STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/23/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 3/23/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Mercer beat Tennessee 75-67 LY in Knoxville in a first round NIT game, shooting 56% inside arc while turning ball over only eight times. Bears were 23-28 from line versus Duke Friday, shot 56% inside arc- they're 78-31 over last three years, so this isn't a fluke. Mercer won at Ole Miss back in December, lost by 3 at Texas. Tennessee won seven of last eight, with 56-49 loss to Florida in SEC tourney; they beat SC-Upstate 74-65 back in November, its only game versus an A-Sun opponent. Volunteers are playing for third time in five days, beating Iowa in OT Wednesday, beating UMass by 19 Friday. Favorites covered only three previous second round games with an 11-seed meeting a 14-seed
•Over last 5+ years, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round. Virginia was down 5 at half Friday, only 9th #1 seed to trail a 16-seed at the half, but they won comfortably. Cavaliers won 17 of last 18 games since tough loss at Duke in early January; they're #7 in country, allowing opponents to make only 41.7% of its 2-point shots. Memphis is just 3-3 in its last six games; they turn ball over too much, don't make enough foul shots for team with their talent- they're 5-8 versus top 30 teams this year- they've played #49 schedule nationally, are #62 in experience. Virginia won by 3 over SMU in its only game versus an AAC opponent.
•Since 1999, #10 seeds who beat 7-seed in first round are 18-7 versus spread in second round. Stanford is #21 in country in experience, #13 in height; they played #20 schedule in country. Both Cardinal guards played 40:00 Friday, third starter played 36 in brickfest win over New Mexico- they held Williams/Kirk to combined 1-12 from floor. Kansas was 32-all at half with EKU Friday, Over last 5+ years, #2 seeds are 11-7 versus spread in this round. Jayhawks split last six games; their defense isn't as good without Embiid; they lost at Colorado in only games versus Pac-12 squad.
•Wichita State is 35-0, they were in Final Four LY, while Kentucky was losing NIT game at Robert Morris. Shockers beat Tennessee by 9, beat Alabama by 5 in its two games versus SEC opponents. Over last 5+ years, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round. Kentucky is last in country in experience; they're 4-8 this season versus top 50 teams- they turned ball over 15 times on 61 possessions in Friday's ugly win versus Kansas State. Last time Wichita won game by less than 10 points was at No Iowa on Feb 8- this is their Super Bowl, the game Dick Vitale says they're going to lose. Game opened at Wichita -2.5, is now -4.5 or -5.
•Baylor won 11 of last 13 games; they dismantled Nebraska Friday 74-60 going 38-48 on foul line, with Nebraska coach getting tossed for carping to refs. Bears are athletic but do not defend 3's well, allowing opponents to hit 36.1% of them, bad news versus Creighton squad that leads country, making 42.1% behind arc. Favorites covered nine of last 11 second round games pitting 3-seed versus 6-seed. Bluejays scored 72+ wins in their last seven wins; they scored 69 or less points in their last six losses. Baylor held five of its last eight opponents under 70 points. Guys on ESPNU during week seemed pessimistic about Creighton's chances in this game.
•Iowa State's Niang (foot) is done for year, huge blow for Cyclone squad whose bench is in bottom 25 in country in minutes played. State won its last five games, scoring 85+ points in four of five games. North Carolina snuck by gutty Providence by hoop Friday, its first win in three games; Tar Heels were torched by PG Cotton (36 points, 8 assists). Tar Heels lost by 3 at home to Texas in their only game versus Big 12 opponent this season. Favorites covered nine of last 11 second round games pitting a #3-seed versus 6-seed, but like we said, Niang's injury just makes Cyclones unplayable in this spot.
•Arizona won eight of last ten games but after being up 12 on Weber St. at half Friday, Wildcats struggled to put away a 14-6 Big Sky team, with final score 68-59. Gonzaga was sharp in fairly easy win over Oklahoma State, running out to 9-0 lead and coasting home; they won last six in a row, beat Pac-12 doormat Washington State by 16 in only game versus Pac-12 squad. Zags won last meeting with Arizona by 11 two years ago; they lost last four second round games and seven of last nine- their last Sweet 16 was in 2009. Since '01, Arizona is 7-1 in this round. Over last 5+ seasons, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round.
•Stephen F Austin pulled rabbit out of hat with amazing comeback in last minute versus VCU, beating Rams in OT; #12 seeds covered six of last seven tries as an underdog in this round. Lumberjacks haven't lost since 66-58 loss at East Tennessee, which is coached by Murray Bartow, whose dad replaced John Wooden at UCLA. Bruins won last four games, three by 17+ points; they're #25 in country, making 38.9% from arc. Over last 12 years, #4 seeds are 11-21 versus spread as favorite in this round. SFA is #4 in country, forcing turnovers 24.1% of time- they lost at Texas by 10, best team they had played until beating VCU Friday.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 68.4, OPPONENT 53.0.
-- ARIZONA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 69.4, OPPONENT 59.1.
-- TENNESSEE is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was TENNESSEE 34.9, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- KANSAS is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was KANSAS 31.5, OPPONENT 32.2.
-- GREGG MARSHALL is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of WICHITA ST.
The average score was MARSHALL 69.7, OPPONENT 57.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 66.8, OPPONENT 55.0.
-- N CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 77.9, OPPONENT 76.3.
-- STANFORD is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 37.2, OPPONENT 28.2.
-- CLEMSON is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEMSON 30.2, OPPONENT 32.2.
-- JOHN GROCE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of ILLINOIS.
The average score was GROCE 60.3, OPPONENT 69.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - An underdog versus the money line (SOUTHERN MISS) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), dominant rebounding team (>=+6 reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game).
(47-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.2%, +40.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.8, Opponent 62.2 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The situation's record this season is: (12-0, +12 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-1, +24.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (107-31, +41.1 units).
-- Play Against - A road team (CLEMSON) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7
The average score in these games was: Team 69.9, Opponent 65.7 (Average point differential = +4.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (32.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (70-49).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CREIGHTON) - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games, in a NCAA tournament game, with four starters returning from last season.
(62-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +37.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.5
The average score in these games was: Team 68.5, Opponent 68.7 (Total points scored = 137.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 51 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (191-132).
-- Play On - An underdog versus the 1rst half line (GONZAGA) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.3, Opponent 30.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
-- Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (WICHITA ST) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(58-14 since 1997.) (80.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 62.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.4, Opponent 33.4 (Total first half points scored = 66.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-10).
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Sunday, 3/23/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________
Sunday's Notebook
•Mercer beat Tennessee 75-67 LY in Knoxville in a first round NIT game, shooting 56% inside arc while turning ball over only eight times. Bears were 23-28 from line versus Duke Friday, shot 56% inside arc- they're 78-31 over last three years, so this isn't a fluke. Mercer won at Ole Miss back in December, lost by 3 at Texas. Tennessee won seven of last eight, with 56-49 loss to Florida in SEC tourney; they beat SC-Upstate 74-65 back in November, its only game versus an A-Sun opponent. Volunteers are playing for third time in five days, beating Iowa in OT Wednesday, beating UMass by 19 Friday. Favorites covered only three previous second round games with an 11-seed meeting a 14-seed
•Over last 5+ years, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round. Virginia was down 5 at half Friday, only 9th #1 seed to trail a 16-seed at the half, but they won comfortably. Cavaliers won 17 of last 18 games since tough loss at Duke in early January; they're #7 in country, allowing opponents to make only 41.7% of its 2-point shots. Memphis is just 3-3 in its last six games; they turn ball over too much, don't make enough foul shots for team with their talent- they're 5-8 versus top 30 teams this year- they've played #49 schedule nationally, are #62 in experience. Virginia won by 3 over SMU in its only game versus an AAC opponent.
•Since 1999, #10 seeds who beat 7-seed in first round are 18-7 versus spread in second round. Stanford is #21 in country in experience, #13 in height; they played #20 schedule in country. Both Cardinal guards played 40:00 Friday, third starter played 36 in brickfest win over New Mexico- they held Williams/Kirk to combined 1-12 from floor. Kansas was 32-all at half with EKU Friday, Over last 5+ years, #2 seeds are 11-7 versus spread in this round. Jayhawks split last six games; their defense isn't as good without Embiid; they lost at Colorado in only games versus Pac-12 squad.
•Wichita State is 35-0, they were in Final Four LY, while Kentucky was losing NIT game at Robert Morris. Shockers beat Tennessee by 9, beat Alabama by 5 in its two games versus SEC opponents. Over last 5+ years, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round. Kentucky is last in country in experience; they're 4-8 this season versus top 50 teams- they turned ball over 15 times on 61 possessions in Friday's ugly win versus Kansas State. Last time Wichita won game by less than 10 points was at No Iowa on Feb 8- this is their Super Bowl, the game Dick Vitale says they're going to lose. Game opened at Wichita -2.5, is now -4.5 or -5.
•Baylor won 11 of last 13 games; they dismantled Nebraska Friday 74-60 going 38-48 on foul line, with Nebraska coach getting tossed for carping to refs. Bears are athletic but do not defend 3's well, allowing opponents to hit 36.1% of them, bad news versus Creighton squad that leads country, making 42.1% behind arc. Favorites covered nine of last 11 second round games pitting 3-seed versus 6-seed. Bluejays scored 72+ wins in their last seven wins; they scored 69 or less points in their last six losses. Baylor held five of its last eight opponents under 70 points. Guys on ESPNU during week seemed pessimistic about Creighton's chances in this game.
•Iowa State's Niang (foot) is done for year, huge blow for Cyclone squad whose bench is in bottom 25 in country in minutes played. State won its last five games, scoring 85+ points in four of five games. North Carolina snuck by gutty Providence by hoop Friday, its first win in three games; Tar Heels were torched by PG Cotton (36 points, 8 assists). Tar Heels lost by 3 at home to Texas in their only game versus Big 12 opponent this season. Favorites covered nine of last 11 second round games pitting a #3-seed versus 6-seed, but like we said, Niang's injury just makes Cyclones unplayable in this spot.
•Arizona won eight of last ten games but after being up 12 on Weber St. at half Friday, Wildcats struggled to put away a 14-6 Big Sky team, with final score 68-59. Gonzaga was sharp in fairly easy win over Oklahoma State, running out to 9-0 lead and coasting home; they won last six in a row, beat Pac-12 doormat Washington State by 16 in only game versus Pac-12 squad. Zags won last meeting with Arizona by 11 two years ago; they lost last four second round games and seven of last nine- their last Sweet 16 was in 2009. Since '01, Arizona is 7-1 in this round. Over last 5+ seasons, #1 seeds are 13-7-1 versus spread in this round.
•Stephen F Austin pulled rabbit out of hat with amazing comeback in last minute versus VCU, beating Rams in OT; #12 seeds covered six of last seven tries as an underdog in this round. Lumberjacks haven't lost since 66-58 loss at East Tennessee, which is coached by Murray Bartow, whose dad replaced John Wooden at UCLA. Bruins won last four games, three by 17+ points; they're #25 in country, making 38.9% from arc. Over last 12 years, #4 seeds are 11-21 versus spread as favorite in this round. SFA is #4 in country, forcing turnovers 24.1% of time- they lost at Texas by 10, best team they had played until beating VCU Friday.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 68.4, OPPONENT 53.0.
-- ARIZONA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 69.4, OPPONENT 59.1.
-- TENNESSEE is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was TENNESSEE 34.9, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- KANSAS is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was KANSAS 31.5, OPPONENT 32.2.
-- GREGG MARSHALL is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of WICHITA ST.
The average score was MARSHALL 69.7, OPPONENT 57.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 66.8, OPPONENT 55.0.
-- N CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 77.9, OPPONENT 76.3.
-- STANFORD is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 37.2, OPPONENT 28.2.
-- CLEMSON is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEMSON 30.2, OPPONENT 32.2.
-- JOHN GROCE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of ILLINOIS.
The average score was GROCE 60.3, OPPONENT 69.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - An underdog versus the money line (SOUTHERN MISS) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), dominant rebounding team (>=+6 reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game).
(47-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.2%, +40.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.8, Opponent 62.2 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The situation's record this season is: (12-0, +12 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-1, +24.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (107-31, +41.1 units).
-- Play Against - A road team (CLEMSON) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7
The average score in these games was: Team 69.9, Opponent 65.7 (Average point differential = +4.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (32.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (70-49).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CREIGHTON) - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games, in a NCAA tournament game, with four starters returning from last season.
(62-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +37.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.5
The average score in these games was: Team 68.5, Opponent 68.7 (Total points scored = 137.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 51 (60.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (191-132).
-- Play On - An underdog versus the 1rst half line (GONZAGA) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.3, Opponent 30.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
-- Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (WICHITA ST) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(58-14 since 1997.) (80.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 62.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.4, Opponent 33.4 (Total first half points scored = 66.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-10).
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