of blindly playing the Cardinals - ask yourself: why is it so cheap to play Carpenter in this spot, in an "avoid the sweep" type situation. The answer is simple... Oddsmakers are begging for Cardinals money. Not falling for it. Cubs (Dempster) over Cardinals (Carpenter) Sunday night.
60 Dime release on the Chicago Cubs and Dempster over St. Louis and Carpenter. You should specify both schediled starters here. Any pitcshing change would result in this play being null and void. As I release this selectson at 8:30 AM Eastern, the Cubs are +110 in Las Vegas and offshore where i look.
Loving this spot for the resurgent Cubs, who've responded to Piniella's retirement announcement with some strong efforts in winning 3 of their L4 games. Moreover, it was Piniella's decision to shake up the batting order that has really got his club rocking and rolling. Moving Colvin and Castro to the top of the order seems like a genius move, and it's paying instant dividends with the Cubs scoring 7.2 runs per game (batting .321) since the change July 18th. Castro has been especially hot (.489 L11 games), and for those of you thinking this is going to be an easy match up for Carpenter... You've haven't been watching the Cubs lately.
Its tough to argue against Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA), but let's not forget he's just a couple starts removed from a pair of ugly efforts to begin the month. He now has to face a red-hot Cubs offense, which should do better in their second go around against him this season. Most bettors seem to think this is a major mismatch for Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA), but he's pitched quality efforts in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including excellent outings against the high-powered Reds and Phillies offenses. He had a slight slip-up against the Astros in his last one, but that's even more reason to believe he'll come out sharp tonight.
The best news for Dempster is he's catching the Cardinals in the midst of a mini-slump at the plate, which is significant. Betting baseball is all about timing, and right now, there's no question the Cardinals are ice-cold, while the Cubs are red-hot (in the short-term at least). St. Louis is batting just .175 in their L3 games - not good, especially when the Cubs are playing with a new found confidence. Gamblers are counting on the "avoid the sweep" angle to bail them out here, but buyer beware, there's a reason the Cardinals are only slight favorites tonight.
Price on this game is nothing short of a trap, making it so very easy to lay it with Carpenter. But instead of blindly playing the Cardinals - ask yourself: why is it so cheap to play Carpenter in this spot, in an "avoid the sweep" type situation. The answer is simple... Oddsmakers are begging for Cardinals money. Not falling for it. Cubs (Dempster) over Cardinals (Carpenter) Sunday night.
Stephen Nover 100-Dime Play: STL Cardinals over Cubs (list Carpenter only)
My 100 Dime Release is on the St. Louis Cardinals. And make note, I am specifying one pitcher for this game, as you will see in my detailed analysis. As this play is releasid at 5:30 a.m. Pacific, the Cardinals are -125 pretty much across the board. Be sure to shop the numbesrs as best you can, to get the best posssble number.
Analysis
I easily cashed on my 100 Dime play on Saturday winning by six runs with San Francisco over Arizona.
Right now I'm in the zone and feel just as strong about the Cardinals, with Chris Carpenter on the mound, to beat the Cubs. It's just my third 100 Dime play of the season - my highist ranking - but the price and matchup are right to back St. Louis.
Carpenter is an ace, an "A" pitcher who is having another strong season and is in excellent form. His opponesnt, Ryan Dempster, is at least one level if not two levels behind him.
The Cardinals are the best team in the National League. The Cubs are eight games below .500, do not have a winning home mark and are playing for a lamedsck manager, Lou Piniella.
Yet the price doesn't reflect the disparity between the two teams, providing excellent value on the Cardinals.
In making the Cardinals a lesser favorite than they should be, the oddsmaker is factoring the Cubs winning the first two games of this series. Before this series began, though, the Cardinals had won eight of their last nine games. They were forced to start washed-up Jeff Suppan in Game 1 against the Cubs and then rookie No. 5 pitcher Blake Hawksworth during Saturday's loss.
So it's not shocking the Cubs won the first two games. The Cubs are going with young players. But these players aren't going to be facing bad pitching in this matchup. Carpenter is pitching well and ace closer Ryan Franklin is rested.
Carpenter is 11-3 with a 3.05 ERA. His road ERA is 3.07. He has yet to lose a decision when pitching at night going 8-0 with a 2.23 ERA in night games. Carpenter said he's happier with his delivery than he has been all season and it's shown in his last two starts - two earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers and Phillies with a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and nine hits.
The Cubs have lost the past four times they've faced Carpenter. Carpenter is going on his normal four days rest. The Cardinals are 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times Carpenter has pitched on four days rest.
Let's contrast this with Dempster, who has a 4.30 ERA this month. Dempster's last two starts - both coming at home versus the Astros and Phillies - have resulted in six earned runs, 14 hits and seven walks in 11 2/3 innings. Cubs closer Carlos Marmol threw 20 pitches in getting a save in Saturday's game.
The Cubs have lost the last four times they've faced the Cardinals with Dempster. The Cubs have lost in 12 of the last 17 times when Dempster has been an underdog.
After this game, the Cardinals have an off-day on Monday before staying on the road to face the Mets, who have one of the best home marks in the National League going 30-16 at Citi Field. The Cardinals are going to see Johan Santana in that series.
Trailing the Reds by one-half game in the Central Division, this is a huge game for the Cardinals. So a strong effort should be expected. Look for the Cardinals to be on their game and for Carpenter to get the best of Dempster
My 100 Dime Release is on the St. Louis Cardinals. And make note, I am specifying one pitcher for this game, as you will see in my detailed analysis. As this play is releasid at 5:30 a.m. Pacific, the Cardinals are -125 pretty much across the board. Be sure to shop the numbesrs as best you can, to get the best posssble number.
Analysis
I easily cashed on my 100 Dime play on Saturday winning by six runs with San Francisco over Arizona.
Right now I'm in the zone and feel just as strong about the Cardinals, with Chris Carpenter on the mound, to beat the Cubs. It's just my third 100 Dime play of the season - my highist ranking - but the price and matchup are right to back St. Louis.
Carpenter is an ace, an "A" pitcher who is having another strong season and is in excellent form. His opponesnt, Ryan Dempster, is at least one level if not two levels behind him.
The Cardinals are the best team in the National League. The Cubs are eight games below .500, do not have a winning home mark and are playing for a lamedsck manager, Lou Piniella.
Yet the price doesn't reflect the disparity between the two teams, providing excellent value on the Cardinals.
In making the Cardinals a lesser favorite than they should be, the oddsmaker is factoring the Cubs winning the first two games of this series. Before this series began, though, the Cardinals had won eight of their last nine games. They were forced to start washed-up Jeff Suppan in Game 1 against the Cubs and then rookie No. 5 pitcher Blake Hawksworth during Saturday's loss.
So it's not shocking the Cubs won the first two games. The Cubs are going with young players. But these players aren't going to be facing bad pitching in this matchup. Carpenter is pitching well and ace closer Ryan Franklin is rested.
Carpenter is 11-3 with a 3.05 ERA. His road ERA is 3.07. He has yet to lose a decision when pitching at night going 8-0 with a 2.23 ERA in night games. Carpenter said he's happier with his delivery than he has been all season and it's shown in his last two starts - two earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers and Phillies with a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and nine hits.
The Cubs have lost the past four times they've faced Carpenter. Carpenter is going on his normal four days rest. The Cardinals are 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times Carpenter has pitched on four days rest.
Let's contrast this with Dempster, who has a 4.30 ERA this month. Dempster's last two starts - both coming at home versus the Astros and Phillies - have resulted in six earned runs, 14 hits and seven walks in 11 2/3 innings. Cubs closer Carlos Marmol threw 20 pitches in getting a save in Saturday's game.
The Cubs have lost the last four times they've faced the Cardinals with Dempster. The Cubs have lost in 12 of the last 17 times when Dempster has been an underdog.
After this game, the Cardinals have an off-day on Monday before staying on the road to face the Mets, who have one of the best home marks in the National League going 30-16 at Citi Field. The Cardinals are going to see Johan Santana in that series.
Trailing the Reds by one-half game in the Central Division, this is a huge game for the Cardinals. So a strong effort should be expected. Look for the Cardinals to be on their game and for Carpenter to get the best of Dempster
BRUCE MARSHALL
Mets at Dodgers
Pick: Mets +170
We're not impressed that the Dodgers have managed to win 3 of their past 4 games, especially since their offense has been contributing almost nothing, with only 8 runs to show for those last outings. R.A. Dickey's knuckleball could cause the Blue more problems this afternoon at the Ravine, and a little help from the New York offense (not exactly percolating at the moment) could get the Mets over the hump against Clayton Kershaw, back on the hill after being ejected in last Tuesday's loss to the Giants. Play Mets
Mets at Dodgers
Pick: Mets +170
We're not impressed that the Dodgers have managed to win 3 of their past 4 games, especially since their offense has been contributing almost nothing, with only 8 runs to show for those last outings. R.A. Dickey's knuckleball could cause the Blue more problems this afternoon at the Ravine, and a little help from the New York offense (not exactly percolating at the moment) could get the Mets over the hump against Clayton Kershaw, back on the hill after being ejected in last Tuesday's loss to the Giants. Play Mets
