Jonathan young
Boston Red Sox + 105 ~ Clay Buchholz gets the nod for the Red Sox on Sunday as Boston look to avoid a 3 game sweep at Toronto. I really like Buchholz in this spot today, a huge part of my baseball handicapping system are ‘Pitcher Splits’. In 3 road starts in 2015, Buchholz is 1-1 with a 1.22 WHIP whilst holding opposing line-ups to a stingy 0.219 BA. His 2015 Day/Night splits are very intriguing too, 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 4 ‘Night’ starts compared to a 1.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2 matinee outings. Buchholz has had success against the Blue Jays throughout his career, going 8-6 with a 3.26 ERA since 2010. RA Dickey will toe the rubber for Toronto this afternoon; he has been solid in 3 home starts this season but has issued 12 walks in those 3 outings. His command has been slightly down from last year and his strikeouts have decreased also. Boston’s offensive productivity has really been stale over the past week or so, highlighted by a 2-26 w/ RISP effort along with stranding 25 runners on base over their last 3 games. I like the Red Sox to notch a win today, there is a reason this line is + 105 and I believe Boston is the right side to be on.
Cleveland Indians - 140 ~ It’s been a run fest of a series so far between the Twins and Indians with 23 runs being tallied in the opening 2 games. Sunday will see Trevor May take on Danny Salazar in a major pitching advantage for the home team. Although the Twins have been blasting the baseball all over the park over the last couple of weeks, they have been cooler against right handed starters (3.5 runs per game, 0.242 BA) this season. Trevor May has improved his pitch velocity since last year but is still susceptible to leaving the ball in the middle of the plate, especially against left handed hitters (0.303 BA, 1.53 WHIP). That could be a major issue today as the Cleveland Indians will have 4/5 lefties in their line-up this afternoon. Danny Salazar is 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 4 starts this season and has been the most consistent Indians pitcher. He sports a 1.08 WHIP and has issued only 5 walks whilst striking out 37 batters in 26 IP. I’ll lay the chalk with the Indians in this one, they fell short on Saturday but a I like them to get the series win on Sunday.
San Francisco Giants - 110 ~ Ryan Vogelsong is a different pitcher by the Bay area, he has pitched to a 2.89 ERA over the last 2 years in San Francisco and at this price, I like the Giants on Sunday. Matt Latos has been a decent pickup for the Marlins this season, although his location of pitches hasn’t been as consistent as last year. One key factor to consider is that left handed batters are pounding Latos this year to the sound of a 0.317 BA, 1.74 WHIP and a 6.97 ERA. Those numbers are from 10 1/3 IP. The Giants are one of the most left sided line-ups in baseball and will field 4/5 today, I like San Francisco to get the win and to ensure a 2-2 split in this 4 game series.
