Randall the Handle
THE BEST
Jaguars (2-5) at Chiefs (5-2)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 7½
Not eager to endorse the Chiefs in this price range but happy to fade these useless Jaguars as they continue to falter week in and week out. No seat is hotter than Gus Bradley’s at the moment, however not much figures to change as there are no valid excuses for Jacksonville’s poor play other than incompetence. Kansas City is on a three-game win streak, two of those contests coming on the road. While KC has significant injuries on offence, its defence has managed to stop Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck on current run so slowing down inadequate Blake Bortles shouldn’t be much of a challenge. KC can ill afford to look past a visitor such as this one as its decent 5-2 mark still has them sitting third in competitive AFC West. The Jags have just two wins in past 19 road games and there’s little evidence of that changing.
TAKING: CHIEFS –7½
Eagles (4-3) at Giants (4-3)
LINE: NY GIANTS by 2½
Very comfortable taking points with defensively sound Eagles, especially against erratic division foe such as these Giants. Philadelphia is not only 3-1 versus spread when receiving points this season but are also 3-1 straight up in same games. The only blemish was an unjust one when Dallas scored a major in overtime last week, the Eagles +4 but losing by six. The Giants may be feeling a false sense of security after being off for two weeks after defeating the Rams over in England. That game saw Los Angeles QB Case Keenum at his unreliable best with four interceptions but the G-Men only able to manage a 17-10 triumph despite all of LA’s miscues. These two know each other all too well as the visitor has fared well in series, able to cover in 15 of the previous 22 encounters. We prefer the points offered, complemented by the better defensive squad.
TAKING: EAGLES +2½
Cowboys (6-1) at Browns (0-8)
LINE: DALLAS by 7
Fair or not, Dak Prescott continues to audition for his job despite the impressive start to what appears to be a promising career. There isn’t a better opponent to showcase your skills against than these Browns. Cleveland has displayed some grit in this downtrodden season but as we pass the half way mark, its young, inexperienced defence is worn out after allowing 30+ points in five of its past six games, including 24 in a second-half collapse when hosting the Jets last week. The Cowboys have not lost since opening week, including a 3-0 road record both straight up and against the spread. The ’Boys like being on this roll. It makes Jerry Jones happy. They’ll continue to push. They have little standing in the way as Cleveland has yet to win. Dallas’ fourth-ranked offence should steamroll over a Browns defence that allows 29.8 points and 421.5 yards per game.
TAKING: COWBOYS –7
THE REST
Jets (3-5) at Dolphins (3-4)
LINE: MIAMI by 3½
The Jets have won the past three meetings between these clubs by 18, 13 and 13 respectively. Don’t try to tell us that Miami is so much better now and that the Jets are so much worse. The Jets were saddled with a very difficult schedule to start the year and it ran true to form as this New York group were 1-5 before facing and defeating a pair that were more its speed, Baltimore and Cleveland. While Miami has corrected some things after an awful start, most notably its running game which has been ignited by Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins belong with the latter group more than with the first bunch. While we understand the Fins being favoured, we’re certainly not comfortable with them in that role. Fish have been chalk twice this season, failing to cover in both when requiring overtime against Cleveland and losing straight up to Titans. Little suggests a Miami cover here.
TAKING: JETS +3½
Saints (3-4) at 49ers (1-6)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 4½
We know how defence lawyers feel when having to defend an accused who they feel is guilty. Making a case for the 49ers against the offensively dangerous Saints is comparable. San Fran’s bright spots are few, it’s quarterback situation horrendous and the team’s overall stats laughable. But what keeps bobbing to the surface in these situations is the pointspread. Sitting at New Orleans -3½ since openers, very few are backing the home team while an overwhelming majority are flocking to the windows to back the Saints. Despite such activity, the line hasn’t moved and that’s usually a warning sign. The Saints come off a big win over Seahawks and host champion Broncos next week. Flat spot? New Orleans also best when taking points (5-0 ATS) but losing straight up both times favoured this season. Five of San Francisco’s previous wins have come at home and they’ve had a week off to repair some issues. We rest our case.
TAKING: 49ERS +4½
Panthers (2-5) at Rams (3-4)
LINE: CAROLINA by 3
Playing a team travelling east off four days rest is a whole lot different than flying west through three time zones to take on a rested host coming off its bye. That’s the unfortunate situation the Panthers find themselves in and to make matters worse, it is required that you spot some points during this difficult excursion. In three prior attempts at giving away road points, the Super Bowl runner ups have failed miserably, dropping all three games straight up. The Rams have typically done well after their rest compiling a 7-2 ATS in previous nine games following a bye week. Carolina’s 30th-ranked pass defence has become a target for opposing teams and even with L.A.’s anemic aerial game, the opportunity to stretch the field should benefit the Rams’ ground game. It’s easy to get lulled into the Panthers here but they don’t regain credibility off that favourable situation versus the Cardinals last week.
TAKING: RAMS +3
Colts (3-5) at Packers (4-3)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 7
No need to overthink this one. The Colts aren’t suddenly going to have a drastic improvement. Maybe their quarterback can play but he too appears out of sorts these days, perhaps from frustration from lack of talent around him. Now Andrew Luck must take to the road for the third time in four weeks and to the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field. Green Bay has lost only one game here this season, that one to high-flying Cowboys. The other three victories have come by an average of 10 points. It’s also the Packers last home game before heading to the road for next three weeks. In hot pursuit of Minnesota and with the passing game resuscitating, a long afternoon could be in store for this nimble visitor. Indy’s secondary is abysmal, ranking 31st in the league and that’s without facing any notable passers with the exception of Philip Rivers. Blowout wouldn’t surprise.
TAKING: PACKERS –7
Broncos (6-2) at Raiders (6-2)
LINE: Even
Classic offence versus defence matchup. Defence usually wins but we’re going to buck that trend here as Raiders are on fire, returning home after two road victories in Florida. While we respect Denver’s outstanding D, we have to believe that a red-hot Derek Carr can find enough points to secure a win as Denver’s offence may not be able to counter. Obviously, Oakland’s defence is a concern but knowing this opponent the way they do and with first place of the AFC West at stake, a tight contest could ensue. Looking back at last year’s meetings would support such a claim as the teams split wins in each other’s backyard by scores of 16-10 and 15-12 respectively. Let’s be reminded that much of Raiders poor defensive stats were accumulated early when facing Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Against four lesser offences, Oakland allowing average of just 19 points per game. Slight nod goes to revved up home side.
TAKING: RAIDERS Even
Steelers (4-3) at Ravens (3-4)
No Line: Status of Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger unknown.