Top NFL Public Bets <<Sunday Update>>
#1 125 New England Patriots 79%
#2 131 Seattle Seahawks 75%
#3 115 Detroit Lions 74%
#4 130 Green Bay Packers 74%
#5 133 New York Giants 72%
#6 107 Buffalo Bills 66%
#7 111 San Francisco 49ers 61%
#8 114 Chicago Bears 59%
#9 128 Denver Broncos 58%
#10 124 New York Jets 58%
#1 125 New England Patriots 79%
#2 131 Seattle Seahawks 75%
#3 115 Detroit Lions 74%
#4 130 Green Bay Packers 74%
#5 133 New York Giants 72%
#6 107 Buffalo Bills 66%
#7 111 San Francisco 49ers 61%
#8 114 Chicago Bears 59%
#9 128 Denver Broncos 58%
#10 124 New York Jets 58%
Dr. Bob - Hoops
*PITTSBURGH (-13) over Morehead State
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
Pitt is coming off an easy 84-51 win over Eastern Washington and the Panthers are vastly improved over last year’s disappointing season. I don’t expect Pitt to continue to make 42% of their 3-points shots (I project 37.7% going forward) but the Panthers are still better offensively and they’re much improved on the defensive side of the floor, where they really struggled last season. Pitt was traditionally ranked in the top 30 in compensated defensive efficiency under coach Jamie Dixon but last season they were 201st in that metric. The message to give more effort on defense has gotten through, as this year’s team ranks 26th in my variance adjusted defensive efficiency (they’ve actually been better but I don’t expect their opponents to continue to make just 59% of their free throws). Pitt is not as good as their scores have shown, as they’ve had about 5 points of positive variance per game in their favor, but they’re still underrated and my ratings, which adjust for variance, favor the Panthers by 16 points in this game. Morehead was crushed 59-92 at Indiana in their only game stepping up in class and the Eagles should have a tough time scoring against Pitt’s improved defense (unless they knock down a high percentage of 3-point shots). I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
Note: I released this play to my subscribers at 8:30 am PST when the line was -13. I still lean with Pitt at -14 or -13.5.
*Memphis (+3) over MIAMI
03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 703
The fortunes of these teams changed with the trade that sent Mario Chalmers from Miami to Memphis in mid-November. Chalmers wasn’t playing well statistically with Miami but the Heat haven’t been as good since he left (5-9 ATS) while Memphis has certainly gotten better. The Grizzlies have been outscored by 128 total points this season (a lot due to a 50 point loss to GSW) but they’re +43 points with Chalmers in the game and Memphis was 3-5 straight up and 2-6 ATS before Chalmers arrived and they’re 10-6 straight up and 7-9 ATS with him. Part of the reason Miami is worse and Memphis is better is simply due to regression to the mean in 3-point offense and defense, as Memphis was shooting 26% and allowing 41% before Chalmers arrived and Miami was shooting 34% and allowing just 27% before the trade. Those numbers would have regressed to the mean regardless of whether Chalmers was traded or not but I do believe Chalmers is a positive impact player and certainly an upgrade over Beno Udrih, who was the backup pointguard in Memphis before the trade (and is now at Miami). I’m not a fan of either of these teams but my ratings favor Miami by just ½ a point in this game and Memphis hasn’t lost consecutive games since the trade (5-0 straight up after a loss since then). I’ll take Memphis in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
*PITTSBURGH (-13) over Morehead State
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
Pitt is coming off an easy 84-51 win over Eastern Washington and the Panthers are vastly improved over last year’s disappointing season. I don’t expect Pitt to continue to make 42% of their 3-points shots (I project 37.7% going forward) but the Panthers are still better offensively and they’re much improved on the defensive side of the floor, where they really struggled last season. Pitt was traditionally ranked in the top 30 in compensated defensive efficiency under coach Jamie Dixon but last season they were 201st in that metric. The message to give more effort on defense has gotten through, as this year’s team ranks 26th in my variance adjusted defensive efficiency (they’ve actually been better but I don’t expect their opponents to continue to make just 59% of their free throws). Pitt is not as good as their scores have shown, as they’ve had about 5 points of positive variance per game in their favor, but they’re still underrated and my ratings, which adjust for variance, favor the Panthers by 16 points in this game. Morehead was crushed 59-92 at Indiana in their only game stepping up in class and the Eagles should have a tough time scoring against Pitt’s improved defense (unless they knock down a high percentage of 3-point shots). I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
Note: I released this play to my subscribers at 8:30 am PST when the line was -13. I still lean with Pitt at -14 or -13.5.
*Memphis (+3) over MIAMI
03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 703
The fortunes of these teams changed with the trade that sent Mario Chalmers from Miami to Memphis in mid-November. Chalmers wasn’t playing well statistically with Miami but the Heat haven’t been as good since he left (5-9 ATS) while Memphis has certainly gotten better. The Grizzlies have been outscored by 128 total points this season (a lot due to a 50 point loss to GSW) but they’re +43 points with Chalmers in the game and Memphis was 3-5 straight up and 2-6 ATS before Chalmers arrived and they’re 10-6 straight up and 7-9 ATS with him. Part of the reason Miami is worse and Memphis is better is simply due to regression to the mean in 3-point offense and defense, as Memphis was shooting 26% and allowing 41% before Chalmers arrived and Miami was shooting 34% and allowing just 27% before the trade. Those numbers would have regressed to the mean regardless of whether Chalmers was traded or not but I do believe Chalmers is a positive impact player and certainly an upgrade over Beno Udrih, who was the backup pointguard in Memphis before the trade (and is now at Miami). I’m not a fan of either of these teams but my ratings favor Miami by just ½ a point in this game and Memphis hasn’t lost consecutive games since the trade (5-0 straight up after a loss since then). I’ll take Memphis in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
