INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. #311. Take the Arizona Cardinals -12 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 1pm est). I'm not the one to lay the wood on such a public favorite, but in this case, I'm willing to do it as per the Cardinals who come off a loss on MNF. This team feels likely slighted losing a division game and now this game sets up nicely for them. The Lions will be without Stafford once again and although they come off getting crushed last week, they likely could get crushed this week against a Cardinals team that wants to bounce-back. Fitzgerald is listed probable for this game and the loss the Cardinals recently suffered was actually one of the worst of the year losing 9-24. This team is 7-3 ATS over their last ten games. After losing 21-34 to the Panthers at home, this team went on the road to defeat the Bears 41-21. When this team lost to the Titans at home 17-20, this team then went on the road to defeat the Vikings 30-17 as an outright 3.5 dog.
4 Unit Play. #318. Take the Baltimore Ravens -11 over the Chicago Bears (Sunday @ 1pm est). We were on the Ravens last week when they crushed the Lions at home. This team wanted to get some frustration out and they certainly did that. The Ravens realized that the beginning of their schedule was brutal considering they had to play the likes of Indianapolis, Cincinatti, Minnesota etc...Hence, this team finds itself at a vulnerable 7-6 record and they desperately need this win. Heck, just last week this team was 6-6 and the win over the Lions gave them the opportunity to move up to 7-6. Now, this team really needs this win here to move to 8-6 and have a shot at the playoffs in a crowded AFC picture. The Bears are struggling and they are all but out of the playoff picture as they have lost their last six ATS covers as well. If the Bears can lose 10-36 to Minnesota and 10-45 to Cincinatti, certainly, this team can lose by a similar margin to the Ravens who have beat the Lions 48-3 and the Broncos at home 30-7. The Bears are 0-7-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-10 ATS as an underdog of late and the Ravens are 10-1 ATS when they face a team with a losing record as they typically look to dominate such teams.
5 Unit Play. #326. Take the Denver Broncos -14 over the Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 4:05pm est). The Denver Broncos are a solid team coming off a loss. Their coaching staff has done a great job utilizing the talent that this team has to produce the results that they have. After all, after the hot 6-0 start, it seemed this team was being exposed and cooling off. But, quickly as they started to decline, they shot back up with wins over the Giants and crushing Kansas City on the road. I like the fact this team lost to the Colts on the road as they return back home as this is a very similar situation to when they lost to San Diego and then were waiting at home for the Giants. I suspect that the Broncos, who have already defeated the Raiders earlier this year 3-23, are just waiting on this team. This team is 8-5 and a win here can go a long way in solidifying their playoff picture as they can move to 9-5. With Charlie Frye starting, he likely will need a few reps to get in the groove and I can see the Broncos running up the points a bit here to get some frustration out. I see this game likely as a 30-10 type of ballgame.
4 Unit Play. #205. New Orleans Bowl. Take Under 57.5 between Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi (Sunday @ 8:30pm est). Both of these teams are more of defensive minded squads than people give them credit for. For example, Middle Tennessee State is only allowing 23 points per game this year and Southern Miss is only allowing 24.5 points per game. Furthermore, when two teams that are relatively unfamiliar play each other, defense takes precedence. And, dating back to history, these two teams have no history of meeting each other. So, I expect the first part of the game to be more of a time when these two teams feel each out a bit. Middle Tennessee State is ranked in the top 50 in the country in points allowed and Southern Miss is 55th in the country in points allowed. I suspect this team is going to be more defensive than people expect as it is likely a 24-21 type of game and consequently this game goes under the posted total. The Under is 4-0 for the Golden Eagles following a straight up loss (losing to ECU in the Conference Championship) and the Under is 7-2 when the Blue Raiders are an Underdog by this margin.
Good luck,
IC