Service Plays Sunday 7/18/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL WNBA

Indiana at New York

The Fever look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in the last 6 meetings between the two teams. Indiana is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Los Angeles at San Antonio (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 106.704; San Antonio 112.263
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+6 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Indiana at New York (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.855; New York 113.106
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana 1 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Chicago at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.757; Washington 118.528
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 7; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6; 146
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday, July 18

Hot pitchers
-- Wood is 0-0, 3.05 in three starts this year.
-- Lowe has 2.88 RA in last four starts, but Braves lost all four games.
-- Oswalt is 1-0, 0.00 (16 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Padilla is 3-1, 1.57 in his last four starts.
-- EJackson is 2-0, 1.40 in his last three road starts.
-- JSantana is 2-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.
-- Halladay is 2-1, 1.36 in his last four starts. Gorzelanny is 2-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.

-- Price is 2-1, 2.28 in his last three starts. Pettitte is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Red Sox won Lester's last seven starts at Fenway. Texas is 12-2 with Wilson if it scores two or more runs.
-- White Sox won FGarcia's last eight starts (1-0, 2.84 last three).
-- Mazzaro is 2-1, 2.30 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Stammen is 1-2, 6.44 in his last nine starts. Sanabia threw 3.1 scoreless IP in his first '10 start.
-- Cook is 1-2, 5.46 in his last five starts.
-- Parra is 1-1, 8.62 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 1-4, 8.20 in his last five home starts.
-- Suppan is 0-3, 6.46 in his last three starts.
-- Correia is 0-2, 5.48 in his last four starts.
-- JSanchez has 6.75 RA in his last five starts.

-- Oliver is 0-2, 10.95 in his last three starts. Gomez is 6-8, 5.70 in his 18 starts at AAA Columbus this year.
-- Matusz is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts. Marcum is 2-2, 6.29 in his last six starts.
-- Blackburn is 1-4, 12.31 in his last five starts.
-- Bannister is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 0-2, 5.51 in his last three starts. ESantana is 2-4, 4.95 in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Seven of last eleven Cub games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Houston road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-4-2 in last sixteen Cincinnati home games.
-- Last six Florida home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Atlanta home games.
-- Six of last seven Dodger road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Jackson starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in Giants' last eight home games.

-- Six of last eight Cleveland home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Three of last four Pettitte starts went over; three of last four Price starts stayed under.
-- Seven of last eleven Texas road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Royal home games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve White Sox road games stayed under total. Over is 7-3 in Minnesota's last ten home games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Angel games.

Hot Teams
-- Braves are 21-5 in their last 26 home games. Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
-- Rockies won six of their last nine games.
-- Cardinals are 20-9 in last 28 home games.
-- Padres won six of their last seven home games.
-- Giants won nine of their last ten games.

-- Indians won their last three games, allowing six runs.
-- Rays won 11 of their last 14 games. Bronx won nine of its last 11.
-- Toronto won three of its last four games.
-- White Sox are 26-7 in last 33 games, 13-6 in last 19 on road. Twins won three of their last four games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine road games.
-- Angels won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost seven of last ten road games. Cubs are 4-9 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Marlins lost eight of their last eleven home games. Nationals are 3-14 in last seventeen road games.
-- Dodgers lost their last three road games.
-- Reds lost five of their last eight games.
-- Astros lost 12 of their last 18 road games. Pirates lost seven of their last eight games overall, but are 6-2 in last eight home games.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last eleven games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last twelve road games, and were outscored in first three games of this series, 11-4.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five home games.
-- Tigers lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last ten games. Rangers lost five of seven.
-- Twins lost five of their last eight games, but won last two.
-- Royals lost their last five games, allowing 39 runs.
-- Mariners lost 12 of their last 14 games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Chi-- Six of last seven Hickox games went over the total.
-- LA-StL-- Favorite won five of last six Knight games.
-- Hst-Pitt-- Not enough data to analyze sub umpire Carapazza.
-- Wsh-Fla-- Underdogs are 5-4 (+$333) in last nine Bellino games.
-- Colo-Cin-- Favorites (+$387) are 6-2 in last eight Barksdale games.
-- Mil-Atl-- Last six Barry games went over the total.
-- Az-SD-- Over is 7-3 in Danley's last ten games behind the plate.
-- NY-SF-- Over is 9-3 in last dozen Cuzzi games behind plate.

-- TB-NY-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Hudson games.
-- Tor-Balt-- Over is 14-5 in last nineteen TWelke games.
-- Det-Clev-- Favorites (+$287) in five Muchlinski games this year.
-- A's-KC-- Underdogs (+$116) are 3-3 in last six Kellogg games.
-- Tex-Bos-- Underdogs (+$375) are 6-3 in last nine Darling games.
-- Chi-Min-- Under is 11-3 in last fourteen Iassogna games.
-- Sea-LAA-- Six of last seven Marquez games went over the total.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

COMPS:

1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Mariners over 8
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Athletics -115
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Twins under 9.5
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Astros -143
5. Gameday Network MLB - Nationals +120
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Rays +120
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Padres -135
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Rays over 8.5
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Dodgers -138
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Padres -135
11. John Morrison MLB - Blue Jays over 8.5
12. Tony Campone MLB - Cubs +145
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Reds under 8.5
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Cubs +145
15. VIP Action MLB - Padres -135
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Nationals over 9
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Twins -110
18. NY Players Club MLB - Padres under 7.5
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Dodgers -138
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Mets over 7

Pure Lock
Los Angeles Angels-145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

usa sports consultants

Dodgers (V.Padilla) at St Louis (J.Suppan) OVER 9 -105 - 1 unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals Saturday night.

Sunday it's the Nationals. The deficit is 330 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MJP Sports

NY YANKEES -130 Best Bet!
MILWAUKEE 155
SAN FRANCISCO 102

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Potsys Picks

SEATTLE 1.5 (-155)
MINNESOTA -105
KANSAS CITY 102
BALTIMORE 1.5 (-135)
PHILADELPHIA -157

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Investment Group

Todays Plays - Today we have 1 MLB Play

Toronto -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Sunday Baseball (3-Team Dog Parlay)

100* Play Kansas City (+100) over Oakland
Game starts at 2:10 PM EST

Kansas City pitcher, Brian Bannister has won 12 of the last 15 games when playing on a Sunday and he has also won 5 of the last 6 games as a home underdog of +100 or higher. Oakland has lost 21 of the last 30 road games when the line posted is between -100 to -125 and pitcher, Vin Mazzaro has lost 5 of the last 8 day games.

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100* Play Colorado (+120) over Cincinnati
Game starts at 1:10 PM EST

Cincinnati has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 14 games vs. Colorado. Colorado has won 8 of the last 11 games in the month of July and pitcher, Aaron Cook is 2-0 vs. Cincinnati over his career.

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100* Play Tampa Bay (+120) over New York
Game starts at 1:00 PM EST

David Price has won 15 of the last 17 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 14 of the last 16 day games. David Price is 2-0 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 2.39 and he is also 12-4 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.42.

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WNBA Basketball

50* Play Los Angeles (+6.5) over San Antonio
Game starts at 3:00 PM EST

San Antonio has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

 

[uga1018]

LUCKYSAMSPORTS

SAM BAMBINO

florida
cincinnati
boston

 

[yoders]

7/18 nsa

20 red sox-150
20 blue jays-140
20 phillies-165

 

[1drmain]

jeff benton sunday

0-2 yesterday minus 40 dimes or $520..overall 78-91-3 minus 240 dimes.

Jeff Benton Sunday's Action 25 DIME selection on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS and Vicente Padilla over the Cardinals and Jeff Suppan in a series finale at St. Louis. Los Angeles is a solid favarite of -130 to -145 both here in Vegas and offshore, so be sure to shop around and get the best of the number. Also, you must speceify both Padilla and Suppan as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!

10 DIME seleotion the HOUSTON ASTROS and Roy Oswalt over the Pirates and Paul Maholm. Houston is a -140 to -145 favorite in this contest, and again you must specify both starting pitchers. If either Oswalt or Maholm don’t start this game, this play is VOID!


Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t exactly come out strong to start the second half, losing the first three games of this series by scores of 7-1, 8-4 and 2-0 – and losing Manny Ramirez to yet another injury in the process. But it’s extramely difficult to sweep a four-game series in this sport, so certainly this is a strong percentage play on L.A.

But what pushes things over the top for the Dodgers is this pitching matchup. Vicente Padilla, who has certainly had his problems with consistency over the years, has been magnificent in his last four starts, allowing a total of just five runs, 17 hits and three walks in 28 2/3 innings (1.57 ERA). And although this solid run started with a 2-1 home loss to the Yankees, Padilla has since gone 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA, including a 7-0 beatdown of the Cubs last Sunday (he went a season-high eight innings).

Padilla was L.A.’s most reliaeble pitcher last October and he was on the mound in St. Louis for the clincher of a three-game divisional playoff sweep of the Cardinals, scattering four hits and a walk over seven shutout innings in a 5-1 victory. So in two career starts at Busch Stadium, Padilla has pitched 15 scoreless innings and surrendered just eight hits and one walk.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Jeff Suppan, who is 0-5 with a 6.55 ERA this season. The veteran right-hander has made seven starts – two with Milwaukee, five with St. Louis – and not once has he made it through six innings (and only once has he lasted longer than five innings). Over his last four starts, he’s 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA.

Finally, the most telling stat that desoribes the difference between these two pitchers is this: Padilla has allowed just 57 baserunners in 55 2/3 innings this season, and he’s held opponents to a .280 on-base percentage. Suppan has allowed 107 baserunners in 55 innings, and opponents are reaching base at a .425 clip!

Enough said! Take the Dodgers to finally get into the post-All Star break win column.


Astros

Two words: Roy Oswalt. The veteran right-hander has flat-out owned the Pirates in his career, going 15-7 with a 2.50 ERA in 28 career games (27 starts) against Pittsburgh. Oswalt’s most recent gem against the Bucs was also his most recent start. On July 8, Oswalt pitched a complete-game one-hitter, walking two and striking out eight in a 2-0 home victory. Throw in a 4-3 win on April 23, and Oswalt is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against Pittsburgh this season, giving up just two runs and five hits in 16 innings.

Since the start of the 2006 season, Oswalt has faced the Pirates 12 times and delivered 11 quality starts, with Houston going 8-4. In those 11 quality starts, Oswalt has surrendered a grand total of 10 earned runs in 77 2/3 innings (1.16 ERA).

One last point about Oswalt: Although he’s just 6-10 on the season (mainly due to the lack of run support), he sports a 3.08 ERA. And if you eliminate a 10-1 loss at Texas on June 27, Oswalt is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA on the road.

As for Pirates starter Paul Maholm, the words “below average” come to mind. He’s 5-7 with a 4.37 ERA overall, 3-5 with a 5.80 ERA at home, and over his last six starts, he’s got a 5.68 ERA, and the Pirates are just 1-5.

If that’s not enough to convince you to jump on Houston at this cheap price, this should do it: The Astros have won seven of eight against the Pirates this season (the last six wins by more than a run) and they’re 23-7 in the last 30 head-to-head clashes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEST HANDICAPPERS

4* 965 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (r) halladay,

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TOTALS 4 U

TOP PLAY
SD Padres OVER 7-

REGULAR PLAYS
Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9
Texas Rangers OVER 8-
Chicago White Sox OVER 9-
SF Giants UNDER 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PLATINUM PLAYS

TOP PLAY
NY Yankees

REGULAR PLAYS
Cincinnati Reds
KC Royals
Chicago White Sox
Philadelphia Phillies

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco +1.02 over NY METS

The Giants are dominating this four-game series and there’s no reason to expect that to stop here. First, the Mets are seeing BB’s and when you’re in an offensive funk, snapping out of it becomes more difficult which each passing game. The Mets have batted .174 in losing the first three games of this series and they were held scoreless in the first 24 innings of this series. Jonathan Sanchez has had trouble in two of his last three starts but so what. He’s allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts this season and he’s been outstanding at home. In fact, he’s allowed just 38 hits in 53 IP at home for a BAA of .200. He also has struck out 104 batters in 103 innings and faces a Mets team that has dropped six of seven and that’s still on its All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Giants are red-hot with five straight victories and 10 wins in its last 12 games. Over that stretch of a dozen games, the Giants lead the majors with 78 runs scored while the Mets have scored 38 times over that same stretch, which is 40 less runs than the Giants. Johan Santana is considered to be the Mets ace by many and he does have the stats to back that up but he’s also been one of the luckiest pitchers in the business. Santana has a strand-rate of 77.6% and that’s an incredibly high number that he simply can’t sustain. His groundball rate is also way down at 34% and those are two red flags to be sure. Santana’s 2.98 ERA looks damn sweet until you look at the 4.69 xERA that is hiding behind it. Santana's strikeout rate is declining, his walks are increasing and everything about him is a mirage and there are big corrections forthcoming in his numbers. Hopefully it starts here. Play: San Francisco +1.02 (Risking 2 units)

CINCINNATI –1½ +1.51 over Colorado

After losing nine straight to the Rockies, the Reds have won the first two games of this series with the Rockies scoring a total of three runs in the first two games. Now the Rocks will have to face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that’s not a favorable situation, especially when said pitcher is going good. Travis Wood is coming off a complete game, one-hitter in Philadelphia. In three starts, covering 20.2 innings, Wood has allowed just nine hits, walked just five and struck out 17. He has a WHIP of 0.68, a BAA of 1.27 and an ERA of 2.17. It’s a small sample size but one can’t argue his effectiveness thus far and he catches the Rocks at a very good time. Meanwhile, the Reds have seen plenty of Aaron Cook. In fact, Reds hitters have a combined 76 AB’s against Cook and they’re hitting .395 off him. The foursome of Rolen, Cabrera, Votto and Phillips has 20 hits in 49 AB’s against Cook. Cook is also 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.70 and a BAA of .314. Overall, he’s walked 40 and struck out 44. In 17 starts this season, Cook has three wins. Frankly, there’s nothing to like about Cook and facing the Reds in Cincinnati does nothing to change that. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).


Milwaukee +1.59 over ATLANTA

If Dave Bush and Randy Wolf can beat Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson there’s no reason why Manny Parra can’t beat Derek Lowe. In fact, this pitching match-up is by far the most favorable of them all. Manny Parra is very capable of a dominating performance. This guy is so close (yet so far) from becoming an elite pitcher and now he’ll face a Braves club that is under .500 against southpaws. Parra had a 4.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in June, marks that have kept some backers on the sideline. But an elevated 37% hit rate had a lot to do with his high WHIP. His base skills remind us why Parra was and still is a legit breakout candidate. He has a 47 % GB rate, which is an outstanding number and he also displays good control with his four pitches. Parra uses a split-fingered fastball, a change and curve (to go along with a fastball) and now he’s developing a fifth pitch, the slider to add to his repertoire. The Braves have scored just eight runs in the first three games of this set while the Brewers have scored 15 the last two days. In addition, Milwaukee has won five of its last six and will face the very beatable Lowe in this one. Lowe’s numbers get worse and worse as the game progresses. He’s awful the second time through line-ups and his numbers fall into a black hole (6.29 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP) the third time through. Lowe is no youngster (he’s 37) and his skills continue to decline. His ground ball rate is declining, his walks are increasing and his strikeouts are declining as well. Those are all signs of age catching up to him, as we’ve actually seen a groundball decline in each of the last four seasons with this year being his lowest. Lowe is in the midst of a four-year 60 million dollar contract and given the chance, the Braves would dump this guy in a heartbeat. He could be in a rough second half. Play: Milwaukee +1.59 (Risking 2 units).


Chicago +1.00 over MINNESOTA

Well, you can really never be sure how Freddy Garcia will perform but this has absolutely nothing to do with him. Instead, this one is all about not laying a single penny to wager against Nick Blackburn and before we explain, note that the South Side makes contact more than any team in the league. This past March, the Twins locked up Nick Blackburn with a four-year, $14 million contract. The deal covers his final pre-arbitration season in 2010, his three arbitration years and includes an $8 million option for 2014, Blackburn’s first season of free agent eligibility. We mention that because the only reason he’s not in the minors is that ridiculous contract. Blackburn established himself as a solid rotation cog over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, using surgical command (1.81 BB/9) to compensate for a paltry punch out rate (4.4 K/9). His ERA over that period was 4.38, and his xERA was 4.52. In 2010, The Twins expected more of the same from Blackburn. Instead, the 28-year-old has been battered for a 6.40 ERA in 97 innings. That’s the second-highest mark among qualified starters. Granted, Blackburn’s ERA does overstate the depth of his struggles — his BABIP is .324 (.314 career average), his rate of stranding base runners is 66.2% and his home run per fly ball rate is 14.8% (10.7%). But even so, his XERA has ballooned to 5.44. Blackburn’s already-low K rate has nosedived into Kirk Rueter-esque territory. He’s striking out just 3.15 batters per nine frames, by far the lowest among qualified starters (Aaron Cook is second, at 3.97 K/9). Nick’s swinging strike rate, 6.5% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, sits at an MLB-low 2.9% (Rodrigo Lopez is next, at four percent; the MLB average is 8-9%). His overall contact rate has spiked, from 86.7% in ’08 and 88.1% in ’09 to a MLB-high 93.7% this season. Fact is, Blackburn seldom misses a bat and his walks are increasing. He’s the least appealing favorite in all of baseball and he’s an instant fade when he’s the chalk. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Billy Irish
3-0 since all star break
Philadelphia Phillies -165

 

[gambledawgs]

anyone see valentino

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Savannah Sports

MLB:
5 (*****) LA Dodgers -137

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday ML Baseball

CINCINNATI WOOD -L -140 over Colorado (1:10 et)