COMPS:
Dave Cokin
Sunday Bonus Play is the Giants
JIM FEIST COMP
(911) COLORADO ROCKIES
(912) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take "(912) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS"
San Francisco plays its best baseball at home, while Colorado struggles on the road. The Rockies go with Jason Hammel with the team 0-6 his last 6 starts, with opponents hitting .289 off him on the road. Hammel suffered a loss Monday as the Rockies fell to the Dodgers, 7-1. He pitched 4.2 innings and allowed seven runs, 10 hits and one walk to go along with two strikeouts. Ryan Vogelsong (3-1, 1.77 ERA) has been hot for the Giants, with a 45-13 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 innings. The Rockies are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings and 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco. Play the Giants.
Jack Clayton
Bonus Play
Sport: MLB
Game: Rays at Mariners
Pick: Mariners
Reason: Tampa Bay is 3,000 miles from home and playing like it. The Mariners are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play Seattle.
Golden contender
On Sunday the MLB Bonus Play is on the San Diego Padres. Game 916 at 6:35 eastern. The Padres fit a complicated system that has cashed 33 of 38 times. We want to play on home favorites of -140 or more off a home favored win at -140 or more scoring 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base with 1 or less errors committed, vs an opponent off a road dog loss at +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base and had 1 error in the game. The Padres are 15-5 as a home favorite in this range the last 3 years and have won 15 of 22 day games. Houston is 2-7 on the road when the total is 7 or less. The Padres have the pitching advantage with Latos over Lyles and should take this one. Line is too high to unit rate, For a Bonus Play though its definitely worthy.
TOM STRYKER COMP
Chicago White Sox
Off last night's 4-2 home loss to Detroit, I'm going to jump all over the Pale Hose on Sunday afternoon.
Grabbing the pill for the White Sox will be veteran right-hander Jake Peavy. In his last three starts against the Red Sox, Rangers and Indians, Peavy has been right on the money allowing just five earned runs and 14 hits in 19.0 innings of work. That's good enough for a 2-0 record and a respectable 2.37 ERA. Jake's strikeout-to-walk ratio of 12-1 is noteworthy too. In his lone home start inside The Cell, No. 44 tossed a gem against Cleveland allowing no earned runs and three hits through 9.0 frames.
Blackwell, Oklahoma product Brad Penny gets the call for visiting Detroit. In his last two starts against the Twins and Pirates, Penny has struggled something fierce allowing 10 earned runs and 16 hits through 11.2 innings. That's bad enough for an elevated 7.72 ERA! Brad's efforts on the road have been awful too. With 28.0 innings completed on foreign soil, No. 31 has been hammered for 24 earned runs and 30 hits. That adds up to a nasty 1-3 mark and a pitiful 7.71 ERA!
Back on April 23rd, Penny tossed a gem against the Sox allowing no earned runs and one hit in 9.0 innings of work. The Tigers cruised in that contest 9-0. The outcome of this battle will be much different. Detroit has dropped 39 of its last 54 on the road against a right-handed starter while the ChiSox have nailed eight of their last 10 coming off a straight up loss. Take Chicago with Peavy. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
BIG AL COMP
At 1:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. The Rangers go for a series sweep of the Indians today and this would be big for this team not only because it will be a four-game series sweep instead of the normal three games, but because the Rangers are on the road against a first place team and one that owns one of the best home records in all of baseball. And not to forget that the Rangers are in a pretty tight division race themselves with the resurgent Los Angeles Angels breathing down their neck. Cleveland righthander Mitch Talbot was the unfortunate pitcher of record in the Indians humiliating 14-2 loss at the hands of the Red Sox on May 25th. It was Talbot's first game off the DL and he had a good start that followed that debacle six days later on the road. Talbot continues to have a very poor strikeouts-to-walks ratio that really hurts him against big offensive clubs like the Red Sox and of course, the Rangers represent the same sort of obstacle. C.J. Wilson had that same problem last season - although he still put up great numbers in all other categories - but so far in 2011, he's cut down on his walks and increased his strikeout ratio so he could be on track to have an even better season than the one he broke out with last year. Series don't get more lopsided than this one, with the Rangers winning 15 of the last 18 meetings. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
SCOTT SPREITZER COMP
I'm playing the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Blue Jay southpaw Jo-Jo Reyes finally won a decision last time out, tossing a complete game en route to an 11-1 win over Cleveland. But I expect his personal win streak to end at one game. Two situations that Reyes has not exactly excelled in are pitching on the road and pitching under the sun. Reyes is 2-12 in his last 27 away appearances, sporting a hefty 6.37 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a .308 BAA. Believe it or not, his numbers are even worse in 20 daytime outings where his ERA is over a full run higher than his road ERA. This isn't good news for a Toronto team that I expect to be hard-pressed to score runs on Sunday. The Jays will face Baltimore hurler Jeremy Guthrie. The righthander hasn't allowed a single earned run in two of his last three starts. Guthrie owns a strong 1.13 WHIP in 15 starts against the Jays and a 1.18 WHIP in seven home appearances this season. His only "hold-up" is that he hasn't received much run support. But with Reyes on the hill, I expect that situation to change for the better. The O's are on a 4-0 run at home against southpaws, while the Jays are just 1-5 in Reyes' last six road starts. Look for Guthrie to break through against Toronto and for the Orioles to win the rubber match of the 3-game set. I'm laying the price with the Orioles on Sunday afternoon. Thanks! GL! Scott.
MARC LAWRENCE COMP
Play On: Texas w/Wilson vs Talbot
Note: When the Rangers send C.J. Wilson to the mound against Mitch Talbot and the Indians in Cleveland in the finale of their three-game series at Progressive Park Sunday afternoon Texas will do so knowing Wilson is 5-0 in his last five starts during June. Meanwhile, Talbot enters the game with a huge home-road dichotomy this season where his 12.28 ERA at home pales in comparison to his 0.61 ERA on the road. With Wilson in commanding KW form with six walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Rangers to wrap up successful visit to Cleveland here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
Dave Cokin
Sunday Bonus Play is the Giants
JIM FEIST COMP
(911) COLORADO ROCKIES
(912) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take "(912) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS"
San Francisco plays its best baseball at home, while Colorado struggles on the road. The Rockies go with Jason Hammel with the team 0-6 his last 6 starts, with opponents hitting .289 off him on the road. Hammel suffered a loss Monday as the Rockies fell to the Dodgers, 7-1. He pitched 4.2 innings and allowed seven runs, 10 hits and one walk to go along with two strikeouts. Ryan Vogelsong (3-1, 1.77 ERA) has been hot for the Giants, with a 45-13 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 innings. The Rockies are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings and 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco. Play the Giants.
Jack Clayton
Bonus Play
Sport: MLB
Game: Rays at Mariners
Pick: Mariners
Reason: Tampa Bay is 3,000 miles from home and playing like it. The Mariners are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play Seattle.
Golden contender
On Sunday the MLB Bonus Play is on the San Diego Padres. Game 916 at 6:35 eastern. The Padres fit a complicated system that has cashed 33 of 38 times. We want to play on home favorites of -140 or more off a home favored win at -140 or more scoring 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base with 1 or less errors committed, vs an opponent off a road dog loss at +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base and had 1 error in the game. The Padres are 15-5 as a home favorite in this range the last 3 years and have won 15 of 22 day games. Houston is 2-7 on the road when the total is 7 or less. The Padres have the pitching advantage with Latos over Lyles and should take this one. Line is too high to unit rate, For a Bonus Play though its definitely worthy.
TOM STRYKER COMP
Chicago White Sox
Off last night's 4-2 home loss to Detroit, I'm going to jump all over the Pale Hose on Sunday afternoon.
Grabbing the pill for the White Sox will be veteran right-hander Jake Peavy. In his last three starts against the Red Sox, Rangers and Indians, Peavy has been right on the money allowing just five earned runs and 14 hits in 19.0 innings of work. That's good enough for a 2-0 record and a respectable 2.37 ERA. Jake's strikeout-to-walk ratio of 12-1 is noteworthy too. In his lone home start inside The Cell, No. 44 tossed a gem against Cleveland allowing no earned runs and three hits through 9.0 frames.
Blackwell, Oklahoma product Brad Penny gets the call for visiting Detroit. In his last two starts against the Twins and Pirates, Penny has struggled something fierce allowing 10 earned runs and 16 hits through 11.2 innings. That's bad enough for an elevated 7.72 ERA! Brad's efforts on the road have been awful too. With 28.0 innings completed on foreign soil, No. 31 has been hammered for 24 earned runs and 30 hits. That adds up to a nasty 1-3 mark and a pitiful 7.71 ERA!
Back on April 23rd, Penny tossed a gem against the Sox allowing no earned runs and one hit in 9.0 innings of work. The Tigers cruised in that contest 9-0. The outcome of this battle will be much different. Detroit has dropped 39 of its last 54 on the road against a right-handed starter while the ChiSox have nailed eight of their last 10 coming off a straight up loss. Take Chicago with Peavy. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
BIG AL COMP
At 1:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. The Rangers go for a series sweep of the Indians today and this would be big for this team not only because it will be a four-game series sweep instead of the normal three games, but because the Rangers are on the road against a first place team and one that owns one of the best home records in all of baseball. And not to forget that the Rangers are in a pretty tight division race themselves with the resurgent Los Angeles Angels breathing down their neck. Cleveland righthander Mitch Talbot was the unfortunate pitcher of record in the Indians humiliating 14-2 loss at the hands of the Red Sox on May 25th. It was Talbot's first game off the DL and he had a good start that followed that debacle six days later on the road. Talbot continues to have a very poor strikeouts-to-walks ratio that really hurts him against big offensive clubs like the Red Sox and of course, the Rangers represent the same sort of obstacle. C.J. Wilson had that same problem last season - although he still put up great numbers in all other categories - but so far in 2011, he's cut down on his walks and increased his strikeout ratio so he could be on track to have an even better season than the one he broke out with last year. Series don't get more lopsided than this one, with the Rangers winning 15 of the last 18 meetings. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
SCOTT SPREITZER COMP
I'm playing the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Blue Jay southpaw Jo-Jo Reyes finally won a decision last time out, tossing a complete game en route to an 11-1 win over Cleveland. But I expect his personal win streak to end at one game. Two situations that Reyes has not exactly excelled in are pitching on the road and pitching under the sun. Reyes is 2-12 in his last 27 away appearances, sporting a hefty 6.37 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a .308 BAA. Believe it or not, his numbers are even worse in 20 daytime outings where his ERA is over a full run higher than his road ERA. This isn't good news for a Toronto team that I expect to be hard-pressed to score runs on Sunday. The Jays will face Baltimore hurler Jeremy Guthrie. The righthander hasn't allowed a single earned run in two of his last three starts. Guthrie owns a strong 1.13 WHIP in 15 starts against the Jays and a 1.18 WHIP in seven home appearances this season. His only "hold-up" is that he hasn't received much run support. But with Reyes on the hill, I expect that situation to change for the better. The O's are on a 4-0 run at home against southpaws, while the Jays are just 1-5 in Reyes' last six road starts. Look for Guthrie to break through against Toronto and for the Orioles to win the rubber match of the 3-game set. I'm laying the price with the Orioles on Sunday afternoon. Thanks! GL! Scott.
MARC LAWRENCE COMP
Play On: Texas w/Wilson vs Talbot
Note: When the Rangers send C.J. Wilson to the mound against Mitch Talbot and the Indians in Cleveland in the finale of their three-game series at Progressive Park Sunday afternoon Texas will do so knowing Wilson is 5-0 in his last five starts during June. Meanwhile, Talbot enters the game with a huge home-road dichotomy this season where his 12.28 ERA at home pales in comparison to his 0.61 ERA on the road. With Wilson in commanding KW form with six walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Rangers to wrap up successful visit to Cleveland here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
WNBA Dunkel
New York at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of a New York team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 Sunday game. Atlanta is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7). Here are all of today's picks.
SUNDAY, JUNE 5
Game 601-602: New York at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.025; Atlanta 122.002
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 168
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Over
Game 603-604: Los Angeles at Minnesota (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.863; Minnesota 111.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 155
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4 1/2); Under
New York at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of a New York team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 Sunday game. Atlanta is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7). Here are all of today's picks.
SUNDAY, JUNE 5
Game 601-602: New York at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.025; Atlanta 122.002
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 168
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Over
Game 603-604: Los Angeles at Minnesota (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.863; Minnesota 111.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 155
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4 1/2); Under
NBA
Write-Up
Sunday, June 5
Miami let the Mavericks back into the series, as Dallas outscored them 22-5 in last 6:20 to steal Game 2 and even series. Miami is 4-3 on road in playoffs; their bench was -22 in Game 2, after being +20 in opener; they are shooting 26-83 (31.3%) so far in series and Bosh is just 9-34, so if Miami is going to win on road, they'll need contributions from someone other than James/Wade. Mavs were +11 on boards in Game 2 after being outrebounded by 10 in opener- their bench was 8-20 from floor (4-22 in Game 1)- they survived 18 turnovers by shooting 48%, 11% higher than first game. Dallas is 6-1 at home in playoffs, losing Game 2 to Thunder.
Write-Up
Sunday, June 5
Miami let the Mavericks back into the series, as Dallas outscored them 22-5 in last 6:20 to steal Game 2 and even series. Miami is 4-3 on road in playoffs; their bench was -22 in Game 2, after being +20 in opener; they are shooting 26-83 (31.3%) so far in series and Bosh is just 9-34, so if Miami is going to win on road, they'll need contributions from someone other than James/Wade. Mavs were +11 on boards in Game 2 after being outrebounded by 10 in opener- their bench was 8-20 from floor (4-22 in Game 1)- they survived 18 turnovers by shooting 48%, 11% higher than first game. Dallas is 6-1 at home in playoffs, losing Game 2 to Thunder.
MLB
Write-Up
Sunday, June 5
Hot pitchers
-- Billingsley has a 2.85 RA in his last six starts.
-- ASanchez is 4-0, 1.15 in his last five starts.
-- Halladay is 5-2, 2.59 in his last eight starts. McDonald is 3-1, 2.43 in his last seven starts.
-- Zambrano is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 5-1, 2.17 in his last nine starts.
-- Latos is 2-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts. Prospect Lyles allowed two runs in seven IP in his first '11 start.
-- Vogelsong is 2-1, 0.86 in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 1-1, 2.20 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 1-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Reyes is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Anderson is 2-1, 2.78 in his last four road starts.
-- Francis is 2-1, 3.54 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.35 in his last three starts.
-- Bedard is 3-0, 1.60 in his last six starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Narveson allowed 11 runs in 7.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Carpenter is 0-3, 5.61 in his last four starts.
-- Wood has a 5.19 RA in his last three starts.
-- Marquis has a 6.37 RA in his last six starts.
-- Hammel is 0-4, 6.25 in his last five starts.
-- THudson is 0-2, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Talbot is 0-1, 12.27 in his two home starts (2-0, 0.61 on road).
-- Guthrie is 1-4, 5.14 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey was 0-3, 10.26 in his last three starts before going on DL.
-- Duensing is 0-5, 7.58 in his last six starts.
-- Penny is 1-3, 7.71 in five road starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-2, 5.96 in his last four starts.
-- WDavis is 0-3, 7.89 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies' last eight road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Citi Field.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Cincinnati's last thirteen home games.
-- Under is 9-4 in Milwaukee's last thoirteen road games.
-- Nine of last thirteen St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Kennedy starts stayed under the total. Nine of last ten Marquis starts went over.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen games at Petco Park.
-- Under is 15-6 in Colorado's last twenty-one road games.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Boston home games went over the total.
-- Five White Sox' last six home games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in Angels' last seven home games.
-- Four of last five games at Safeco Field stayed under the total.
Hot Teams
-- Milwaukee is 11-3 in last 14 games, 6-12 in last 18 on road.
-- Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won four of their last six road games.
-- Cincinnati is 10-4 in its last fourteen home games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Arizona won 18 of its last 22 games.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.
-- San Diego won six of its last eight games. Astros won six of their last nine road games, but lost last two.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games. White Sox won six of their last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won 10 of their last 14 home games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last nine road games.
-- Rangers won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six games.
-- Mariners won 13 of their last 17 games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost five of their last six games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Marlins lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Colorado lost 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Cleveland lost eight of its last eleven games, five in row at home.
-- Orioles lost six of their last eight games.
-- Oakland lost its last five games, outscored 36-19.
-- Kansas City lost 11 of its last 14 games. Minnesota lost ten of its last 15 games.
-- Angels are 10-12 in their last 22 home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost 10 of its last 15 games.
Umpires
-- Colo-SF-- Home team won four of last five Muchlinski games.
-- Chi-StL-- Over is 6-0-2 in last eight Barrett games; road teams won his last four games.
-- LA-Cin-- Home team won seven of eight Knight games.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Three of last four Hernandez games stayed under.
-- Mil-Fla-- Seven of last nine Meals games went over the total.
-- Atl-NY-- Home side won seven of last nine Culbreth games.
-- Wsh-Az-- Favorites won Drake's last six games behind the dish.
-- Hst-SD-- Over is 10-1-1 in Holbrook games this season.
-- TB-Sea-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Joyce games; underdogs are 7-2 in his last nine games behind the dish.
-- Tex-Clev-- Last six Timmons games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-Balt-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Danley games.
-- Det-Chi-- Four of last five Reynolds games stayed under total.
-- Min-KC-- Road team won three of last four Blaser games.
-- A's-Bos-- Favorites won five of last six Vanover games.
-- NY-LA-- Home team won seven of last nine BWelke games.
Write-Up
Sunday, June 5
Hot pitchers
-- Billingsley has a 2.85 RA in his last six starts.
-- ASanchez is 4-0, 1.15 in his last five starts.
-- Halladay is 5-2, 2.59 in his last eight starts. McDonald is 3-1, 2.43 in his last seven starts.
-- Zambrano is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 5-1, 2.17 in his last nine starts.
-- Latos is 2-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts. Prospect Lyles allowed two runs in seven IP in his first '11 start.
-- Vogelsong is 2-1, 0.86 in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 1-1, 2.20 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 1-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Reyes is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Anderson is 2-1, 2.78 in his last four road starts.
-- Francis is 2-1, 3.54 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.35 in his last three starts.
-- Bedard is 3-0, 1.60 in his last six starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Narveson allowed 11 runs in 7.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Carpenter is 0-3, 5.61 in his last four starts.
-- Wood has a 5.19 RA in his last three starts.
-- Marquis has a 6.37 RA in his last six starts.
-- Hammel is 0-4, 6.25 in his last five starts.
-- THudson is 0-2, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Talbot is 0-1, 12.27 in his two home starts (2-0, 0.61 on road).
-- Guthrie is 1-4, 5.14 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey was 0-3, 10.26 in his last three starts before going on DL.
-- Duensing is 0-5, 7.58 in his last six starts.
-- Penny is 1-3, 7.71 in five road starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-2, 5.96 in his last four starts.
-- WDavis is 0-3, 7.89 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies' last eight road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Citi Field.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Cincinnati's last thirteen home games.
-- Under is 9-4 in Milwaukee's last thoirteen road games.
-- Nine of last thirteen St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Kennedy starts stayed under the total. Nine of last ten Marquis starts went over.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen games at Petco Park.
-- Under is 15-6 in Colorado's last twenty-one road games.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Boston home games went over the total.
-- Five White Sox' last six home games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in Angels' last seven home games.
-- Four of last five games at Safeco Field stayed under the total.
Hot Teams
-- Milwaukee is 11-3 in last 14 games, 6-12 in last 18 on road.
-- Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won four of their last six road games.
-- Cincinnati is 10-4 in its last fourteen home games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Arizona won 18 of its last 22 games.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.
-- San Diego won six of its last eight games. Astros won six of their last nine road games, but lost last two.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games. White Sox won six of their last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won 10 of their last 14 home games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last nine road games.
-- Rangers won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six games.
-- Mariners won 13 of their last 17 games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost five of their last six games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Marlins lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Colorado lost 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Cleveland lost eight of its last eleven games, five in row at home.
-- Orioles lost six of their last eight games.
-- Oakland lost its last five games, outscored 36-19.
-- Kansas City lost 11 of its last 14 games. Minnesota lost ten of its last 15 games.
-- Angels are 10-12 in their last 22 home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost 10 of its last 15 games.
Umpires
-- Colo-SF-- Home team won four of last five Muchlinski games.
-- Chi-StL-- Over is 6-0-2 in last eight Barrett games; road teams won his last four games.
-- LA-Cin-- Home team won seven of eight Knight games.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Three of last four Hernandez games stayed under.
-- Mil-Fla-- Seven of last nine Meals games went over the total.
-- Atl-NY-- Home side won seven of last nine Culbreth games.
-- Wsh-Az-- Favorites won Drake's last six games behind the dish.
-- Hst-SD-- Over is 10-1-1 in Holbrook games this season.
-- TB-Sea-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Joyce games; underdogs are 7-2 in his last nine games behind the dish.
-- Tex-Clev-- Last six Timmons games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-Balt-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Danley games.
-- Det-Chi-- Four of last five Reynolds games stayed under total.
-- Min-KC-- Road team won three of last four Blaser games.
-- A's-Bos-- Favorites won five of last six Vanover games.
-- NY-LA-- Home team won seven of last nine BWelke games.
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Philadelphia (-185) over Pittsburgh (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST
Philadelphia pitcher, Roy Halladay has won 9 of the last 10 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 8 of the last 9 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Roy Halladay has an ERA of 2.43 in road games this season and he has an ERA of 1.17 vs. Pittsburgh over his career.
Play Arizona (-160) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Arizona has won 10 of the last 12 games and they have also won 14 of the last 15 home games as a favorite of -150 to -200.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Play San Diego (-165) over Houston (Bonus)
MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Philadelphia (-185) over Pittsburgh (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST
Philadelphia pitcher, Roy Halladay has won 9 of the last 10 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 8 of the last 9 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Roy Halladay has an ERA of 2.43 in road games this season and he has an ERA of 1.17 vs. Pittsburgh over his career.
Play Arizona (-160) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Arizona has won 10 of the last 12 games and they have also won 14 of the last 15 home games as a favorite of -150 to -200.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Play San Diego (-165) over Houston (Bonus)
EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:
Blue Jays (+129),
Twins (+142),
Tigers (+139),
Nationals (+151)
GAME OF THE WEEK MLB: Marlins [-137] versus Brewers (1.5 Units) - The Marlins are 16-8, +8 units off a loss. Surprising because they've lost three games in a row! LOL. But that isn't really why we're betting on them. Teams in a slump that defy the odds tend to continue their downward trend and can especially disappoint when they are a favorite. BUT our pick is based on the fact that they have double one run loss revenge against these Brewers. And they have lost three straight games by 1 run. Believe me, they want a win today. History points in their favor. Teams with double one run loss fare very well -- specifically if they are favorite in a nondivisional rivalry game. Makes sense. If they are favorite, it means they have the pitching matchups / home-road factors in their advantage. Check and check. Narveson is the most losingest pitcher on the Brewers. All their pitchers have either broken even or won money except for Narveson. He is -5.7 units in his starts. Perfect position for these Marlins. We are going to take this game listed pitcher Narveson AND we are going to take it at 1.5 units.
NBA
Heat +2.5 over Mavs (1.0 Units) - The Mavs are the fan's favorite in this series. And they shocked us in Game 2 by coming back from a 15 point deficit. We won the bet but it only overshadows a major flaw with these Mavs. They are struggling getting past the Heat. Sure they did it in the last few minutes of the game but you cannot expect that to happen for all 48 minutes again. Even at home. The Heat are exerting themselves as the better team and they will have single game revenge and boy what revenge it is. 62% of betting money is on these Mavs but the spread hasn't moved beyond -2.5. Sounds like a Vegas trap to me.
Our systems say to go for:
Blue Jays (+129),
Twins (+142),
Tigers (+139),
Nationals (+151)
GAME OF THE WEEK MLB: Marlins [-137] versus Brewers (1.5 Units) - The Marlins are 16-8, +8 units off a loss. Surprising because they've lost three games in a row! LOL. But that isn't really why we're betting on them. Teams in a slump that defy the odds tend to continue their downward trend and can especially disappoint when they are a favorite. BUT our pick is based on the fact that they have double one run loss revenge against these Brewers. And they have lost three straight games by 1 run. Believe me, they want a win today. History points in their favor. Teams with double one run loss fare very well -- specifically if they are favorite in a nondivisional rivalry game. Makes sense. If they are favorite, it means they have the pitching matchups / home-road factors in their advantage. Check and check. Narveson is the most losingest pitcher on the Brewers. All their pitchers have either broken even or won money except for Narveson. He is -5.7 units in his starts. Perfect position for these Marlins. We are going to take this game listed pitcher Narveson AND we are going to take it at 1.5 units.
NBA
Heat +2.5 over Mavs (1.0 Units) - The Mavs are the fan's favorite in this series. And they shocked us in Game 2 by coming back from a 15 point deficit. We won the bet but it only overshadows a major flaw with these Mavs. They are struggling getting past the Heat. Sure they did it in the last few minutes of the game but you cannot expect that to happen for all 48 minutes again. Even at home. The Heat are exerting themselves as the better team and they will have single game revenge and boy what revenge it is. 62% of betting money is on these Mavs but the spread hasn't moved beyond -2.5. Sounds like a Vegas trap to me.
Dave Essler | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 902 NYM (+120) Bookmaker.com vs 901 ATL
Analysis: I really, really, think that Hudson is way over valued here. I have watched the Braves closely, and yes, he had a great last start, but that was at home against the lighter hitting Padres. This is only his second outing on the road in well over a month, and the last one was against the Angels where he was literally rocked.
And of course the Mets have seen tons of him, and they've hit .310 in almost 200 at bats. Beltran has four bombs, Reyes has a couple, Bay has one, and Pagan is 8-15. That is more than enough for me to think the the Mets will score some runs.
It's always tough for me to back a knuckle ball pitcher, but at least we don't care how many pitches he throws. And Chipper Jones is expected to rest today, which doesn't hurt our cause. Jordan Schaefer is questionable, so at best he's nicked up. Prado and Uggla are a combined 0-18 against him, while Hinske is 2-16.Gonzalez is 3-8 which did surprise me, but it's going to take more than a run or two to win this game.
Obviously I trust the Braves bullpen more than the Mets, especially lately, but at least they'd show signs yesterday and didn't need to waste many pitches with the effort Dillon Gee gave them.
So, in the end we have the better offense, and lately the better pitcher, the home team on ESPN off of a shutout win. Scary for me to back Dickey, but as a home underdog this is the right play, and all signs point to the fact that the Mets SHOULD win!
Free Pick: 908 - Pittsbutgh +1.5 -105
double-dime bet 902 NYM (+120) Bookmaker.com vs 901 ATL
Analysis: I really, really, think that Hudson is way over valued here. I have watched the Braves closely, and yes, he had a great last start, but that was at home against the lighter hitting Padres. This is only his second outing on the road in well over a month, and the last one was against the Angels where he was literally rocked.
And of course the Mets have seen tons of him, and they've hit .310 in almost 200 at bats. Beltran has four bombs, Reyes has a couple, Bay has one, and Pagan is 8-15. That is more than enough for me to think the the Mets will score some runs.
It's always tough for me to back a knuckle ball pitcher, but at least we don't care how many pitches he throws. And Chipper Jones is expected to rest today, which doesn't hurt our cause. Jordan Schaefer is questionable, so at best he's nicked up. Prado and Uggla are a combined 0-18 against him, while Hinske is 2-16.Gonzalez is 3-8 which did surprise me, but it's going to take more than a run or two to win this game.
Obviously I trust the Braves bullpen more than the Mets, especially lately, but at least they'd show signs yesterday and didn't need to waste many pitches with the effort Dillon Gee gave them.
So, in the end we have the better offense, and lately the better pitcher, the home team on ESPN off of a shutout win. Scary for me to back Dickey, but as a home underdog this is the right play, and all signs point to the fact that the Mets SHOULD win!
Free Pick: 908 - Pittsbutgh +1.5 -105
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +119 over DALLAS
After watching the first two games of this series, one really has to wonder how the Mav’s are going to win the series. They were clearly outplayed in both games and they’re fortunate that the Heat “let up” after a three-pointer put them up 15 with six minutes to go. That’s not going to happen again. It was a good lesson for Miami that taught them you have to play hard for 48 minutes no matter what. The Mav’s are a perimeter shooting team. Rarely do they drive to the hole so when those shots aren’t falling they end up giving the Heat big runs. What we’re seeing is Dallas getting weaker and Miami getting stronger. The Heat are making all the right adjustments and they have the luxury of sitting LeBron, D-Wade or Bosh while the other two remain on the floor. They drive to the basket almost every possession and so far we’ve seen a ton of easy buckets. Having James and Wade on the same team is almost unfair. Yeah, Miami is cocky and everyone loves to root against them but let’s call a spade a spade. Dallas has to play a flawless game and hit a way higher percentage to even have a remote chance because they’re going to get badly outrebounded and they’re going to get slaughtered in points in the paint. Dallas looked more stunned than anyone in the crowd after that miracle comeback. The next three are in Dallas and that provides an opportunity. No chance the Heat get swept in three games. We’re going to play them in all three (barring injuries) at plus money unless they win the next two then we’ll skip game 5. The Heat are simply the best basketball team on the planet and Dallas has not shown that they have the ability to dominate play or beat Miami over a seven game series. Play: Miami +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +171 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halladay is one of the best and needs absolutely no introduction here. We all know what he’s capable of. This season is as good as all the others. He’s 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and has 91 k’s and 13 walks in 91 innings. It’s typical Halladay year after year after year. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. While the 2011 season got off to a rough start for McDonald, things look like they may be turning around. With an ERA nearing 8.00 in the month of April, McDonald's position in the Pirates starting rotation was precarious as he walked more batters than he struck out and was giving up too many jacks. That ERA and xERA is tough to stomach until you see what McDonald has done in May. Having allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, McDonald's ERA is 2.43 since April 24.Don't let that WHIP fool you. The month of May is a better indicator for what McDonald can deliver in the WHIP (1.29) department than his April WHIP implosion. McDonald almost doubled his strikeout rate in the month of May striking out over a batter an inning. MacDonald is flying under the radar and offers up tremendous value, even against Halladay. And how about PNC Park? The place was jammed to the rafters yesterday and the joint was electric. This city hasn’t seen baseball atmosphere here like that since “We are Family”. The whole team is focused, excited and can’t wait to get to the park. This is nothing new for the Phillies and they always have trouble at this joint. Furthermore, they’re just not playing well. Philly is not hitting, they’re not scoring and it also appears as though Jimmy Rollins will miss a few games. PNC Park is sold out again and the Pirates absolutely have a great chance for the sweep. Play: Philadelphia +171 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +129 over BALTIMORE
You have to be pretty good to stay in the rotation when you’ve had one win in 28 consecutive starts and that’s precisely the situation with Jo-Jo Reyes. The weight of the world is off Reyes’ shoulders now that he won his last start. He threw a complete game against the Tribe and allowed one run to lower his ERA to 4.15. Over his last three starts his ERA is 2.84 and he’ll face an Orioles team that been dominated by southpaws all season. Baltimore has just two wins over its last eight games and regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it with the Blue Jays. Adam Lind was leading the league in RBI’s before he was injured and he’s back batting fifth. The Jays bats cooled off a bit yesterday but it’s highly doubtful that Jeremy Guthrie will keep them cool. At 32, there are no favorable signs for Guthrie. He’s a soft-tosser with an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 33%/23%/44%. His strand rate of 77% has helped keep his ERA respectable but don’t buy it. Other than pinpoint control, Guthrie offers up nothing except a great play against taking back a tag. End of story. Play: Toronto +129 (Risking 2 units).
Miami +119 over DALLAS
After watching the first two games of this series, one really has to wonder how the Mav’s are going to win the series. They were clearly outplayed in both games and they’re fortunate that the Heat “let up” after a three-pointer put them up 15 with six minutes to go. That’s not going to happen again. It was a good lesson for Miami that taught them you have to play hard for 48 minutes no matter what. The Mav’s are a perimeter shooting team. Rarely do they drive to the hole so when those shots aren’t falling they end up giving the Heat big runs. What we’re seeing is Dallas getting weaker and Miami getting stronger. The Heat are making all the right adjustments and they have the luxury of sitting LeBron, D-Wade or Bosh while the other two remain on the floor. They drive to the basket almost every possession and so far we’ve seen a ton of easy buckets. Having James and Wade on the same team is almost unfair. Yeah, Miami is cocky and everyone loves to root against them but let’s call a spade a spade. Dallas has to play a flawless game and hit a way higher percentage to even have a remote chance because they’re going to get badly outrebounded and they’re going to get slaughtered in points in the paint. Dallas looked more stunned than anyone in the crowd after that miracle comeback. The next three are in Dallas and that provides an opportunity. No chance the Heat get swept in three games. We’re going to play them in all three (barring injuries) at plus money unless they win the next two then we’ll skip game 5. The Heat are simply the best basketball team on the planet and Dallas has not shown that they have the ability to dominate play or beat Miami over a seven game series. Play: Miami +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +171 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halladay is one of the best and needs absolutely no introduction here. We all know what he’s capable of. This season is as good as all the others. He’s 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and has 91 k’s and 13 walks in 91 innings. It’s typical Halladay year after year after year. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. While the 2011 season got off to a rough start for McDonald, things look like they may be turning around. With an ERA nearing 8.00 in the month of April, McDonald's position in the Pirates starting rotation was precarious as he walked more batters than he struck out and was giving up too many jacks. That ERA and xERA is tough to stomach until you see what McDonald has done in May. Having allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, McDonald's ERA is 2.43 since April 24.Don't let that WHIP fool you. The month of May is a better indicator for what McDonald can deliver in the WHIP (1.29) department than his April WHIP implosion. McDonald almost doubled his strikeout rate in the month of May striking out over a batter an inning. MacDonald is flying under the radar and offers up tremendous value, even against Halladay. And how about PNC Park? The place was jammed to the rafters yesterday and the joint was electric. This city hasn’t seen baseball atmosphere here like that since “We are Family”. The whole team is focused, excited and can’t wait to get to the park. This is nothing new for the Phillies and they always have trouble at this joint. Furthermore, they’re just not playing well. Philly is not hitting, they’re not scoring and it also appears as though Jimmy Rollins will miss a few games. PNC Park is sold out again and the Pirates absolutely have a great chance for the sweep. Play: Philadelphia +171 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +129 over BALTIMORE
You have to be pretty good to stay in the rotation when you’ve had one win in 28 consecutive starts and that’s precisely the situation with Jo-Jo Reyes. The weight of the world is off Reyes’ shoulders now that he won his last start. He threw a complete game against the Tribe and allowed one run to lower his ERA to 4.15. Over his last three starts his ERA is 2.84 and he’ll face an Orioles team that been dominated by southpaws all season. Baltimore has just two wins over its last eight games and regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it with the Blue Jays. Adam Lind was leading the league in RBI’s before he was injured and he’s back batting fifth. The Jays bats cooled off a bit yesterday but it’s highly doubtful that Jeremy Guthrie will keep them cool. At 32, there are no favorable signs for Guthrie. He’s a soft-tosser with an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 33%/23%/44%. His strand rate of 77% has helped keep his ERA respectable but don’t buy it. Other than pinpoint control, Guthrie offers up nothing except a great play against taking back a tag. End of story. Play: Toronto +129 (Risking 2 units).
WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 5
Game: Texas at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -130 (moneyline)
The Indians shocked everyone (including themselves) by starting the season 30-15. But since then, things are regressing to where we expected as they have dropped eight of their last 11. They started 19-4 at home, but have lost their last five here. Are they as bad as their recent performance? No. But they certainly aren't as good as their start indicated. Today they must face C.J. Wilson who owns a 3.21 ERA (even better on the road). And Mitch Talbot is no match. Whereas Wilson is going nearly 7 innings per start, Talbot isn't able to get to 6 per start. Over the past three seasons, the Rangers are 28-17 on the road vs. starting pitchers like Talbot who give up 0.5+ home runs per start. Take the Rangers here.
1 OF 5
Game: Texas at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -130 (moneyline)
The Indians shocked everyone (including themselves) by starting the season 30-15. But since then, things are regressing to where we expected as they have dropped eight of their last 11. They started 19-4 at home, but have lost their last five here. Are they as bad as their recent performance? No. But they certainly aren't as good as their start indicated. Today they must face C.J. Wilson who owns a 3.21 ERA (even better on the road). And Mitch Talbot is no match. Whereas Wilson is going nearly 7 innings per start, Talbot isn't able to get to 6 per start. Over the past three seasons, the Rangers are 28-17 on the road vs. starting pitchers like Talbot who give up 0.5+ home runs per start. Take the Rangers here.
DAVID MALINSKY
4* PITTSBURGH +1.5 -105
When a Total is 6.5, Runs are obviously worth their weight in gold. But the fact that the Phillies and Roy Halladay are such a public item forces this Straight line to be higher than it should be, and that also brings unique value for the Run Line. We will take advantage of it.
To set the perspective, for as good as Halladay has been, the Phillies are just 3-9 as -1.5 in his 12 starts. They are also just 5-17 as -1.5 over their last 22 games. It shows the true limitations of their offense, and there is no reason to fear this being the break-out game against James McDonald. McDonald has worked to a confident 5-1/2.86 from this mound since becoming a Pirate with a significant count of 57 K’s vs. only 50 Hits allowed, and just 0.71 HR’s per 9. He enters this game with plenty of confidence, working to a 1-0/1.93 over his last three starts, and in six of his last seven he has allowed two Runs or less, including a pair of home shutouts. He can control a lineup that loses a left-handed bat with Jimmy Rollins sitting out, and behind him is a bullpen working to a 2.88 tune, with only Joel Hanrahan carrying a fatigue rating today.
In going 6-10 on their last two road trips the Phillies have only managed 3.3 Runs per game, and for the full season it has been 3.7 per game away from their cozy home park. With Chase Utley (.195) slow to round into form, and Ryan Howard mired in a 5-28 funk on this trip, the punch is not there for them to be in this price range.
4* PITTSBURGH +1.5 -105
When a Total is 6.5, Runs are obviously worth their weight in gold. But the fact that the Phillies and Roy Halladay are such a public item forces this Straight line to be higher than it should be, and that also brings unique value for the Run Line. We will take advantage of it.
To set the perspective, for as good as Halladay has been, the Phillies are just 3-9 as -1.5 in his 12 starts. They are also just 5-17 as -1.5 over their last 22 games. It shows the true limitations of their offense, and there is no reason to fear this being the break-out game against James McDonald. McDonald has worked to a confident 5-1/2.86 from this mound since becoming a Pirate with a significant count of 57 K’s vs. only 50 Hits allowed, and just 0.71 HR’s per 9. He enters this game with plenty of confidence, working to a 1-0/1.93 over his last three starts, and in six of his last seven he has allowed two Runs or less, including a pair of home shutouts. He can control a lineup that loses a left-handed bat with Jimmy Rollins sitting out, and behind him is a bullpen working to a 2.88 tune, with only Joel Hanrahan carrying a fatigue rating today.
In going 6-10 on their last two road trips the Phillies have only managed 3.3 Runs per game, and for the full season it has been 3.7 per game away from their cozy home park. With Chase Utley (.195) slow to round into form, and Ryan Howard mired in a 5-28 funk on this trip, the punch is not there for them to be in this price range.
