Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
PHOENIX SUNS -9
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Houston has won back-to-back games against playoff bound teams; suffice to say I expect a letdown tonight in an arena its seen little success in.
Phoenix has grounded the Rockets in three straight games this year; the Suns have averaged more than 110 points in those contests and Amare Stoudemire has averaged nearly 30 points.
Keep in mind that not only is Houston 0-5 ATS its last five vs. the Suns, its also just 3-7 ATS as a road dog 6 1/2 to 9 nine points; just 15-19 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponents.
On the other side of the court: Phoenix has lost back-to-back games; I expect it to get back on track this evening though in front of the home town crowd.
In fact, the Suns are coming off an embarrassing performance in which they scored just 12 third quarter points en route to a 96-91 loss against the Thunder on Friday night.
Jumping into the fourth spot or better is obviously what this team will try to achieve; “We have to understand that every game now is going to be a playoff game,” Alvin Gentry said.
The Suns are 4-2 ATS their last six overall; 5-0-1 ATS their last six at home.
Bottom line: I expect the Suns to come out firing on all cylinders in this one as they answer Gentry's call; Phoenix has had little problem dispatching of the Rockets so far this season and now with the added motivation of ending the season strong and erasing a couple of sub par efforts from their minds, I feel this line is too low as I expect a blowout; *10* "BIG EA$Y" on PHOENIX![/FONT]
PHOENIX SUNS -9
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Houston has won back-to-back games against playoff bound teams; suffice to say I expect a letdown tonight in an arena its seen little success in.
Phoenix has grounded the Rockets in three straight games this year; the Suns have averaged more than 110 points in those contests and Amare Stoudemire has averaged nearly 30 points.
Keep in mind that not only is Houston 0-5 ATS its last five vs. the Suns, its also just 3-7 ATS as a road dog 6 1/2 to 9 nine points; just 15-19 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponents.
On the other side of the court: Phoenix has lost back-to-back games; I expect it to get back on track this evening though in front of the home town crowd.
In fact, the Suns are coming off an embarrassing performance in which they scored just 12 third quarter points en route to a 96-91 loss against the Thunder on Friday night.
Jumping into the fourth spot or better is obviously what this team will try to achieve; “We have to understand that every game now is going to be a playoff game,” Alvin Gentry said.
The Suns are 4-2 ATS their last six overall; 5-0-1 ATS their last six at home.
Bottom line: I expect the Suns to come out firing on all cylinders in this one as they answer Gentry's call; Phoenix has had little problem dispatching of the Rockets so far this season and now with the added motivation of ending the season strong and erasing a couple of sub par efforts from their minds, I feel this line is too low as I expect a blowout; *10* "BIG EA$Y" on PHOENIX![/FONT]
GoodFella
BOSTON RED SOX -135
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Listed Pitchers (Bucholz vs Meche)
The first thing I want to say about this game--is that Gil Meche is coming off the DL and he WILL have a LIMITED pitch count, stated directly from the Royals Manager--and then its that hideous KC bullpen to try and contain this Red Sox offense that exploded yesterday--and even gave a few of their regualr starters a day off in Cameron, Beltre, and Big Pappi--Being a starter fresh off the DL (shoulder) and being on a "pitch count" and drawing a team like Boston--who are one of the better teams in all of baseball at "working counts" & flat out their game plan every day is to make the opposing pitcher really work vs them and drive up pitch counts and make their games a battle of the bullpens--which they have an edge over about every other team in baseball--Clay Buchholz takes the ball for the Red Sox--and he definitely has shut down stuff and would be a #3 starter on 90% of MLB teams. Buchholz should also be extremely motivated today as well--is he is battling Tim Wakefield for the 5th spot in the starting rotation--as Dice-K will be returning to the rotation in about 2 weeks. Buchholz has made 2 starts vs KC in his short career--and he has pitched very well- 2.84 ERA--12 2/3 IP--His only start vs KC last season was a game at Kauffman stadium--and he pitched outstanding--earning the Win--going 6 2/3 IP- zero runs--5 hits allowed--zero walks--and 8 K's. One additional thing I like about Buchholz in this spot--is last season--he did his best pitching away from Fenway Park and on the road--as he went 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA.
Gil Mech made one start vs the Red Sox last season--and he got blasted--at Fenway--lasting just 3 2/3 IP--giving up 8 runs (6 ER)--6 hits--2 HR's--& 3 walks. Also--Meche was a disaster pitching in his own ballpark last season (Kauffman Stadium)--10 starts--1-5 record--5.66 ERA with a WHIP of 1.58--Let's take a look at how these Red Sox have faired during their career vs Meche--Pedroia (6-11, 2 2B, 3B, .414 OBP)--V.Martinez (10-41, 3 2B, HR)--Youk (7-13, 2B, HR, .600 OBP)--Ortiz (9-24, 2B, 4 HR's, .423 OBP--Drew (3-10, 2B, .417 OBP)--Cameron (1-4, HR, .500 OBP)--Scutaro (7-24, 2B, HR, .414 OBP)--
So with all this being said--I fully expect the Red Sox to execute their usual gameplan & really make Meche work and they will do all they can to build his pitch count up and get to that Royals bullpen--which besides closer Soria--is really a utter disaster--and the Red Sox CLEARLY have a much better bullpen--and a rested one at that coming off yesterday's 8-3 win and Beckett's 7 strong innings. I look for the Red Sox sticks to stay hot and I obviously really like the edge we have in the bullpens--This all points to a nice Red Sox Winner here on Sunday.[/FONT]
BOSTON RED SOX -135
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Listed Pitchers (Bucholz vs Meche)
The first thing I want to say about this game--is that Gil Meche is coming off the DL and he WILL have a LIMITED pitch count, stated directly from the Royals Manager--and then its that hideous KC bullpen to try and contain this Red Sox offense that exploded yesterday--and even gave a few of their regualr starters a day off in Cameron, Beltre, and Big Pappi--Being a starter fresh off the DL (shoulder) and being on a "pitch count" and drawing a team like Boston--who are one of the better teams in all of baseball at "working counts" & flat out their game plan every day is to make the opposing pitcher really work vs them and drive up pitch counts and make their games a battle of the bullpens--which they have an edge over about every other team in baseball--Clay Buchholz takes the ball for the Red Sox--and he definitely has shut down stuff and would be a #3 starter on 90% of MLB teams. Buchholz should also be extremely motivated today as well--is he is battling Tim Wakefield for the 5th spot in the starting rotation--as Dice-K will be returning to the rotation in about 2 weeks. Buchholz has made 2 starts vs KC in his short career--and he has pitched very well- 2.84 ERA--12 2/3 IP--His only start vs KC last season was a game at Kauffman stadium--and he pitched outstanding--earning the Win--going 6 2/3 IP- zero runs--5 hits allowed--zero walks--and 8 K's. One additional thing I like about Buchholz in this spot--is last season--he did his best pitching away from Fenway Park and on the road--as he went 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA.
Gil Mech made one start vs the Red Sox last season--and he got blasted--at Fenway--lasting just 3 2/3 IP--giving up 8 runs (6 ER)--6 hits--2 HR's--& 3 walks. Also--Meche was a disaster pitching in his own ballpark last season (Kauffman Stadium)--10 starts--1-5 record--5.66 ERA with a WHIP of 1.58--Let's take a look at how these Red Sox have faired during their career vs Meche--Pedroia (6-11, 2 2B, 3B, .414 OBP)--V.Martinez (10-41, 3 2B, HR)--Youk (7-13, 2B, HR, .600 OBP)--Ortiz (9-24, 2B, 4 HR's, .423 OBP--Drew (3-10, 2B, .417 OBP)--Cameron (1-4, HR, .500 OBP)--Scutaro (7-24, 2B, HR, .414 OBP)--
So with all this being said--I fully expect the Red Sox to execute their usual gameplan & really make Meche work and they will do all they can to build his pitch count up and get to that Royals bullpen--which besides closer Soria--is really a utter disaster--and the Red Sox CLEARLY have a much better bullpen--and a rested one at that coming off yesterday's 8-3 win and Beckett's 7 strong innings. I look for the Red Sox sticks to stay hot and I obviously really like the edge we have in the bullpens--This all points to a nice Red Sox Winner here on Sunday.[/FONT]
Tony George
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LA is resting players and really are not in sync with anything. A meaningless game for LA, while Portland in a must win scenario. 7-3 ATS their last 10 against LA, and they have all been lower scoring games. LA is not playing with intensity, Bryant will not play the whole game if any. 14-6-1 ATS on the road for the Blazers their last 21. They are playing with purpose as an underdog. A must take for me.
Play 1 Unit on Portland. [/FONT]
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LA is resting players and really are not in sync with anything. A meaningless game for LA, while Portland in a must win scenario. 7-3 ATS their last 10 against LA, and they have all been lower scoring games. LA is not playing with intensity, Bryant will not play the whole game if any. 14-6-1 ATS on the road for the Blazers their last 21. They are playing with purpose as an underdog. A must take for me.
Play 1 Unit on Portland. [/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
MIAMI HEAT -4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Heat currently are sitting sixth in the NBA Eastern Conference playoff standings, just a half game behind the Bucks for the fifth spot. However, more importantly the Heat are still stinging from their home loss to the Pistons on Friday, snapping their nine game winning streak. The Heat lost to the Pistons despite shooting 55% from the field. Their downfall was committing 16 turnovers to only 8 for the Pistons. Another distributing issue was the Heat defense as they allowed 106 points, the first time an opponent has hit the century mark in the last ten games. For the Knicks, defense has been a big problem as they can’t stop anybody. In their past 10 games the Knicks have allowed every opponent to score 100 or more points, winning only three of those 10 games. The Knicks haven’t been able to stop Wade and the Heat as Miami has defeated these Knicks four straight times averaging 112.5 points and an average margin of victory of 14 points. Wade had a subpar game on Friday night against the Pistons scoring only 19 points, and none in the final 13 minutes of the game. Miami has been a good road team this season posting a 23-16 ATS mark and they’re a very strong 26-13 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in the last two years. Look for the Heat to stymie the Knicks offense, and for Wade and his teammates to score at will against a weak NY defense. Our Vegas Icon play is on Miami![/FONT]
MIAMI HEAT -4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Heat currently are sitting sixth in the NBA Eastern Conference playoff standings, just a half game behind the Bucks for the fifth spot. However, more importantly the Heat are still stinging from their home loss to the Pistons on Friday, snapping their nine game winning streak. The Heat lost to the Pistons despite shooting 55% from the field. Their downfall was committing 16 turnovers to only 8 for the Pistons. Another distributing issue was the Heat defense as they allowed 106 points, the first time an opponent has hit the century mark in the last ten games. For the Knicks, defense has been a big problem as they can’t stop anybody. In their past 10 games the Knicks have allowed every opponent to score 100 or more points, winning only three of those 10 games. The Knicks haven’t been able to stop Wade and the Heat as Miami has defeated these Knicks four straight times averaging 112.5 points and an average margin of victory of 14 points. Wade had a subpar game on Friday night against the Pistons scoring only 19 points, and none in the final 13 minutes of the game. Miami has been a good road team this season posting a 23-16 ATS mark and they’re a very strong 26-13 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in the last two years. Look for the Heat to stymie the Knicks offense, and for Wade and his teammates to score at will against a weak NY defense. Our Vegas Icon play is on Miami![/FONT]
Spartan
CHICAGO BULLS -2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The way these two clubs have been playing lately this game is likely to be kind of like Moe & Curly slapping one another around the see who is the toughest stooge!
The Raptors have dropped 17 of their last 24 games and excuse my bluntness but right now they basically suck. They might pull it together today at home without Bosh and get it done against the Bulls but when push comes to shove I trust Chicago here more than I do this Raptors bunch.
Should at least be a fun atmosphere in Toronto but I just cannot see their fans exiting with smiles after this one is concluded. Neither team would stick around long come playoff time but I can see Derrick Rose stepping up today and carrying the Bulls past Toronto. Take Chicago.[/FONT]
CHICAGO BULLS -2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The way these two clubs have been playing lately this game is likely to be kind of like Moe & Curly slapping one another around the see who is the toughest stooge!
The Raptors have dropped 17 of their last 24 games and excuse my bluntness but right now they basically suck. They might pull it together today at home without Bosh and get it done against the Bulls but when push comes to shove I trust Chicago here more than I do this Raptors bunch.
Should at least be a fun atmosphere in Toronto but I just cannot see their fans exiting with smiles after this one is concluded. Neither team would stick around long come playoff time but I can see Derrick Rose stepping up today and carrying the Bulls past Toronto. Take Chicago.[/FONT]
Rocketman
LOS ANGELES DODGERS +115
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LA Dodgers are scoring 6.2 runs per game overall this year. Florida bullpen has a 10.11 ERA at home this season. LA Dodgers are 6-2 at Florida the past 3 years. Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series. Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Dodgers are 38-16 in their last 54 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Marlins are 4-9 in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a favorite. Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West. Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games. Marlins are 2-6 in Sanchezs last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 2-6 in Sanchezs last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll play LA Dodgers for 4 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
LOS ANGELES DODGERS +115
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LA Dodgers are scoring 6.2 runs per game overall this year. Florida bullpen has a 10.11 ERA at home this season. LA Dodgers are 6-2 at Florida the past 3 years. Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series. Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Dodgers are 38-16 in their last 54 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Marlins are 4-9 in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a favorite. Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West. Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games. Marlins are 2-6 in Sanchezs last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 2-6 in Sanchezs last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll play LA Dodgers for 4 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Astros found their bats for one inning yesterday but lost yet another game, making them the league's only winless team. Houston has never faced Roy Halladay and their bats will be clueless without getting a few good looks at his stuff. Both Roy's are great pitchers but Oswalt has struggled in his past few starts dating back to the end of last year and the Phils' bats are just way too hot and potent for Houston. Look for another gem today from Halladay. Take the Phillies -1.5 runs (-125).[/FONT]
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Astros found their bats for one inning yesterday but lost yet another game, making them the league's only winless team. Houston has never faced Roy Halladay and their bats will be clueless without getting a few good looks at his stuff. Both Roy's are great pitchers but Oswalt has struggled in his past few starts dating back to the end of last year and the Phils' bats are just way too hot and potent for Houston. Look for another gem today from Halladay. Take the Phillies -1.5 runs (-125).[/FONT]
FYI, for those who aren't familiar with the Sports Buffet, Morrison compiles the picks of a bunch of different cappers (including Steve Merrill, Marc Lawrence, Ness to name a few) and where there is a significant ratio of these guys falling to one side, it is a Best Bet.
In MLB last two days best bets are 3-0 and 3-1 and good bets were 3-1 yesterday (didn't have them broken out on Friday).
In MLB last two days best bets are 3-0 and 3-1 and good bets were 3-1 yesterday (didn't have them broken out on Friday).
ROBERT FERRINGO
1.5-Unit Play. Take #902 N.Y. Mets (-1.5, -125) over Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take #907 Philadelphia (-1.5, -125) over Houston
1-Unit Play. Take #910 Colorado (-1.5, -120) over San Diego
1-Unit Play. Take #914 Arizona (-1.5, -105) over Pittsburgh
0.5-Unit Play. Take #917 Cleveland (+1.5, -120) over Detroit
0.5-Unit Play. Take #921 N.Y. Yankees (-105) over Tampa Bay
TOTALS:
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Cleveland at Detroit
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 San Diego at Colorado
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Philadelphia at Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take #902 N.Y. Mets (-1.5, -125) over Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take #907 Philadelphia (-1.5, -125) over Houston
1-Unit Play. Take #910 Colorado (-1.5, -120) over San Diego
1-Unit Play. Take #914 Arizona (-1.5, -105) over Pittsburgh
0.5-Unit Play. Take #917 Cleveland (+1.5, -120) over Detroit
0.5-Unit Play. Take #921 N.Y. Yankees (-105) over Tampa Bay
TOTALS:
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Cleveland at Detroit
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 San Diego at Colorado
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Philadelphia at Houston
DICEITUPONLINE
Rizzo:
Phillies -185 = 10 dimes
Phillies -1.5 -110 = 10 Dimes
Nationals +220 = 10 Dimes
Rays -120 = 10 Dimes
Stansfield:
Phillies -185 = 15 dimes
Detroit -1.5 +110 = 5 Dimes
Fireman:
Phillies -185 = 10 dimes
Card -145 = 10 Dimes
Yanks -105 = 5 Dimes
Mets -1.5 -115 = 5 Dimes
Hammer:
St louis cards 15 dimes
Angels 15 dimes
NY Rangers (NHL) 20 dimes
Rizzo:
Phillies -185 = 10 dimes
Phillies -1.5 -110 = 10 Dimes
Nationals +220 = 10 Dimes
Rays -120 = 10 Dimes
Stansfield:
Phillies -185 = 15 dimes
Detroit -1.5 +110 = 5 Dimes
Fireman:
Phillies -185 = 10 dimes
Card -145 = 10 Dimes
Yanks -105 = 5 Dimes
Mets -1.5 -115 = 5 Dimes
Hammer:
St louis cards 15 dimes
Angels 15 dimes
NY Rangers (NHL) 20 dimes
