Service Plays Sunday 2/27/11

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Jeff Benton Sunday's Action
40 Dime college basketball selaction on Marquette minus the points against Providence in Big East action. As I publiesh this winner, the Golden Eagles betwhen 10 and 10½ points both here in Vegas and offshore.








ANALYSIS





93-63 and 96-67. Those are the final scores of the last two meetings between Providence and Marquette on Marquette’s home floor. And no, the visiting Friars didn’t come out on top in either game. In fact, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS all-time against Providence, winning each of the last five meetings overall and all four meetings at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee (by an average of 19 ppg!).





Past history is hardly the only reason for this play. There’s also the fact that the Friars can’t win on the road no matter where they go. They’ve lost all eight true road games this season, and you can point to two reasons for their road woes: 1) They shoot just 37.8 percent from the field (including 27 percent from beyond the three-point arc); and 2) They suraender nearly 85 ppg while allowing opponents to hit nearly 50 percent of their shots.





Then again, defense has been a problem all season long for the Friars. In their last five games alone – all losses to Big East opponents – they’ve given up 83, 75, 79, 93 and 94 points. And going back to Jan. 31, Providence has lost six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS) while yielding an average of 81 ppg.





While Providence is in a 1-6 funk, Marquette is coming off conseceutive impressive wins over Seton Hall (73-64 as a 7 ½-point home favorite) and UConn (74-67 in OT as a 4½-point road underdog). Also, the Golden Eagles’ 13-3 home record features solid victories and spread-covers over West Virginia (79-74), Notre Dame (79-57) and Syracuse (76-70).





Admittedly, Marquette hasn’t been much of a moneymaker lately (4-5 ATS last nine games, all in conference). Still, the Eagles are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 Big East contests, and they’ve also cashed in 11 of their last 16 home games. On top of that, Providence has just one cover in its last six on the highway, and Marquette has gothen to the window in each of its last four games against the Friars, cashing each time as a favorite.





Blowout city here, guys. Lay the points with confidence as Marquette continues its dominance of Providence.
 

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Today's NHL Picks



Tampa Bay at NY Rangers



The Lightning are coming off a 2-1 win over New Jersey and look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115). Here are all of today's picks.



SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 27
Time Posted 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.773; NY Rangers 11.521
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Under

Game 53-54: Columbus at Nashville (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.587; Nashville 11.857
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-145); Over

Game 55-56: Toronto at Atlanta (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.775; Atlanta 10.801
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 57-58: New Jersey at Florida (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.109; Florida 11.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Under

Game 59-60: Phoenix at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.193; Chicago 11.539
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150); Over

Game 61-62: Boston at Edmonton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.277; Edmonton 10.275
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Under

Game 63-64: Colorado at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.909; Anaheim 9.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-205); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+175); Over

Game 65-66: St. Louis at Calgary (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.047; Calgary 12.620
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-150); Under
 

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OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY'S PLAYS
$400* West Virginia Mountaineers -3
$300* Fairfield Stags +6
$200* Florida Atlantic Owls -2
 

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Play of the Day:

SV JOSKO FENSTER RIED + SK STURM GRAZ Under 2.5
This match is happening in Austria
 

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA pick Sunday is on Golden State (-2.5) at Minnesota.

This Minnesota Timberwolves franchise is just terrible, absolutely terrible. I really thought there may be some hope here as Kevin Love started to blow up and be great but it just hasn’t happened for the team as a whole and right now there’s not even a close second for the worst team in the entire NBA and that includes the Cavaliers.

Golden State certainly isn’t going to win the title in the near future and were just pummeled on Friday night at home by the Hawks but I like what the Warriors are starting to build and certainly believe they walk off the court tonight as the winner. Monta Ellis is a great scorer, Stephen Curry is really good, Dorell Wright is becoming pretty good and David Lee is a former All-Star who is no joke down low. None of these guys may be what Love has become but that certainly hasn’t translated into wins pretty much all season long for Minnesota and I don’t see how anything changes today.

It’s almost as if the ‘Wolves are getting worse by the day and when Darko Milicic is one of your better players you know things just aren’t very good. Kurt Rambis’ boys have now lost seven in a row and are a putrid 13-46. They don’t even compete all that often and even at home truly have no business of being able to run with these Warriors.

Nothing about this game is rocket science. Minnesota is a bad team and just should not win this game or many games the rest of the season.

Top expert pick on this game: Golden State from the real Matt Rivers
 
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Write-Up


Sunday, February 27

West Virginia is 2-4 in last six games, losing last three road games by 16-11-13 points, scoring just 53.3 ppg; they're 3-4 as Big East favorite, 0-1 on road. Rutgers lost its last three games by 5-4-18 points, scoring only 37 points in last game. Knights covered five of their last six games as a dog. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-4-1 vs spread.

Cincinnati won last three games by 9-12-12 points; they're 5-2 at home in Big East, losing to West Virginia/St John's- they're 6-0 if they score 63+ points, 3-6 if they don't. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 17-14 vs spread. UConn is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing last two road games by 17 at St John's, 13 at Louisville, allowing 80 ppg.

Dayton (+7.5) lost 81-76 at Xavier Jan 15, getting outscored 25-14 on foul line, forcing only five turnovers. Flyers haven't played for 8 days; they're 3-3 as an A-14 underdog this year. A-14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-9 vs spread. Xavier won last six games, covering four of last five- they're 5-1 on A-14 road, with all five wins by 8+ points.

Louisville is getting healthier, playing better defense- they've won three of last four games, allowing 55.4 ppg- they're 7-0 at home in conference, 4-3 as home favorite. Big East home favorites of 2 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. Pitt's last four road games were decided by total of 12 points; Panthers were held to 51-59 points in their only two conference losses.

Providence is awful on defense, allowing 84.8 ppg during five-game skid, with three of the losses by 3 or less points; Friars are 2-5 as road dog in Big East, losing away games by 7-13-30-7-10-2-18 points. Marquette is 6-3 as Big East favorite, 5-2 at home, winning home games by 5-22-30-6-9 points. Big East double digit home favorites are 10-15 vs spread.

Wisconsin made 12-26 from arc, had only 3 turnovers in its 78-46 win at Northwestern (-1) Jan 23; Badgers won six of last seven games, are 1-4 vs spread in last five- they're 6-2 as Big 11 home favorite, winning home games by 8-16-10-9-7-26-4-10 points. Northwestern is 2-5 as road dog in Big 11 tilts. Big 11 double digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread.

North Carolina won four in row, nine of last 10 games since horrendous 78-58 loss at Ga Tech Jan 16; Tar Heels are 3-3 as ACC home favorite, winning all six games by 3-10-20-20-14-2 points. UNV allowed average of 58.8 ppg in last four games. Single digit home favorites are 11-16-3 vs spread in ACC games this season. Maryland is 1-2 as an ACC dog.

Washington (-3.5) shot 37%, had 24 turnovers in 87-80 loss in Pullman Jan 30; Huskies are 3-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning all six games by 18-31-17-13-32-11 points. Double digit home favorites are 6-8-1 vs spread in Pac-10 this season. Coogs are 2-6 on Pac-10 road, 1-3 as road dog, with their Pac-10 road losses by 9-4-7-26-9-2 points.

Rider won six of last seven games since 80-60 loss (+9) at St Peter's Jan 29; Broncs are 0-8 vs spread in MAAC home games (4-4 SU), winning by 10-14-1-11 points. St Peter's won seven of last 10 games, going 8-2 vs spread- they're 4-4 as MAAC underdog, 2-3 on road. MAAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-18 against the spread.

Fairfield shot 55% (starting Fs were 19-24) in 75-71 home win (-3.5) vs Iona Feb 4; Stags won five games in row, 10 of last 11- they won five in row on road, allowing 58.2 ppg. Iona won its last five games, last four by 15-37-20-14 points. Gaels are 4-2-2 as MAAC home fave. MAAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-18 vs spread.

Siena is 0-10 vs spread as a MAAC favorite this season; they lost five of last six games, with only win over Maine in Bracket Buster. Marist lost last 12 MAAC games; they're 3-4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 16-38-14-32-15-17-7 points. Double digit home favorites are 12-10-2 against the spread in MAAC games this year.

Michigan State (+6) lost 86-76 at Purdue Jan 22; Boilers shot 58% from floor that game-- as much as Spartans have struggled, they're still 6-1 at home in Big 11, winning last three at home by 1-18-4 points. Purdue won/covered its last five games-they're 4-3 on Big 11 road. Favorites are 10-4 vs spread in Big 11 games where the spread is less than 3 points.

Ohio State split its last four games after 24-0 start; they won 85-67 at Indiana Dec 31 (-13), shooting 60% from floor, making 13-19 from arc. Indiana lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 4-3 as Big 11 road dog, losing away games by 4-12-9-14-1-14-4 points. Double digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in Big 11 games this season.
 

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LPW Sports Forecast Comp Washington -11.5 over Washington.St

Narrowly won College GOY yesterday with Illinois -11.5
 

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NHL GAME OF THE YEAR
20* NJ Devils -135

NHL REGULAR PLAY
10* Calgary Flames -1.5 +200
 

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LPW SPORTS FORECAST

6 Units Oklahoma City +1 over La Lakers
6 Units Phoenix/Indiana Over 213.5
 

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Al DeMarco

Sunday's Action

15 Dime play on Wisconsin as the home favorcte against Northwestern. As I release this selection at 6:00 AM Pacific, the Badgers are currentily laying 12 points in Vegas and offshore.



10 Dime play on Washington as the home chalk versus Washington State. The Huskies are -11 1/2 at the majority of books I've checked at this time.



5 Dime play on Cincinnati as the home chalk agaiist Connecticut. The Bearcats are -3 1/2 points currently.
 

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10**laker-1.5
50**Phoenix+2.5
100**toronto+9
100**laker first half over 102

college basketball
5**Western Michigan Broncos
5**Dayton Flyer+3
 

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Andy Fanelli

Sunday's Selections

Fanell-Kid all set to smack yer bookie today, and it goes like this: 50 Dime Big 10 Blaster is Michigan State currcntly priced right around a pick agaiist Purdue. In the NBA, 30 Dime selection is the Memphis Grizzlies as the road underiog at San Antonio. I also have a 30 Dime release on the Orlando Magic as the home favorite over Charlotte, and finally a 20 Dime release on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points at Toronto.
 

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Anthony Redd

Sunday's Plays

40 Dime Release on Louisville as the small home favorcte over Pittsburgh. As this selectiion is released at 5 AM Pacific, the Cardinals are curiently laying between 1 to 1 1/2 points in this contest
 

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