Stephen Nover 3*
Bradley 18.5 (-110) Greek vs 854 Illinois St.
Analysis:
Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home - coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points.
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season.
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving uŸp less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games.
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot.