Randall the Handle
After an extended absence, the love affair with the Raiders appears to be back. That was quite evident when lines came out this week and Pittsburgh was listed as a 7-point choice for this one. The market spotted that number and began hammering the visitor, driving the number down to its current 4-point margin. While we respect Oakland’s resurgence, we’d rather trust the opening number. Pittsburgh’s loss to Cincinnati last week now has the Steelers realistically aiming for a wild-card entry to the playoffs. One of the teams they’ll likely need to surpass could very well be these Raiders. In the second of consecutive home games and with Ben Roethlisberger having had a game to get the kinks out, we expect the host Steelers to come out with their hair on fire. Pittsburgh is more than loaded on offence, even with D’Angelo Williams replacing the injured Le’Veon Bell. Defensively, the Steelers have flown under the radar, but this unit has been tested by the likes of the Patriots, Chargers, Cardinals and Bengals and held up very well with Pittsburgh, relinquishing the fifth-lowest amount of points per game in the league. Oakland’s defence cannot make such claims and that figures to be the difference here.
TAKING: STEELERS –4
Dolphins (3-4) at Bills (3-4)
LINE: BUFFALO by 3
After dismantling the Titans and Texans in consecutive weeks, the Dolphins had a taste of real competition, resulting in a pounding by the Patriots in Miami’s last game. While the Bills aren’t the Patriots, we still need proof that Miami has improved under their new coach rather than some “rah-rah” stuff against a pair of stiffs. Off their bye, Buffalo will field its healthiest squad in some time with LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins all expected to play. The Bills manhandled this foe 41-14 down in Miami in an earlier meeting and things won’t get easier for the Dolphins here. While opinions remain divided on the capabilities of QB Ryan Tannehill, there is no doubting his ineffectiveness in division road games. Visiting AFC East foes, Tannehill has thrown seven touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions in 10 games. Against others, the numbers greatly improve to 69 TDs compared to 39 picks. The Fish are 3-7 in those games and have been outscored by an average of 9.4 points per game, losing by double figures six times. With road games at the Jets and Patriots the next two weeks, this one is essential for the Bills. They should be up to this task.
TAKING: BILLS —3
Giants (4-4) at Buccaneers (3-4)
LINE: N.Y. GIANTS by 2½
Tough to tell how the Giants will respond after losing that crazy shootout in New Orleans last week, but the ability to slow down any opposing offence is an issue for the G-Men’s flawed defence. New York’s pass rush is nonexistent, putting added pressure on the Giants’ secondary. Hoping to help, but minus some fingers, DE Jason Pierre-Paul could see some action this weekend, but in a limited role. How he performs is anyone’s guess. While Tampa QB Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees, the rookie is improving each week as he adapts to the speed of the pro game. Winston is surrounded by enough talent to inflict damage to his guests, especially with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins returning to the lineup. Opposing tight ends have been eating New York’s defence for breakfast this season with no end in sight. Having won just one road game in four tries this season, we’re not sure the Giants should be favoured here. Now travelling for a second week in a row after that exhausting 52-49 loss last week and with a look-ahead home game vs. New England on deck, the Bucs are the play.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +2½
THE REST
Jaguars (2-5) at Jets (4-3)
LINE: N.Y. JETS by 7½
Don’t be fooled by the Jaguars’ win over the Bills in London. That was a gift courtesy of Bills backup QB EJ Manuel, who had three turnovers turn into scores in a three-minute span, spotting the Jags a 27-3 lead that they blew before winning late. The Jets figure to be angry after a pair of road losses at New England and Oakland. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s thumb appears to be okay and he should have little trouble dealing with a Jacksonville defence that allows the second-most points in the league at 29.6 per game. Jags have also been outscored by winning teams to the tune of 71-26 combined. Jacksonville is playing its fifth road game in six weeks with just one win in its past 18 away games.
TAKING: N.Y. JETS –7½
Rams (4-3) at Vikings (5-2)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 2
The Rams are suddenly intoxicating with their strong defence and rookie RB Todd Gurley taking the league by storm after record-breaking performances. Maybe St. Louis has turned a corner, but sometimes taking that corner too quickly can have a team bumping into things. Things like these Vikings. Minnesota is on a three-game winning streak and returns home after success in consecutive division road games. The Vikes have yet to lose on this field in three tries while the Rams have just one road win in three attempts. St. Louis is also on the road after two at home where it beat the Browns and 49ers — not exactly bulletin-board wins. Price here is short enough that a field goal takes the money and that works for us.
TAKING: VIKINGS —2
Titans (1-6) at Saints (4-4)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 8
Winners of three straight, the Saints are scratching and clawing their way back to contention, but they remain a team with plenty of defensive issues. Drew Brees cannot be expected to toss seven touchdowns each game like he did last week against the Giants. Granted, he may not need that many here, but Tennessee arrives with a new coach and with QB hopeful Marcus Mariota back in the lineup. While it is difficult to endorse the limited Titans, we aren’t anxious to be touting the Saints in this price range. New Orleans has been favoured by seven or more four times since last season and failed to cover each time, losing three of the four straight-up. This could be a low-scorer, making the points all the more attractive.
TAKING: TITANS +8
Redskins (3-4) at Patriots (7-0)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 14
The Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Given two years, it may not help. Still, it is a lot of points and the ’Skins aren’t quite as bad as some of the dregs that would be lined up in this price range vs. the Pats. Needing three scores to cover, the back door is wide open in this one and we’ve seen Kirk Cousins do battle to the very end, most recently in that big comeback win over the Bucs two weeks ago. Brady and Co. are in a rare situation where they don’t have an axe to grind with their opponent. The Pats come off games against Indy (Deflate-gate accusers) and Miami (division foe) before facing the Giants (two Super Bowls losses). Here’s hoping the host eases up.
TAKING: REDSKINS +14
Packers (6-1) at Panthers (7-0)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 2½
There are two quarterbacks we want going for us after a loss. One is Tom Brady. Aaron Rodgers is the other, as Rodgers has been even better than normal following a setback. With Rodgers at the controls, Green Bay doesn’t lose consecutive games often. We have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time it happened. More recently, the 2014 Packers lost four times in the regular season. In the games following those losses, Rodgers’ team went 4-0 while he averaged 320.3 yards passing with 3.5 touchdowns per game. Granted, the Panthers are no slouches, riding an 11-game regular-season win streak and possessing a top-tier defence. But Carolina’s offence is not to be trusted, relying too much on QB Cam Newton to improvise while lacking receiving threats. The Pack get back on track.
TAKING: PACKERS –2½
Falcons (6-2) at 49ers (2-6)
LINE: ATLANTA by 7
Any positive spin we put on the Niners is less convincing than a soccer player’s flop. That doesn’t mean we won’t try. It’s hard to believe that QB Blaine Gabbert is an upgrade over anyone, but that is the case here with a completely demoralized Colin Kaepernick taking a seat. Gabbert won’t be asked to do too much as San Fran will rely on its defence, a unit that has been giving up only 15 points per game on this field. Both 49ers wins occurred here when Minnesota and Baltimore left town empty-handed — and that was at a much lower price range. We can’t rely on Atlanta to spot a full touchdown on the road in their current form after squeezing by the Titans before losing at home to the Bucs.
TAKING: 49ERS +7
Broncos (7-0) at Colts (3-5)
LINE: DENVER by 5
If you saw Denver’s dominant win over the Packers last week, it becomes difficult to fade the Broncos. By the same token, witnessing the Colts bumble their way through three-plus quarters against the Panthers last Monday instils little confidence in this host. That sets up the perfect sell-high, buy-low scenario. Denver opened as a 3-point choice with bettors lining up to get at what they considered a short number and forcing the books to increase this spread to its current price point. With the contrasting form of these two, we certainly understand the support for Denver, but that doesn’t mean we’re buying it. Despite their 7-0 start, the Broncos are better at home. Four road games have produced wins, but each could easily have had a different result, which includes subpar opponents such as Cleveland, Detroit and K.C.
TAKING: COLTS +5
Eagles (3-4) at Cowboys (2-5)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 3
The Cowboys are a tough sell without Tony Romo at quarterback. Dallas is 0-5 since its star pivot went down, with both backups deployed in his absence being nothing short of useless. With the Cowboys’ inability to find the end zone, it’s no wonder that the Eagles are favoured in this divisional matchup. However, even if Philly QB Sam Bradford offers more than Dallas’ sub QBs, he’s still Sam Bradford, and spotting road points with him and his underwhelming offence can’t be recommended. Dallas’ last win was over these Eagles in Philadelphia. The Cowpokes’ defence was large that day, limiting the Eagles to 226 total yards and just seven rushing yards in a 20-10 final. Dallas’ stop unit is even better now with the addition of Greg Hardy. Despite challenges, the ’Boys can pull this one off.
TAKING: COWBOYS +3
Bears (2-5) at Chargers (2-6)
LINE: SAN DIEGO by 4
We admire Chicago’s tenacity as it’s stayed close in most of its games this season, splitting the past four 2-2 — all decided by three points or less. This could be the spot where the Bears run out of gas. This will be Chicago’s third road game in four weeks, with the only home game being a tiring overtime loss to the Vikings last week. Now John Fox’s squad must travel west to face an unfamiliar AFC team. Other NFC visitors have not fared well here, with San Diego winning 15 of its past 20 when hosting a club from its opposing conference. Trading points with Philip Rivers and his mates would normally be challenging for the Bears and now, without versatile RB Matt Forte, Chicago will find it that much tougher.
TAKING: CHARGERS –4
