Cajun-Sports NFL Executive- Sunday
NFL: 50-28 ATS (+6900) TSM
Time / Date: 1:00PM EST / Sunday November 30 (FOX) (DirecTV707)
Game: New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Line Origin: BetCris @ 1:15 EST November 29
Weather: Temp 44, Showers 40%
Grade / Prediction: 5* New York Giants -3.5
Analysis:
The World Champions hit the road again this week as they head to DC to face the Washington Redskins. We used the Giants as our 5* NFC Game of the Week last week as they were on the road in Arizona and defeated the Cardinals 37 to 29 as a 3-point road favorite.
The Giants defense continues to make their opponents offense one-dimensional and they are much more physical at the point of attack. In the first meeting between these two in New York the Giants “D” held Skins RB Clinton Portis to 84 yards on 23 carries and the Skins to a total of only 209 yards of offense on the day. The G-Men won that contest 16 to 7 as a 4.5 point home favorite but the score did not reflect the domination by this Giants team.
Has Washington all of the sudden become some offensive juggernaut or is this team primarily the same one that played in the first week of the season against the Giants? We believe they understand the new system and of course their QB Jason Campbell is more familiar with the system but it has not translated into wins on the field.
These teams have faced seven common opponents this season with New York going 6-1 SU and ATS with a 380 to 278 yardage edge and they averaged defeating those opponents by a score of 33 to 20. The Skins went 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS with a 331 to 264 yardage edge but the average score of those games was 18 to 18. The Giants have a huge advantage with a deep backfield that outrushed those common opponents 189 yards rushing to 89 yards rushing per game with an average of 5.4 to 3.9 yards per carry.
The Giants have won 14 of the past 15 games on the road including the playoffs. QB Eli Manning is 24-5 SU in his last 29 starts. He is aiming for his fifth win in a row over an NFC East opponent and fourth win in five tries over this Redskins team.
Key Angles: The Giants are 21-3 ATS when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 19-1 ATS when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Giants are 14-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 7-0 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Redskins are 6-23-1 ATS at home the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Redskins are 5-18 ATS at home after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Redskins are 8-17 ATS after a straight up win on the road. The Redskins are 3-12-1 ATS the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 30-8-1 ATS as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent. NFL teams are 29-15-2 ATS on the road when facing a team they beat in their first match-up. NFL teams are 20-6-1 ATS as a road favorite when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record. NFL teams are 14-31-1 ATS at home when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL teams are 8-23 ATS at home the week after on the road as a favorite in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 8-30-1 ATS as a home dog versus a divisional opponent. NFL teams are 6-20-1 ATS as a home dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL teams are 5-21-1 ATS as a home dog when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks.
Our Technical Situational Report has the Giants in a positive situation that tells us to Play ON teams with an above average Offense Rating and a SU Win Percentage equal to or more than >600 with a KORF of more than 22 yards per kickoff. This technical situation is 144-50 ATS. The Redskins are in a negative situation this week that tells us to Play AGAINST teams with a LC%F more than 14 yards and CW% of more than 40% facing an opponent that has a first quarter rush average against >50. This technical situation has a record of 110-39 ATS and is 12-4 ATS this season.
Finally we will back the better team here as they continue to roll towards a possible second championship and by the way they are 14-2 ATS their last 16 on the highway!
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* New York Giants-3.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 30 (FOX) (DirecTV 710)
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:48 EST November 29
Weather: Temp 73, Showers 50%
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Analysis:
The Boys from the Big Easy head further south to Cigar City to face the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. The Saints check in with a 6-5 SU record while the host is 8-3 SU on the season.
The Bucs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season with a 344 to 217 yard advantage and an average score of 24 to 11. This will be the Saints fifth road game in seven weeks and they are only 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season with their only SU win coming against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Saints are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS when facing teams with a .500 or better record this season if we take out Week One. They averaged losing in those contests 22 to 31. While the Bucs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS versus winning teams this year with a 21 to 14 average score.
The difference in today’s matchup is Tampa is much more physical upfront and especially this late in the season it appears that the Saints are more of a finesse team on defense.
The Saints are coming off a win over the Packers but it was on Monday night so they have to travel after a short week and they are suffering from some key injuries which will hurt their rushing attack. Without a substantial rushing game their ability to pass against this Bucs “D” while become much more difficult.
Key Angles: The Saints are 0-10 ATS as a dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up win. The Saints are 2-13-1 ATS as a dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Saints are 2-14 ATS as a dog versus any team with more wins. after a straight up win at home. The Saints are 2-12 ATS as a road dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up win at home. The Buccaneers are 21-8-2 ATS at home after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS at home when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 16-4 ATS at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 11-22-1 ATS as a dog the week after scoring 34+ points at home. NFL teams are 18-36 ATS the week after scoring 34+ points at home. Play Against NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games, 33-12 ATS. Play On NFL teams revenging a same season loss against opponent, a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75% playing a team with a winning record, 56-21 ATS.
Finally we note that NFC South home teams are 20-2 SU and 16-5-1 ATS this season so it makes our choice of the host that much easier. Lay the short price with the Bucs as they capture another home SU and ATS win.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday November 30 (CBS) (DirecTV 713)
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:22 EST November 29
Weather: Temp 43, Cloudy
Grade / Prediction: 4* New England Patriots -1
Analysis:
The New England Patriots will play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon in New England. Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU on the year while the Brady-Less Patriots check in with a 7-4 SU record.
Many believed when Brady went down in the first quarter of the first game of the season that it was over for the Patriots this year. It even looked that way a few weeks into the season but after making history the last two weeks with Cassell at quarterback it appears that Belichick has worked his magic once again.
The Patriots offense topped 500 plus yards in back-to-back weeks for the first time in their history and Cassell passed for over 400 yards in each also a record. Last week Moss had 125 yards receiving for 15.6 yards per catch. Wes Welker had 120 yards receiving for a 15.0 yards per catch average as Cassell passed for 415 yards, 70% completion percentage and a 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio.
Pittsburgh has once again been strong on the defensive side of the ball but they are still struggling on offense. They have only scored an average of 19 points per game over the last five weeks and their ATS record reflects those struggles checking in with a 1-4 ATS mark in the ledger over that span.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows the Patriots with a 4.9 point advantage in today’s matchup. Our Player Performance Ratings Index also signals a New England win with the Patriots having a 5.2 point advantage over the Steelers.
Key Angles: The Steelers are 5-21-1 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Steelers are 1-8 ATS after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Steelers are 7-16 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Steelers are 5-15 ATS as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Steelers are 5-14-1 ATS within 3 of pick after playing as a favorite. The Patriots are 11-0-3 ATS at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 16-2-1 ATS since 2000 when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 19-6-1 ATS when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Patriots are 12-4 ATS at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Patriots are 17-5-1 ATS as a favorite when they covered by 10+ points last week.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 51-77-3 ATS as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. NFL teams are 10-28-1 ATS as a road dog after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks. NFL teams are 66-40-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Technical Situational Report shows the Patriots are in a positive situation that says to Play ON teams with a second down rush against advantage of >0.75 that allowed their last opponent to score three or more points more than their season average. This situation has a record of 156-65 ATS. Play AGAINST teams with a pass defense rating advantage >1 and an above average pass offense rating last season. This situations record is 149-63 ATS.
We will back the Patriots here as they continue their solid play and get the SU win and cover over the Steelers on Sunday afternoon.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New England Patriots -1
Time / Date: 8:15 PM EST / Sunday November 30 (NBC)
Game: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:32 EST November 27
Weather: Metrodome
Grade / Prediction: 4* Chicago / Minnesota Over 41.5
Analysis:
The NFL’s Featured Game on Sunday night has the hometown Minnesota Vikings facing the Second City Bears on NBC. First Place in the NFC North is at stake in this contest and the Vikings certainly need the win because of a potential tiebreaker situation with the Bears having already won the first meeting of the season.
Minnesota fell 48-41 in Chicago on Oct. 19, but has since won three of their last four games. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte attempted 40 passes in that game, completing 25 for 298 yards, but had a season-high four interceptions.
Frerotte has averaged 21.5 pass attempts in four games since that defeat while the Vikings have averaged 34.0 rushes.
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has run for an average of 124.0 yards in that span, compared to 84.2 during Frerotte's first five starts as the veteran quarterback averaged 36.0 passes.
The Chicago Bears have a solid running back of their own in rookie Matt Forte who is fifth in the league with 909 yards rushing on the season. A 1,000 yard season is a fore gone conclusion at this point for the rookie as he continues to excel in the Bears backfield.
In last Sunday's 27-3 win in St. Louis, Forte ran for a career-high 132 yards and his first two-touchdown day, helping the Bears rebound from their most lopsided loss of the season at Green Bay with their easiest win. The Bears had 201 rushing yards, their first 200-yard game since Oct. 5, 2003, against Oakland.
Chicago averages 28.0 points per game and 326.5 yards of total offense when playing a division opponent this season. Their defense allows 27.0 points per game and 346 yards of offense against a division foe. While Minnesota checks in with 25.0 points per game and 386.7 yards of offense when facing a division opponent and their defense allows 27.2 points per game and 260 yards of total offense.
The fact this game is being played in a dome triggers a solid tech set that says to Play OVER in dome games from Week 9 on and this situation has posted a record of 28-6-1 Over the last two seasons! We also note that if the home team is favored by 6 or less points the “Over” is a perfect 11-0 the last two years.
Play OVER on any NFL team when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road as a TD+ favorite, 20-3-1 Over. Play OVER on any NFL team as a road dog versus any team with the same record after a straight up win on the road, 19-4-1 Over. Play OVER on any NFL team at home when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week on the road, 41-18-1 Over.
With strong fundamental and technical support this game qualifies as our NFL Total Play of the Week for Week 13 of the season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Chicago / Minnesota OVER 41.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday November 30
Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:08 EST November 27
Weather: Temp Mid-30’s, Partly Cloudy
Grade / Prediction: 3* San Francisco / Buffalo Over 42.5
Analysis:
Ralph Wilson Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s matchup between the host Buffalo Bills and the visiting 49ers from San Francisco.
The Bills halted a four-game losing skid with their best offensive performance of the season as the defeated the Kansas City Chiefs last week 54 to 31. The Bills offense is looking forward to getting on the field with the 49ers porous defense.
Trent Edwards was at the forefront of the Bills' breakout game, going 24-of-32 for 273 yards with a pair of passing and rushing touchdowns to produce a career-best 121.0 quarterback rating.
Edwards' was struggling with his confidence during Buffalo's skid, throwing eight interceptions, and losing two fumbles and giving up a safety. During the Bills' 5-1 start, Edwards threw only two interceptions.
Against the Chiefs, Edwards was able to re-establish a connection with top receiver Lee Evans, who had five catches for 110 yards a week after being shut out in a 29-27 loss to Cleveland. Evans, one of the league's top deep threats, was held to six catches for 63yards in his previous three games. Evans is averaging 19.3 yards per reception with a long of 87.
San Francisco couldn't stop Terrell Owens from coming up with big plays in a 35-22 loss to Dallas last Sunday. Owens had seven catches for 213 yards, including a 75-yard score.
It was the sixth time that the 49ers have given up 30 points or more this season, and the third loss in four games under interim coach Mike Singletary. They're ranked 29th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 28.2 points a contest.
San Francisco's pass rush did little to pressure Tony Romo last week. The 49ers are 24th in the league with 19 sacks; Buffalo hasn't allowed one in its last two games.
San Francisco CB Nate Clements who spent his first six seasons with the Bills before signing an $80 million free-agent deal with the 49ers received much of the blame from Singletary for San Francisco's inability to cover Owens; it's unlikely he'll be benched any time soon. That’s good news for Trent Edwards and Lee Evans as they look to duplicate the Cowboys success with the passing game against this 49er secondary.
San Francisco’s offense averages 22.0 points per game with 304.0 yards of total offense when playing on turf this season. Their defense is allowing an enormous 35.0 points per game and 408.0 yards of offense. Buffalo’s offense has gotten back on track of late they are averaging 30.3 points per game with 315.3 yards of offense over their last three games. Their defense hasn’t played as well they are allowing 26.7 points per game and 389.7 yards of total offense the last three contests.
We expect these trends to continue on Sunday as Buffalo and San Francisco play like the teams that they are at this point in the season. We expect the Bills to score in the low 30’s and for San Francisco to put up at least 20 points on Sunday.
The 49ers are 16-6-1 Over on the road the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. We also know that NFL Teams are 51-28-3 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing.
The Bills are 11-0 Over as a favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week and the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Bills are 9-0 Over as a home favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week and the line was within 3 of pick'em. We also note that NFL Teams are 41-18-1 Over at home when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week on the road. The Bills are 12-1 Over after a straight up win on the road.
With significant fundamental support along with very strong technical support we will make the selection of the “Over” in this contest our NFL Inter-Conference Total Play of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* San Francisco / Buffalo Over 42.5
<!-- / message -->
