4* #213 MIAMI/BUFFALO Under
So often the best situations at this stage of the season are those that the oddsmakers and markets simply miss because there is seemingly no reason for them to take a second look. Buffalo’s defensive performance at Jacksonville last week was just such a setting, and we can get ahead of the curve at the value being offered this week.Perry Fewell stepped up to the challenge when forced into the interim coaching position last week; despite the fact that he has almost no chance to be a candidate for the full-time spot he knows a lot of eyes are following in terms of jobs opening up at other places (and perhaps to even stay on as DC here). And while Fewell’s defense has been a disaster this year, so much of that was because of injuries, including such key cogs as Paul Posluszny, Aaron Schobel, Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee. Now the missing pieces are coming back, and what he is doing with them not only mattered at Jacksonville, but can make a big difference this week. With Whitner back to health they spent a lot of the game in sets using three safeties, and what had been one of the weakest rush defenses in the N.F.L. held Maurice Jones-Drew to 66 yards on 25 carries. He did not have a run longer than 10 yards, and the 2.6 per carry was about half of the 5.1 per attempt he was averaging coming in.The Bills played hard on defense for Fewell, and played well, with the safeties leading the way. And the positive attitude is carrying forward. This, from George Wilson - "It does wonders for us because we can disguise our man and zone pressures whenever we're blitzing. Our safeties are so interchangeable that we can matchup with just about any skill guy that's out there and not feel like we're in a mismatch. That gives our coordinator great confidence to be able to dial up those pressures or man coverages and try to confuse the opposing offenses." And from Jairus Byrd - "I'm excited about how they are using us. We have guys who have shown the ability to make plays, so the coaches are looking for ways to get us on the field together. We had some success with it in Jacksonville, so we look forward to seeing how we can expand that."Expect to see a lot of those sets this week, and we believe it will be the ideal counter to those Dolphin Wildcat schemes. With Chad Henne lacking experience, and with the Miami WR’s as mediocre of a group as there is, there just are not a lot of other options for Tony Sparano. But Sparano can be content go just plug away and play for field position anyway, largely because his own defense can keep the Bills under control. A Buffalo OL that was going to be a work in progress with so many new faces this season has instead become a train wreck. When the game ended last week there were only five healthy players left in that unit, and there is absolutely no chemistry. They will be starting their seventh different combination this week, with Geoff Hangartner the only player to appear in all 10 games. Three players have started at LT and four at RT, none of them very good, and that means huge headaches on the outside against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. The Dolphins already have 26 sacks, and can make life even more miserable for Ryan Fitzpatrick than it already is most games.
4* #206 HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS
The Colt SU run is reaching some historic levels at the current 19-0. But there is a different kind of history that they just made that tells us much more about where they really are – they just became the first team in N.F.L. history to win four consecutive games by a combined total of 10 points. Six of their 10 wins have come by four points or less, and if the season ended today only two of those 10 opponents would be in the playoffs. This line is based on that dramatic SU win streak, but the true realities tells us that we have a pick’em game here, and we get a chance to take points with a home team that can exploit the biggest Indy weaknesses.Is calling this pick’em a stretch? Hardly. The Colts are +32 first downs and +727 yards this season. The Texans are +18 and +380 in the same categories. Adjust for the home field, and the fact that Houston has played the slightly tougher schedule, and the counts find you in the pick’em range. It is partly the brilliance of Peyton Manning that has had the Colts pull out so many close games, but also some extreme fortune as well. If Kris Brown makes that late FG three weeks ago, these two would have gone to O.T. at Lucas Oil Stadium. If Kevin Faulk does not have a slight bobble two weeks ago the Patriots win on that same field. Last week all John Flacco had to do was make a better read on an awful late-game interception, and the Ravens are in a prime position to win as well.The Colts have not run the ball well, netting just 3.8 per carry and producing 226 fewer yards than their opponents. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 141 of the 272 pass receptions, and because the other options are so limited we believe the second time around in division play will be a much tougher challenge for Manning and the passing attack, as the defenses get a chance to make significant adjustments. And while the defense still rates #1 in the league for fewest points allowed, the absence of Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Tyjuan Hagler for the remainder of the season, and Kelvin Hayden, Aaron Francisco and Keyunta Dawson this week, makes them vulnerable against this class of passing attack on the road. Manning’s 8.17 per pass attempt, and 21 TD passes vs. nine INT’s is special, but note that Matt Schaub checks in at 8.10, 19 and nine in the same categories. Now that James Casey is healthy again they can mitigate the loss of Owen Daniels a bit, and they have a trio of rookie CB’s in Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers that they can line Andre Johnson up against. So just where are the advantages that a road favorite in this pointspread range is supposed to have?The Texans bring no intimidation at all in this matchup. They had the Colts beaten on this field LY until those late Sage Rosenfels turnovers (it was 27-10 with less than 5:00 remaining), and played them dead even on the road earlier. Because of that they bring the confidence level to attack, which is the way to get after this opponent right now, and that aggressiveness leads to an outright win that really is not much of an upset.
5* #216 TENNESSEE/ARIZONA Under
It should not come as any surprise that we land on this one – after cashing a 6* Under ticket with the Titans on Monday night, and then focusing on how misleading their defensive numbers are in this week’s N.F.L. edition of ”Verities & Balderdash”, we can easily stay in play as the markets deal the wrong line range.Yes, you will see awful statistics for the Tennessee pass defense. That is what happens when you lose three key contributors from the secondary at the same time, and are forced to start a pair of rookie CB’s in back-to-back games against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who lit them up for 90 points, 735 yards through the air, and nine TD passes. But now Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller and Nick Harper are all healthy again, while Rod Hood has had several weeks to learn the Titan schemes and is also now a prime part of the rotation. Instead of being near the bottom of the league this is a capable defense, and one playing with a lot of confidence and enthusiasm in the current 4-0 SU run.But the markets lag behind. When was the last time we saw a 46 dealt as a Total on this field? You have to go back 21 games, to December of 2006 against the Colts. Now it is not just a case of the Tennessee defense putting better players on the field, but that the game flows also slow down, as they get back to playing Jeff Fisher football again. And this is not a Total for a Fisher game.Arizona also contributes for our purposes this week. The Cardinal defense has been outstanding on the road this season, allowing only 14.2 points per game (that includes a couple of garbage-time TD’s when they were leading 34-7 in the fourth quarter at Chicago), and their depth and quickness up front make a big difference in slowing Chris Johnson down, and keeping Vince Young in the pocket. Meanwhile the offensive focus continues to be more on working underneath than stretching the field (neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Anquan Boldin are averaging more than 12.0 per catch), and in recent weeks we have see a lot more two TE looks, which not only helps the running game, but brings better protection on the edges for a fragile Kurt Warner. It all adds to bring a much different flow than what the oddsmakers have called for, and we take advantage.
