David Malinsky, I have posted him the last three days now on this site he his on a 20-7 run since monday, only major run line have lost since monday....do as u wish gl....Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers Jun 22 2008 2:05PM
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
Your pick will be graded at: -140 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MILWAUKEE over BALTIMORE
Because the Cubs have been playing at such a blistering pace, and draw more than their share of media attention, the current 17-7 run by these Brewers is far off of the radar screens in the N.L. Central, as is the form of Manny Parra, according to today’s line. That works for us. Now we get a hot team at home against a left-hander that they can mash, while they send a lefty of their own to the table that can control the lineup that he is facing.
Parra’s overall 6-2/4.22 is solid, but to appreciate him fully we have to recognize the sparkling 4-0/2.47 at home, where he brings a high level of confidence to the table. The real key with young left-handers is their advantage against teams that have not faced them before, and we saw Parra dominate Toronto in his last start, shutting the Blue Jays out on four hits over seven innings. In his second Inter-League encounter Baltimore brings a similar lack of experience and scouting reports, and the Orioles are nothing special at all against left-handed pitching, something that will hold up all season because of their lack of righty punch.
Garrett Olson also brings us value here because of a fluky 5-2 record that does not measure his abilities properly at all. A 4.80 ERA is a better indicator of his stuff, and note that it balloons to 6.23 on the road. And while Parra brings a high to the mound on recent form, Olson is at the opposite end of the spectrum - he lasted only 10 innings over his last two starts, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits, with as many walks as strikeouts, and a pair of home runs. But he got bailed out with a no-decision against Houston in his last outing, a game that the Orioles rallied to win, and that helps to cloud just how mediocre his stuff is (remember that 1-3/7.79 over seven starts LY?).
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Baltimore Orioles
Milwaukee Brewers OFF
OFF
9.5
-146 100
9.5
-142 100
Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins Jun 22 2008 2:10PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* ARIZONA/MINNESOTA Over
Brandon Webb has not been Brandon Webb of late. Livan Hernandez is simply all that he can be at this stage of his career. And that means an excellent opportunity for this short total to be eclipsed.
Webb has lasted only 8.1 innings over his last two starts, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits and five walks, including a pair of home runs. There was a logic to those failings, and one that also carries forward here. First, note that he continues a career-long bias that makes him much less effective against left-handed hitters. the Mets and Athletics had the ability to load up from that side in the last two games. But then another issue comes into play - a lack of work. Webb is the prototype of the classic sinker-ball pitcher; the more he works the better he performs, as sinker-ballers actually pitch better when there is a level of fatigue in their arms. When they are too fresh, they often have a tough time getting the ball down in the strike zone. So after only throwing 58 pitches vs. the Mets, and then having five full days between starts, he followed up with his worst outing of the season vs. Oakland. But in that one he left after only 84 pitches, and we believe that it carries over to today - he will come in a bit too fresh again, and also vulnerable to those outstanding left-handers in the middle of the Minnesota lineup.
And then there is Hernandez. The veteran right-hander can only do it with guile these days, with his statistics literally crashing our “stuff” meter. For the full season he sports a ratio of 141 hits vs.only 29 strikeouts, which reaches historic baseball levels, and that was despite the advantage of pitching in a new league, where he had a chance to fool some batters early. What has happened now that scouting reports are out there? Over his last eight starts he sports a 7.46 ERA, and a mind-numbing count of 79 hits vs. 9 strikeouts. You can not survive at this level when that much contact is being made, and note that even in beating Washington in his last outing he was only able to strike out one of the 23 batters that he faced. Now he is up against an Arizona team that he made 33 starts for LY, and that means hitters that now full well his pitching style. The Diamondbacks are not going to be fooled by his “Church League Softball” velocity, and will make some solid contact.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
-152
8.5
-115 -152
8.5
-115
Mariners (RL) at Braves (RL) Jun 22 2008 1:30PM
PICK: Braves (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* ATLANTA Rune Line over SEATTLE
Everyone once in a while a team will get a win that we can call good for the “soul”, and that was the case with the struggling Braves last night - rallying for that ‘W’ was something that they needed in the worst way, off of an arduous road trip, and the psychological blows of losing John Smoltz and Tom Glavine in recent weeks. It puts us in the right place at the right time to get behind them here, and Seattle provides a wonderful package to oppose.
The Mariners have struggled to a 6-17 tune on the road over the past two months, with many of those losses falling into our pockets. They are an offensively-challenged side that can not stand up to good pitching away from home (enter Tim Hudson), and this afternoon they do not bring a pitching staff that can keep them in the game. Carlos Silva falls down in every way imaginable here - he sits at an atrocious 0-8/8.49 over his last nine starts, with Seattle being out-scored by 26 runs in those games (the Mariners did win his lone non-decision in that span). On the road it has been a 1-4/6.08, on the heels of a 4-10/5.03 from opposing mounds LY. And he has been absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters, who have rocked him to a .328 tune this season, with eight home runs in 186 at-bats. The Braves are going to run a lot of lefties out there in today’s lineup. And with J. J. Putz and Brandon Morrow both missing from the bullpen, and Sean Green also out for today off of 35 Saturday pitches, the innings after Silva may be just as bad as the ones that he will work.
Note that despite only winning 5-4 last night, the game was actually a blowout for the Braves - they out-hit Seattle 11-5, with five of their hits going for extra bases, while the Mariners managed only singles. Atlanta had six players reach via a walk or HBP; Seattle only four. That creates the wrong impression, and hence outstanding value, and we will use the Run Line for an underdog return in a game that should break wide open.
