RW Sports
soccer: win/loss: 19-17-1, net profit: +4.28 units, yield: 11%
other sports: win/loss: 0-3, net profit: -5.00 units, yield: -100%
english premier:
bolton - birmingham, draw, 0.5 units, 3.45 @ Pinnacle
burnley - spurs, spurs -1, 1 unit, 1.91 @ Pinnacle
chelsea - wigan, 1st half over 1.25 goals, 1 unit, 1.80 @ bet365
everton - portsmouth, everton -1.25, 2 units, 1.63 @ Pinnacle
west ham - man city, draw, 0.5 units, 3.75 @ Pinnacle
english championship:
leicester - cardiff, leicester +0/dnb, 1 unit, 1.65 @ SportingBet
soccer: win/loss: 19-17-1, net profit: +4.28 units, yield: 11%
other sports: win/loss: 0-3, net profit: -5.00 units, yield: -100%
english premier:
bolton - birmingham, draw, 0.5 units, 3.45 @ Pinnacle
burnley - spurs, spurs -1, 1 unit, 1.91 @ Pinnacle
chelsea - wigan, 1st half over 1.25 goals, 1 unit, 1.80 @ bet365
everton - portsmouth, everton -1.25, 2 units, 1.63 @ Pinnacle
west ham - man city, draw, 0.5 units, 3.75 @ Pinnacle
english championship:
leicester - cardiff, leicester +0/dnb, 1 unit, 1.65 @ SportingBet
SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, MAY 9
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Boston (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers, coming off a blowout Game 3 victory, look to take full control of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics at TD Garden in Game 4. LeBron James racked up 21 of his 38 points in the first quarter Friday night, helping top-seeded Cleveland plow to a 124-95 rout as a one-point road underdog and regain home-court advantage as fast as the Cavs lost it in Game 2. James, who also had eight assists, hit 14 of 22 from the field, and Mike Brown’s troops shot a scorching 59.5 percent (44 of 74). Antawn Jamison added a double-double of 20 points and 12 rebounds. In suffering its worst home playoff loss in franchise history, Boston shot 42.7 percent (35 of 82), going just 4-for-17 from 3-point range (23.5 percent), and no Celtic reached 20 points, with Kevin Garnett scoring 19 and Rajon Rondo 18. The Celts hit a decent 21 of 29 from the free-throw line (72.4 percent), but they sent the Cavs to the charity stripe a whopping 34 times, and Cleveland knocked down 31 (91.2 percent). In addition, Doc Rivers’ squad got drilled on the boards, 45-30. Cleveland is 28-16 SU (24-19-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 102 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent). Boston is 27-18 SU but just 15-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.9 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) and gives up 96.4 (45.9 percent). Cleveland has owned this rivalry lately at the betting window, going 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings (4-3 SU and ATS this season), including 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests at the Garden. The Cavs, who prior to Friday hadn’t won a playoff game in Boston since 1992, are on an 8-2 ATS run in postseason games against the Celtics (7-1 ATS last eight), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 10 straight series clashes in this rivalry, including all seven this season. The Cavaliers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 second-round playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes, but they remain on pointspread slides of 6-12 overall, 0-4 after a day off, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 2-8 following a SU win. The Celtics are on pointspread purges of 12-27-1 at the Garden, 5-15 in second-round playoff contests, 1-6-1 on Sunday and 7-18-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, though they are also on a 6-1 ATS roll following either a SU or an ATS setback. The under is 18-7 in Cleveland’s last 25 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 13-3 against Atlantic Division foe, and 6-1 on the highway. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-5 overall, 7-2 at the Garden, 8-2 against the Central Division and 35-16 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total hurdled the 193½-point posted price of in Game 3, giving the over a 6-1 mark in this season’s seven meetings. Furthermore, the over is 6-0 in the last six Cavs-Celts contests at TD Garden (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (7-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
The streaking Suns look to finally slay their playoff nemesis when they go for the four-game sweep of the reeling Spurs when this best-of-7 series resumes at the AT&T Center. Phoenix overcame an 18-point first-half deficit, then got 23 points fourth-quarter points from little-known Goran Dragic in a 110-96 rout Friday night as a seven-point road pup. Dragic went 5-for-5 from beyond the arc and finished with 26 points, while Jason Richardson added 21, and Steve Nash had 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The Suns shot 53.2 percent (42 of 79), including a torrid 57.7 percent from long range (15 of 26). Manu Ginobili had 27 points to lead San Antonio, but none of his teammates even approached 20, with Tim Duncan coming closest at 15 points, to go with 13 rebounds. The Spurs shot a respectable 45 percent (36 of 80), including 8 of 16 from three-point range, and outrebounded Phoenix 43-37 (11-6 on the offensive end). But San Antonio’s struggles from the free-throw line continued as it hit just 57.1 percent of its foul shots (16 of 28) after going 15-for-22 (68.2 percent) in Game 2. Phoenix is 25-20 SU (26-19 ATS) on the highway this season (3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 ppg (45.6 percent). With Friday’s defeat, San Antonio fell to 32-13 SU (26-17-2 ATS) at the AT&T Center this year (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in the playoffs), putting up 104.5 ppg (49.0 percent shooting) and yielding 96.8 ppg (46 percent shooting).
Phoenix has cashed in all six meetings this season in this rivalry (5-1 SU), though Friday’s affair was only the second time the teams played in San Antonio. Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS on its last nine trips to the Alamo, the favorite and the home team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the SU winner is 16-1-1 ATS in the last 18 Spurs-Suns matchups. These foes have met four times in the postseason since 2003, with San Antonio winning all four series. However, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series in 90 opportunities. The Suns are on a boatload of spread-covering sprees, including 32-11-1 overall, 15-6 on the road (4-1 last five), 10-3 as a road pup, 19-5 against the Southwest Division, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 35-15-1 after a day off. The Spurs are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall, 2-7-1 on Sunday and 1-3-1 after a day off, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 21-12-1 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 12-4-1 as a favorite and 21-7-3 as a playoff chalk. In this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings overall, including five of six this season, though Friday’s game fell just a hair short of the 206½-point price. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 11-5 against the Southwest Division (5-2 last seven) and 12-5 in second-round playoff games, but the Suns are also on “under” rolls of 5-2 overall, 7-0-1 on the road and 4-1 after a day off. Additionally, San Antonio is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a day off, 8-3 as a playoff favorite and 8-2-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (17-12) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets shoot for a three-game sweep of the Giants and their 10th straight home win, but they’ll have to face two-time N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.70 ERA), while New York counters with lefty Oliver Perez (0-2, 4.05) at Citi Field. One day after catcher Rod Barajas hit a walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to give the Mets a 6-4 victory Friday, backup catcher Henry Blanco smacked a walk-off solo shot in the 11th inning Saturday to secure a 5-4 win. New York has won nine straight home games for the first time since 2006, and it is on further positive runs of 13-5 overall, 9-3 against right-handed starters and 6-0 versus the N.L. West. San Francisco arrived in the Big Apple after scoring a three-game sweep in Florida to start the week, and despite suffering heartbreaking losses in the first two games of this series, the Giants are still 9-5 in their last 14 games. However, they’ve lost five of their last six in the third game of a series. The Mets have now won 12 of 15 against San Francisco, including eight of the last 10 battles in Queens. Lincecum is coming off back-to-back no-decisions in extra-inning games. On April 28 against the Phillies, he allowed two runs in 8 1/3 innings and took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, but the bullpen couldn’t get the final two outs and San Francisco lost 7-6 in 11 innings. Then on Tuesday in Florida, the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in seven innings, with the Giants prevailing 9-6 in 12 innings. Over his last two starts, Lincecum has logged 24 strikeouts while walking just two in 15 1/3 innings. Also, going back to the final weekend of the 2009 season, San Francisco is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Lincecum has made three road starts this year (all Giants wins), going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (three runs, 13 hits, three walks and 27 strikeouts in 20 innings). However, he’s struggled in three career starts against the Mets, going 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, with San Francisco losing all three games. Perez is coming off a strong performance at Cincinnati, yielding just two runs on six hits and four walks in six innings, but the Mets fell 3-2 in 11 innings. The southpaw has held his last four opponents to eight earned runs in 21 innings (3.43 ERA), yet the Mets have just one victory during this stretch. In fact, New York is 1-5 in his last six outings overall and 0-6 in his last six on Sunday, but the Mets have won seven of Perez’s last eight starts against N.L. West opponents. At home this year, Perez is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts, and since Citi Field opened at the start of last season, he’s 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 home contests. Additionally, Perez is winless in nine career starts against San Francisco, going 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA. The Giants are 7-2 in those nine games. The Giants have followed up a 13-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three games, but they still carry low-scoring trends of 5-2 against left-handed starters, 27-10-2 on the road against lefties, 30-12-2 in the third game of a series and 5-1 on Sunday. However, with Lincecum on the bump, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road and 4-0 in the third game of a series. New York is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in the third game of a series, and with Perez pitching the over is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 6-0-1 against the N.L. West and 9-2 in the third game of a series. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between the Giants and Mets have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-8) at Boston (15-16)
Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA) looks to continue his hot pitching and help the Red Sox avoid a three-game sweep when he matches up against unbeaten Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99) in a nationally televised contest at Fenway Park.
Mark Teixeira blasted three home runs and New York continued its dominance of the Red Sox with a 14-3 rout on Saturday. Since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, the Yankees are on a 13-2 roll against their archrivals, winning the last four in a row this season (all at Fenway). Also, the defending champs are 6-2 in their last eight contests in Beantown. New York is now riding a six-game winning streak, and it has won nine of its 10, with all nine wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 21 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 27 of their 29 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. Joe Girardi’s team is on further runs of 40-15 overall, 44-14 against divisional foes, 45-20 against left-handed starters and 50-23 on Sunday. Boston is still 11-7 in its last 18 games, going 8-4 at Fenway during this stretch. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-18 against the A.L. East (0-5 last five) and 3-19 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600. Burnett is coming off back-to-back gems against the Orioles, allowing one unearned run on eight hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings, rolling to wins of 4-0 (road) and 4-1 (home). The Arkansas native has yielded just six runs in his last five outings covering 35 2/3 innings (1.51 ERA). The Yankees are 5-1 in Burnett’s six starts this season, 12-2 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-0 in his last five on Sunday. Four of his six starts this season have come on the road, and he’s 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA. His first road outing this year came on April 6 in Boston, and Burnett gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings, getting a no-decision in the Yankees’ 6-4 win. For his career, Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Red Sox, but since signing with New York last year, he’s allowed 26 runs (23 earned) in five starts spanning 25 1/3 innings (8.17 ERA). All 26 runs have been surrendered in four games (17 2/3 innings) at Fenway Park (11.72 ERA). Lester struggled in his first three starts, giving up 15 runs in 16 innings in losses to the Yankees (6-4), Twins (5-2) and Rays (7-1). However, in his last three trips to the hill, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts against just eight walks. However, Lester is still just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four home starts, with the Red Sox splitting those contests. With Lester starting, Boston is on positive runs of 60-29 overall, 28-6 at home, 21-7 in the third game of a series and 12-5 on Sunday. However, the Sox have lost three straight games to the Yankees behind Lester, who is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Bronx Bombers. New York is on “over” runs of 16-5-2 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 on Sunday, 6-2 with Burnett starting, 6-1 with Burnett working on the road and 6-2-1 when he faces the A.L. East. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in six of eight at home and five of seven on Sunday, but behind Lester, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-1 at home and 5-0 on Sunday.
Finally, the over has cashed in four of five meetings between these teams this year (all in Boston), and eight of the last nine clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total. Going back further, the over is 40-19-1 in the last 60 Yanks-Sox battles at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
SUNDAY, MAY 9
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Boston (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers, coming off a blowout Game 3 victory, look to take full control of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics at TD Garden in Game 4. LeBron James racked up 21 of his 38 points in the first quarter Friday night, helping top-seeded Cleveland plow to a 124-95 rout as a one-point road underdog and regain home-court advantage as fast as the Cavs lost it in Game 2. James, who also had eight assists, hit 14 of 22 from the field, and Mike Brown’s troops shot a scorching 59.5 percent (44 of 74). Antawn Jamison added a double-double of 20 points and 12 rebounds. In suffering its worst home playoff loss in franchise history, Boston shot 42.7 percent (35 of 82), going just 4-for-17 from 3-point range (23.5 percent), and no Celtic reached 20 points, with Kevin Garnett scoring 19 and Rajon Rondo 18. The Celts hit a decent 21 of 29 from the free-throw line (72.4 percent), but they sent the Cavs to the charity stripe a whopping 34 times, and Cleveland knocked down 31 (91.2 percent). In addition, Doc Rivers’ squad got drilled on the boards, 45-30. Cleveland is 28-16 SU (24-19-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 102 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent). Boston is 27-18 SU but just 15-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.9 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) and gives up 96.4 (45.9 percent). Cleveland has owned this rivalry lately at the betting window, going 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings (4-3 SU and ATS this season), including 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests at the Garden. The Cavs, who prior to Friday hadn’t won a playoff game in Boston since 1992, are on an 8-2 ATS run in postseason games against the Celtics (7-1 ATS last eight), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 10 straight series clashes in this rivalry, including all seven this season. The Cavaliers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 second-round playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes, but they remain on pointspread slides of 6-12 overall, 0-4 after a day off, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 2-8 following a SU win. The Celtics are on pointspread purges of 12-27-1 at the Garden, 5-15 in second-round playoff contests, 1-6-1 on Sunday and 7-18-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, though they are also on a 6-1 ATS roll following either a SU or an ATS setback. The under is 18-7 in Cleveland’s last 25 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 13-3 against Atlantic Division foe, and 6-1 on the highway. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-5 overall, 7-2 at the Garden, 8-2 against the Central Division and 35-16 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total hurdled the 193½-point posted price of in Game 3, giving the over a 6-1 mark in this season’s seven meetings. Furthermore, the over is 6-0 in the last six Cavs-Celts contests at TD Garden (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (7-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
The streaking Suns look to finally slay their playoff nemesis when they go for the four-game sweep of the reeling Spurs when this best-of-7 series resumes at the AT&T Center. Phoenix overcame an 18-point first-half deficit, then got 23 points fourth-quarter points from little-known Goran Dragic in a 110-96 rout Friday night as a seven-point road pup. Dragic went 5-for-5 from beyond the arc and finished with 26 points, while Jason Richardson added 21, and Steve Nash had 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The Suns shot 53.2 percent (42 of 79), including a torrid 57.7 percent from long range (15 of 26). Manu Ginobili had 27 points to lead San Antonio, but none of his teammates even approached 20, with Tim Duncan coming closest at 15 points, to go with 13 rebounds. The Spurs shot a respectable 45 percent (36 of 80), including 8 of 16 from three-point range, and outrebounded Phoenix 43-37 (11-6 on the offensive end). But San Antonio’s struggles from the free-throw line continued as it hit just 57.1 percent of its foul shots (16 of 28) after going 15-for-22 (68.2 percent) in Game 2. Phoenix is 25-20 SU (26-19 ATS) on the highway this season (3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 ppg (45.6 percent). With Friday’s defeat, San Antonio fell to 32-13 SU (26-17-2 ATS) at the AT&T Center this year (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in the playoffs), putting up 104.5 ppg (49.0 percent shooting) and yielding 96.8 ppg (46 percent shooting).
Phoenix has cashed in all six meetings this season in this rivalry (5-1 SU), though Friday’s affair was only the second time the teams played in San Antonio. Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS on its last nine trips to the Alamo, the favorite and the home team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the SU winner is 16-1-1 ATS in the last 18 Spurs-Suns matchups. These foes have met four times in the postseason since 2003, with San Antonio winning all four series. However, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series in 90 opportunities. The Suns are on a boatload of spread-covering sprees, including 32-11-1 overall, 15-6 on the road (4-1 last five), 10-3 as a road pup, 19-5 against the Southwest Division, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 35-15-1 after a day off. The Spurs are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall, 2-7-1 on Sunday and 1-3-1 after a day off, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 21-12-1 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 12-4-1 as a favorite and 21-7-3 as a playoff chalk. In this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings overall, including five of six this season, though Friday’s game fell just a hair short of the 206½-point price. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 11-5 against the Southwest Division (5-2 last seven) and 12-5 in second-round playoff games, but the Suns are also on “under” rolls of 5-2 overall, 7-0-1 on the road and 4-1 after a day off. Additionally, San Antonio is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a day off, 8-3 as a playoff favorite and 8-2-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (17-12) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets shoot for a three-game sweep of the Giants and their 10th straight home win, but they’ll have to face two-time N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (4-0, 1.70 ERA), while New York counters with lefty Oliver Perez (0-2, 4.05) at Citi Field. One day after catcher Rod Barajas hit a walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to give the Mets a 6-4 victory Friday, backup catcher Henry Blanco smacked a walk-off solo shot in the 11th inning Saturday to secure a 5-4 win. New York has won nine straight home games for the first time since 2006, and it is on further positive runs of 13-5 overall, 9-3 against right-handed starters and 6-0 versus the N.L. West. San Francisco arrived in the Big Apple after scoring a three-game sweep in Florida to start the week, and despite suffering heartbreaking losses in the first two games of this series, the Giants are still 9-5 in their last 14 games. However, they’ve lost five of their last six in the third game of a series. The Mets have now won 12 of 15 against San Francisco, including eight of the last 10 battles in Queens. Lincecum is coming off back-to-back no-decisions in extra-inning games. On April 28 against the Phillies, he allowed two runs in 8 1/3 innings and took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, but the bullpen couldn’t get the final two outs and San Francisco lost 7-6 in 11 innings. Then on Tuesday in Florida, the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in seven innings, with the Giants prevailing 9-6 in 12 innings. Over his last two starts, Lincecum has logged 24 strikeouts while walking just two in 15 1/3 innings. Also, going back to the final weekend of the 2009 season, San Francisco is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Lincecum has made three road starts this year (all Giants wins), going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (three runs, 13 hits, three walks and 27 strikeouts in 20 innings). However, he’s struggled in three career starts against the Mets, going 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, with San Francisco losing all three games. Perez is coming off a strong performance at Cincinnati, yielding just two runs on six hits and four walks in six innings, but the Mets fell 3-2 in 11 innings. The southpaw has held his last four opponents to eight earned runs in 21 innings (3.43 ERA), yet the Mets have just one victory during this stretch. In fact, New York is 1-5 in his last six outings overall and 0-6 in his last six on Sunday, but the Mets have won seven of Perez’s last eight starts against N.L. West opponents. At home this year, Perez is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts, and since Citi Field opened at the start of last season, he’s 3-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 home contests. Additionally, Perez is winless in nine career starts against San Francisco, going 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA. The Giants are 7-2 in those nine games. The Giants have followed up a 13-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three games, but they still carry low-scoring trends of 5-2 against left-handed starters, 27-10-2 on the road against lefties, 30-12-2 in the third game of a series and 5-1 on Sunday. However, with Lincecum on the bump, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road and 4-0 in the third game of a series. New York is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in the third game of a series, and with Perez pitching the over is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 6-0-1 against the N.L. West and 9-2 in the third game of a series. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between the Giants and Mets have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-8) at Boston (15-16)
Jon Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA) looks to continue his hot pitching and help the Red Sox avoid a three-game sweep when he matches up against unbeaten Yankees right-hander A.J. Burnett (4-0, 1.99) in a nationally televised contest at Fenway Park.
Mark Teixeira blasted three home runs and New York continued its dominance of the Red Sox with a 14-3 rout on Saturday. Since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, the Yankees are on a 13-2 roll against their archrivals, winning the last four in a row this season (all at Fenway). Also, the defending champs are 6-2 in their last eight contests in Beantown. New York is now riding a six-game winning streak, and it has won nine of its 10, with all nine wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 21 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 27 of their 29 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. Joe Girardi’s team is on further runs of 40-15 overall, 44-14 against divisional foes, 45-20 against left-handed starters and 50-23 on Sunday. Boston is still 11-7 in its last 18 games, going 8-4 at Fenway during this stretch. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-18 against the A.L. East (0-5 last five) and 3-19 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600. Burnett is coming off back-to-back gems against the Orioles, allowing one unearned run on eight hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings, rolling to wins of 4-0 (road) and 4-1 (home). The Arkansas native has yielded just six runs in his last five outings covering 35 2/3 innings (1.51 ERA). The Yankees are 5-1 in Burnett’s six starts this season, 12-2 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-0 in his last five on Sunday. Four of his six starts this season have come on the road, and he’s 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA. His first road outing this year came on April 6 in Boston, and Burnett gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings, getting a no-decision in the Yankees’ 6-4 win. For his career, Burnett is 5-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 13 starts against the Red Sox, but since signing with New York last year, he’s allowed 26 runs (23 earned) in five starts spanning 25 1/3 innings (8.17 ERA). All 26 runs have been surrendered in four games (17 2/3 innings) at Fenway Park (11.72 ERA). Lester struggled in his first three starts, giving up 15 runs in 16 innings in losses to the Yankees (6-4), Twins (5-2) and Rays (7-1). However, in his last three trips to the hill, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts against just eight walks. However, Lester is still just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four home starts, with the Red Sox splitting those contests. With Lester starting, Boston is on positive runs of 60-29 overall, 28-6 at home, 21-7 in the third game of a series and 12-5 on Sunday. However, the Sox have lost three straight games to the Yankees behind Lester, who is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Bronx Bombers. New York is on “over” runs of 16-5-2 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 on Sunday, 6-2 with Burnett starting, 6-1 with Burnett working on the road and 6-2-1 when he faces the A.L. East. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in six of eight at home and five of seven on Sunday, but behind Lester, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-1 at home and 5-0 on Sunday.
Finally, the over has cashed in four of five meetings between these teams this year (all in Boston), and eight of the last nine clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total. Going back further, the over is 40-19-1 in the last 60 Yanks-Sox battles at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
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Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Spurs look washed up after falling into an 0-3 hole. They’ve gone just 4-6 in their past 10 games, including a brutal 3-6-1 record against the spread in that span. San Antonio has done a pretty solid job on NBA odds when playing at home over the past few weeks, going 6-3-1 against the spread, but it didn’t matter one bit in Friday’s 110-96 loss to Phoenix. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker scored just 25 points—combined.
Phoenix, on the other hand, looks unstoppable right now. The Suns have ripped off victories in eight of their last 10 games, not to mention a great 8-2 run at the sportsbook. Another game in San Antonio certainly won’t faze the team, as Phoenix is 7-3 in its last 10 games against the spread when playing away from home.
At this point, you might as well stick a fork in the Spurs. The Suns mean business this year.
Premium sports service pick: Phoenix
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Spurs look washed up after falling into an 0-3 hole. They’ve gone just 4-6 in their past 10 games, including a brutal 3-6-1 record against the spread in that span. San Antonio has done a pretty solid job on NBA odds when playing at home over the past few weeks, going 6-3-1 against the spread, but it didn’t matter one bit in Friday’s 110-96 loss to Phoenix. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker scored just 25 points—combined.
Phoenix, on the other hand, looks unstoppable right now. The Suns have ripped off victories in eight of their last 10 games, not to mention a great 8-2 run at the sportsbook. Another game in San Antonio certainly won’t faze the team, as Phoenix is 7-3 in its last 10 games against the spread when playing away from home.
At this point, you might as well stick a fork in the Spurs. The Suns mean business this year.
Premium sports service pick: Phoenix
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +1.36 over ARIZONA
The Brewers have woken up big time with four wins in five games and in three of those four wins they scored 11 runs or more. They exploded for 17 more runs yesterday and they’ve won the first two games of this series and nothing suggest they can’t sweep. Ian Kennedy has benefitted from pitching in San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston and at Wrigley Field. That sequence of four parks could make any pitcher in the league look good. You take a mediocre pitcher with good numbers and a correction in those numbers is guaranteed to be forthcoming. Kennedy has thrown 111, 110 and 110 pitches over his last three starts and let’s not forget that he was absolutely rocked in his first two starts of the year and has a career ERA of 5.12. Furthermore, the D-Backs might have the most toxic bullpen in the majors. That pen has a season ERA of 6.64 and an ERA of 8.34 over its last four games. Chris Narverson was very shaky in relief but appears to be a whole lot more comfortable as a starter. He’s a guy that keeps the ball down and in two starts he’s allowed just nine hits in 11 innings while striking out nine batters. The D-Backs have just three wins over its last nine games and three of those wins came against the reeling and pathetic Astros. Play: Milwaukee +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.09 over WASHINGTON
It’s virtually near impossible for Livan Hernandez to sustain the current run of good fortune that he’s had. Hernandez has a 0.99 ERA after five starts and when you look at his other numbers you would conclude that an ERA of 0.99 is impossible. In 36 innings he’s struck out 11 lousy batters while walking 13. He has an incredible but unsustainable 97% strand rate and not even Chris Angel could make that illusion last much longer. Hernandez threw 123 pitches in six innings in his last start and for a guy that’s 35-years old and has over 2700 major league innings those types of starts will quickly take its toll. An implosion is just around the corner and chances are it comes here. Anibal Sanchez is hit and miss. He has terrific stuff and could throw a gem at any time, as he has done many times in his career. However, this choice is more about taking back a tag against Hernendez and there’s no denying that’s where the value is in this game. Play: Florida +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.36 over MINNESOTA
Nick Blackburn is one of the most hittable pitchers and one of the most unappealing favorites in the game. First, he has just nine K’s in 32.2 innings, which is a strong sign that he’s not fooling anyone. He’s allowed 44 hits and seven jacks in 32 innings of work and that has led to a BAA of .338. The reports are that his velocity is way down and that could account for his lack of skills but whatever the case, the fact is, he’s pitching brutally awful. In 71 career starts, Blackburn’s BAA is .296 so it’s not like he’s being uncharacteristic this season. The man is simply not a very good pitcher and never has been. Brian Matusz is good. Here’s a guy that has made six starts and those six starts have come against the Rays twice, the Yanks twice, the Red Sox and Oakland. His last three starts have been against the Red Sox and Yankees twice and he did not allow more than three runs in any of them. His ERA on the year is 3.93 and he’s only allowed two bombs in 36 frames against a whole bunch of wickedly strong hitters. Matusz and the Orioles have played the toughest schedule in the majors thus far and as a result the Orioles 9-22 record is a little misleading. Not that the O’s are a strong team but they’re not as bad as that record suggests either and because of said record, they’re going to be a very undervalued team over the next few weeks and that’s definitely the case here. Play: Baltimore +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.36 over ARIZONA
The Brewers have woken up big time with four wins in five games and in three of those four wins they scored 11 runs or more. They exploded for 17 more runs yesterday and they’ve won the first two games of this series and nothing suggest they can’t sweep. Ian Kennedy has benefitted from pitching in San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston and at Wrigley Field. That sequence of four parks could make any pitcher in the league look good. You take a mediocre pitcher with good numbers and a correction in those numbers is guaranteed to be forthcoming. Kennedy has thrown 111, 110 and 110 pitches over his last three starts and let’s not forget that he was absolutely rocked in his first two starts of the year and has a career ERA of 5.12. Furthermore, the D-Backs might have the most toxic bullpen in the majors. That pen has a season ERA of 6.64 and an ERA of 8.34 over its last four games. Chris Narverson was very shaky in relief but appears to be a whole lot more comfortable as a starter. He’s a guy that keeps the ball down and in two starts he’s allowed just nine hits in 11 innings while striking out nine batters. The D-Backs have just three wins over its last nine games and three of those wins came against the reeling and pathetic Astros. Play: Milwaukee +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.09 over WASHINGTON
It’s virtually near impossible for Livan Hernandez to sustain the current run of good fortune that he’s had. Hernandez has a 0.99 ERA after five starts and when you look at his other numbers you would conclude that an ERA of 0.99 is impossible. In 36 innings he’s struck out 11 lousy batters while walking 13. He has an incredible but unsustainable 97% strand rate and not even Chris Angel could make that illusion last much longer. Hernandez threw 123 pitches in six innings in his last start and for a guy that’s 35-years old and has over 2700 major league innings those types of starts will quickly take its toll. An implosion is just around the corner and chances are it comes here. Anibal Sanchez is hit and miss. He has terrific stuff and could throw a gem at any time, as he has done many times in his career. However, this choice is more about taking back a tag against Hernendez and there’s no denying that’s where the value is in this game. Play: Florida +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.36 over MINNESOTA
Nick Blackburn is one of the most hittable pitchers and one of the most unappealing favorites in the game. First, he has just nine K’s in 32.2 innings, which is a strong sign that he’s not fooling anyone. He’s allowed 44 hits and seven jacks in 32 innings of work and that has led to a BAA of .338. The reports are that his velocity is way down and that could account for his lack of skills but whatever the case, the fact is, he’s pitching brutally awful. In 71 career starts, Blackburn’s BAA is .296 so it’s not like he’s being uncharacteristic this season. The man is simply not a very good pitcher and never has been. Brian Matusz is good. Here’s a guy that has made six starts and those six starts have come against the Rays twice, the Yanks twice, the Red Sox and Oakland. His last three starts have been against the Red Sox and Yankees twice and he did not allow more than three runs in any of them. His ERA on the year is 3.93 and he’s only allowed two bombs in 36 frames against a whole bunch of wickedly strong hitters. Matusz and the Orioles have played the toughest schedule in the majors thus far and as a result the Orioles 9-22 record is a little misleading. Not that the O’s are a strong team but they’re not as bad as that record suggests either and because of said record, they’re going to be a very undervalued team over the next few weeks and that’s definitely the case here. Play: Baltimore +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
