Game 3 - Spurs at Thunder
By Kevin Rogers
The favorites are starting to come around in the conference finals with three straight victories and covers following Miami’s blowout of Indiana on Saturday night. The Spurs routed the Thunder in the first two games of the Western Conference Finals at home as the series shifts to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 3 with the Thunder in desperate need of a win.
San Antonio opened things up in the third quarter of a back-and-forth Game 1 to capture the series opener, 122-105 to cash as six-point favorites. However, the Spurs put away the Thunder in Game 2 by halftime in a 112-77 thrashing to take a 2-0 series edge. In Game 2, San Antonio outscored Oklahoma City, 34-18 in the second quarter to grab a 14-point halftime lead, then limited the Thunder to just 33 points in the second half for their seventh straight win at the AT&T Center.
The number one thing to point to for OKC’s 2-0 series hole is the absence of forward Serge Ibaka, who missed the first two games with a calf injury and is questionable for the remainder of the series. The Spurs are scoring at will in the paint, putting up 66 points in the series opener and 54 in Game 2. Danny Green lit up the Thunder for seven three-pointers in Game 2, while the Thunder converted just 2-of-20 shots from downtown on Wednesday night.
The Thunder beat the Spurs four times in the regular season and will look for some sort of magic heading back to Chesapeake Energy Arena for the next two games to save their season. OKC owns a 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS record at home in the playoffs, while allowing at least 100 points in each of the last six home contests (two games went to overtime). The Spurs have lost seven straight visits to Oklahoma City, while failing to cover each time, all in the role of an underdog. The last time Gregg Popovich’s team won on the road in this series came on March 16, 2012.
Many fans will remember the last time the Thunder trailed the Spurs, 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals and it came in 2012. Oklahoma City stormed back to win four straight games and eliminate San Antonio before falling to Miami in five games of the NBA Finals. How rare was it that San Antonio lost a game much less a series when taking a 2-0 edge? Since 2012, the Spurs have grabbed a 2-0 series lead six times and won Game 3 five times. The lone loss came in Game 3 at Oklahoma City, 102-82 as four-point underdogs.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David points to the fact the Spurs haven’t been great in the underdog role this season, “I was a little surprised to see San Antonio listed as an underdog in Game 3 due to the outcomes in the first two games and the fact that the Spurs have been receiving a ton of public action in the playoffs. However, it’s very apparent that the oddsmakers know how to gauge San Antonio this season. The Spurs have been underdogs 11 times, once in the playoffs, and they’ve produced a pedestrian 6-5 record in this role. You should make a note that two of those five losses came against the Thunder.”
David shines a light on San Antonio’s offensive struggles when it hits the road against its rival, “Oklahoma City should be confident in Game 3 based on its head-to-head history at home against San Antonio. Including the two wins this regular season, the Thunder have won seven straight meetings versus the Spurs from Chesapeake Energy Arena. What’s even more impressive during this run is that the Spurs have been held under 100 six times and under 90 three times. For whatever reason, the San Antonio offense hasn’t found a way to click at this venue.”
Obviously, the Thunder needs to get major production from its two stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined to shoot just 13-of-40 from the floor for 30 points in Game 2. In the last meeting at Chesapeake Energy Arena in early April, Durant and Westbrook put up 55 points between them as the Thunder snapped San Antonio’s 19-game winning streak, 106-94 as three-point favorites.
From the totals standpoint, David mentions that the number slightly dropping after OKC’s struggles on Wednesday, “Total bettors are starting a number hovering around 208 points for Game 3, which is a tad lower than the first two games (209, 210) in this series. OKC looked dreadful offensively in Game 2 and it’s rare to see this club have poor offensive numbers in back-to-back games. In their seven home playoff games, the Thunder have scored 100-plus in six of them and 99 in the other. Rather than look at the ‘over’ for the game, I believe ‘over’ in Oklahoma City’s team total has tremendous value, which is 105½ points.”
The Thunder opened as 2½-point favorites, with the number dropping to two at several books. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on TNT.
