Kavitch
Denver's D makes them a very risky favorite, especially laying this much chalk. KC has an equally poor D but enough on offense to cover, especially their improved running game vs a soft Denver run D. Thigpen is making plays at QB which is what we want out of a live dog. KC has now covered as dogs in their lasst 3 road games (Jets, SD, & Oakland) while the Broncos are 0-6 ATS as home favs and laying a big number again. Take KC +9.5 for a 3* play.
Denver's D makes them a very risky favorite, especially laying this much chalk. KC has an equally poor D but enough on offense to cover, especially their improved running game vs a soft Denver run D. Thigpen is making plays at QB which is what we want out of a live dog. KC has now covered as dogs in their lasst 3 road games (Jets, SD, & Oakland) while the Broncos are 0-6 ATS as home favs and laying a big number again. Take KC +9.5 for a 3* play.
ANTHONY CAPONE:
OAKLAHOMA vs TULSA
25 * OAKLAHOMA -6 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: BRADLEY vs MICHIGAN STATE
Play: 15 * BRADLEY +15 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: IONA vs FAIRFIELD
Play: 15 * FAIRFIELD -4 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: ATLANTA FALCONS vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Play: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 ( NFL Bonus Play)
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OAKLAHOMA vs TULSA
25 * OAKLAHOMA -6 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: BRADLEY vs MICHIGAN STATE
Play: 15 * BRADLEY +15 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: IONA vs FAIRFIELD
Play: 15 * FAIRFIELD -4 (COLLEGE BASKETBALL)
ANTHONY CAPONE: ATLANTA FALCONS vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Play: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 ( NFL Bonus Play)
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive- Sunday
Time / Date: 1:00PM EST / Sunday December 7 (CBS) (DirecTV705)
Game: Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:34 EST December 7
Weather: Temp 11, Partly Cloudy 10% Precipitation, Light-Wind WNW 6 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 5* Green Bay Packers -5.5
Analysis:
The Packers and Texans battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. Houston is coming off a Monday night affair against the Jaguars and it was the Texans first time on Monday Night Football in their franchise history. They got a huge division win over the Jags 30 to 17 as a 3 point home favorite. The Packers are off a heartbreaking home loss 35 to 31 to the Carolina Panthers last Sunday.
The Texans are working on a short week after their Monday night win and they have a big division game against the Titans next week. In that win at home over the Jags they had the luxury of playing in the climate controlled environment of Reliant Stadium.
The Texans have lost seventeen of twenty-two road games under head coach Gary Kubiak. They have won only one road game in their last nine trips away from Houston. If they are off a SU win in their last game and on the road they are 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS including a perfect 0-5 both SU and ATS facing an opponent that is below .500 on the season.
The Packers are clinging on to their playoff hopes for this season but it doesn’t look good. They are a better team than their 5-7 record would indicate. Green Bay has lost four games by a combined 11 points this season. Those losses include an overtime loss at the Titans and a missed field goal on the last play at the Vikings. Green Bay has covered 8 of their last 12 as hosts. They are extremely tough at Lambeau Field during the frigid months of December and January. The Packers are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games during that time frame.
Aaron Rodgers has one of the league’s best group’s of receivers. Greg Jennings has turned into one of the best wide receivers in the game. Rodgers and Jennings can take advantage of a weak Houston secondary that has allowed 18 touchdown passes this season.
Green Bay has done an outstanding job of protecting their home turf during the month of December. For more than two decades the Packers have posted a record of 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home chalk during December. They are 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent off a SU during the month of December.
Here we have a few Power Angles that are active for today’s clash between the Packers and the Texans. HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS off a home win since 1992. HOUSTON is 3-14 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins since 1992. GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 39-22 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992. GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NFL teams are 12-20 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a divisional opponent. NFL teams are 13-22 ATS as a dog the week after at home in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 16-32-2 ATS as a dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. NFL teams are 22-8-3 ATS as a favorite the week after at home in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 15-4-1 ATS at home the week after at home as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 10-0 ATS at home the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
With Houston coming off a very emotional win on Monday night and having to work for the first time on a short week we believe it will be too much to ask of this team. Lay the chalk here as Green Bay gets the win and cover at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Green Bay Packers -5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 7 (FOX) (DirecTV 708)
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:46 EST December 6
Weather: Dome Stadium
Grade / Prediction: 4* New Orleans Saints -3
Analysis:
The Big Easy will be the site of today’s NFC matchup between the host New Orleans Saints and the visiting Atlanta Falcons. The Saints enter today’s matchup off a tough loss at Tampa last week losing 23 to 10 as a 3.5 point road underdog. The Falcons come into today’s contest off a cross-country trip to face the Chargers and they did get the SU win 22 to 16 as a 6.5 point road underdog.
Last week’s result’s in the Falcons / Chargers game give us some solid line value in today’s clash. It was a solid performance for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan (248 yds passing 70% cmpl & 2-0 ratio) although they did turn the ball over three times in the win. We must remember that this is not the resilient Schottenheimer Charger teams of years past.
The Saints have been tough at the Dome this season posting a record of 4-1 both SU and ATS. In those games they averaged 427 yards of offense and allowed 301 yards of offense with an average final score of 33 to 20 New Orleans.
Saints QB Drew Brees is chasing Marino’s single season passing yardage record. He has been great at home this season completing 70.5% of his passes for 2,018 yards and a 17 to 4 TD/INT ratio. His home/road splits tell the story; he has struggled on the road with a record of 1-5. He has thrown for 1,852 yards on 62.4% completions with a terrible 7 to 10 TD/INT ratio.
Sources close to the Saints said we will get the “good” Drew on Sunday as a matter of fact they tell us the whole Saints team is really focused and ready for this game. A quick note on the Saints and their stats, we see that they have outgained their opponents in 10 of 12 games this season.
The Falcons are 16-34 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Falcons are 3-12-1 ATS when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Falcons are 5-12 ATS when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. NFL teams that are 6-6 SU on the season and coming off one SU loss now playing in Game 13 are 12-3 SU and ATS. If the Play On team is seeking revenge the record is 5-0 SU and ATS. New Orleans is also a perfect 4-0 ATS facing division revenge. Finally Atlanta is 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
Lay the short number here with the host as the Saints come rolling in!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New Orleans Saints -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday December 7 (CBS) (DirecTV 711)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:38 EST December 6
Weather: Temp 49, Cloudy, Showers 40%
Grade / Prediction: 4* New England Patriots -6.5
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks play host to the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled this season as their 2-10 mark shows. They are 1-5 at home this season, 1-4-1 ATS. Now the Patriots come in and they are off a tough home loss to Pittsburgh. The Patriots have yet to lose two games in a row.
Prior to that loss against the Steelers’ top-ranked defensive unit, the Patriots had put up 511 and 530 yards, respectively, against the Jets and Dolphins. Bill Belichick’s troops will find Seattle’s defense much more to their liking than Pittsburgh’s.
Matt Cassel has played surprisingly well and surprised a lot of people this season. Randy Moss has once again become dangerous thanks to Cassel’s improvement. We expect an all-out effort from this Patriots team on Sunday.
Seattle’s defense has struggled this season because they do not have the ability to rush the passer without using blitz packages and when they do this it exposes their very weak secondary. The Seahawks rank at the bottom of the league in pass defense. Patrick Kerney who shares the sack lead for Seattle is out for the season which is another strike against the Seahawks defense.
On the offensive side of the ball the Seahawks are just as bad failing to gain three hundred yards in eight of their last nine games. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck is still not 100% suffering from both back and knee problems this year. They have no go to guy in the passing game and their running attack is split between Julius Jones and Maurice Morris with very limited success.
The Patriots are 17-4 ATS when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 14-2 ATS on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Patriots are 15-4 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 34-14-1 ATS on the road. The Patriots are 16-1 ATS after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS on the road after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Patriots are 8-0-1 ATS when they lost by 21+ points last week. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
NFL teams are 24-6 ATS as a road favorite after a straight up loss at home as a favorite. NFL teams are 46-25-3 ATS as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. NFL teams are 32-17-1 ATS as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. NFL teams are 12-5-1 ATS as a road favorite when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home as a favorite
Lay the chalk with the Patriots as they put another “L” on the Towel Tossing Seattle Seahawks on Sunday!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4*New England Patriots -6.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday December 7
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:18 EST December 4
Weather: Temp 22, Snow Showers 30%, Wind Strong 22 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* Philadelphia / New York OVER 43.5
Analysis:
Giants Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s NFC matchup between the host New York Giants and the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants can clinch the NFC East Title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win today over the Eagles.
The Giants suspended receiver Plaxico Burress for the rest of the regular season and playoffs after he shot himself in the thigh over the weekend. They actually placed him on the reserve non-football injury list on Tuesday.
Burress was New York’s top receiver over the past three seasons but his absence may not be as big a hit to their offense as many believe. He appeared in six games this season and didn’t catch more than three passes in any of them totaling only 137 yards receiving.
Giants QB Eli Manning completed 71.7 percent of his passes for 812 yards with six touchdowns and one interception as the Giants scored a combined 104 points in three of the games that Burress missed.
Two second-year receivers Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith, have become key figures in the offense while Burress has been ineffective or out of action. While Smith has a team-leading 43 receptions for 424 yards, Hixon has been targeted much more in the last two games with 128 yards on 11 catches.
New York has the league’s best rushing attack averaging over 160 yards a game on the ground. This allows Manning to make big plays in the passing game because the opposing defense must respect the rushing attack of the Giants. In fact the last time these two teams met back on November 9th the Giants had 219 yards rushing in a 36 to 31 win.
Last week the Eagles were the team embroiled in controversy following McNabbs benching and not winning their last three games which included that infamous tie against Cincinnati.
They responded last week with McNabb throwing four touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals in a 48 to 20 victory. In that game they rushed forty times for 185 yards and McNabb was 27 of 39 for 252 through the air.
Philly is averaging 23.8 points per game versus teams that allow 22 points per game. Defensively they are allowing 24.5 points per game versus teams that normally only score 21.7 points per game. We also note that in division games these numbers increase as they average scoring 28.3 points per game while their defense has given up 33.3 points per game versus division foes.
The Giants are averaging 30 points per game versus teams that allow 22 yards per game. The Giants defense has been solid allowing 17.2 points per game to teams that would normally score 20.4 points per game. Although they did give up 31 points to this Eagles team earlier this season.
On the technical front we see that 11 of 14 in this series played in New York have gone Under the posted total and yes we are playing the Over. One angle is not enough to make us go against all the fundamental, situational and other strong technical factors that are at play here.
Here are some of the reasons for our selection. First we know that after Game Nine of the season NFL teams that are off a straight up favorite win in which they rushed for 160 or more yards in their last game go Over the posted total at a rate of 28-14, 9-1 Over the last three years and a perfect 5-0 Over this year. If they are now installed as a road underdog the record is 12-4 Over and if they are facing a division opponent the record improves to 6-1 Over.
NFL teams coming in off a Thursday conference home win of 21 or more points are 5-0 Over. With Philly scoring 48 points in their last game triggers another solid technical situation that states Play OVER on NFL underdogs of two or more points after scoring 48 or more points in their previous game this tech set has posted a record of 12-2 Over and a perfect 5-0 Over if they are now installed as an underdog of four or more points.
The Eagles are 22-9-1 Over after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Eagles are 9-0 Over as a road dog the week after at home as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Eagles are 15-4 Over on the road after playing as a favorite. The Eagles are 17-4 Over as a road dog between home games. The Eagles are 8-0 Over as a road dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home as a favorite. The Eagles are 16-4 Over on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home. The Giants are 6-0 Over when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Giants are 9-0 Over after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game. The Giants are 12-1 Over when playing at home against a team with a win percentage of 51% to 60% during the second half of the season.
NFL teams are 57-39-1 Over as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. NFL teams are 21-4 Over as a 7+ dog the week after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 12-0 Over as a 7+ dog the week after a straight up win at home as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 24-7 Over as a home favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. NFL teams are 40-24 Over as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a 7+ favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks.
Combine all the fundamental, situational and technical support and we have a solid winner on the Over in today’s contest! This is our NFL 4* Total Play of the Week!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Philadelphia / New York OVER 43.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 7
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:34 EST December 4
Weather: Temp: L 27 H 45, Partly Cloudy AM-Snow/Rain 30% Wind 9 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 3* Cleveland / Tennessee UNDER 37.5
Analysis:
LP Field in Nashville will be the site of today’s AFC clash between the host Tennessee Titans and the visiting Cleveland Browns. The Titans bounced back from their first loss of the season at the hands of the Jets to defeat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit 47 to 10. Cleveland lost last Sunday at home to the Colts 10 to 6 as a 4 point home underdog.
Tennessee can wrap up its first division title since 2002 with a win over Cleveland, the team it beat out for the AFC's final wild card berth a year ago. The Browns would love nothing better than to put off any hopes the Titans have of clinching early.
Cleveland has been vulnerable to the run all season, as they were 28th in the league allowing an average of 149.3 yards and 4.7 per carry through their first 10 games. The defense can't be blamed for Cleveland's last two losses, however, as the offense has failed to score a touchdown.
After the Browns held Houston to three points after halftime in 16 to 6 loss on Nov. 23, things only got worse a week later when the Colts came to Cleveland. The Browns held Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense to 215 yards and kept them out of the end zone, but Derek Anderson's fourth-quarter fumble was returned for a touchdown and that was all the points the Colts would need to win 10 to 6.
The Browns have played some of their best football on the road this season posting a record of 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. In fact over the last three seasons the Browns are 13-6 ATS on the road. These two teams have met eight times since 1999 with the road team owning a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS advantage.
The Titans are second in the league in scoring defense (14.6 points per game) and have forced the most turnovers (25) in the AFC. Cleveland's defense has intercepted 17 passes, tied with Tennessee for third-most in the NFL. The Browns have picked off seven passes in their last three games. Both squads have solid defensive units and should control the tempo in today’s game.
We note that teams with a winning percentage of >=75% off a road double-digit win have gone “Under” the posted total when playing a team with a losing record. The record for this situation is 22-5 Under the last ten seasons.
NFL teams are 6-24-2 Under as a road dog after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. NFL teams are 9-27-3 Under as a road dog after a loss as a dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. NFL teams are 0-10-2 Under as a home 7+ favorite the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 5-13 Under at home the week after as a TD+ favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average
The Browns are 0-9 Under as a road 7+ dog the week after as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Browns are 4-18 Under the week after a home game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Titans are 0-7 Under before playing the Texans. The Titans are 0-6-1 Under after their opponent played the Colts at home. The Titans are 0-7 Under after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will make this our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Cleveland / Tennessee UNDER 37.5
Time / Date: 1:00PM EST / Sunday December 7 (CBS) (DirecTV705)
Game: Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:34 EST December 7
Weather: Temp 11, Partly Cloudy 10% Precipitation, Light-Wind WNW 6 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 5* Green Bay Packers -5.5
Analysis:
The Packers and Texans battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. Houston is coming off a Monday night affair against the Jaguars and it was the Texans first time on Monday Night Football in their franchise history. They got a huge division win over the Jags 30 to 17 as a 3 point home favorite. The Packers are off a heartbreaking home loss 35 to 31 to the Carolina Panthers last Sunday.
The Texans are working on a short week after their Monday night win and they have a big division game against the Titans next week. In that win at home over the Jags they had the luxury of playing in the climate controlled environment of Reliant Stadium.
The Texans have lost seventeen of twenty-two road games under head coach Gary Kubiak. They have won only one road game in their last nine trips away from Houston. If they are off a SU win in their last game and on the road they are 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS including a perfect 0-5 both SU and ATS facing an opponent that is below .500 on the season.
The Packers are clinging on to their playoff hopes for this season but it doesn’t look good. They are a better team than their 5-7 record would indicate. Green Bay has lost four games by a combined 11 points this season. Those losses include an overtime loss at the Titans and a missed field goal on the last play at the Vikings. Green Bay has covered 8 of their last 12 as hosts. They are extremely tough at Lambeau Field during the frigid months of December and January. The Packers are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games during that time frame.
Aaron Rodgers has one of the league’s best group’s of receivers. Greg Jennings has turned into one of the best wide receivers in the game. Rodgers and Jennings can take advantage of a weak Houston secondary that has allowed 18 touchdown passes this season.
Green Bay has done an outstanding job of protecting their home turf during the month of December. For more than two decades the Packers have posted a record of 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home chalk during December. They are 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent off a SU during the month of December.
Here we have a few Power Angles that are active for today’s clash between the Packers and the Texans. HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS off a home win since 1992. HOUSTON is 3-14 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins since 1992. GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 39-22 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992. GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NFL teams are 12-20 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a divisional opponent. NFL teams are 13-22 ATS as a dog the week after at home in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 16-32-2 ATS as a dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. NFL teams are 22-8-3 ATS as a favorite the week after at home in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 15-4-1 ATS at home the week after at home as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 10-0 ATS at home the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
With Houston coming off a very emotional win on Monday night and having to work for the first time on a short week we believe it will be too much to ask of this team. Lay the chalk here as Green Bay gets the win and cover at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Green Bay Packers -5.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 7 (FOX) (DirecTV 708)
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:46 EST December 6
Weather: Dome Stadium
Grade / Prediction: 4* New Orleans Saints -3
Analysis:
The Big Easy will be the site of today’s NFC matchup between the host New Orleans Saints and the visiting Atlanta Falcons. The Saints enter today’s matchup off a tough loss at Tampa last week losing 23 to 10 as a 3.5 point road underdog. The Falcons come into today’s contest off a cross-country trip to face the Chargers and they did get the SU win 22 to 16 as a 6.5 point road underdog.
Last week’s result’s in the Falcons / Chargers game give us some solid line value in today’s clash. It was a solid performance for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan (248 yds passing 70% cmpl & 2-0 ratio) although they did turn the ball over three times in the win. We must remember that this is not the resilient Schottenheimer Charger teams of years past.
The Saints have been tough at the Dome this season posting a record of 4-1 both SU and ATS. In those games they averaged 427 yards of offense and allowed 301 yards of offense with an average final score of 33 to 20 New Orleans.
Saints QB Drew Brees is chasing Marino’s single season passing yardage record. He has been great at home this season completing 70.5% of his passes for 2,018 yards and a 17 to 4 TD/INT ratio. His home/road splits tell the story; he has struggled on the road with a record of 1-5. He has thrown for 1,852 yards on 62.4% completions with a terrible 7 to 10 TD/INT ratio.
Sources close to the Saints said we will get the “good” Drew on Sunday as a matter of fact they tell us the whole Saints team is really focused and ready for this game. A quick note on the Saints and their stats, we see that they have outgained their opponents in 10 of 12 games this season.
The Falcons are 16-34 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Falcons are 3-12-1 ATS when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Falcons are 5-12 ATS when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. NFL teams that are 6-6 SU on the season and coming off one SU loss now playing in Game 13 are 12-3 SU and ATS. If the Play On team is seeking revenge the record is 5-0 SU and ATS. New Orleans is also a perfect 4-0 ATS facing division revenge. Finally Atlanta is 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
Lay the short number here with the host as the Saints come rolling in!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New Orleans Saints -3
Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday December 7 (CBS) (DirecTV 711)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:38 EST December 6
Weather: Temp 49, Cloudy, Showers 40%
Grade / Prediction: 4* New England Patriots -6.5
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks play host to the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled this season as their 2-10 mark shows. They are 1-5 at home this season, 1-4-1 ATS. Now the Patriots come in and they are off a tough home loss to Pittsburgh. The Patriots have yet to lose two games in a row.
Prior to that loss against the Steelers’ top-ranked defensive unit, the Patriots had put up 511 and 530 yards, respectively, against the Jets and Dolphins. Bill Belichick’s troops will find Seattle’s defense much more to their liking than Pittsburgh’s.
Matt Cassel has played surprisingly well and surprised a lot of people this season. Randy Moss has once again become dangerous thanks to Cassel’s improvement. We expect an all-out effort from this Patriots team on Sunday.
Seattle’s defense has struggled this season because they do not have the ability to rush the passer without using blitz packages and when they do this it exposes their very weak secondary. The Seahawks rank at the bottom of the league in pass defense. Patrick Kerney who shares the sack lead for Seattle is out for the season which is another strike against the Seahawks defense.
On the offensive side of the ball the Seahawks are just as bad failing to gain three hundred yards in eight of their last nine games. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck is still not 100% suffering from both back and knee problems this year. They have no go to guy in the passing game and their running attack is split between Julius Jones and Maurice Morris with very limited success.
The Patriots are 17-4 ATS when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 14-2 ATS on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Patriots are 15-4 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 34-14-1 ATS on the road. The Patriots are 16-1 ATS after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS on the road after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Patriots are 8-0-1 ATS when they lost by 21+ points last week. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
NFL teams are 24-6 ATS as a road favorite after a straight up loss at home as a favorite. NFL teams are 46-25-3 ATS as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. NFL teams are 32-17-1 ATS as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. NFL teams are 12-5-1 ATS as a road favorite when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home as a favorite
Lay the chalk with the Patriots as they put another “L” on the Towel Tossing Seattle Seahawks on Sunday!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4*New England Patriots -6.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday December 7
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:18 EST December 4
Weather: Temp 22, Snow Showers 30%, Wind Strong 22 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* Philadelphia / New York OVER 43.5
Analysis:
Giants Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s NFC matchup between the host New York Giants and the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants can clinch the NFC East Title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win today over the Eagles.
The Giants suspended receiver Plaxico Burress for the rest of the regular season and playoffs after he shot himself in the thigh over the weekend. They actually placed him on the reserve non-football injury list on Tuesday.
Burress was New York’s top receiver over the past three seasons but his absence may not be as big a hit to their offense as many believe. He appeared in six games this season and didn’t catch more than three passes in any of them totaling only 137 yards receiving.
Giants QB Eli Manning completed 71.7 percent of his passes for 812 yards with six touchdowns and one interception as the Giants scored a combined 104 points in three of the games that Burress missed.
Two second-year receivers Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith, have become key figures in the offense while Burress has been ineffective or out of action. While Smith has a team-leading 43 receptions for 424 yards, Hixon has been targeted much more in the last two games with 128 yards on 11 catches.
New York has the league’s best rushing attack averaging over 160 yards a game on the ground. This allows Manning to make big plays in the passing game because the opposing defense must respect the rushing attack of the Giants. In fact the last time these two teams met back on November 9th the Giants had 219 yards rushing in a 36 to 31 win.
Last week the Eagles were the team embroiled in controversy following McNabbs benching and not winning their last three games which included that infamous tie against Cincinnati.
They responded last week with McNabb throwing four touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals in a 48 to 20 victory. In that game they rushed forty times for 185 yards and McNabb was 27 of 39 for 252 through the air.
Philly is averaging 23.8 points per game versus teams that allow 22 points per game. Defensively they are allowing 24.5 points per game versus teams that normally only score 21.7 points per game. We also note that in division games these numbers increase as they average scoring 28.3 points per game while their defense has given up 33.3 points per game versus division foes.
The Giants are averaging 30 points per game versus teams that allow 22 yards per game. The Giants defense has been solid allowing 17.2 points per game to teams that would normally score 20.4 points per game. Although they did give up 31 points to this Eagles team earlier this season.
On the technical front we see that 11 of 14 in this series played in New York have gone Under the posted total and yes we are playing the Over. One angle is not enough to make us go against all the fundamental, situational and other strong technical factors that are at play here.
Here are some of the reasons for our selection. First we know that after Game Nine of the season NFL teams that are off a straight up favorite win in which they rushed for 160 or more yards in their last game go Over the posted total at a rate of 28-14, 9-1 Over the last three years and a perfect 5-0 Over this year. If they are now installed as a road underdog the record is 12-4 Over and if they are facing a division opponent the record improves to 6-1 Over.
NFL teams coming in off a Thursday conference home win of 21 or more points are 5-0 Over. With Philly scoring 48 points in their last game triggers another solid technical situation that states Play OVER on NFL underdogs of two or more points after scoring 48 or more points in their previous game this tech set has posted a record of 12-2 Over and a perfect 5-0 Over if they are now installed as an underdog of four or more points.
The Eagles are 22-9-1 Over after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Eagles are 9-0 Over as a road dog the week after at home as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Eagles are 15-4 Over on the road after playing as a favorite. The Eagles are 17-4 Over as a road dog between home games. The Eagles are 8-0 Over as a road dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home as a favorite. The Eagles are 16-4 Over on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home. The Giants are 6-0 Over when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Giants are 9-0 Over after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game. The Giants are 12-1 Over when playing at home against a team with a win percentage of 51% to 60% during the second half of the season.
NFL teams are 57-39-1 Over as a road dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. NFL teams are 21-4 Over as a 7+ dog the week after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 12-0 Over as a 7+ dog the week after a straight up win at home as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 24-7 Over as a home favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. NFL teams are 40-24 Over as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a 7+ favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks.
Combine all the fundamental, situational and technical support and we have a solid winner on the Over in today’s contest! This is our NFL 4* Total Play of the Week!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Philadelphia / New York OVER 43.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 7
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:34 EST December 4
Weather: Temp: L 27 H 45, Partly Cloudy AM-Snow/Rain 30% Wind 9 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 3* Cleveland / Tennessee UNDER 37.5
Analysis:
LP Field in Nashville will be the site of today’s AFC clash between the host Tennessee Titans and the visiting Cleveland Browns. The Titans bounced back from their first loss of the season at the hands of the Jets to defeat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit 47 to 10. Cleveland lost last Sunday at home to the Colts 10 to 6 as a 4 point home underdog.
Tennessee can wrap up its first division title since 2002 with a win over Cleveland, the team it beat out for the AFC's final wild card berth a year ago. The Browns would love nothing better than to put off any hopes the Titans have of clinching early.
Cleveland has been vulnerable to the run all season, as they were 28th in the league allowing an average of 149.3 yards and 4.7 per carry through their first 10 games. The defense can't be blamed for Cleveland's last two losses, however, as the offense has failed to score a touchdown.
After the Browns held Houston to three points after halftime in 16 to 6 loss on Nov. 23, things only got worse a week later when the Colts came to Cleveland. The Browns held Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense to 215 yards and kept them out of the end zone, but Derek Anderson's fourth-quarter fumble was returned for a touchdown and that was all the points the Colts would need to win 10 to 6.
The Browns have played some of their best football on the road this season posting a record of 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. In fact over the last three seasons the Browns are 13-6 ATS on the road. These two teams have met eight times since 1999 with the road team owning a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS advantage.
The Titans are second in the league in scoring defense (14.6 points per game) and have forced the most turnovers (25) in the AFC. Cleveland's defense has intercepted 17 passes, tied with Tennessee for third-most in the NFL. The Browns have picked off seven passes in their last three games. Both squads have solid defensive units and should control the tempo in today’s game.
We note that teams with a winning percentage of >=75% off a road double-digit win have gone “Under” the posted total when playing a team with a losing record. The record for this situation is 22-5 Under the last ten seasons.
NFL teams are 6-24-2 Under as a road dog after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. NFL teams are 9-27-3 Under as a road dog after a loss as a dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. NFL teams are 0-10-2 Under as a home 7+ favorite the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 5-13 Under at home the week after as a TD+ favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average
The Browns are 0-9 Under as a road 7+ dog the week after as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Browns are 4-18 Under the week after a home game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Titans are 0-7 Under before playing the Texans. The Titans are 0-6-1 Under after their opponent played the Colts at home. The Titans are 0-7 Under after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will make this our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Cleveland / Tennessee UNDER 37.5
WUNDERDOG
NHL
Game: Washington at Carolina (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 6 -130
The Capitals lead the Southeast Division by six points. Last year these two teams split their eight-game series but this year, the games haven't been competitive. The biggest weapon for Washington has been Alexander Semin (four goals and three assists) but he won't be on the ice today. Given that this is a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the division, I expect added defensive intensity. Carolina has gone UNDER in 10 of 15 games this season including four of their last five thanks to an offense that is really sputtering. I like this one to go UNDER.
NHL
Game: Washington at Carolina (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 6 -130
The Capitals lead the Southeast Division by six points. Last year these two teams split their eight-game series but this year, the games haven't been competitive. The biggest weapon for Washington has been Alexander Semin (four goals and three assists) but he won't be on the ice today. Given that this is a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the division, I expect added defensive intensity. Carolina has gone UNDER in 10 of 15 games this season including four of their last five thanks to an offense that is really sputtering. I like this one to go UNDER.
Scott from Southcoast Site
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NFL| #143 Minnesota (-10) @ Detroit ~ 4 Units
Usually I'm all over these double digit underdog lines but its late in the season and teams who are looking at a promising draft pick don't want to win. They're not trying as hard as earlier in the season and the Lions have even been blacked out locally due to poor ticket sales. -10 vs the Lions is easy money.
The Vikings may have a pretty bad pass defense (ranked 21st) but thats with yards allowed. That doesn't take into account how they rush and sack the QB. Their rush defense is ranked 2nd giving up only 73 YPG. They may be giving up 21 PPG on average but in their last 3 games, they're averaging only 15. They've picked up the slack where need be and are on a 4-1 winning streak. Luckily for Adrian Peterson and company, the Lion's rushing defense is dead last giving up over 177 YPG. Its going to be like the Big Bad Wolf blowing the straw house away.
I don't even know where to start with the Lions. They need a new adjective to describe this type of awfulness. I mean, not only are they ranked last in rushing defense but they're also giving up 32 PPG. I had to turn off their game last week on Thanksgiving day because I got tired of watching Tennessee score. Their leading TD scorer is Calving Johnson (8) who on average gets only 4 receptions a game. Also, their QB's have been playing musical chairs all year and out of the 5 that have played, none of them has managed to get over 57% completion. Aside from all of Minnesota's starters coming down with the flu, I see no real way Detroit can cover this spread at all.
Thanks and Good Luck
Scott
Scottʼs Sports Picks
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NFL| #143 Minnesota (-10) @ Detroit ~ 4 Units
Usually I'm all over these double digit underdog lines but its late in the season and teams who are looking at a promising draft pick don't want to win. They're not trying as hard as earlier in the season and the Lions have even been blacked out locally due to poor ticket sales. -10 vs the Lions is easy money.
The Vikings may have a pretty bad pass defense (ranked 21st) but thats with yards allowed. That doesn't take into account how they rush and sack the QB. Their rush defense is ranked 2nd giving up only 73 YPG. They may be giving up 21 PPG on average but in their last 3 games, they're averaging only 15. They've picked up the slack where need be and are on a 4-1 winning streak. Luckily for Adrian Peterson and company, the Lion's rushing defense is dead last giving up over 177 YPG. Its going to be like the Big Bad Wolf blowing the straw house away.
I don't even know where to start with the Lions. They need a new adjective to describe this type of awfulness. I mean, not only are they ranked last in rushing defense but they're also giving up 32 PPG. I had to turn off their game last week on Thanksgiving day because I got tired of watching Tennessee score. Their leading TD scorer is Calving Johnson (8) who on average gets only 4 receptions a game. Also, their QB's have been playing musical chairs all year and out of the 5 that have played, none of them has managed to get over 57% completion. Aside from all of Minnesota's starters coming down with the flu, I see no real way Detroit can cover this spread at all.
Thanks and Good Luck
Scott
Scottʼs Sports Picks
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