David Malinsky
4* CAROLINA over CLEVELAND
It is not often that we find a 3-7 team favored in this range, especially when the prime reason for that team struggling so badly to win is an offense that lacks the ability to make big plays. Or any plays at all for that matter – the Browns have only scored 18 offensive TD’s all season. And instead of that offensive being a developing unit, they are almost back to square one with Jake Delhomme starting at QB, the Delhomme of a dismal 48.2 passer rating after his early work, including four INT’s vs. only one TD pass. He last saw action on week #5 vs. Atlanta, and lacks any kind of real chemistry with this WR corps. Not that it is easy to build a chemistry with that group anyway, with Chansi Stuckey the only wideout that has at least 20 catches, and his 31 have only generated 8.8 per reception.
The bottom line is that we have a punchless favorite that has to work hard enough to win games, much less gat a margin, and there may not have been a better sign of their true state of affairs than last week’s 24-20 loss at Jacksonville. The Browns were +5 in TO’s in that game, and lost outright. It is truly difficult to do that – since the 1970 NFL merger, teams with a +5 TO differential have gone 363-16-2, a 95.7 percent winning clip. To be in that bottom 4.3 percent is not illustrious company.
If a team that brings as little as Cleveland is favored by this amount, the markets are making a major statement about the Panthers. But this is a team that has continued to play solid defense with little offensive support, and can be most dangerous in this setting – one of the prime reasons why the underdogs work so well in bad vs. bad settings late in the season is that a downtrodden team senses a chance to get a win when they look at the films. After facing teams that are a combined 22-9 in their last three games, and with six of their first 10 games coming against teams that have seven wins or more, they prepare for this one knowing that is within reach, seeing that they are not physically overmatched anywhere. And there are tools – while Jimmy Clausen is a work in progress at QB, he has some weapons to use today in Steve Smith, who faces a secondary that will likely be without Eric Wright, and Jonathan Stewart also returns at RB, joining Mike Goodson, who is off of back-to-back games of 100+ rushing yards.
Neither team is going after tempo here – both want to run first and play field position. That pace also helps to keep the underdog in the game, and we expect Carolina to be alive to the final possession to win outright.
4* CAROLINA over CLEVELAND
It is not often that we find a 3-7 team favored in this range, especially when the prime reason for that team struggling so badly to win is an offense that lacks the ability to make big plays. Or any plays at all for that matter – the Browns have only scored 18 offensive TD’s all season. And instead of that offensive being a developing unit, they are almost back to square one with Jake Delhomme starting at QB, the Delhomme of a dismal 48.2 passer rating after his early work, including four INT’s vs. only one TD pass. He last saw action on week #5 vs. Atlanta, and lacks any kind of real chemistry with this WR corps. Not that it is easy to build a chemistry with that group anyway, with Chansi Stuckey the only wideout that has at least 20 catches, and his 31 have only generated 8.8 per reception.
The bottom line is that we have a punchless favorite that has to work hard enough to win games, much less gat a margin, and there may not have been a better sign of their true state of affairs than last week’s 24-20 loss at Jacksonville. The Browns were +5 in TO’s in that game, and lost outright. It is truly difficult to do that – since the 1970 NFL merger, teams with a +5 TO differential have gone 363-16-2, a 95.7 percent winning clip. To be in that bottom 4.3 percent is not illustrious company.
If a team that brings as little as Cleveland is favored by this amount, the markets are making a major statement about the Panthers. But this is a team that has continued to play solid defense with little offensive support, and can be most dangerous in this setting – one of the prime reasons why the underdogs work so well in bad vs. bad settings late in the season is that a downtrodden team senses a chance to get a win when they look at the films. After facing teams that are a combined 22-9 in their last three games, and with six of their first 10 games coming against teams that have seven wins or more, they prepare for this one knowing that is within reach, seeing that they are not physically overmatched anywhere. And there are tools – while Jimmy Clausen is a work in progress at QB, he has some weapons to use today in Steve Smith, who faces a secondary that will likely be without Eric Wright, and Jonathan Stewart also returns at RB, joining Mike Goodson, who is off of back-to-back games of 100+ rushing yards.
Neither team is going after tempo here – both want to run first and play field position. That pace also helps to keep the underdog in the game, and we expect Carolina to be alive to the final possession to win outright.
Joseph D'Amico
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Green Bay Packers +2
This is an important game with potential home field playoff implications. Atlanta has the best record in the NFC at 8-2. Today, they play a 7-3 Green Bay team that is sharing the top spot in the NFC NORTH with 7-3 Chicago. The Falcons are in a tough spot here. They need to keep their focus on the Packers. They can not afford to be distracted worrying about their following game against NFC SOUTH rival the 7-3 Tampa Bay squad. With just 6 games remaining (all against NFC foes) they need every conference and every division win they can get. Atlanta is battling it out with another NFC SOUTH rival in the 8-3 New Orleans Saints. Green Bay has won and covered 4 straight, including LWs 31-3 beating over NFC NORTH rival, Minnesota. In those 4 straight wins, the Packers outscored opponents 113-34, including a 40-3 edge in 2 road games over the Jets and the Vikings. QB Aaron Rodgers has tallied 2601 YP, a 64.1% completion rate, 19 TDs, and just 9 INTs. Rodgers has 6 receivers with more than 20 receptions and has thrown TDs to 7 different players. People talk of the lack of running game, but GB is still averaging 100.5 YPG on the ground. The Falcons DE John Abraham missed last weeks game due to a groin injury and is listed as questionable. Despite their success thus far, the Falcons have not yet shown consistent efforts when facing the NFLs top-tier squads. This may have something to do with their inability when running the ball against a 3-4 defense. As was the case against Pitt, rushing for only 58 yards and against Baltimore when they rushed for a mere 60 yds. QB Matt Ryan has had success in the Georgia Dome, going 17-1 SU when starting at home. The Falcon offense scores 25.6 PPG on 242.7 YPG in the air. Atlanta only passes with success when they first establish the run. RB Michael Turner is solid. However Green Bays stop unit ranks #2 in football, yielding a mere 14.6 PPG. The road team is 5-0 ATS their L5 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS their L28 home games vs. teams with a winning road record. The Packers are 18-7-1 ATS their L26 as a ‘dog, 7-3 ATS their L10 games played on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS their L5 games played in November. Take Green Bay.
ALSO:
3* Steelers -6
2* Titans +6
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Green Bay Packers +2
This is an important game with potential home field playoff implications. Atlanta has the best record in the NFC at 8-2. Today, they play a 7-3 Green Bay team that is sharing the top spot in the NFC NORTH with 7-3 Chicago. The Falcons are in a tough spot here. They need to keep their focus on the Packers. They can not afford to be distracted worrying about their following game against NFC SOUTH rival the 7-3 Tampa Bay squad. With just 6 games remaining (all against NFC foes) they need every conference and every division win they can get. Atlanta is battling it out with another NFC SOUTH rival in the 8-3 New Orleans Saints. Green Bay has won and covered 4 straight, including LWs 31-3 beating over NFC NORTH rival, Minnesota. In those 4 straight wins, the Packers outscored opponents 113-34, including a 40-3 edge in 2 road games over the Jets and the Vikings. QB Aaron Rodgers has tallied 2601 YP, a 64.1% completion rate, 19 TDs, and just 9 INTs. Rodgers has 6 receivers with more than 20 receptions and has thrown TDs to 7 different players. People talk of the lack of running game, but GB is still averaging 100.5 YPG on the ground. The Falcons DE John Abraham missed last weeks game due to a groin injury and is listed as questionable. Despite their success thus far, the Falcons have not yet shown consistent efforts when facing the NFLs top-tier squads. This may have something to do with their inability when running the ball against a 3-4 defense. As was the case against Pitt, rushing for only 58 yards and against Baltimore when they rushed for a mere 60 yds. QB Matt Ryan has had success in the Georgia Dome, going 17-1 SU when starting at home. The Falcon offense scores 25.6 PPG on 242.7 YPG in the air. Atlanta only passes with success when they first establish the run. RB Michael Turner is solid. However Green Bays stop unit ranks #2 in football, yielding a mere 14.6 PPG. The road team is 5-0 ATS their L5 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS their L28 home games vs. teams with a winning road record. The Packers are 18-7-1 ATS their L26 as a ‘dog, 7-3 ATS their L10 games played on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS their L5 games played in November. Take Green Bay.
ALSO:
3* Steelers -6
2* Titans +6
The Duke's Sports
Chicago (+3') for 2.5 Units
Eagles/Bears 4:15: Eagles are looking like World beaters now with QB Vick playing at a stratospheric level with an explosive supporting cast of skill players surrounding him. However, if there is a defense made to counter the Eagles' speed, it is Chicago's. They're physical and fast and we'll look for them to limit the Eagles' production here. On the other hand, the Bears' QB Cutler is having trouble with 5 to 7 step drop passes. He may have to "check down" or go with screens and quick passes to his dependable targets to counter the blitz happy Eagles' defense. The Bears were beaten by the Eagles in Chicago last year 24-20 which sets up a nice play on the Bears here: Lovie Smith is a sweet 9-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game. And in November, the Bears are 11-0 ATS with revenge against a non division opponent off a SU win. The dog in this series has covered 6 of 8 times. With the Bears extra prep time to stew in a revenge mode, we'll grab the points here.
Chicago (+3') for 2.5 Units
Eagles/Bears 4:15: Eagles are looking like World beaters now with QB Vick playing at a stratospheric level with an explosive supporting cast of skill players surrounding him. However, if there is a defense made to counter the Eagles' speed, it is Chicago's. They're physical and fast and we'll look for them to limit the Eagles' production here. On the other hand, the Bears' QB Cutler is having trouble with 5 to 7 step drop passes. He may have to "check down" or go with screens and quick passes to his dependable targets to counter the blitz happy Eagles' defense. The Bears were beaten by the Eagles in Chicago last year 24-20 which sets up a nice play on the Bears here: Lovie Smith is a sweet 9-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game. And in November, the Bears are 11-0 ATS with revenge against a non division opponent off a SU win. The dog in this series has covered 6 of 8 times. With the Bears extra prep time to stew in a revenge mode, we'll grab the points here.
Jimmy "The Iceman" Robinson
20 Dimes:
Carolina +10.5 Over Cleveland
Tampa Bay/Baltimore Under 42.5
San Diego +3 Over Indianapolis
Philadelphia -3 Over Chicago
Washington +2 Over Minnesota
50 Dimes:
Pittsburgh -6.5 Over Buffalo
10 Dimes:
Michigan St. -25.5 Over Tennessee Tech
Florida +4 Over FSU
20 Dimes:
Carolina +10.5 Over Cleveland
Tampa Bay/Baltimore Under 42.5
San Diego +3 Over Indianapolis
Philadelphia -3 Over Chicago
Washington +2 Over Minnesota
50 Dimes:
Pittsburgh -6.5 Over Buffalo
10 Dimes:
Michigan St. -25.5 Over Tennessee Tech
Florida +4 Over FSU
