CRAIG DAVIS
Biggest nfl release of my career
first ever
100 dime
nfl underdog
game of the year
No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 Dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.
Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.
Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.
The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.
Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.
If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.
Biggest nfl release of my career
first ever
100 dime
nfl underdog
game of the year
No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 Dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.
Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.
Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.
The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.
Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.
If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.
