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thekeyman

thekeyman

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MTI Sports

MTi's THREE-PACK OF NFL SIDE PLAYS!!

Game: New York Jets at Detroit Lions Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: New York Jets



Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers


Game: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
 
patriots12

patriots12

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thekeyman said:
MTI Sports

MTi's THREE-PACK OF NFL SIDE PLAYS!!

Game: New York Jets at Detroit Lions Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: New York Jets



Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers


Game: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens Nov 7 2010 1:00PM
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
Click to expand...



2010 NFL SHOCKER OF THE YEAR!!

Arizona Cardinals
 

1drmain

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jeff benton sunday

1-0 yesterday + 40 dimes with TCU plus $400. last 14 days he is up +375 dimes.

Jeff Benton SUNDAY'S ACTION

50 DIME selection on the Browns plus the points at home against the Patriots. Cleveland is catching between 4 and 4½ points both here in Vegas and offshore. Obviously, there’s a big difaerence between those 4 and 4½ – think final scores of 17-13, 21-17, 31-27, etc – so it’s implerative that you shop around and get the best of the number. If you absolutely don’t have the ability to grab +4½, then you need to buy the half-point and take Cleveland from 4 to 4½.





15 DIME selection on the Browns on the money-line over the Patriots. The money-line odds range from Cleveland at +175 to +190, with +180 being the prevairing number.








BROWNS (plus the points and money-line)





For starters, this is THE best situational play of the week. You’ve got the Browns coming out of their bye week, which came at an absolute perfect time with Cleveland coming off a stunning 30-17 victory at the Saints as a 12-point underdog (so the Browns have had plenty of time to “come down” from that victory).





Meanwhile, the Patriots are in a classic flat spot. They’ve won five straight games (despite getting outgained in three of them), and they’re coming off a three-week stretch in which they played a phyaical overtime home game against the Ravens (23-20 win), flew all the way to the West Coast and escaped with a 23-20 win over the mistake-prone Chargers (San Diego out-yarded New England 363-179 but committed four turnovers that led to most of the Pats’ points), then went all the way back home to face the Vikings last week (28-18 win despite getting outgained 410-362, with a gimpy Brett Favre completing 22 of 32 passes for 259 yards before leaving with a head injury).





Even though New England has won two of its three road games (beating the Chargers and Dolphins while losing at the Jets), they’ve done it with mirrors. Tom Brady and the normally explosive offense have generated just 245 total yards per game on the higlhway, including 74 rushing yards per game, while the defense has surrendered 366.3 yards per game (277.7 through the air). How did New England win those two roadies? Turnovers and special teams gaffes by their opponents. Well, Cleveland is above-average on special teams, and its two healthy quarterbacks (Seneca Wallace and rookie Colt McCoy) have thrown just three interceptions in the five games they’ve started this year.





Yes, the Browns have been outgained in six straight contests, but with the exception of a 28-10 loss at Pittsburgh in McCoy’s first career start (and it was 21-10 with 90 seconds to play), Cleveland has been in every game this season. In addition to the win at the Saints, the Browns beat the Bengals 23-20; they suffered narrow losses to the Bucs (17-14) and Chiefs (16-14) in the first two weeks; they went to Baltimore and led the Ravens 17-10 in the fourth quarter before losing 24-17 (as a 12-point ‘dog); and they fell 20-10 to the Falcons at home (Atlanta scored the game’s final 14 points on a 45-yard TD pass and an amazing 31-yard interception return for a touchdown by a defensive lineman).





Also, while the Browns’ offense has struggled most of the year, they’ve also run up against some very good defenses this season (Kansas City, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans all rank in the top 10 in points allowed, and all but the Falcons are in the top half of the league in yards allowed). The Patriots D gives up 384 total yards per game (only the Bills, Jags, Redskins and Texans are worse), and they’re 21st in points allowed (22 ppg).





Translation: New England is not as good as its record, and has simply benrfited from catching a ton of breaks. At the same time, the Browns aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates (they’re five points away from being 4-3 and had a legit chance to win six of their seven games). Today, I say the breaks start to even out for both squads.





Two other things to point out: 1) The Patriots have alternated home and road games all season to this point, and even though these guys are professionals, eventually that type of schedule wears on players and manifests itself in careless mistakes; and 2) The Browns have made their supporters a lot of money recently, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.





Bottom line here: New England is 7-1, has won six in a row (3-0-1 ATS in the last four) and has a Hall of Fame QB named Tom Brady. Cleveland is 2-5, has been outgained in six straight contests and is being quarterbacked by a rookie who is making his third career start. And yet the Patriots are barely favored here. That, my friends, is a gigantic red flag. And given the success road underdogs have had in the NFL this season, I’m backing the Browns not only plus the points, but to score the outright upset!





Cleveland 24, New England 21





 

Beattheman1

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Dr Bob

DR BOB
3* PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) 30 Indianapolis 19
3* Kansas City (+2) 24 OAKLAND 17

STRONG OPINION
HOUSTON (+3.0) 25 San Diego 23
 

Beattheman1

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Johnny Chang

20 DIME* NY Jets -5 over Detroit,
10 DIME* New England -4 over Cleveland
10 DIME* Oakland +1 over Kansas City
10 DIME* Chicago -3 over Buffalo
10 DIME* Philadelphia -3 over Indianapolis
 
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