DAVID MALINSKY
4* NEW ORLEANS over CAROLINA
What had been an under-achieving New Orleans offense, largely via injury, sent out a resounding “buy signal” in the second half vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday night – considering the quality of the Steeler defense, rate the 20-22 for 191 yards and two TD’s from Drew Brees among the best 30 minutes of football from a QB you will ever see. We believe the momentum builds off of that one, instead of creating a letdown, largely because the Saints themselves told us so, with an extra commitment this week, holding a practice on Monday instead of taking the day off. From Brees himself
"So we're here though today, as a team, meeting, watching film, working out, all that stuff, whereas normally in the past this would have been a 'Victory Monday.' So I think that goes to show you where our head's at and where our focus is at going into this next game, because Carolina always plays us tough, despite whatever their record is. Any divisional game on the road is a huge game, especially going into a bye week. So I think we understand the importance of this game. And the fact is every game counts the same, but divisional games count even more."
Yet this is not all about that offense getting into a high gear; in fact that is less than half of the story. What really makes this work is the matchup of a vastly under-rated Saints defense into the worst offense in the league. It has been a terrific season for that defense, which is allowing only 16.1 first downs and 287.3 yards per game, giving up just 12 TD’s eight games. But they are not getting their full due because there have been five returns for TD’s against the offense or special teams, which has had a major scoreboard impact. Now both Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer return this week, making it even easier for Gregg Williams to dial up his blitz packages, and after holding Jimmy Clausen and the Panthers to 10 first downs and 251 yards in that earlier home win, when DeAngelo Williams was healthy (13 carries for 86 yards and a TD), they can completely shackle Matt Moore, who will not have Williams in the backfield with him.
We noted the Moore issues in this week’s NFL ”Verities & Balderdash” column, a case of a guy that had a most misleading run at the end of LY, and simply is not good enough to start at this level, especially with a weak supporting offensive huddle. By not getting the earlier start vs. the Saints he has yet to see those Williams schemes in real time, and that not only can mean mistakes early, but also a securely locked back door when New Orleans takes control.
4* NEW ORLEANS over CAROLINA
What had been an under-achieving New Orleans offense, largely via injury, sent out a resounding “buy signal” in the second half vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday night – considering the quality of the Steeler defense, rate the 20-22 for 191 yards and two TD’s from Drew Brees among the best 30 minutes of football from a QB you will ever see. We believe the momentum builds off of that one, instead of creating a letdown, largely because the Saints themselves told us so, with an extra commitment this week, holding a practice on Monday instead of taking the day off. From Brees himself
"So we're here though today, as a team, meeting, watching film, working out, all that stuff, whereas normally in the past this would have been a 'Victory Monday.' So I think that goes to show you where our head's at and where our focus is at going into this next game, because Carolina always plays us tough, despite whatever their record is. Any divisional game on the road is a huge game, especially going into a bye week. So I think we understand the importance of this game. And the fact is every game counts the same, but divisional games count even more."
Yet this is not all about that offense getting into a high gear; in fact that is less than half of the story. What really makes this work is the matchup of a vastly under-rated Saints defense into the worst offense in the league. It has been a terrific season for that defense, which is allowing only 16.1 first downs and 287.3 yards per game, giving up just 12 TD’s eight games. But they are not getting their full due because there have been five returns for TD’s against the offense or special teams, which has had a major scoreboard impact. Now both Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer return this week, making it even easier for Gregg Williams to dial up his blitz packages, and after holding Jimmy Clausen and the Panthers to 10 first downs and 251 yards in that earlier home win, when DeAngelo Williams was healthy (13 carries for 86 yards and a TD), they can completely shackle Matt Moore, who will not have Williams in the backfield with him.
We noted the Moore issues in this week’s NFL ”Verities & Balderdash” column, a case of a guy that had a most misleading run at the end of LY, and simply is not good enough to start at this level, especially with a weak supporting offensive huddle. By not getting the earlier start vs. the Saints he has yet to see those Williams schemes in real time, and that not only can mean mistakes early, but also a securely locked back door when New Orleans takes control.
CKO Goldsheet
NFL:
10* = 3-5....CLEVE
9*= 5-3... SAN DIEGO
NFL TOTALS: 10-4..OVER JETS , UNDER NEW ENGLAND
NC Powerplays
4*= 7-10-1.... OVER SD, MINNY
3*= 3-7-1....NY GIANTS
2*= 1-5...
1*= 5-2...NEW ORLEANS
NC Powersweep
4* = 4-4...SD
3* = 6-3...MINNY
2* = 8-6-1...JETS , MIAMI
SYSTEM SELECTION = 5-3....JETS
PRO ANGELS:
4* = 0-0-1....MINNY
3* = 9-8-1.
NFL TOTALS:
3* = 13-11... OVER MINNY , OVER PHILLY , OVER CHICAGO
2* = 8-8....UNDER ATL , OVER SD
NELLY GREEN SHEET
5* = 3-5...JETS
4*= 6-2..CLEVE
3*= 5-3...BUFF
2*= 3-4-1...MINNY
1*= 3-5.....KC
‘OVER’/’UNDER’ OF THE WEEK = 7-1...OVER MINNY
TRENDS OF THE WEEK = 3-6....CINCI
Marc Lawrence Playbook
5* = 7-1....JETS
4* = 3-4-1...NY GIANTS
3* = 4-4...MIAMI
TOTALS:
5* = 4-4....OVER MINNY
4* = 3-5....UNDER ATL
3* = 6-2...UNDER CAROLINA
POINTWISE:
NFL:
1* =
2* = 5-3....MINNY
3* = 5-3...DALLAS
4* = 6-4...CAROLINA
5* = 7-5-1..JETS , SEATTLE
Statfox Plantinum Sheet
CONSENSUS BEST BETS : 53-60-3...BUFF, SD, CAROLINA , MINNY , TB , JETS , BALTY , CLEVE , SEATTLE , KC , INDY , GB , PITT
THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA
NFL: TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK : 6-3....MIAMI
THE GOLD SHEET
NFL KEY RELEASES: 15-9...TAMPA , KC , OVER PHILLY
THE RED SHEET:
88* = 2-7-1....KC
87* = 12-12....Minnesota, NY Jets, & Cincinnati
The Sports Reporter
SUPER BEST BET: 0-1
Best Bets: 4-11....ATL, BALTY
Recommended: 9-10...CLEVE , NY GIANTS
WINNING POINTS
BEST BET : 7-9....CHICAGO , KC
PREFERRED: 10-4-2....JETS , SAN DIEGI
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY
NFL BEST BETS: 12-18-2...NEW ENGLAND , MINNY , NY GIANTS , UNDER JETS
NFL CONSENSUS: 46-67-3...TAMPA, CHICAGO , NEW ENG, JETS , NEW ORL , MIAMI , HOUST , MINNY , NY GIANT, INDY , OAKLAND, GREEN BAY, PITT
NFL:
10* = 3-5....CLEVE
9*= 5-3... SAN DIEGO
NFL TOTALS: 10-4..OVER JETS , UNDER NEW ENGLAND
NC Powerplays
4*= 7-10-1.... OVER SD, MINNY
3*= 3-7-1....NY GIANTS
2*= 1-5...
1*= 5-2...NEW ORLEANS
NC Powersweep
4* = 4-4...SD
3* = 6-3...MINNY
2* = 8-6-1...JETS , MIAMI
SYSTEM SELECTION = 5-3....JETS
PRO ANGELS:
4* = 0-0-1....MINNY
3* = 9-8-1.
NFL TOTALS:
3* = 13-11... OVER MINNY , OVER PHILLY , OVER CHICAGO
2* = 8-8....UNDER ATL , OVER SD
NELLY GREEN SHEET
5* = 3-5...JETS
4*= 6-2..CLEVE
3*= 5-3...BUFF
2*= 3-4-1...MINNY
1*= 3-5.....KC
‘OVER’/’UNDER’ OF THE WEEK = 7-1...OVER MINNY
TRENDS OF THE WEEK = 3-6....CINCI
Marc Lawrence Playbook
5* = 7-1....JETS
4* = 3-4-1...NY GIANTS
3* = 4-4...MIAMI
TOTALS:
5* = 4-4....OVER MINNY
4* = 3-5....UNDER ATL
3* = 6-2...UNDER CAROLINA
POINTWISE:
NFL:
1* =
2* = 5-3....MINNY
3* = 5-3...DALLAS
4* = 6-4...CAROLINA
5* = 7-5-1..JETS , SEATTLE
Statfox Plantinum Sheet
CONSENSUS BEST BETS : 53-60-3...BUFF, SD, CAROLINA , MINNY , TB , JETS , BALTY , CLEVE , SEATTLE , KC , INDY , GB , PITT
THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA
NFL: TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK : 6-3....MIAMI
THE GOLD SHEET
NFL KEY RELEASES: 15-9...TAMPA , KC , OVER PHILLY
THE RED SHEET:
88* = 2-7-1....KC
87* = 12-12....Minnesota, NY Jets, & Cincinnati
The Sports Reporter
SUPER BEST BET: 0-1
Best Bets: 4-11....ATL, BALTY
Recommended: 9-10...CLEVE , NY GIANTS
WINNING POINTS
BEST BET : 7-9....CHICAGO , KC
PREFERRED: 10-4-2....JETS , SAN DIEGI
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY
NFL BEST BETS: 12-18-2...NEW ENGLAND , MINNY , NY GIANTS , UNDER JETS
NFL CONSENSUS: 46-67-3...TAMPA, CHICAGO , NEW ENG, JETS , NEW ORL , MIAMI , HOUST , MINNY , NY GIANT, INDY , OAKLAND, GREEN BAY, PITT
Sportpicks365
SPORTPICKS365 Full Card 11/7
39-23 run (all sports) for $1'760, 2-4 yesterday.
Palermo (soccer) +110 Top Play
Sampdoria (soccer) -104 Regular Play
Lazio (soccer) +160 Regular Play
Kosice (Hockey) +105 Regular Play
Atlanta Under 208 (NBA) -105 Regular Play
Boston Under 198 (NBA) -105 Regular Play
BOL!
SPORTPICKS365 Full Card 11/7
39-23 run (all sports) for $1'760, 2-4 yesterday.
Palermo (soccer) +110 Top Play
Sampdoria (soccer) -104 Regular Play
Lazio (soccer) +160 Regular Play
Kosice (Hockey) +105 Regular Play
Atlanta Under 208 (NBA) -105 Regular Play
Boston Under 198 (NBA) -105 Regular Play
BOL!
Statsystems report 11/7
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/7
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** NFL WEEK 9 QUICK HITS ***
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• BEARS (4-3) @ BILLS (0-7) - Winless Buffalo played heart out on road last two weeks, losing at tail end of OT to Ravens/Chiefs, two first place teams; they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-24-10 points, giving up 29.7 ppg (10 TD’s/34 drives), but this game is in Toronto, a home game for Bills but not outdoors. Bills converted 22-40 on 3rd down, but were -3 in turnovers; Fitzpatrick got his NFL start in St Louis when Martz was coach, so Bears could have insight on him. Chicago lost last two games, both at home by FG each; since 1993, Bears are 2-6 vs. spread as favorite coming off a bye. Chicago is 2-1 on road, losing 17-3 at Jets (gave up 10 sacks), beating Dallas/Carolina (combined 1-13). Since start of ’08 season, Buffalo is 1-6-1 vs. spread as a home underdog. Four of last five Buffalo games went over; four of last five Bear games stayed under.
• CHARGERS (3-5) @ TEXANS (4-3) - San Diego is 3-0 in series, winning 27-20 in only visit here, in 2004; Bolts had fifth punt blocked last week, leading to early safety- they’re 0-4 on road, losing by combined total of 18 points despite being favored in all four games (Bolts have been favored in every ’10 game). Short work week for Houston team that is 2-2 at home, losing to Dallas/Giants; winning side scored 27+ points in all four games. Texans are 4-4 in game following their last eight losses to nemesis Colts- they allowed 34-31-30 points in last three games overall, and haven’t had a takeaway in four of their seven games this year. San Diego is 3-9 in last dozen games as road favorite. Five of last seven San Diego games went over the total.
• SAINTS (5-3) @ PANTHERS (1-6) - New Orleans (-13.5) escaped with 16-14 win in Carolina’s visit to Superdome in Week 4; Saints had 383-251 edge in yardage, but had only one TD (three FGs) in five trips in Carolina red zone. Panthers haven’t been swept in this season series since 2001, winning three of last four series games played here. Carolina is 2-3 as underdog, 1-3 SU at home, losing by 13-13-17 points (scored 7-7-6); they scored 14 or less points in each of last five losses. Saints allowed 27-30-30 points in their three losses; they were -2/-3/-4 in turnovers in those three games. Home underdogs are 11-4-1 vs. spread in divisional games so far this season, but home teams are 0-4 vs. spread in NFC South tilts so far in 2010.
• CARDINALS (3-4) @ VIKINGS (2-5) - Larry Fitzgerald returns home with Arizona squad lacking competent QB play; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in six of seven games this year (-9 in turnovers for year), with 14 giveaways in four road games. Arizona is 0-3 as road dog this season, losing away games by 34-31-12 points (won road opener as favorite in St Louis). Viking soap opera rambles on with Moss getting fired this week; Favre is playing hurt, and team is 2-1 at home- they’re 0-4 when scoring less than 24 points. Minnesota lost 30-17 in desert LY, their third loss in last 12 series games; Redbirds lost last five visits here, with their last win back in ’97. Last four Minnesota games all went over the total, as did four of last five Cardinal games.
• BUCCANEERS (5-2) @ FALCONS (5-2) - Unlikely battle for first in NFC South; Home side won four of last five series games, with average total in last eight meetings, 30.1. Bucs lost last two visits here, 13-10ot/20-17. Four of Tampa Bay’s five wins are by 3 or less points, and they’ve won last five road games, with defense scoring three TD’s in last two games on foreign soil. Atlanta is 4-2 in game following its last six byes, covering three of last four as post-bye favorite. Falcons are 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite) winning by 34-2-7 points, while scoring 32 ppg. Bucs have been plus in turnovers in five of seven games, even in the other two. Home favorites are 5-13 vs. spread in divisional games this season, 0-3 in NFC South games.
• JETS (5-2) @ LIONS (2-5) - Gang Green allowed 9-10 points in its two losses, failing to score offensive TD in either game; they’re 5-1 as road favorite under Ryan, winning away games this year by 31-23/38-14/24-20 scores. Detroit is 6-1 vs. spread this year, covering last four; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Eagles by 3 (trailed by 15 late), beating Rams 44-6, Redskins 37-25 (scored 17 points in last 4:32). Lions scored four TDs last week, but longest drive of the four was 52 yards; they had 13-yard edge in field position. Detroit allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. AFC East favorites are 4-3-1 vs. spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-3-1, 1-0 at home. Five of last six games for both sides went over the total.
• DOLPHINS (4-3) @ RAVENS (5-2) - Miami is 4-0 on road (underdog in last three), 0-3 at home, which explains low spread. Fish are on road for third time in four weeks; they didn’t allow second half TD in either of last two games. Dogs covered their last six games overall. Ravens split pair of OT games before their bye; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3 points (1-2 as home favorite). Baltimore covered its last five games as a post-bye favorite; they beat Miami twice in ’08, including 27-9 playoff win. AFC East road underdogs are 6-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 1-4. All four Miami road games stayed under the total. All three Baltimore home games went over.
• PATRIOTS (6-1) @ BROWNS (2-5) - Belichick was 37-45 as coach of old Browns before they moved away. Patriots won two of last three visits here, winning by 12-27 points. NE won last five games (3-0-1 vs. spread in last four); they’re 2-1 on road, losing to Jets, winning by 27 at Miami, 3 at San Diego- they’re 1-4-1 vs. spread in last six games as road favorite. Cleveland split last four games after 0-3 start; they scored 17 or less points in all five losses, 23-30 in their wins. Pats’ last four foes all scored 20 or less points. Favorites are 9-0 vs. spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games; Browns are 0-5 as post-bye underdog, also losing five of last six games to Patriots, with four of five losses by 11+ points (last two were 34-17/42-15). Over is 5-2 in Patriot games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland contests.
• GIANTS (5-2) @ SEAHAWKS (4-3) - Home side won last nine series games; Giants lost last four visits here, by 5-2-3-12 points- their last win in Seattle was in 1981, but Big Blue was on roll before bye, winning last four games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three (13 TD’s on 38 drives). Jersey ran ball for 163.3 ypg in last four games, but they’ve also turned ball over 3+ times in five of seven game- they’re 4-0 with even/positive turnover ratio, with all four wins by 8+ points. Seattle is 3-0 at home, allowing just 8.7 ppg in wins over 49ers-Chargers-Cardinals (combined record, 8-14). NFC West home underdogs are 5-0 vs. spread in non-divisional games. NFC East favorites are 4-7, 1-2 on foreign soil. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
• CHIEFS (5-2) @ RAIDERS (4-4) - Home side lost last seven games in this rivalry, with teams splitting last six, after Chiefs won previous eight; KC won last seven visits here, with six of the seven wins by 7 or less points. Chiefs are 4-1 as underdog this year, 2-1 as road dog, winning at Houston, but losing 19-9 at Indy (Colts didn’t score TD until last 5:00), 35-31 at Houston (Chiefs led by 10 in 4th quarter). KC hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+4). Oakland is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as home favorite, allowing 18.8 ppg at home- they had 328-239 rushing yards in last two games, as Bush/McFadden rushing tandem proving to be very productive. Oakland allowed only four TD’s on foes’ last 48 drives. Average total in last eight series games is 28.9; average in last four played here, 27.5.
• COLTS (5-2) @ EAGLES (4-3) - Andy Reid won his last 10 post-bye games (9-1 vs spread). Banged-up Indy traveling on short work week after tough divisional win, so letdown here likely, even on national TV, vs. Philly squad coming off bye. Eagles scored 27+ points in all four wins, 20-12-19 in losses; curious to see if Kolb/Vick gets start under center. Colts won last four series games, all by 22+ points; they won four of last five visits here, with last two by 44-17/35-13 margins, but last visit here was in ’02. Indy is 2-2 on road, losing by 10 at Houston, 3 at Jacksonville (allowed 34-31 points in losses); they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 31 points. This is first time Colts have been underdog in 2010; since 2006, they’re 7-3 as single digit dog- since ’01, they’re 6-0-1 vs. spread when an underdog of 3 or less points.
• Cowboys (1-6) @ Packers (5-3) - Dallas is a disaster, losing last four games while allowing 34.5 ppg (16 TD’s on 46 drives); having 38-year old backup Kitna under center ain’t helping any. Green Bay has much-needed bye after this game; before last week’s 9-0 win in Swamp, their previous five games had been decided by 4 or less points. Pack is 2-2 as home fave this year (14-11-1 since ’06)- their only win this year by more than 7 points was 34-7 in Week 2 over winless Bills. Home side won 12 of last 13 games in this series, with Dallas 1-6 at Lambeau Field (only win in ’08—they were also 3-2 in five games in Milwaukee). Six of eight Packer games stayed under total, but last four Dallas games went over.
__________________________________________________ _______
• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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The Miami Dolphins have become ‘Kings of the Road’ in the NFL under HC Tony Sparano. He's - 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS, as a traveler, including 10-1 ATS off win and 9-0 ATS when taking points. “And as I have been reporting right here on these pages, 'Tuff Tony is now 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS taking points on the highway from Game Four out!”
Meanwhile, the Ravens awake off their Bye Week knowing they were outgained by 142 yards in a 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo prior to the break. The Black Birds also know they have cashed in only six of the last 18 tries as favorites in games off a win/no-cover.
______________
• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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I’m always late to the party, and not in a good, fashionably late kind of way. The Chiefs opened up as 2.5-point dogs at Oakland and have been bet down to almost a pick. Sharps aren’t buying the Raiders’ two-game offensive explosion and neither should we! In fact, since 1980 if you were to - Play Against any NFL favorite off BB wins of 30 or more points each - you would have cashed twelve of the seventeen tickets purchase.
This weeks NFL System of the Week tells us to: Play Against - Home favorites - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games. The systems has gone - 48-19, (71.6%) over the last 5 seasons.
Jason Campbell isn’t going to throw for 310 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City like he did against the Seahawks... Something tells me the Raiders weak offensive line won’t be able to keep Campbell upright especially with K.C.’s CB duo blanketing the coverage down the field. Not since their Super Bowl season of 2002, have the Raiders been .500 in November!
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
-------------------------------------------
--HC NORV TURNER: Is 23-7 SU and 20-9-1 ATS during the 2nd half of the season with the Chargers, including 17-6-1 ATS when off a win. In addition, our QB League (at Stat/Systems Sports) also reminds us that Philip Rivers is a sparkling 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in his NFL starting career when facing a .500 or greater foe that is off a loss.
--CAROLINA: Is 10-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when playing with division revenge... 10-2 ATS as a dog off one loss exact under John Fox... NFL underdogs off a SU and ATS loss are 30-10 ATS this season.
--PHILADELPHIA: Is 13-1 ATS with revenge when playing off a double-digit spread loss... They are also 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with rest under Reid, including 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season.
_____________________________________________
• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
------------------------------------------
--DETROIT: Is 0-11 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since November 10, 2002 after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
--OAKLAND: Is 0-13 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since September 17, 2000 within 3 of pick at home vs a divisional opponent.
--PHILADELPHIA: Is 11-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since 1991 when they lost by 14+ last game and committed 4+ turnovers.
--NY GIANTS: Are 11-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since October 19, 1997 when they rushed for 200+ yards over a divisional team.
--CAROLINA: Is 10-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 29, 2002 when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up of the season.
--MIAMI: Is 10-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 23, 2007 as a road dog after a straight up win.
--ARIZONA: Is 17-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a road dog or favorite of less than three points, after a straight up loss.
--DETROIT: Is 14-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since December 12, 1999 as a dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date
--TAMPA BAY: Is 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 01, 1996 as a 7+ dog vs a divisional opponent.
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/7
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** NFL WEEK 9 QUICK HITS ***
----------------------------------------
• BEARS (4-3) @ BILLS (0-7) - Winless Buffalo played heart out on road last two weeks, losing at tail end of OT to Ravens/Chiefs, two first place teams; they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-24-10 points, giving up 29.7 ppg (10 TD’s/34 drives), but this game is in Toronto, a home game for Bills but not outdoors. Bills converted 22-40 on 3rd down, but were -3 in turnovers; Fitzpatrick got his NFL start in St Louis when Martz was coach, so Bears could have insight on him. Chicago lost last two games, both at home by FG each; since 1993, Bears are 2-6 vs. spread as favorite coming off a bye. Chicago is 2-1 on road, losing 17-3 at Jets (gave up 10 sacks), beating Dallas/Carolina (combined 1-13). Since start of ’08 season, Buffalo is 1-6-1 vs. spread as a home underdog. Four of last five Buffalo games went over; four of last five Bear games stayed under.
• CHARGERS (3-5) @ TEXANS (4-3) - San Diego is 3-0 in series, winning 27-20 in only visit here, in 2004; Bolts had fifth punt blocked last week, leading to early safety- they’re 0-4 on road, losing by combined total of 18 points despite being favored in all four games (Bolts have been favored in every ’10 game). Short work week for Houston team that is 2-2 at home, losing to Dallas/Giants; winning side scored 27+ points in all four games. Texans are 4-4 in game following their last eight losses to nemesis Colts- they allowed 34-31-30 points in last three games overall, and haven’t had a takeaway in four of their seven games this year. San Diego is 3-9 in last dozen games as road favorite. Five of last seven San Diego games went over the total.
• SAINTS (5-3) @ PANTHERS (1-6) - New Orleans (-13.5) escaped with 16-14 win in Carolina’s visit to Superdome in Week 4; Saints had 383-251 edge in yardage, but had only one TD (three FGs) in five trips in Carolina red zone. Panthers haven’t been swept in this season series since 2001, winning three of last four series games played here. Carolina is 2-3 as underdog, 1-3 SU at home, losing by 13-13-17 points (scored 7-7-6); they scored 14 or less points in each of last five losses. Saints allowed 27-30-30 points in their three losses; they were -2/-3/-4 in turnovers in those three games. Home underdogs are 11-4-1 vs. spread in divisional games so far this season, but home teams are 0-4 vs. spread in NFC South tilts so far in 2010.
• CARDINALS (3-4) @ VIKINGS (2-5) - Larry Fitzgerald returns home with Arizona squad lacking competent QB play; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in six of seven games this year (-9 in turnovers for year), with 14 giveaways in four road games. Arizona is 0-3 as road dog this season, losing away games by 34-31-12 points (won road opener as favorite in St Louis). Viking soap opera rambles on with Moss getting fired this week; Favre is playing hurt, and team is 2-1 at home- they’re 0-4 when scoring less than 24 points. Minnesota lost 30-17 in desert LY, their third loss in last 12 series games; Redbirds lost last five visits here, with their last win back in ’97. Last four Minnesota games all went over the total, as did four of last five Cardinal games.
• BUCCANEERS (5-2) @ FALCONS (5-2) - Unlikely battle for first in NFC South; Home side won four of last five series games, with average total in last eight meetings, 30.1. Bucs lost last two visits here, 13-10ot/20-17. Four of Tampa Bay’s five wins are by 3 or less points, and they’ve won last five road games, with defense scoring three TD’s in last two games on foreign soil. Atlanta is 4-2 in game following its last six byes, covering three of last four as post-bye favorite. Falcons are 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite) winning by 34-2-7 points, while scoring 32 ppg. Bucs have been plus in turnovers in five of seven games, even in the other two. Home favorites are 5-13 vs. spread in divisional games this season, 0-3 in NFC South games.
• JETS (5-2) @ LIONS (2-5) - Gang Green allowed 9-10 points in its two losses, failing to score offensive TD in either game; they’re 5-1 as road favorite under Ryan, winning away games this year by 31-23/38-14/24-20 scores. Detroit is 6-1 vs. spread this year, covering last four; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Eagles by 3 (trailed by 15 late), beating Rams 44-6, Redskins 37-25 (scored 17 points in last 4:32). Lions scored four TDs last week, but longest drive of the four was 52 yards; they had 13-yard edge in field position. Detroit allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. AFC East favorites are 4-3-1 vs. spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-3-1, 1-0 at home. Five of last six games for both sides went over the total.
• DOLPHINS (4-3) @ RAVENS (5-2) - Miami is 4-0 on road (underdog in last three), 0-3 at home, which explains low spread. Fish are on road for third time in four weeks; they didn’t allow second half TD in either of last two games. Dogs covered their last six games overall. Ravens split pair of OT games before their bye; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3 points (1-2 as home favorite). Baltimore covered its last five games as a post-bye favorite; they beat Miami twice in ’08, including 27-9 playoff win. AFC East road underdogs are 6-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 1-4. All four Miami road games stayed under the total. All three Baltimore home games went over.
• PATRIOTS (6-1) @ BROWNS (2-5) - Belichick was 37-45 as coach of old Browns before they moved away. Patriots won two of last three visits here, winning by 12-27 points. NE won last five games (3-0-1 vs. spread in last four); they’re 2-1 on road, losing to Jets, winning by 27 at Miami, 3 at San Diego- they’re 1-4-1 vs. spread in last six games as road favorite. Cleveland split last four games after 0-3 start; they scored 17 or less points in all five losses, 23-30 in their wins. Pats’ last four foes all scored 20 or less points. Favorites are 9-0 vs. spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games; Browns are 0-5 as post-bye underdog, also losing five of last six games to Patriots, with four of five losses by 11+ points (last two were 34-17/42-15). Over is 5-2 in Patriot games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland contests.
• GIANTS (5-2) @ SEAHAWKS (4-3) - Home side won last nine series games; Giants lost last four visits here, by 5-2-3-12 points- their last win in Seattle was in 1981, but Big Blue was on roll before bye, winning last four games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three (13 TD’s on 38 drives). Jersey ran ball for 163.3 ypg in last four games, but they’ve also turned ball over 3+ times in five of seven game- they’re 4-0 with even/positive turnover ratio, with all four wins by 8+ points. Seattle is 3-0 at home, allowing just 8.7 ppg in wins over 49ers-Chargers-Cardinals (combined record, 8-14). NFC West home underdogs are 5-0 vs. spread in non-divisional games. NFC East favorites are 4-7, 1-2 on foreign soil. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
• CHIEFS (5-2) @ RAIDERS (4-4) - Home side lost last seven games in this rivalry, with teams splitting last six, after Chiefs won previous eight; KC won last seven visits here, with six of the seven wins by 7 or less points. Chiefs are 4-1 as underdog this year, 2-1 as road dog, winning at Houston, but losing 19-9 at Indy (Colts didn’t score TD until last 5:00), 35-31 at Houston (Chiefs led by 10 in 4th quarter). KC hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+4). Oakland is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as home favorite, allowing 18.8 ppg at home- they had 328-239 rushing yards in last two games, as Bush/McFadden rushing tandem proving to be very productive. Oakland allowed only four TD’s on foes’ last 48 drives. Average total in last eight series games is 28.9; average in last four played here, 27.5.
• COLTS (5-2) @ EAGLES (4-3) - Andy Reid won his last 10 post-bye games (9-1 vs spread). Banged-up Indy traveling on short work week after tough divisional win, so letdown here likely, even on national TV, vs. Philly squad coming off bye. Eagles scored 27+ points in all four wins, 20-12-19 in losses; curious to see if Kolb/Vick gets start under center. Colts won last four series games, all by 22+ points; they won four of last five visits here, with last two by 44-17/35-13 margins, but last visit here was in ’02. Indy is 2-2 on road, losing by 10 at Houston, 3 at Jacksonville (allowed 34-31 points in losses); they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 31 points. This is first time Colts have been underdog in 2010; since 2006, they’re 7-3 as single digit dog- since ’01, they’re 6-0-1 vs. spread when an underdog of 3 or less points.
• Cowboys (1-6) @ Packers (5-3) - Dallas is a disaster, losing last four games while allowing 34.5 ppg (16 TD’s on 46 drives); having 38-year old backup Kitna under center ain’t helping any. Green Bay has much-needed bye after this game; before last week’s 9-0 win in Swamp, their previous five games had been decided by 4 or less points. Pack is 2-2 as home fave this year (14-11-1 since ’06)- their only win this year by more than 7 points was 34-7 in Week 2 over winless Bills. Home side won 12 of last 13 games in this series, with Dallas 1-6 at Lambeau Field (only win in ’08—they were also 3-2 in five games in Milwaukee). Six of eight Packer games stayed under total, but last four Dallas games went over.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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The Miami Dolphins have become ‘Kings of the Road’ in the NFL under HC Tony Sparano. He's - 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS, as a traveler, including 10-1 ATS off win and 9-0 ATS when taking points. “And as I have been reporting right here on these pages, 'Tuff Tony is now 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS taking points on the highway from Game Four out!”
Meanwhile, the Ravens awake off their Bye Week knowing they were outgained by 142 yards in a 37-34 overtime win over Buffalo prior to the break. The Black Birds also know they have cashed in only six of the last 18 tries as favorites in games off a win/no-cover.
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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I’m always late to the party, and not in a good, fashionably late kind of way. The Chiefs opened up as 2.5-point dogs at Oakland and have been bet down to almost a pick. Sharps aren’t buying the Raiders’ two-game offensive explosion and neither should we! In fact, since 1980 if you were to - Play Against any NFL favorite off BB wins of 30 or more points each - you would have cashed twelve of the seventeen tickets purchase.
This weeks NFL System of the Week tells us to: Play Against - Home favorites - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games. The systems has gone - 48-19, (71.6%) over the last 5 seasons.
Jason Campbell isn’t going to throw for 310 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City like he did against the Seahawks... Something tells me the Raiders weak offensive line won’t be able to keep Campbell upright especially with K.C.’s CB duo blanketing the coverage down the field. Not since their Super Bowl season of 2002, have the Raiders been .500 in November!
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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--HC NORV TURNER: Is 23-7 SU and 20-9-1 ATS during the 2nd half of the season with the Chargers, including 17-6-1 ATS when off a win. In addition, our QB League (at Stat/Systems Sports) also reminds us that Philip Rivers is a sparkling 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in his NFL starting career when facing a .500 or greater foe that is off a loss.
--CAROLINA: Is 10-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when playing with division revenge... 10-2 ATS as a dog off one loss exact under John Fox... NFL underdogs off a SU and ATS loss are 30-10 ATS this season.
--PHILADELPHIA: Is 13-1 ATS with revenge when playing off a double-digit spread loss... They are also 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with rest under Reid, including 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season.
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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--DETROIT: Is 0-11 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since November 10, 2002 after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
--OAKLAND: Is 0-13 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since September 17, 2000 within 3 of pick at home vs a divisional opponent.
--PHILADELPHIA: Is 11-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since 1991 when they lost by 14+ last game and committed 4+ turnovers.
--NY GIANTS: Are 11-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since October 19, 1997 when they rushed for 200+ yards over a divisional team.
--CAROLINA: Is 10-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 29, 2002 when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up of the season.
--MIAMI: Is 10-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 23, 2007 as a road dog after a straight up win.
--ARIZONA: Is 17-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a road dog or favorite of less than three points, after a straight up loss.
--DETROIT: Is 14-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since December 12, 1999 as a dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date
--TAMPA BAY: Is 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 01, 1996 as a 7+ dog vs a divisional opponent.
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/7 cont.
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.4, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--KANSAS CITY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 19, OPPONENT 27.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 22.5, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 10, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 24.4, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 21.7, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.6, OPPONENT 20 - (Rating = 2*)
--CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 29.9, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 24, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 15.6, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--KANSAS CITY is 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.7, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 18.6, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--OAKLAND is 28-58 ATS (-35.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 19.3, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 2*)
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• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--NY GIANTS are 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 18.8, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) in home games after a terrible performance - <26 minutes TOP, <13 First downs since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 4*)
--SEATTLE is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 11.2, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 15.4, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 15.2, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.2, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 47-22 UNDER (+22.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 18.5, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER (+7 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BUFFALO 11.7, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 44-19 UNDER (+23.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 18, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 8.3, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 24.4, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER (+7 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 28.1, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 26.9, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARIZONA is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in road games after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 24.7, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARIZONA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 31.2, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.4, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--KANSAS CITY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 19, OPPONENT 27.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 22.5, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 10, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.8, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 24.4, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 21.7, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 22.6, OPPONENT 20 - (Rating = 2*)
--CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 29.9, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 24, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 15.6, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--KANSAS CITY is 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.7, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 18.6, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--OAKLAND is 28-58 ATS (-35.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 19.3, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 2*)
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• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--NY GIANTS are 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 18.8, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) in home games after a terrible performance - <26 minutes TOP, <13 First downs since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.8, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 4*)
--SEATTLE is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 11.2, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAROLINA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 15.4, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 15.2, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 23.2, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 47-22 UNDER (+22.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 18.5, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER (+7 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BUFFALO 11.7, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 44-19 UNDER (+23.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 18, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 8.3, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 24.4, OPPONENT 26 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER (+7 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 28.1, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 26.9, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARIZONA is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in road games after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 24.7, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARIZONA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 31.2, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 2*)
Bobby Maxwell
Sunday's winners...
600-Unit NFL E-Z Winner - BALTIMORE RAVENS
Everybody is talking about Miami’s 4-0 road record as the Dolphins head into Baltimore to take on the Ravens, but what is not explained is that they really struggle in the red zone and have had to settle for 10 FGs the last two weeks and just 2 TDs in a home loss to the Steelers and a road win in Cincinnati. The Ravens and that vaunted defense will do much of the same and force this team to kick FGs, but they have the offense that will score TDs against the Dolphins. Lay the points with Baltimore as they will win this one by at least two TDs.
It was two weeks ago when Baltimore’s defense was shredded by the lowly Bills, but the Ravens managed to make a big play in OT and get a 37-34 win. They allowed 514 yards, the highest total they’ve given up in 10 years. Their bye week showed up at the perfect time and they have shored up the pass defense and have gotten some people healthy.
On offense, QB Joe Flacco has thrown five TDs without an INT in his last two games and when he throws for a TD at home, the Ravens are 11-1. He has a healthy unit of receivers with TE Todd Heap and WRs Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Donte Stallworth, who will likely make his season debut today.
This Baltimore defense has dominated the Dolphins in recent years, winning in the 2008 regular season and then knocking them out of the playoffs in the same year, holding Miami to 61.5 yards per game on the ground.
Miami still likes to think of itself as a running team with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, but they are just 16th in the league in rushing at 111.3 yards per game. This team really belongs to QB Chad Henne and his favorite WR Brandon Marshall.
Baltimore will lock down Marshall and get pressure all over Henne, who has proven to make some bad decisions when he’s being pressured.
The Ravens are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 7-2 after a bye week, and 43-19-1 as a home favorite. I’ll lay the points with them today as they are going to completely manhandle the Dolphins and win this one by double-digits.
100-Unit NFL Smart Play - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
These two teams have not met since 2006, and while the Colts have dominated recent history against the Eagles, this is a completely different Philadelphia team and with Michael Vick at QB, the Eagles will make things tough on the Indianapolis defense.
Vick comes in healthy and well rested after sitting out three games and a bye week to get his ribs back to normal after an injury against Washington on Oct. 3. Vick has not thrown an INT this season and has six TDs. He’s also run for 187 yards and his mobility will need to be in full effect today as he has the Indianapolis DEs coming at him and Dwight Freeney taking dead aim at him.
But it’s Vick that is smart enough to not be there when they come and he’ll buy time to let his WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get downfield and get open. The Eagles have had two weeks off since that 37-19 loss in Tennessee. This team is just 1-2 in front of the home fans, but its last game was quite impressive, beating the Falcons 31-17 as one-point favorites.
Indianapolis outdoors is a tough team to predict. This team seems built for the indoors and they have so many injuries that they are dealing with, there’s just not going to be any consistency on the offensive end. Put this team outdoors this season and they struggled in Washington, pushing with a 27-24 win. At Jacksonville, they fell 31-28 as seven-point road favorites and in Denver they were outgained in every way, but scored a 27-13 win thanks to some key turnovers.
The Colts are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on grass, 1-3-1 on the road and 1-3-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four after a bye week and 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of up to 3 points.
I’m banking on Vick and the Eagles getting some long passing TDs today as Vick buys time. Go ahead and play Philadelphia in this one.
Sunday's winners...
600-Unit NFL E-Z Winner - BALTIMORE RAVENS
Everybody is talking about Miami’s 4-0 road record as the Dolphins head into Baltimore to take on the Ravens, but what is not explained is that they really struggle in the red zone and have had to settle for 10 FGs the last two weeks and just 2 TDs in a home loss to the Steelers and a road win in Cincinnati. The Ravens and that vaunted defense will do much of the same and force this team to kick FGs, but they have the offense that will score TDs against the Dolphins. Lay the points with Baltimore as they will win this one by at least two TDs.
It was two weeks ago when Baltimore’s defense was shredded by the lowly Bills, but the Ravens managed to make a big play in OT and get a 37-34 win. They allowed 514 yards, the highest total they’ve given up in 10 years. Their bye week showed up at the perfect time and they have shored up the pass defense and have gotten some people healthy.
On offense, QB Joe Flacco has thrown five TDs without an INT in his last two games and when he throws for a TD at home, the Ravens are 11-1. He has a healthy unit of receivers with TE Todd Heap and WRs Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Donte Stallworth, who will likely make his season debut today.
This Baltimore defense has dominated the Dolphins in recent years, winning in the 2008 regular season and then knocking them out of the playoffs in the same year, holding Miami to 61.5 yards per game on the ground.
Miami still likes to think of itself as a running team with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, but they are just 16th in the league in rushing at 111.3 yards per game. This team really belongs to QB Chad Henne and his favorite WR Brandon Marshall.
Baltimore will lock down Marshall and get pressure all over Henne, who has proven to make some bad decisions when he’s being pressured.
The Ravens are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 7-2 after a bye week, and 43-19-1 as a home favorite. I’ll lay the points with them today as they are going to completely manhandle the Dolphins and win this one by double-digits.
100-Unit NFL Smart Play - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
These two teams have not met since 2006, and while the Colts have dominated recent history against the Eagles, this is a completely different Philadelphia team and with Michael Vick at QB, the Eagles will make things tough on the Indianapolis defense.
Vick comes in healthy and well rested after sitting out three games and a bye week to get his ribs back to normal after an injury against Washington on Oct. 3. Vick has not thrown an INT this season and has six TDs. He’s also run for 187 yards and his mobility will need to be in full effect today as he has the Indianapolis DEs coming at him and Dwight Freeney taking dead aim at him.
But it’s Vick that is smart enough to not be there when they come and he’ll buy time to let his WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get downfield and get open. The Eagles have had two weeks off since that 37-19 loss in Tennessee. This team is just 1-2 in front of the home fans, but its last game was quite impressive, beating the Falcons 31-17 as one-point favorites.
Indianapolis outdoors is a tough team to predict. This team seems built for the indoors and they have so many injuries that they are dealing with, there’s just not going to be any consistency on the offensive end. Put this team outdoors this season and they struggled in Washington, pushing with a 27-24 win. At Jacksonville, they fell 31-28 as seven-point road favorites and in Denver they were outgained in every way, but scored a 27-13 win thanks to some key turnovers.
The Colts are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on grass, 1-3-1 on the road and 1-3-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four after a bye week and 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of up to 3 points.
I’m banking on Vick and the Eagles getting some long passing TDs today as Vick buys time. Go ahead and play Philadelphia in this one.
Matt Fargo
10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (5-0 LAST SUNDAY)
The NFL season has been TRULY EPIC as Matt is coming off a PERFECT 5-0 SWEEP last Sunday to extend his NFL regular season record to an ABSOLUTELY STAGGERING 30-14-5 (68.2%)! He gets Week Nine underway with a MONSTER report as he is releasing his one and only NFL Game of the Month! If you are looking for one MAJOR MOVE this is the one!
10* Ny Jets -4
10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (5-0 LAST SUNDAY)
The NFL season has been TRULY EPIC as Matt is coming off a PERFECT 5-0 SWEEP last Sunday to extend his NFL regular season record to an ABSOLUTELY STAGGERING 30-14-5 (68.2%)! He gets Week Nine underway with a MONSTER report as he is releasing his one and only NFL Game of the Month! If you are looking for one MAJOR MOVE this is the one!
10* Ny Jets -4
The Gold Medal Club: NFL
25* Houston
25* Jets
25* Philadelphia
50* Baltimore
GL boys.
25* Houston
25* Jets
25* Philadelphia
50* Baltimore
GL boys.
SuperSportsGroup
New Orleans v. Carolina 1pm
PICK: Panthers +6.5 Game
PICK: OVER 40 Game
Tampa Bay v. Atlanta 1pm
PICK: Bucs +9 Game
PICK: Bucs +5.5 1H
San Diego v. Houston 1pm
PICK: Texans +3 Game Best bet of the day #1
KC v. Oakland 4:15pm
PICK: KC pkm
PICK: UNDER 41 Game Game of the week
Indianapolis v. Philadelphia 4:15pm
PICK: Colts +3 Game Best bet of the day #2
PICK: OVER 23.5 1H
***Sunday night game will be added later****
New Orleans v. Carolina 1pm
PICK: Panthers +6.5 Game
PICK: OVER 40 Game
Tampa Bay v. Atlanta 1pm
PICK: Bucs +9 Game
PICK: Bucs +5.5 1H
San Diego v. Houston 1pm
PICK: Texans +3 Game Best bet of the day #1
KC v. Oakland 4:15pm
PICK: KC pkm
PICK: UNDER 41 Game Game of the week
Indianapolis v. Philadelphia 4:15pm
PICK: Colts +3 Game Best bet of the day #2
PICK: OVER 23.5 1H
***Sunday night game will be added later****
