THE WINNING ADDICT
GUARANTEED PICK:
Cleveland Indians -125 (Risk 7.5 units to win 6 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
This Indians team needs a win to finish out their surprising first half on a strong note, and this matchup with Toronto--a team that has perennially struggled in their ballpark--is a great one to finish strong. Carlos Carrasco was lights out in his starts leading up to his last one, one in which he was hammered by the Yankees. Anyone can have a bad start against the Yanks--just looking at their run total for this season makes it a little more acceptable. Carrasco has a solid mid-90s fastball with great run and good downward movement that allows him to induce lots of double plays. This Toronto team hits into a ton of twin killings, and I just don't see them scoring enough runs to support Bret Cecil, a guy that while he had a nice outing in his last start vs Boston--quite simply isn't very good. The Indians have had a nice amount of success vs lefties this season, and I expect that to continue today vs a team that comes in with a 13-23 daytime record. Take the Indians as our guarantee to win 6 units.
PREMIUM PICK 1:
Washington Nationals -132 (Risk 6.6 units to win 5 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
The Nationals had a great run winning close games at home, but the last couple times out they have been on the wrong end of the one run games. They enter this one riding a 3 game losing streak, but they send their stud to the mound today trying to break the losing streak and give them some momentum heading into the break. I love Jordan Zimmerman's game, as he is one of the few young power pitchers who consistently keeps the ball down in the zone. When the pitch is 93-94, most pitchers like to elevate the ball to get strikeouts and flyouts. Zimmerman keeps it down and gets lots of ground balls, and I must admit I like these pitchers because I was one of them when I played college baseball. (Yes, sadly a torn rotator cuff kept me from pitching my junior year in college) Anyway, Jhoulys Chacin has had tons of control problems, and that will hurt him today vs a desperate team who enters the game with confidence as their ace is on the hill. We went with an ace to stop a losing streak yesterday in Chris Carpenter and it worked out for us--even though it was not because of his doing, and the Cardinals kept fighting against a tired and weakened Arizona bullpen. Take the Nats and pick up 5 units (5% of roll).
PREMIUM PICK 2:
Pittsburgh Pirates -125 (Risk 6.25 units to win 5 units) 1:05 P.M. EST
Picking against Ramon Ortiz isn't a tough call for me, and it is even easier when you have one of the best home pitchers in baseball opposing him. Paul Maholm is much better than his career record indicates, but road troubles and run support have been his undoing for years--and even this season when the Pirates are rolling. The Pirates are going to take this series from the lowly Cubs and give themselves a fighting chance to win this division as we enter the 2nd half. The ballpark will be packed once again today at PNC, and this club is ready to win. Yes, they have tons of youth on the field, but they are playing with tons of energy, they will get a great outing from Maholm today, and flat out I expect a solid win over the worst team in baseball outside of Houston. Pick up 5 units with Pittsburgh.
GUARANTEED PICK:
Cleveland Indians -125 (Risk 7.5 units to win 6 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
This Indians team needs a win to finish out their surprising first half on a strong note, and this matchup with Toronto--a team that has perennially struggled in their ballpark--is a great one to finish strong. Carlos Carrasco was lights out in his starts leading up to his last one, one in which he was hammered by the Yankees. Anyone can have a bad start against the Yanks--just looking at their run total for this season makes it a little more acceptable. Carrasco has a solid mid-90s fastball with great run and good downward movement that allows him to induce lots of double plays. This Toronto team hits into a ton of twin killings, and I just don't see them scoring enough runs to support Bret Cecil, a guy that while he had a nice outing in his last start vs Boston--quite simply isn't very good. The Indians have had a nice amount of success vs lefties this season, and I expect that to continue today vs a team that comes in with a 13-23 daytime record. Take the Indians as our guarantee to win 6 units.
PREMIUM PICK 1:
Washington Nationals -132 (Risk 6.6 units to win 5 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
The Nationals had a great run winning close games at home, but the last couple times out they have been on the wrong end of the one run games. They enter this one riding a 3 game losing streak, but they send their stud to the mound today trying to break the losing streak and give them some momentum heading into the break. I love Jordan Zimmerman's game, as he is one of the few young power pitchers who consistently keeps the ball down in the zone. When the pitch is 93-94, most pitchers like to elevate the ball to get strikeouts and flyouts. Zimmerman keeps it down and gets lots of ground balls, and I must admit I like these pitchers because I was one of them when I played college baseball. (Yes, sadly a torn rotator cuff kept me from pitching my junior year in college) Anyway, Jhoulys Chacin has had tons of control problems, and that will hurt him today vs a desperate team who enters the game with confidence as their ace is on the hill. We went with an ace to stop a losing streak yesterday in Chris Carpenter and it worked out for us--even though it was not because of his doing, and the Cardinals kept fighting against a tired and weakened Arizona bullpen. Take the Nats and pick up 5 units (5% of roll).
PREMIUM PICK 2:
Pittsburgh Pirates -125 (Risk 6.25 units to win 5 units) 1:05 P.M. EST
Picking against Ramon Ortiz isn't a tough call for me, and it is even easier when you have one of the best home pitchers in baseball opposing him. Paul Maholm is much better than his career record indicates, but road troubles and run support have been his undoing for years--and even this season when the Pirates are rolling. The Pirates are going to take this series from the lowly Cubs and give themselves a fighting chance to win this division as we enter the 2nd half. The ballpark will be packed once again today at PNC, and this club is ready to win. Yes, they have tons of youth on the field, but they are playing with tons of energy, they will get a great outing from Maholm today, and flat out I expect a solid win over the worst team in baseball outside of Houston. Pick up 5 units with Pittsburgh.
