Ren1984,
I can't tell you who to bet or how much to bet but I've been where you are now and I took your approach and I've learned the hard way it's not the best way to go. This is called chasing and you don't want to wake up tomorrow down 2G's. Try to get some of it back if you can afford it, look at it as a marathon and not a sprint. I don't think anyone can give you 2 sure winners because if they could I would come out of retirement and play them myself. The message I'm trying to get to you is to be careful and I'm sure some good gamblers here will agree. GL.
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
We've run out of superlatives for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who has won his last eight starts allowing only five runs combined, one of which was a 15-strikeout no-hit performance against Colorado on June 18. But in the betting world, sometimes you have to say enough is enough. And when we're talking about enough in the betting world, it's all about the price and where it probably should be.
So, let's break down where tonight's Dodgers-Cardinals line should be. On a neutral field, without pitchers involved, the game is about a pick 'em. We'd then give the Cardinals about a 10-cent edge because they're at home. As the months go on for quality teams the home field increases. So since we're in late-July after the All-Star break, 10 cents is justified compared to April when it's maybe only about five cents. So on that alone, without the pitching matchup, we have the Cardinals at -120.
Now the big tamale is adding in the pitchers and in this instance we have baseball's best pitcher in Kershaw (11-2, 1.78 ERA), on a hot streak, going against a quality young Carlos Martinez (2-4, 4.43) making only his eighth career start and seventh this season after 30 appearances in relief.
While Martinez's ERA may suggest that he has struggled, the Cardinals have bailed him out and won five of his six starts. Okay, so he has allowed four runs in each of his past two outings. We get that, but this is the kid's dream. He has wanted to be a starter ever since he came into the big leagues last season and nearly won a spot in the spring based on his great stuff before being relegated to the bullpen.
Besides all the dreams of Martinez, the cold hard facts make Kershaw at least 80 cents better in any situation. However, when looking at the -185 price on Kershaw, things just don't add up. If Kershaw is 80 cents better than Martinez, the price should be -170 based on home field for St. Louis and also giving them a similar overall team rating.
Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina being out is a big deal, but they're playing great ball right now, winning four of their past five and seven of their last nine while looking for a sweep right out of the gate after the break. But Molina being out is already factored into the overall team rating, so no minuses factored in for the Cards, especially with their great play lately.
With the Cardinals' win Saturday, coupled with the Brewers loss, the Birds are now tied for first place in the NL Central. Meanwhile, with the Giants winning the past two days at Miami and the Dodgers dropping two, San Francisco now has a one-game lead in the NL West. That momentum on both sides is worth a three cent edge to the Cardinals. So now we're at Dodgers -167.
Two key players left Saturday's game which has to be factored in as well. Matt Holliday banged his head on a play at second while the Dodgers' best player, Yasiel Puig, was hit in the hand. Both players left the game early and their status for Sunday night's game is unknown at the time of writing this, but of the two, Puig is the more valuable player and worth at least six cents to the number while Holliday is worth about two cents (he's not been the typical power-hitting Holliday of the past).
So let's just say they're both out, which gives the Cardinals a four-cent edge. Now we're at Dodgers -163. We can logically say, unless we see wild lineup changes, that Kershaw and the Dodgers are priced about 22 cents too high and that makes it a must play on the undervalued team. And the sell is even easier when they're going for the sweep and playing great ball.
For those that read all this and say "so what" and play the run-line at -1.5 -110 and roll with the Kershaw express, consider that the Dodgers have scored only 12 runs in their past seven games. That's with Puig in the lineup while Matt Kemp bickers about his role on the club. Also consider that before Kershaw beat the Cardinals earlier this season, he had been 0-5 with a 6.59 ERA against them in his previous five outings, including two losses in the NLCS last season. You could downgrade Kershaw a couple of cents on past history as well.
I picked the Dodgers to win the World Series a few days ago, and still believe they will, but baseball is all about moments and streaks. While Kershaw has a great streak going, his team isn't performing well offensively lately. And the run-line players following Kershaw's roll know exactly what I mean as he beat the Padres, 2-1, in his last outing.
The play in this game is St. Louis to win and get the sweep.
Sunday's selections:
Cardinals (Martinez) +170 vs. Dodgers
Padres (Despaigne) -104 vs. Mets
Cubs (Arrieta) +109 at Diamondbacks
Mariners/Angels OVER 8.5 (-110)
Reds (Cueto) -101 at Yankees
By: Micah Roberts
We've run out of superlatives for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who has won his last eight starts allowing only five runs combined, one of which was a 15-strikeout no-hit performance against Colorado on June 18. But in the betting world, sometimes you have to say enough is enough. And when we're talking about enough in the betting world, it's all about the price and where it probably should be.
So, let's break down where tonight's Dodgers-Cardinals line should be. On a neutral field, without pitchers involved, the game is about a pick 'em. We'd then give the Cardinals about a 10-cent edge because they're at home. As the months go on for quality teams the home field increases. So since we're in late-July after the All-Star break, 10 cents is justified compared to April when it's maybe only about five cents. So on that alone, without the pitching matchup, we have the Cardinals at -120.
Now the big tamale is adding in the pitchers and in this instance we have baseball's best pitcher in Kershaw (11-2, 1.78 ERA), on a hot streak, going against a quality young Carlos Martinez (2-4, 4.43) making only his eighth career start and seventh this season after 30 appearances in relief.
While Martinez's ERA may suggest that he has struggled, the Cardinals have bailed him out and won five of his six starts. Okay, so he has allowed four runs in each of his past two outings. We get that, but this is the kid's dream. He has wanted to be a starter ever since he came into the big leagues last season and nearly won a spot in the spring based on his great stuff before being relegated to the bullpen.
Besides all the dreams of Martinez, the cold hard facts make Kershaw at least 80 cents better in any situation. However, when looking at the -185 price on Kershaw, things just don't add up. If Kershaw is 80 cents better than Martinez, the price should be -170 based on home field for St. Louis and also giving them a similar overall team rating.
Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina being out is a big deal, but they're playing great ball right now, winning four of their past five and seven of their last nine while looking for a sweep right out of the gate after the break. But Molina being out is already factored into the overall team rating, so no minuses factored in for the Cards, especially with their great play lately.
With the Cardinals' win Saturday, coupled with the Brewers loss, the Birds are now tied for first place in the NL Central. Meanwhile, with the Giants winning the past two days at Miami and the Dodgers dropping two, San Francisco now has a one-game lead in the NL West. That momentum on both sides is worth a three cent edge to the Cardinals. So now we're at Dodgers -167.
Two key players left Saturday's game which has to be factored in as well. Matt Holliday banged his head on a play at second while the Dodgers' best player, Yasiel Puig, was hit in the hand. Both players left the game early and their status for Sunday night's game is unknown at the time of writing this, but of the two, Puig is the more valuable player and worth at least six cents to the number while Holliday is worth about two cents (he's not been the typical power-hitting Holliday of the past).
So let's just say they're both out, which gives the Cardinals a four-cent edge. Now we're at Dodgers -163. We can logically say, unless we see wild lineup changes, that Kershaw and the Dodgers are priced about 22 cents too high and that makes it a must play on the undervalued team. And the sell is even easier when they're going for the sweep and playing great ball.
For those that read all this and say "so what" and play the run-line at -1.5 -110 and roll with the Kershaw express, consider that the Dodgers have scored only 12 runs in their past seven games. That's with Puig in the lineup while Matt Kemp bickers about his role on the club. Also consider that before Kershaw beat the Cardinals earlier this season, he had been 0-5 with a 6.59 ERA against them in his previous five outings, including two losses in the NLCS last season. You could downgrade Kershaw a couple of cents on past history as well.
I picked the Dodgers to win the World Series a few days ago, and still believe they will, but baseball is all about moments and streaks. While Kershaw has a great streak going, his team isn't performing well offensively lately. And the run-line players following Kershaw's roll know exactly what I mean as he beat the Padres, 2-1, in his last outing.
The play in this game is St. Louis to win and get the sweep.
Sunday's selections:
Cardinals (Martinez) +170 vs. Dodgers
Padres (Despaigne) -104 vs. Mets
Cubs (Arrieta) +109 at Diamondbacks
Mariners/Angels OVER 8.5 (-110)
Reds (Cueto) -101 at Yankees
Diamond Trends - Sunday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
-- The Mariners are 0-13 (+$1,300) since August 08, 2009 as a dog after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Jake Arrieta starts the Cubs are 8-0 since August 16, 2013 after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $1018.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Mets are 12-0-1 OU since May 11, 2005 on the road after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Rockies are 0-10 since May 30, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1015 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 12-1 since August 17, 2011 as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits at home and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1085.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
-- The Mariners are 0-13 (+$1,300) since August 08, 2009 as a dog after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Jake Arrieta starts the Cubs are 8-0 since August 16, 2013 after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $1018.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Mets are 12-0-1 OU since May 11, 2005 on the road after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Rockies are 0-10 since May 30, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1015 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 12-1 since August 17, 2011 as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits at home and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1085.
DAVE ESSLER
Sunday Thoughts & Bonus Play
956 PIT (+145) vs 955 COL
Analysis: Two team ML parlay……
Pittsburgh (Locke -185) to LA Dodgers (Kershaw -170)
I am not a huge Locke fan, but without Tulowitzki (perhaps) and as poorly as Colorado is playing, I’ll take my chances. There’s an end game here, and that’s that if the Pirates do win this game, that we have huge options later. Taking the Cardinals at home, even the RL is cheap, or the ML and just taking profit. We’ll see what happens.
Other games:
The Fish have fallen on hard times, but they did make a valiant effort to come back last night. I still can’t wrap my head around Lincecum (paying that price on the road) but Brad Hand can go either way. With the total coming down (I do not agree) I would have to throw a bit on the Fish RL or use that in a parlay, because it’s not cheap.
The Brewers might be pressing a bit today, and Gallardo isn’t (IMO) as good as advertised. Gio has been pitching well enough to be -130 here, and inasmuch as you guys know I like the dogs, I can’t fade the Nationals here.
I don’t care how bad Kendrick can be, or who is or isn’t playing for the Phillies. Wood should not be -200 to anyone, so I would take the Phillies RL here.
I can’t touch the Mets/Padres game. I suppose I would have to take the Padres at home after yesterday, but that’s playing Russian Roulette no matter which way you go. I’d follow late money if it were telling enough.
Cubs meltdown last night and Trumbo back means I lean over in this one, in spite of the move down. I’m not a Collmenter fan, or a fan of either bullpen.
I really want to take the Rangers here. I don’t like Buerhle and the Rangers are SOMEWHAT better against LHP. Tepesch isn’t Darvish, but the Jays w/o Edwin and a couple others might be vulnerable here.
As badly as the Tigers have been playing, Smyly is the type of pitcher that could pose a problem for Cleveland. Not sure I’m ready to lay the price, but am not sure that it isn’t correct.
I just don’t like Jon Lester at any price. He’s just not the same, and even tho the Royals are better against RHP, Ventura is under valued now (he has been over valued) so I could make a reasonable case for the Royals RL.
I’d love to find a way to take the home dog that is the Twins, but I just can’t. That’s a game that has “pass” written all over it, although I’d consider the over if anything.
Skaggs does not need to be -160 here, I don’t care how Young has been on the road or against the Angels. Seattle RL or even ML a very possible play for us.
IMO clearly the value lies with the Orioles at that price. I can’t lay -160 (ever, really) and just don’t see laying the -1.5 with a home team that may be ahead by one and not bat in the ninth. Nothing more annoying. Perhaps under there.
The move to the Yankees is somewhat expected with the Reds injuries, but I couldn’t pass up Cueto at that number to have the Reds avoid another loss.
Sunday Thoughts & Bonus Play
956 PIT (+145) vs 955 COL
Analysis: Two team ML parlay……
Pittsburgh (Locke -185) to LA Dodgers (Kershaw -170)
I am not a huge Locke fan, but without Tulowitzki (perhaps) and as poorly as Colorado is playing, I’ll take my chances. There’s an end game here, and that’s that if the Pirates do win this game, that we have huge options later. Taking the Cardinals at home, even the RL is cheap, or the ML and just taking profit. We’ll see what happens.
Other games:
The Fish have fallen on hard times, but they did make a valiant effort to come back last night. I still can’t wrap my head around Lincecum (paying that price on the road) but Brad Hand can go either way. With the total coming down (I do not agree) I would have to throw a bit on the Fish RL or use that in a parlay, because it’s not cheap.
The Brewers might be pressing a bit today, and Gallardo isn’t (IMO) as good as advertised. Gio has been pitching well enough to be -130 here, and inasmuch as you guys know I like the dogs, I can’t fade the Nationals here.
I don’t care how bad Kendrick can be, or who is or isn’t playing for the Phillies. Wood should not be -200 to anyone, so I would take the Phillies RL here.
I can’t touch the Mets/Padres game. I suppose I would have to take the Padres at home after yesterday, but that’s playing Russian Roulette no matter which way you go. I’d follow late money if it were telling enough.
Cubs meltdown last night and Trumbo back means I lean over in this one, in spite of the move down. I’m not a Collmenter fan, or a fan of either bullpen.
I really want to take the Rangers here. I don’t like Buerhle and the Rangers are SOMEWHAT better against LHP. Tepesch isn’t Darvish, but the Jays w/o Edwin and a couple others might be vulnerable here.
As badly as the Tigers have been playing, Smyly is the type of pitcher that could pose a problem for Cleveland. Not sure I’m ready to lay the price, but am not sure that it isn’t correct.
I just don’t like Jon Lester at any price. He’s just not the same, and even tho the Royals are better against RHP, Ventura is under valued now (he has been over valued) so I could make a reasonable case for the Royals RL.
I’d love to find a way to take the home dog that is the Twins, but I just can’t. That’s a game that has “pass” written all over it, although I’d consider the over if anything.
Skaggs does not need to be -160 here, I don’t care how Young has been on the road or against the Angels. Seattle RL or even ML a very possible play for us.
IMO clearly the value lies with the Orioles at that price. I can’t lay -160 (ever, really) and just don’t see laying the -1.5 with a home team that may be ahead by one and not bat in the ninth. Nothing more annoying. Perhaps under there.
The move to the Yankees is somewhat expected with the Reds injuries, but I couldn’t pass up Cueto at that number to have the Reds avoid another loss.
SHAKER’S SHORTS
Bonus Play - 971 TAM (-128) vs 972 MIN
Analysis: The Rays may not have accomplished what they have wanted to this year but this team is finally playing the way they can and in doing so they are scoring a lot of runs. Severe Pitching Mis-Match for this one and there is no reason to be fooled by the Twins starter who has been extremely lucky over his “Good” recent run. In addition he has not performed well here at Target field and while I don’t have those stats handy as I write these notes, they are pretty bad. Archer has been a charmer and he has a very good GB Ratio this year and the reason why his last 10 of 11 starts have featured NO DINGERS. Laying this price on the road is not my norm but doing it here is no so hard to do..
Biggest UNDER Umps going today are doing games at Miami 7-1 U/0, St Louis 4-10 U/0, Boston 3-13 U/o.
Notable OVER Ump at Washington with Campos at 6-0 O/U and 9.5 RPG.
Bonus Play - 971 TAM (-128) vs 972 MIN
Analysis: The Rays may not have accomplished what they have wanted to this year but this team is finally playing the way they can and in doing so they are scoring a lot of runs. Severe Pitching Mis-Match for this one and there is no reason to be fooled by the Twins starter who has been extremely lucky over his “Good” recent run. In addition he has not performed well here at Target field and while I don’t have those stats handy as I write these notes, they are pretty bad. Archer has been a charmer and he has a very good GB Ratio this year and the reason why his last 10 of 11 starts have featured NO DINGERS. Laying this price on the road is not my norm but doing it here is no so hard to do..
Biggest UNDER Umps going today are doing games at Miami 7-1 U/0, St Louis 4-10 U/0, Boston 3-13 U/o.
Notable OVER Ump at Washington with Campos at 6-0 O/U and 9.5 RPG.
