Dave Essler | MLB Total
dime bet 966 ATL / 965 CIN Over 7 SportBet
Analysis: We put this out early at a good number. I would still play it at 7.5. Both teams have their hitting shoes on, it's an ESPN game meaning the might be MORE aggressive, and both bullpens were used and abused last night, which means we only need to get to ONE of the starters. I happen to think we get to both.
I know how good Jurrjens has been, and in fact we've been behind him more often than not this season. The Reds have seen just enough of him not to be fooled. Several have gone yard (Rolen, Phillips, and Votto) and Bruce is 3-7. The Reds are just built to rake RHP. He throws strikes (he doesn't walk many) which can be a dangerous thing against a free-swinging team like Cincinnati, and in three of his last four starts he's given up more flyball outs than groundball outs.
Atlanta has had little or no trouble with Cueto, historically, and what I do like in this matchup is the fact that Atlanta is one of the better teams in the league at drawing walks and getting the pitch count up. And Cueto has thrown quite a few pitches and has allowed far more flyball outs than the rally-killing ground ball double-play out.
The wind should be little or nor factor here, but the humidity might be. It's heating up down here and the ball carries very well in Turner Field in the Summer.
In the end, the Reds have scored four or more runs in five straight games, three of which were in Philadelphia against some very good pitching, while Atlanta at home is a different animal. I don't trust Cueto at all, or after yesterday either pen, so there are far more ways these guys get to eight than not.
**CPAW: if writte ups are allowed ok, if not please delate.