BRIAN GABRIELLE
At this week?s Shell Houston Open, take Padraig Harrington (12-1), 1/6 unit: One of the commentators on the Golf Channel (I think it was Kelly Tilghman)noted recently that Harrington doesn?t have as wide a putting stance as usual. I noticed it, too. It doesn?tlook like he?s taking a dump when he putts anymore.Whatever the change, he?s No. 1 in putts per round and second in putts per hole. Take Aaron Baddeley (33-1), 1/6 unit: Let?s not forge tabout Bads. I think he deserves more credit for his success in recent years than he gives to Jesus Christ.Reminds me of what Will Clark once said in an SI article about born again Christians, referring to a home run he once hit off a born again: ?God didn?t hang that slider.? Anyway, Bads is the real deal after all, with or without divine support. He last played a couple weeks ago at the WGC ? CA Championship, where he finished T15. And speaking of putting, the best part of Bads?s game, he?s T19 in putts per round and 4th in putts per hole. Take Phil Mickelson (8-1), 1/6 unit: I reckon you have to take him to cover. It?s been a while since I?ve taken Lefty. Having won the week before The Masters and then going on to win The Masters in 2006 means something to Mickelson, psychologically. It?s generally dangerous territory trying to get into his head but you know that at the very least the tourney will have his undivided attention this week. Sometimes that?s not apparent with other players looking at this as a tune-up for Augusta.
Last Week: Another great week, as we both picked the winner (Denny Hamlin, at +500) and won our head-to-head match-up (Jimmie Johnson squeaked by Dale Earnhardt Jr. at -135) at Martinsville. In six races this season, we've given you six winning weeks. Last week, on 1.5 units wagered, we profited 1.24 units, a return of 87.2%. For the season, on 8 units wagered, we've netted a positive 4.99 units, a return of 62.4%. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have made 3.74 units on 4 units wagered, a return of 93.5%; for the season, that would give you a profit of 19.37 units on 23 units wagered, a return of 84.2%. But there's clearly a bit more risk associated with that strategy.) (All straight-up and head-to-head odds are from World Sports Exchange.) Take Carl Edwards (+450), 1/6th unit. Edwards is my heavy favorite this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. He dominated the Car of Tomorrow races at the downforce tracks in Fontana and Las Vegas in the season's first month, and he would've won at Atlanta if he hadn't blown his transmission from the lead. His COT program on the high-banked intermediate speedways is second to none right now, and he won a race at TMS back in 2005. Considering Atlanta and Texas are so similarly configured, I expect the No. 98 to be the day's strongest car. Take Kyle Busch (+700), 1/6th unit. The Younger Busch was the day's second-best car in Atlanta last month, and wound up winning the race when Edwards blew his engine. The Shrub was also fourth at Fontana and a respectable 11th at Las Vegas; the new advantages the Toyotas seem to have in horsepower have served Busch very well. He qualified fourth for Sunday's event (Edwards qualified second), so you'd have to think he's got enough speed to at least be hanging around again if Edwards runs into more mechanical difficulties. Take Greg Biffle (+1100), 1/6th unit. I was set to take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+550) in this spot, because he was a very strong third in Atlanta just a few weeks ago, but then he had to go out and win the pole on Friday afternoon. That pushed his odds down to near-favorite levels, so I'm going to give him a pass and find some better value on the board. Biffle represents that value. He won here in '05, too, and finished third at Vegas and fourth at Atlanta in the last month. The Biff likes a loose racecar, and the COT does tend to get loose at places like this. He's a championship contender this year, and with a little luck, he could give us a great big profit on Sunday
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