AlphaCapper
NFL 12/26/10
Houston at Denver (Houston -2½, 49½)
THE PICK > Houston Texans -2 (buy ½ point)
THE ANALYSIS > Look, Houston just has too much for Denver to handle here; there is no doubt in my mind about this. I don’t care if Tebow starts, finishes, comes in off the bench in the middle....he’s just not ready for a whole games top performance. Houston just has weapons galore in Schaub, Johnson, Foster, etc. IMO, you’re getting about a point and a half worth of value here because the love for Tebow. My line has the Texans -4.
The Broncos have struggled somewhat in total offense ranking 14th overall, 20th in points scored and 29th in rushing yards per week whereas the Titans rank 9th in the league against the run only allowing slightly over 100 yards per game. Now that Tebow has got his initial, ooooh-aaaah starting debut out of the way, which mind you was sort of impressive; don’t look for it to carry over. He will have a decent supporting cast in Moreno, who is questionable with a rib injury, and Brandon Lloyd.
Houston ranks 5th in both passing and total yards and ranks 11th in points scored per game. They average over 120 yards per game on the ground which is good for 5th overall. This will be bad news for a Broncos team that ranks either last or right next to last in most defensive categories. Schaub has 13 TD passes versus only 4 int’s this year and only needs 193 passing yards to reach 4,000 on the year. Their talented running back Arian Foster leads the league in rushing touchdowns with 13 on the season. He only needs 105 more to reach 2,000 for the year! Andrea Johnson has 3 Tds in the past 2 games and is on fire. Look for D.J. Williams to have a big day from the Texans linebacker position on defense. Jason Allen looks to have a big game as well....he has 2 int’s in his past 3 games.