Steve Merril
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) HAWAII +7.5 (vs. Maryland) - 7:10 pm ET (TBS) #725
Hawaii comes into this game off an impressive win over California on Friday afternoon. The Warriors are 28-5 SU on the season, and four of their five losses have come by 8 points or less. Hawaii plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation with only 2 guys averaging more than 30 minutes per game. Their tremendous depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, and the team is likely to maintain their current level of play. Hawaii owns an efficient offense that is averaging 77.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field. The Warriors are also very aggressive as 23.3% of their points scored come from the free throw line. Hawaii’s calling card is outstanding defense; they give up just 66.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.
Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 26-8 SU record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament. However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home. Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games. That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a -2.1 point differential on the road this season. Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game in those games. The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.9% of their points scored), but only 26.4% of the points scored on Hawaii’s defense come from beyond the arc. My power ratings make Maryland just a 6-point favorite, so there’s good line value on Hawaii in this game. We’ll take the Warriors plus the points in this game on Sunday night.
Play HAWAII (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) WISCONSIN +4.5 (vs. Xavier) - 8:40 pm ET (TNT) #723
Xavier cruised to an 18-point win over Weber State on Friday night. The Musketeers played a perfect game as they shot 48.8% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 100% from the free throw line. Xavier was able to control tempo in that game as their superior talent forced Weber State into a fast-paced game. But Xavier is unlikely to do the same tonight against Wisconsin, and that will be a major factor in this game. The Musketeers need to play at a fast pace to be at their best. Xavier’s games have averaged 72.9 possession per game this season which was the third highest of all the teams in the tournament this season. Xavier was held to less than 70 points just four times this season, and they went 2-2 SU in those games. The posted total of 136.5 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering Xavier had an average posted game total of 149 this season.
Wisconsin survived a tough match-up against Pittsburgh on Friday night. The Badgers won that defensive scrum 47-43 as they played a Pittsburgh team that is a mirror image of themselves. Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four. The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense. Wisconsin has held 27 of their 33 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season. Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field. Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession. This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Sunday night.
Play WISCONSIN (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) ST. JOSEPH’S +6.5 (vs. Oregon) - 9:40 pm ET (TBS) #727
Oregon crushed an undermanned Holy Cross team by 39 points on Friday night. That dominating win over an inferior team did nothing to change the fact that Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory. Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac-12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed. Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final. And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win in the NCAA tournament. Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range. In fact, the Ducks score 52% of their points inside the arc, but only 50.8% of the points scored on St. Joseph’s defense come from 2-point range. Oregon is simply taking a big step-up in class here, and they are facing a team that plays a physical brand of basketball.
St. Joseph’s plays to the personality of their head coach Phil Martelli. The Hawks are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court. St. Joe’s is 28-7 SU on the season, and Martelli is brilliant in scheming defenses against high-octane offenses. The Hawks own a potent offense themselves as they are averaging 77.6 points per game. St. Joe’s averages an impressive 1.13 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season. Oregon is way overvalued, so we’ll take St. Joseph’s plus the points in this game on Sunday night.
Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+) as a 3% play.
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) HAWAII +7.5 (vs. Maryland) - 7:10 pm ET (TBS) #725
Hawaii comes into this game off an impressive win over California on Friday afternoon. The Warriors are 28-5 SU on the season, and four of their five losses have come by 8 points or less. Hawaii plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation with only 2 guys averaging more than 30 minutes per game. Their tremendous depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, and the team is likely to maintain their current level of play. Hawaii owns an efficient offense that is averaging 77.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field. The Warriors are also very aggressive as 23.3% of their points scored come from the free throw line. Hawaii’s calling card is outstanding defense; they give up just 66.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.
Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 26-8 SU record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament. However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home. Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games. That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a -2.1 point differential on the road this season. Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game in those games. The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.9% of their points scored), but only 26.4% of the points scored on Hawaii’s defense come from beyond the arc. My power ratings make Maryland just a 6-point favorite, so there’s good line value on Hawaii in this game. We’ll take the Warriors plus the points in this game on Sunday night.
Play HAWAII (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) WISCONSIN +4.5 (vs. Xavier) - 8:40 pm ET (TNT) #723
Xavier cruised to an 18-point win over Weber State on Friday night. The Musketeers played a perfect game as they shot 48.8% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 100% from the free throw line. Xavier was able to control tempo in that game as their superior talent forced Weber State into a fast-paced game. But Xavier is unlikely to do the same tonight against Wisconsin, and that will be a major factor in this game. The Musketeers need to play at a fast pace to be at their best. Xavier’s games have averaged 72.9 possession per game this season which was the third highest of all the teams in the tournament this season. Xavier was held to less than 70 points just four times this season, and they went 2-2 SU in those games. The posted total of 136.5 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering Xavier had an average posted game total of 149 this season.
Wisconsin survived a tough match-up against Pittsburgh on Friday night. The Badgers won that defensive scrum 47-43 as they played a Pittsburgh team that is a mirror image of themselves. Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four. The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense. Wisconsin has held 27 of their 33 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season. Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field. Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession. This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Sunday night.
Play WISCONSIN (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) ST. JOSEPH’S +6.5 (vs. Oregon) - 9:40 pm ET (TBS) #727
Oregon crushed an undermanned Holy Cross team by 39 points on Friday night. That dominating win over an inferior team did nothing to change the fact that Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory. Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac-12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed. Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final. And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win in the NCAA tournament. Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range. In fact, the Ducks score 52% of their points inside the arc, but only 50.8% of the points scored on St. Joseph’s defense come from 2-point range. Oregon is simply taking a big step-up in class here, and they are facing a team that plays a physical brand of basketball.
St. Joseph’s plays to the personality of their head coach Phil Martelli. The Hawks are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court. St. Joe’s is 28-7 SU on the season, and Martelli is brilliant in scheming defenses against high-octane offenses. The Hawks own a potent offense themselves as they are averaging 77.6 points per game. St. Joe’s averages an impressive 1.13 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season. Oregon is way overvalued, so we’ll take St. Joseph’s plus the points in this game on Sunday night.
Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+) as a 3% play.
D Esler = CBB Sides - Sunday, Mar 20 2016 5:15PM
#717 Va. Commonwealth 11.5(-120) Pinnacle vs #718 Oklahoma single-dime bet
Analysis: Missing good numbers - we're 2/2 on teasers so lets try â another one. VCU does well (usually) against three point shooting teams) so I do like them, and there is money all over the Badgers. I do think one of them wins SU so a small ML play is probably in order. Yes, I know the juice varies and not every book offers every bet, but most recreational books let you tease 5.5 point for -120. I think BetOnline might be -130.
VCU +11.5 to Wisconsin +10 (and we have options if VCU holds serve)
Pick Made: Mar 20 2016 10:44AM PST
#717 Va. Commonwealth 11.5(-120) Pinnacle vs #718 Oklahoma single-dime bet
Analysis: Missing good numbers - we're 2/2 on teasers so lets try â another one. VCU does well (usually) against three point shooting teams) so I do like them, and there is money all over the Badgers. I do think one of them wins SU so a small ML play is probably in order. Yes, I know the juice varies and not every book offers every bet, but most recreational books let you tease 5.5 point for -120. I think BetOnline might be -130.
VCU +11.5 to Wisconsin +10 (and we have options if VCU holds serve)
Pick Made: Mar 20 2016 10:44AM PST
D Esler = CBB ML - Sunday, Mar 20 2016 6:10PM
Money Line #722 Syracuse (-125) Pinnacle vs #721 Mid. Tenn single-dime bet
Analysis: I do think Syracuse wins - it's just not a great matchup for MTSU, but I won't lay those points in what ought to be a low scoring game - and I DO think Oregon wins by â I don't think they roll St. Joe's as badly as many might think, so for sure if the Orange will we'll consider taking St. Joe's with the points.
ML parlay:
Syracuse -260 to Oregon -325 = -123
Pick Made: Mar 20 2016 11:00AM PST
Money Line #722 Syracuse (-125) Pinnacle vs #721 Mid. Tenn single-dime bet
Analysis: I do think Syracuse wins - it's just not a great matchup for MTSU, but I won't lay those points in what ought to be a low scoring game - and I DO think Oregon wins by â I don't think they roll St. Joe's as badly as many might think, so for sure if the Orange will we'll consider taking St. Joe's with the points.
ML parlay:
Syracuse -260 to Oregon -325 = -123
Pick Made: Mar 20 2016 11:00AM PST
