Reno rick
1:00pm - washington redskins +7 (3 unit)
1:00pm - houston texans +7 (3 unit)
4:05pm - atlanta falcons -2.5 (10 unit max play) buy the 1/2 point!
4:05pm - seattle seahawks +11.5 (3 unit)
4:05pm - seattle seahawks @ new orleans saints - over 44 (3unit)
4:15pm - new england -3 (7 unit) buy the full 1 point in this game!
8:00pm - philadelphia eagles -3 (3 unit)
1:00pm - washington redskins +7 (3 unit)
1:00pm - houston texans +7 (3 unit)
4:05pm - atlanta falcons -2.5 (10 unit max play) buy the 1/2 point!
4:05pm - seattle seahawks +11.5 (3 unit)
4:05pm - seattle seahawks @ new orleans saints - over 44 (3unit)
4:15pm - new england -3 (7 unit) buy the full 1 point in this game!
8:00pm - philadelphia eagles -3 (3 unit)
GINA
Sunday, November 21st 1:00 p.m. est.
Buffalo Bills (1-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7)
Paul Brown Stadium - Cincinnati, Ohio
Cincinnati has given up, while the Bills have fought hard. Go with Buffalo in a close battle. The Bills have lost their last three games by three points or less and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings versus the Bengals.
Buffalo Bills +5
Sunday, November 21st 1:00 p.m. est.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, North Carolina
Look for the rested Ravens to be in command of the hurting Panthers. Carolina will have third-stringer quarterback Brian St. Pierre at the controls of their lackluster offense. Go with the Ravens to wallop the sorry Panthers. Carolina is 1-8 in its last 9 games, 1-4 in its last 5 at home.
Baltimore Ravens -11
Sunday, November 21st 4:15 p.m. est.
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2)
Gillette Stadium - Foxborough, Massachusetts
The Colts and the Patriots are both struggling on defense, but Patriots’ Tom Brady and Colts’ Peyton Manning are always exciting rivals. The past five meetings have been decided by seven points or less with the Patriots winning 9 of the last 11 games at home against Indianapolis. The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Patriots, but just 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 in Foxborough. Go with the home team!
New England Patriots -4
Over - 50
Sunday, November 21st 1:00 p.m. est.
Buffalo Bills (1-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7)
Paul Brown Stadium - Cincinnati, Ohio
Cincinnati has given up, while the Bills have fought hard. Go with Buffalo in a close battle. The Bills have lost their last three games by three points or less and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings versus the Bengals.
Buffalo Bills +5
Sunday, November 21st 1:00 p.m. est.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, North Carolina
Look for the rested Ravens to be in command of the hurting Panthers. Carolina will have third-stringer quarterback Brian St. Pierre at the controls of their lackluster offense. Go with the Ravens to wallop the sorry Panthers. Carolina is 1-8 in its last 9 games, 1-4 in its last 5 at home.
Baltimore Ravens -11
Sunday, November 21st 4:15 p.m. est.
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2)
Gillette Stadium - Foxborough, Massachusetts
The Colts and the Patriots are both struggling on defense, but Patriots’ Tom Brady and Colts’ Peyton Manning are always exciting rivals. The past five meetings have been decided by seven points or less with the Patriots winning 9 of the last 11 games at home against Indianapolis. The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Patriots, but just 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 in Foxborough. Go with the home team!
New England Patriots -4
Over - 50
SR COMPUTER PICKS
Sunday, November 21, 2010
1:00 pm Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals -5½
1:00 pm Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys --6½
1:00 pm Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers -7
1:00 pm Houston Texans @ New York Jets New York Jets -7
1:00 pm Baltimore Ravens@ Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens -10
1:00 pm Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguar Jacksonville Jaguar -1½
1:00 pm Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans -7
1:00 pm Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs -8
1:00 pm Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers -3
4:05 pm Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams St. Louis Rams +3
4:05 pm Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints -11½ ***
4:05 pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½
4:15 pm Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Indianapolis Colts +3½
4:15 pm New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants +3
Monday, November 22, 2010
8:30 pm Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers San Diego Chargers -10
Sunday, November 21, 2010
1:00 pm Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals -5½
1:00 pm Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys --6½
1:00 pm Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers -7
1:00 pm Houston Texans @ New York Jets New York Jets -7
1:00 pm Baltimore Ravens@ Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens -10
1:00 pm Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguar Jacksonville Jaguar -1½
1:00 pm Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans -7
1:00 pm Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs -8
1:00 pm Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers -3
4:05 pm Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams St. Louis Rams +3
4:05 pm Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints -11½ ***
4:05 pm Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½
4:15 pm Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Indianapolis Colts +3½
4:15 pm New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants +3
Monday, November 22, 2010
8:30 pm Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers San Diego Chargers -10
DCI NCAA CBB
Season
Straight Up: 372-91 (.803)
ATS: 110-135 (.449)
ATS Vary Units: 538-536 (.501)
Over/Under: 102-97 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 201-215 (.483)
2K Sports Classic
Irvine Subregional at Irvine, CA
Louisiana Tech 72, UC IRVINE 67
Seattle 85, Navy 76
Toledo Subregional at Toledo, OH
College of Charleston 76, TOLEDO 59
Rhode Island 80, Uic 65
Charleston Classic
at Carolina First Arena, Charleston, SC
Coastal Carolina 72, Charlotte 70
East Carolina 68, USC Upstate 63
Wofford 68, George Mason 62
Championship
Georgetown 71, NC State 64
Chicago Invitational Challenge
at campus sites
PURDUE 78, Oakland 65
RICHMOND 79, Charleston Southern 55
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 77, Austin Peay 70
WRIGHT STATE 77, Southern 46
Global Sports Challenge
Round Robin at BancorpSouth Arena, Tupelo, MS
Memphis 74, Lsu 63
Global Sports Hoops Showcase
Round Robin at Auburn, AL
AUBURN 76, Middle Tennessee 72
Campbell 63, Samford 55
Global Sports Hy-Vee Challenge
Round Robin at Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
Iowa State 73, Creighton 67
Global Sports Invitational
Round Robin at campus sites
FLORIDA 77, Morehead State 67
IBN Sports Las Vegas Invitational
at campus sites
ARIZONA 78, Northern Colorado 67
OHIO 79, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 65
SANTA CLARA 63, Bethune-Cookman 55
Legends Classic
Ann Arbor Regional at Ann Arbor, MI
MICHIGAN 77, Gardner-Webb 53
Syracuse Regional at Syracuse, NY
SYRACUSE 79, William & Mary 55
Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Tipoff
at MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA
Bradley 69, Tcu 66
New Hampshire 71, Usc 67
Rider 80, Loyola Marymount 74
O'Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic
Oxford Subregional at Oxford, OH
MIAMI (OHIO) 61, Green Bay 60
San Diego State 73, Iupui 62
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
at Coliseo de Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR
Nebraska 70, Hofstra 68
Vanderbilt 75, North Carolina 73
Western Kentucky 77, Davidson 69
Championship
West Virginia 72, Minnesota 66
SMU Invitational
Round Robin at Dallas, TX
Portland State 75, UC Riverside 70
SMU 75, Lamar 65
South Padre Invitational
at campus sites
SAINT MARY'S 87, Mississippi Valley State 53
SOUTH FLORIDA 84, Georgia Southern 67
TEXAS TECH 86, Liberty 68
U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam
Championship Semifinals at UVI Sports & Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, USVI
Old Dominion vs. Clemson: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Xavier 85, Seton Hall 81
Non-Conference
Boise State 75, UC DAVIS 70
Illinois State 73, UALR 63
INDIANA 68, Evansville 62
LOYOLA (MD.) 68, Dartmouth 54
Miami (Fla.) 73, RUTGERS 69
MONTANA STATE 74, Cal Poly 70
OKLAHOMA STATE 78, New Hampshire 60
OREGON STATE 69, Texas Southern 50
SAN DIEGO 73, Cal State Fullerton 67
St. Bonaventure 70, BINGHAMTON 64
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 61, Howard 54
STANFORD 70, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51
STONY BROOK 71, Wagner 52
Virginia Tech 78, UNC GREENSBORO 64
Season
Straight Up: 372-91 (.803)
ATS: 110-135 (.449)
ATS Vary Units: 538-536 (.501)
Over/Under: 102-97 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 201-215 (.483)
2K Sports Classic
Irvine Subregional at Irvine, CA
Louisiana Tech 72, UC IRVINE 67
Seattle 85, Navy 76
Toledo Subregional at Toledo, OH
College of Charleston 76, TOLEDO 59
Rhode Island 80, Uic 65
Charleston Classic
at Carolina First Arena, Charleston, SC
Coastal Carolina 72, Charlotte 70
East Carolina 68, USC Upstate 63
Wofford 68, George Mason 62
Championship
Georgetown 71, NC State 64
Chicago Invitational Challenge
at campus sites
PURDUE 78, Oakland 65
RICHMOND 79, Charleston Southern 55
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 77, Austin Peay 70
WRIGHT STATE 77, Southern 46
Global Sports Challenge
Round Robin at BancorpSouth Arena, Tupelo, MS
Memphis 74, Lsu 63
Global Sports Hoops Showcase
Round Robin at Auburn, AL
AUBURN 76, Middle Tennessee 72
Campbell 63, Samford 55
Global Sports Hy-Vee Challenge
Round Robin at Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
Iowa State 73, Creighton 67
Global Sports Invitational
Round Robin at campus sites
FLORIDA 77, Morehead State 67
IBN Sports Las Vegas Invitational
at campus sites
ARIZONA 78, Northern Colorado 67
OHIO 79, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 65
SANTA CLARA 63, Bethune-Cookman 55
Legends Classic
Ann Arbor Regional at Ann Arbor, MI
MICHIGAN 77, Gardner-Webb 53
Syracuse Regional at Syracuse, NY
SYRACUSE 79, William & Mary 55
Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Tipoff
at MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA
Bradley 69, Tcu 66
New Hampshire 71, Usc 67
Rider 80, Loyola Marymount 74
O'Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic
Oxford Subregional at Oxford, OH
MIAMI (OHIO) 61, Green Bay 60
San Diego State 73, Iupui 62
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
at Coliseo de Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR
Nebraska 70, Hofstra 68
Vanderbilt 75, North Carolina 73
Western Kentucky 77, Davidson 69
Championship
West Virginia 72, Minnesota 66
SMU Invitational
Round Robin at Dallas, TX
Portland State 75, UC Riverside 70
SMU 75, Lamar 65
South Padre Invitational
at campus sites
SAINT MARY'S 87, Mississippi Valley State 53
SOUTH FLORIDA 84, Georgia Southern 67
TEXAS TECH 86, Liberty 68
U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam
Championship Semifinals at UVI Sports & Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, USVI
Old Dominion vs. Clemson: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Xavier 85, Seton Hall 81
Non-Conference
Boise State 75, UC DAVIS 70
Illinois State 73, UALR 63
INDIANA 68, Evansville 62
LOYOLA (MD.) 68, Dartmouth 54
Miami (Fla.) 73, RUTGERS 69
MONTANA STATE 74, Cal Poly 70
OKLAHOMA STATE 78, New Hampshire 60
OREGON STATE 69, Texas Southern 50
SAN DIEGO 73, Cal State Fullerton 67
St. Bonaventure 70, BINGHAMTON 64
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 61, Howard 54
STANFORD 70, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51
STONY BROOK 71, Wagner 52
Virginia Tech 78, UNC GREENSBORO 64
DCI NFL
Sunday, November 21, 2010
PITTSBURGH 24, Oakland 20
DALLAS 29, Detroit 21
JACKSONVILLE 23, Cleveland 22
TENNESSEE 30, Washington 20
N.Y. JETS 31, Houston 15
Baltimore 24, CAROLINA 10
Green Bay 27, MINNESOTA 18
KANSAS CITY 33, Arizona 22
CINCINNATI 23, Buffalo 17
NEW ORLEANS 28, Seattle 13
SAN FRANCISCO 20, Tampa Bay 19
Atlanta 24, ST. LOUIS 15
NEW ENGLAND 29, Indianapolis 24
Philadelphia 30, N.Y. GIANTS 29
Monday, November 22, 2010
SAN DIEGO 33, Denver 23
Sunday, November 21, 2010
PITTSBURGH 24, Oakland 20
DALLAS 29, Detroit 21
JACKSONVILLE 23, Cleveland 22
TENNESSEE 30, Washington 20
N.Y. JETS 31, Houston 15
Baltimore 24, CAROLINA 10
Green Bay 27, MINNESOTA 18
KANSAS CITY 33, Arizona 22
CINCINNATI 23, Buffalo 17
NEW ORLEANS 28, Seattle 13
SAN FRANCISCO 20, Tampa Bay 19
Atlanta 24, ST. LOUIS 15
NEW ENGLAND 29, Indianapolis 24
Philadelphia 30, N.Y. GIANTS 29
Monday, November 22, 2010
SAN DIEGO 33, Denver 23
Bobby Maxwell
Sunday's winners...
700-Unit NFL Absolute Lock - PITTSBURGH STEELERS
If you don’t think this is a revenge game for the Steelers, you’re crazy. Pittsburgh let the Raiders’ Bruce Gradkowski throw for 223 yards in the fourth quarter last year and the last-place Raiders scored three TDs to beat the Steelers 27-24 and sent Pittsburgh reeling and essentially out of the playoffs.
Now, Pittsburgh comes in off a bad home performance against the Patriots and with some injuries, but I think today you’ll see the Steelers defense step up and dominate this game and bring the offense along for the ride. This game is going to be ugly and I expect the Steelers to win it 28-10.
Even with the ugly outing last week, the Steelers give up just 18.8 points per game at home and just 75 rushing yards per game. They are not going to let Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden have a big day and they are going to force Jason Campbell to throw the ball. He is completing just 57 percent of his throws and has 7 TDs and 5 INTs.
Pittsburgh needs balance on the offensive side and don’t need Ben Roethlisberger making 50 pass attempts. They will get the running game on track with Rashard Mendenhall who has 850 yards rushing this season, seven TDs and no fumbles.
Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points and 4-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Steelers are going to bounce back in a big way and put a hurting on the Raiders. I know Oakland has won some games lately and they are in the thick of things in the AFC West, but they are overmatched today.
Lay the points and play the Steelers.
100-Unit NFL Primetime Pushover - NEW YORK GIANTS
Yes, I saw the way the Eagles and QB Michael Vick completely demolished the Redskins on Monday night. But I’m not going to over-react to it like the rest of the world has. He beat a terrible Washington team that is about to implode. Nothing all that impressive. He faces a real defense tonight and I’m going to grab the points with the Giants, who have been humiliated all week for their performance against the Cowboys.
New York has the NFL’s top-rated defense, allowing just 270.2 yards per game. I know they got shredded by the Cowboys last week, but there was a whole lot of emotion on the Cowboys’ sideline with the firing of Wade Phillips. Today, you’ll see the real Giants’ defense get after Vick and stuff those Eagles’ receivers at the line of scrimmage and not let them get downfield for the deep pass.
Both teams have explosive offenses, with the Eagles averaging 400 yards per game while the Giants average 409.8. New York QB Eli Manning is tied for the NFL lead with 19 TDs and WR Hakeem Nicks is tied for the NFL lead with 9 TD catches. Both teams also rush the ball well with Philly No. 1 in the NFC and New York second.
The key is going to be the pressure coming from the Eagles’ defensive line. They had the record-setting game earlier this season against the Bears, and they have got to get after Vick today and get him to the ground.
The Giants have cashed in four of their last five trips to Philly and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. New York is also on ATS surges of 21-7 on the road, 13-5 as an underdog and 12-4 as a road ‘dog. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS at home, 2-5 ATS against NFC East rivals and 1-5 ATS against winning teams. I’m grabbing the points with the Giants in this matchup.
Sunday's winners...
700-Unit NFL Absolute Lock - PITTSBURGH STEELERS
If you don’t think this is a revenge game for the Steelers, you’re crazy. Pittsburgh let the Raiders’ Bruce Gradkowski throw for 223 yards in the fourth quarter last year and the last-place Raiders scored three TDs to beat the Steelers 27-24 and sent Pittsburgh reeling and essentially out of the playoffs.
Now, Pittsburgh comes in off a bad home performance against the Patriots and with some injuries, but I think today you’ll see the Steelers defense step up and dominate this game and bring the offense along for the ride. This game is going to be ugly and I expect the Steelers to win it 28-10.
Even with the ugly outing last week, the Steelers give up just 18.8 points per game at home and just 75 rushing yards per game. They are not going to let Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden have a big day and they are going to force Jason Campbell to throw the ball. He is completing just 57 percent of his throws and has 7 TDs and 5 INTs.
Pittsburgh needs balance on the offensive side and don’t need Ben Roethlisberger making 50 pass attempts. They will get the running game on track with Rashard Mendenhall who has 850 yards rushing this season, seven TDs and no fumbles.
Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points and 4-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Steelers are going to bounce back in a big way and put a hurting on the Raiders. I know Oakland has won some games lately and they are in the thick of things in the AFC West, but they are overmatched today.
Lay the points and play the Steelers.
100-Unit NFL Primetime Pushover - NEW YORK GIANTS
Yes, I saw the way the Eagles and QB Michael Vick completely demolished the Redskins on Monday night. But I’m not going to over-react to it like the rest of the world has. He beat a terrible Washington team that is about to implode. Nothing all that impressive. He faces a real defense tonight and I’m going to grab the points with the Giants, who have been humiliated all week for their performance against the Cowboys.
New York has the NFL’s top-rated defense, allowing just 270.2 yards per game. I know they got shredded by the Cowboys last week, but there was a whole lot of emotion on the Cowboys’ sideline with the firing of Wade Phillips. Today, you’ll see the real Giants’ defense get after Vick and stuff those Eagles’ receivers at the line of scrimmage and not let them get downfield for the deep pass.
Both teams have explosive offenses, with the Eagles averaging 400 yards per game while the Giants average 409.8. New York QB Eli Manning is tied for the NFL lead with 19 TDs and WR Hakeem Nicks is tied for the NFL lead with 9 TD catches. Both teams also rush the ball well with Philly No. 1 in the NFC and New York second.
The key is going to be the pressure coming from the Eagles’ defensive line. They had the record-setting game earlier this season against the Bears, and they have got to get after Vick today and get him to the ground.
The Giants have cashed in four of their last five trips to Philly and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. New York is also on ATS surges of 21-7 on the road, 13-5 as an underdog and 12-4 as a road ‘dog. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS at home, 2-5 ATS against NFC East rivals and 1-5 ATS against winning teams. I’m grabbing the points with the Giants in this matchup.
Last edited:
Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
100 Dime play on the Rams plus the points over the Falcons. As this selectaon is being released at 1 am Eastern, St. Louis is currentoly getting 3 points in this contest. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insuerance at anywhere from + 3 to + 4 1/2.
No one seems to believe the Rams have a shot here. No one except me that is. Before we even begin this analysis, doesn't it seem a bit fishy that you're only being ask to lay a field goal to play the red-hot Falcons here? Given their 3 straight wins, incl. an impressive one against Baltimore in their last one, and a surging Matt Ryan leading the way, it would appear oddmakers have made a huge mistake with this number. Or have they?
Here's the big x-factor... the venue. Notice the Falcons three straight wins all came at home, where they're all but unbeatable. However, put the Birds on the road, and all of a sudden they looks like an average NFL football team. Atlanta averages just 18 ppg away, while allowing 20 ppg. This is significant, because the Rams are similar the Falcons in one respect - they play MUCH better at home. St. Louis is not only built to play on the turf, but their numbers prove it, allowing 12 ppg on 294 total yards at the Edward Jones Dome, where they're 4-1 SUATS this season!
With all the talk about "Matty Ice," bettors are ignoring just how well Sam Bradford is playing of late, throwing 6 TDs without a pick over his L4 games! He's posted a QB rating no worse than 87 over that span, and with Steven Jackson healthy and running hard, this St. Louis offense is good enough to stick with Atlanta - given the venue of course.
On the other side of the ball, not only is the Rams defense feature a strong pass rush, but they're also great against the run - which is key against this Falcons offense. Did you know the Rams are tied for 1st in the NFL with 28 sacks? How about their run defense... Did you know they allow only 79 rushing yards per game at home? Before you dismiss this Rams team in this match up, consider the venue, and consider how the Rams strengths counteract the Falcons strengths.
Public is ALL OVER Atlanta in this spot, because they're failing to give credit where credit due. St. Louis has been money lately (7-1 ATS L8), and is a very good team at home. On the other hand, the public is also giving way too much credit to the Falcons, who've proven very vulnerable on the highway. Public bloodbath in the making, but not for my clients. Take the Rams plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over the Falcons Sunday.
Today's Winner...
100 Dime play on the Rams plus the points over the Falcons. As this selectaon is being released at 1 am Eastern, St. Louis is currentoly getting 3 points in this contest. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insuerance at anywhere from + 3 to + 4 1/2.
No one seems to believe the Rams have a shot here. No one except me that is. Before we even begin this analysis, doesn't it seem a bit fishy that you're only being ask to lay a field goal to play the red-hot Falcons here? Given their 3 straight wins, incl. an impressive one against Baltimore in their last one, and a surging Matt Ryan leading the way, it would appear oddmakers have made a huge mistake with this number. Or have they?
Here's the big x-factor... the venue. Notice the Falcons three straight wins all came at home, where they're all but unbeatable. However, put the Birds on the road, and all of a sudden they looks like an average NFL football team. Atlanta averages just 18 ppg away, while allowing 20 ppg. This is significant, because the Rams are similar the Falcons in one respect - they play MUCH better at home. St. Louis is not only built to play on the turf, but their numbers prove it, allowing 12 ppg on 294 total yards at the Edward Jones Dome, where they're 4-1 SUATS this season!
With all the talk about "Matty Ice," bettors are ignoring just how well Sam Bradford is playing of late, throwing 6 TDs without a pick over his L4 games! He's posted a QB rating no worse than 87 over that span, and with Steven Jackson healthy and running hard, this St. Louis offense is good enough to stick with Atlanta - given the venue of course.
On the other side of the ball, not only is the Rams defense feature a strong pass rush, but they're also great against the run - which is key against this Falcons offense. Did you know the Rams are tied for 1st in the NFL with 28 sacks? How about their run defense... Did you know they allow only 79 rushing yards per game at home? Before you dismiss this Rams team in this match up, consider the venue, and consider how the Rams strengths counteract the Falcons strengths.
Public is ALL OVER Atlanta in this spot, because they're failing to give credit where credit due. St. Louis has been money lately (7-1 ATS L8), and is a very good team at home. On the other hand, the public is also giving way too much credit to the Falcons, who've proven very vulnerable on the highway. Public bloodbath in the making, but not for my clients. Take the Rams plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over the Falcons Sunday.
A.Redd
Sunday's Card
75 Dime release on Baltimore over Carolina. As this selection is releaised at 4 AM Eastern, the Ravens are currently layning 11 points pretty much everywhere here in Vegas and offishore.
15 Dime 1st Half release on Baltimore over Carolina. The Ravens are currently laying 7 points in the 1st Half of this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Cleveland-Jacksonville game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Baltimore-Carolina game. The total is currently at 37 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Detroit-Dallas game. The total is currently at between 46 1/2 and 47 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Atlanta-St. Louis game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the NY Giants-Philadelphia game. The total is currently at 48 in this contest.
Sunday's Card
75 Dime release on Baltimore over Carolina. As this selection is releaised at 4 AM Eastern, the Ravens are currently layning 11 points pretty much everywhere here in Vegas and offishore.
15 Dime 1st Half release on Baltimore over Carolina. The Ravens are currently laying 7 points in the 1st Half of this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Cleveland-Jacksonville game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Over in the Baltimore-Carolina game. The total is currently at 37 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Detroit-Dallas game. The total is currently at between 46 1/2 and 47 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the Atlanta-St. Louis game. The total is currently at 43 in this contest.
15 Dime release on the Under in the NY Giants-Philadelphia game. The total is currently at 48 in this contest.
The Gold Medal Club: NFL
10* Pittsburgh
10* Houston
25* Carolina
25* Atlanta
50* Minnesota
GL boys nice card this week.
10* Pittsburgh
10* Houston
25* Carolina
25* Atlanta
50* Minnesota
GL boys nice card this week.
Statsystems nfl report 11/21
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/21
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- NFL *****
***** SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST NFL INFORMATION *****
__________________________________________________ _______
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
• 2-MINUTE DRILL
----------------------
--Oakland 0-7 w/ rest… 1-6 off BB SU wins… CABLE: 2-7 off div... 9-3 OVER non-div conf dogs 6 > pts
--PITTSBURGH 6-0 w/ rev vs non div opp off BB SUATS wins... 5-1 OVER non-div favs 7 > pts
--Houston 12-0 dogs > 4 pts off 3 dog roles… 12-2 in 2nd of BB RG’s... 1-3 UNDER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--NY JETS RYAN: 5-1 vs AFC opp off div… 1-4 O/U Game Ten... 2-7 UNDER home off BB RG’s
--Baltimore HARBAUGH: 11-2 fav vs non div opp (2-1 this year)... 1-5 UNDER favs in 2nd of BB RG’s
--CAROLINA 2-9 non conf dogs (0-1 this year)… 1-4 Game Ten... 1-5 UNDER as HD’s 5 > pts
--Washington 0-8 SU Game Ten… NOV: 3-16 SU last 19 away... 6-0 OVER vs AFC South
--TENNESSEE SERIES: 6-1 L7… 5-1 Game Ten… 6-12 L18 as fav... 8-0 OVER vs NFC East
--Detroit 7-0 A vs non div opp off DD ATS win (1-0 this year)... 2-6 UNDER bef Thursday gm
--DALLAS NOV: 17-3 HF’s vs < .500 opp… 1-8-1 H aft Giants... 2-5 UNDER bef Thursday gm
--Green Bay 0-7 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off div w/ rev... 1-4 UNDER aft Bye Week
--MINNESOTA NOV: 7-0 off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins... 1-4 UNDER vs opp off Bye Week
--Buffalo 11-2 RD’s 3 > pts vs < .500 opp… 5-1 O/U Game Ten... 6-2 OVER L8 vs Bengals
--CINCINNATI 0-7 H vs non div opp off SU win… 3-9 Game Ten... 9-3 OVER vs AFC East
--Cleveland SERIES: 3-1 L4… 9-0 A off SU loss vs non div opp off SU win... 10-0 OVER away off BB HG’s
--JACKSONVILLE 0-5 vs AFC North… 1-7 favs < 10 pts vs .333 < opp... 6-1 OVER in 2nd of BB HG’s
--Arizona 0-6 off BB SU losses vs opp allowed 35 > pts... 7-1 OVER away vs AFC
--KANSAS CITY 5-0 off BB RG’s vs non div opp off SU fav loss... 9-1 OVER after RG vs Broncos
--Seattle SERIES: 3-1 L4… CARROLL: 1-9 vs opp off BB SUATS wins... 8-2 OVER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--NEW ORLEANS 10-0 HF’s 3 > pts vs non div opp off SU dog win... 4-1 OVER aft Bye Week
--Atlanta 0-6 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU div loss… 1-4 Game Ten... 6-2 OVER off SUATS non-conf win
--ST. LOUIS SERIES: 8-3 L11 / 3-0 L3 H… 1-8 off div RG… 2-7 Game Ten... 12-4 OVER L16 vs Falcons
--Tampa Bay NOV: 13-1 A vs opp off div… 15-3 Game Ten... 1-5 UNDER aft Panthers
--S FRANCISCO 4-1 Game Nine… 1-10 off BB SU wins vs non div opp... 1-5 UNDER L6 vs Bucs
--Indianapolis NOV: 9-2 A vs opp off DD SU win… 1-3 O/U Game Ten... 5-1 OVER away vs AFC East
--NEW ENGLAND NOV: 1-11 favs off DD SU win vs opp off SU win... 6-2 OVER home vs AFC South
--Ny Giants 3-11 Game Ten… COUGHLIN: 10-1 div dog off SU loss 7 > pts... 7-1 OVER L8 dog
--PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 1-4 L5 H… 8-0 aft Redskins… 0-3 O/U Game Ten... 4-1 OVER L5 H favs 0.5 to 3.0
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #409 RAIDERS (5-4) @ #410 STEELERS (6-3) - Oakland is 0-7 vs spread in game after its last seven byes; they upset Steelers as 10-point dogs here LY; they’re 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last four visits here. Raiders won last three games before bye, scoring 38.3 ppg, outscoring teams 67-20 in second half, running ball for 226 ypg; they’ve allowed only six TDs on 53 drives in last four games, forcing 26 3/outs. Pitt defense allowed 12 ppg in first five games (five TDs on 55 drives), 25.5 in last four (nine TDs/45 drives). Penalties don’t kill; in their 3-game win streak, Raiders have been penalized 36 times for 339 yards. Over is 5-2 in last seven Raider games, 4-1 in Steeler games since Big Ben came back.
• #411 TEXANS (4-5) @ #412 JETS (7-2) - Horrific Houston defense allowed 30.8 ppg in 1-4 skid over last five games, allowing 18 TDs on last 49 drives; letting Jaguars go 64 yards on two plays in 0:08 to win game last week was ugly. Texans are 0-4 vs Jets, losing two visits here 29-7/26-11- they’re 1-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 on road. Jets won seven of last eight games, but last three wins are by 4-3-3 points; last week, they became first-ever team to win OT road games in consecutive weeks—they allowed 9-10 points in their two losses, so teams that beat them shut Sanchez down. Over is 7-1 in last eight Jet games, 6-3 in Houston games, 3-1 in their road tilts.
• #413 RAVENS (6-3) @ #414 PANTHERS (1-8) - Baltimore had three extra days to prepare after tough loss in Atlanta last week; Carolina has three rookies at QB; Clausen had concussion next week, so Pike could get nod here, vs Raven defense that hasn’t been as good as past years, allowing 2+ TDs in six of last seven games. Ravens are 0-3 vs. Carolina, losing last two games by combined total of five points, but teams haven’t met since ’06. Seven of nine Baltimore games were decided by 7 or less points. Seven of eight Panther losses were by 10+ points. Under is 4-1 in Baltimore road games, 6-2 in last eight Panther games.
• #415 REDSKINS (4-5) @ #416 TITANS (5-4) - Interesting to see how Skins respond on short week after Monday night debacle; they were first home team in NFL history to trail 28-0 in first quarter!!! Washington allowed 14 or less points in all four of its wins, 27+ in all five losses. Titan QB Collins (ankle) is out for few weeks, so if Young were to get hurt again, untested rookie Rusty Smith (played at FAU) would see first NFL action; either that, or they’d just run Wildcat the whole game. Redskins split only two visits here, with last one eight years ago. Over is 5-1 in Titans’ last six games, 3-1 in last four Washington games.
• #417 LIONS (2-7) @ #418 COWBOYS (2-7) - Detroit lost to 0-8 Buffalo last week, year after they lost to 0-7 Rams, but they’re still an amazing 8-1 vs spread this year, covering last six games- they’re 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 5-14-2-8-2 points (24-10 loss at Minnesota was their only non-cover this year). Cowboys looked like new team with their new coach last week, but with champ Saints visiting on Turkey Day next week, could a 2-7 team possibly look past this game? Dallas has still allowed average of 33.2 ppg in last six games. Cowboys won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Lions actually split their last four visits here.
• #419 PACKERS (6-3) @ #420 VIKINGS (3-6) - Minnesota outrushed Pack 196-84 in first meeting, but lost 28-24 in Lambeau (+2.5), as Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack allowed only one TD on 21 drives (ten 3/outs) in two wins since then, and should be fresh coming off bye. Capers’ defense has 10 takeaways in last three games, while offense hasn’t turned it over in last two games (+7). Minnesota allowed 21+ points in last six games, losing three of last four (11 giveaways, -6), and they trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win. Green Bay won seven of last nine post-bye games. All four Green Bay road games stayed under total (average total, 30.5), but over is 5-0-1 in Vikings’ last six games (average total, 47.2).
• #421 BILLS (1-8) @ #422 BENGALS (2-7) - Buffalo is 9-0 in this series since losing playoff game in Queen City 22 years ago; they won last three visits here, by 13-16-10 points. Bengals lost last six games, and were favored in three of them; they’re 1-3 at home (beat Ravens 15-10), 1-3 as favorite, 1-1 at home- they’re 0-7 when they give up more than 10 points. Last four Buffalo games were all decided by 3 or less points, after they had lost previous four games by 10+ points each. Last three Buffalo games stayed under total. Average total in last three series games is 56.0. Not sure how you could justify laying 5.5 points with team that hasn’t won in seven weeks.
• #423 BROWNS (3-6) @ #424 JAGUARS (5-4) - Cleveland beat Jags in each of last two years, both by 23-17 scores; Browns won last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last six meetings. Improved Browns lost to 7-2 Jets in OT last week, after beating Saints/Patriots before that, but they’re just 1-3 on road, scoring 13.7 ppg in three losses. Jags won last two games- they scored 31+ points in last four wins, and are 0-4 when they score less than 24. Cleveland is 3-0 with positive turnover ratio, 0-3 without it. Jags won field position battle in seven of nine games, and found a way to win on last play last week. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 7-2 in Jaguar games this season.
• #425 CARDINALS (3-6) @ #426 CHIEFS (5-4) - Chief coach Todd Haley vs team he helped get to Super Bowl as OC two years ago. Arizona is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30.8 ppg (allowed nine TDs on 36 drives in last three games); they lost last four road games, by average score of 34-13- they had two TD lead with 5:00 left in last road game, but Favre bailed Vikings out. Chiefs are 4-0 at home (1-1 as home favorite) winning by 7-21-22-3 points. KC won four of last five series games; Redbirds are 0-3-1 here, losing by 24-10-49 points, but last visit was in ’02. Seven of last eight Cardinal games, four of last five Chief games went over.
• #427 SEAHAWKS (5-4) @ #428 SAINTS (6-3) - New Orleans lost four of last five post-bye games. Seattle scored 14 or less points in its losses, 22+ in its wins; Saints held three or less foes to 10 or less points. Seahawk QB Hasselbeck expected to play with broken bone in left wrist. Hawks are 2-3 on road, with losses by 17-17-30 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog, 2-2 on road. Saints should be fresh after bye; they outscored last four opponents 62-23 in second half, and allowed only one TD on 23 drives in last two games. NO is 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite, 1-3-1 at home, with wins by 5-2-10 points. All four Seattle losses are by 17+ points. Teams split ten series tilts (2-2 here), with last meeting in ’07.
• #429 FALCONS (7-2) @ #430 RAMS (4-5) - Atlanta won last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TDs on 29 drives); they’re 1-2 (0-3 vs. spread) when scoring less than 20 points (only win 16-14 over 49ers). St Louis won its last four home games, allowing 11.5 ppg (gave up four TDs on 45 drives), but offense is having trouble in second half (Rams outscored 66-23 in second half of last five games). Atlanta is 2-2 on road with two OT games; they’re 4-3 as favorites, 1-1 on road. Falcons lost last five visits here, with last win here in ’98, when Tony Banks was Rams’ QB. Last four Atlanta games went over total; under is 4-1 in Rams’ home games.
• #431 BUCCANEERS (6-3) @ #432 49ERS (3-6) - Home team won last seven series games, with Tampa Bay losing last eight visits here; Bucs are 1-11 on Candlestick Point, with only win vs 1-15 Niners back in 1980; teams split last six meetings, with average total of 31.5 in those six. Insertion of Troy Smith at QB has sparked 49ers, who won last two games, scoring 24-23 points, but fact is they’re just 5-24 on 3rd down in Smith’s two starts. Niners’ +6 turnover ratio (7-1) in last four games has been big help. Four of six Tampa wins have been by three or less points, as Freeman has proven to be clutch player (converted 13-23 on 3rd down in last two games). Over is 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven games.
• #433 COLTS (6-3) @ #434 PATRIOTS (7-2) - Indy won four of last five games, Patriots six of last seven. Colt offense is banged-up; their only offensive TD vs Bengals last week came on 25-yard drive after a fumble. Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 as home favorite), with three wins by 10+ points. Indy covered only Game as dog this year (L24-26 @ Philly, +3). Indy won five of last six series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Colts won last two visits here (last visit in ’06), 40-21/27-20. Average total in last six series games is 54.3; over is 4-1 in Colt road games, 7-2 in New England games this year. Brady was held to 14 points in each of his losses. Colts allowed 24+ in four of five road games. Seems like these teams play in Week 10 every year.
• #435 GIANTS (6-3) @ #436 EAGLES (6-3) - Big Blue was rolling along on 5-game win streak until Dallas upset them 33-20 last week, with 38-year old backup QB Kitna throwing for 14.1 yards/attempt. Eagles won four of last five games, as Vick is playing better than he ever has. Philly ran ball for 455 yards in last two games, gaining 994 yards; they’ve won field position battle in last four games. Giants offense has gained 497-487-480 total yards in last three games, even though they had two OL starters out last week. Philly won last four series games, three of which were in Swamp; Giants are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost 40-17 in LY’s visits, only home win in last six series games.
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/21
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- NFL *****
***** SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Oakland 0-7 w/ rest… 1-6 off BB SU wins… CABLE: 2-7 off div... 9-3 OVER non-div conf dogs 6 > pts
--PITTSBURGH 6-0 w/ rev vs non div opp off BB SUATS wins... 5-1 OVER non-div favs 7 > pts
--Houston 12-0 dogs > 4 pts off 3 dog roles… 12-2 in 2nd of BB RG’s... 1-3 UNDER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--NY JETS RYAN: 5-1 vs AFC opp off div… 1-4 O/U Game Ten... 2-7 UNDER home off BB RG’s
--Baltimore HARBAUGH: 11-2 fav vs non div opp (2-1 this year)... 1-5 UNDER favs in 2nd of BB RG’s
--CAROLINA 2-9 non conf dogs (0-1 this year)… 1-4 Game Ten... 1-5 UNDER as HD’s 5 > pts
--Washington 0-8 SU Game Ten… NOV: 3-16 SU last 19 away... 6-0 OVER vs AFC South
--TENNESSEE SERIES: 6-1 L7… 5-1 Game Ten… 6-12 L18 as fav... 8-0 OVER vs NFC East
--Detroit 7-0 A vs non div opp off DD ATS win (1-0 this year)... 2-6 UNDER bef Thursday gm
--DALLAS NOV: 17-3 HF’s vs < .500 opp… 1-8-1 H aft Giants... 2-5 UNDER bef Thursday gm
--Green Bay 0-7 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off div w/ rev... 1-4 UNDER aft Bye Week
--MINNESOTA NOV: 7-0 off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins... 1-4 UNDER vs opp off Bye Week
--Buffalo 11-2 RD’s 3 > pts vs < .500 opp… 5-1 O/U Game Ten... 6-2 OVER L8 vs Bengals
--CINCINNATI 0-7 H vs non div opp off SU win… 3-9 Game Ten... 9-3 OVER vs AFC East
--Cleveland SERIES: 3-1 L4… 9-0 A off SU loss vs non div opp off SU win... 10-0 OVER away off BB HG’s
--JACKSONVILLE 0-5 vs AFC North… 1-7 favs < 10 pts vs .333 < opp... 6-1 OVER in 2nd of BB HG’s
--Arizona 0-6 off BB SU losses vs opp allowed 35 > pts... 7-1 OVER away vs AFC
--KANSAS CITY 5-0 off BB RG’s vs non div opp off SU fav loss... 9-1 OVER after RG vs Broncos
--Seattle SERIES: 3-1 L4… CARROLL: 1-9 vs opp off BB SUATS wins... 8-2 OVER in 2nd of BB RG’s
--NEW ORLEANS 10-0 HF’s 3 > pts vs non div opp off SU dog win... 4-1 OVER aft Bye Week
--Atlanta 0-6 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU div loss… 1-4 Game Ten... 6-2 OVER off SUATS non-conf win
--ST. LOUIS SERIES: 8-3 L11 / 3-0 L3 H… 1-8 off div RG… 2-7 Game Ten... 12-4 OVER L16 vs Falcons
--Tampa Bay NOV: 13-1 A vs opp off div… 15-3 Game Ten... 1-5 UNDER aft Panthers
--S FRANCISCO 4-1 Game Nine… 1-10 off BB SU wins vs non div opp... 1-5 UNDER L6 vs Bucs
--Indianapolis NOV: 9-2 A vs opp off DD SU win… 1-3 O/U Game Ten... 5-1 OVER away vs AFC East
--NEW ENGLAND NOV: 1-11 favs off DD SU win vs opp off SU win... 6-2 OVER home vs AFC South
--Ny Giants 3-11 Game Ten… COUGHLIN: 10-1 div dog off SU loss 7 > pts... 7-1 OVER L8 dog
--PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 1-4 L5 H… 8-0 aft Redskins… 0-3 O/U Game Ten... 4-1 OVER L5 H favs 0.5 to 3.0
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #409 RAIDERS (5-4) @ #410 STEELERS (6-3) - Oakland is 0-7 vs spread in game after its last seven byes; they upset Steelers as 10-point dogs here LY; they’re 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last four visits here. Raiders won last three games before bye, scoring 38.3 ppg, outscoring teams 67-20 in second half, running ball for 226 ypg; they’ve allowed only six TDs on 53 drives in last four games, forcing 26 3/outs. Pitt defense allowed 12 ppg in first five games (five TDs on 55 drives), 25.5 in last four (nine TDs/45 drives). Penalties don’t kill; in their 3-game win streak, Raiders have been penalized 36 times for 339 yards. Over is 5-2 in last seven Raider games, 4-1 in Steeler games since Big Ben came back.
• #411 TEXANS (4-5) @ #412 JETS (7-2) - Horrific Houston defense allowed 30.8 ppg in 1-4 skid over last five games, allowing 18 TDs on last 49 drives; letting Jaguars go 64 yards on two plays in 0:08 to win game last week was ugly. Texans are 0-4 vs Jets, losing two visits here 29-7/26-11- they’re 1-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 on road. Jets won seven of last eight games, but last three wins are by 4-3-3 points; last week, they became first-ever team to win OT road games in consecutive weeks—they allowed 9-10 points in their two losses, so teams that beat them shut Sanchez down. Over is 7-1 in last eight Jet games, 6-3 in Houston games, 3-1 in their road tilts.
• #413 RAVENS (6-3) @ #414 PANTHERS (1-8) - Baltimore had three extra days to prepare after tough loss in Atlanta last week; Carolina has three rookies at QB; Clausen had concussion next week, so Pike could get nod here, vs Raven defense that hasn’t been as good as past years, allowing 2+ TDs in six of last seven games. Ravens are 0-3 vs. Carolina, losing last two games by combined total of five points, but teams haven’t met since ’06. Seven of nine Baltimore games were decided by 7 or less points. Seven of eight Panther losses were by 10+ points. Under is 4-1 in Baltimore road games, 6-2 in last eight Panther games.
• #415 REDSKINS (4-5) @ #416 TITANS (5-4) - Interesting to see how Skins respond on short week after Monday night debacle; they were first home team in NFL history to trail 28-0 in first quarter!!! Washington allowed 14 or less points in all four of its wins, 27+ in all five losses. Titan QB Collins (ankle) is out for few weeks, so if Young were to get hurt again, untested rookie Rusty Smith (played at FAU) would see first NFL action; either that, or they’d just run Wildcat the whole game. Redskins split only two visits here, with last one eight years ago. Over is 5-1 in Titans’ last six games, 3-1 in last four Washington games.
• #417 LIONS (2-7) @ #418 COWBOYS (2-7) - Detroit lost to 0-8 Buffalo last week, year after they lost to 0-7 Rams, but they’re still an amazing 8-1 vs spread this year, covering last six games- they’re 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 5-14-2-8-2 points (24-10 loss at Minnesota was their only non-cover this year). Cowboys looked like new team with their new coach last week, but with champ Saints visiting on Turkey Day next week, could a 2-7 team possibly look past this game? Dallas has still allowed average of 33.2 ppg in last six games. Cowboys won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Lions actually split their last four visits here.
• #419 PACKERS (6-3) @ #420 VIKINGS (3-6) - Minnesota outrushed Pack 196-84 in first meeting, but lost 28-24 in Lambeau (+2.5), as Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack allowed only one TD on 21 drives (ten 3/outs) in two wins since then, and should be fresh coming off bye. Capers’ defense has 10 takeaways in last three games, while offense hasn’t turned it over in last two games (+7). Minnesota allowed 21+ points in last six games, losing three of last four (11 giveaways, -6), and they trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win. Green Bay won seven of last nine post-bye games. All four Green Bay road games stayed under total (average total, 30.5), but over is 5-0-1 in Vikings’ last six games (average total, 47.2).
• #421 BILLS (1-8) @ #422 BENGALS (2-7) - Buffalo is 9-0 in this series since losing playoff game in Queen City 22 years ago; they won last three visits here, by 13-16-10 points. Bengals lost last six games, and were favored in three of them; they’re 1-3 at home (beat Ravens 15-10), 1-3 as favorite, 1-1 at home- they’re 0-7 when they give up more than 10 points. Last four Buffalo games were all decided by 3 or less points, after they had lost previous four games by 10+ points each. Last three Buffalo games stayed under total. Average total in last three series games is 56.0. Not sure how you could justify laying 5.5 points with team that hasn’t won in seven weeks.
• #423 BROWNS (3-6) @ #424 JAGUARS (5-4) - Cleveland beat Jags in each of last two years, both by 23-17 scores; Browns won last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last six meetings. Improved Browns lost to 7-2 Jets in OT last week, after beating Saints/Patriots before that, but they’re just 1-3 on road, scoring 13.7 ppg in three losses. Jags won last two games- they scored 31+ points in last four wins, and are 0-4 when they score less than 24. Cleveland is 3-0 with positive turnover ratio, 0-3 without it. Jags won field position battle in seven of nine games, and found a way to win on last play last week. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 7-2 in Jaguar games this season.
• #425 CARDINALS (3-6) @ #426 CHIEFS (5-4) - Chief coach Todd Haley vs team he helped get to Super Bowl as OC two years ago. Arizona is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30.8 ppg (allowed nine TDs on 36 drives in last three games); they lost last four road games, by average score of 34-13- they had two TD lead with 5:00 left in last road game, but Favre bailed Vikings out. Chiefs are 4-0 at home (1-1 as home favorite) winning by 7-21-22-3 points. KC won four of last five series games; Redbirds are 0-3-1 here, losing by 24-10-49 points, but last visit was in ’02. Seven of last eight Cardinal games, four of last five Chief games went over.
• #427 SEAHAWKS (5-4) @ #428 SAINTS (6-3) - New Orleans lost four of last five post-bye games. Seattle scored 14 or less points in its losses, 22+ in its wins; Saints held three or less foes to 10 or less points. Seahawk QB Hasselbeck expected to play with broken bone in left wrist. Hawks are 2-3 on road, with losses by 17-17-30 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog, 2-2 on road. Saints should be fresh after bye; they outscored last four opponents 62-23 in second half, and allowed only one TD on 23 drives in last two games. NO is 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite, 1-3-1 at home, with wins by 5-2-10 points. All four Seattle losses are by 17+ points. Teams split ten series tilts (2-2 here), with last meeting in ’07.
• #429 FALCONS (7-2) @ #430 RAMS (4-5) - Atlanta won last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TDs on 29 drives); they’re 1-2 (0-3 vs. spread) when scoring less than 20 points (only win 16-14 over 49ers). St Louis won its last four home games, allowing 11.5 ppg (gave up four TDs on 45 drives), but offense is having trouble in second half (Rams outscored 66-23 in second half of last five games). Atlanta is 2-2 on road with two OT games; they’re 4-3 as favorites, 1-1 on road. Falcons lost last five visits here, with last win here in ’98, when Tony Banks was Rams’ QB. Last four Atlanta games went over total; under is 4-1 in Rams’ home games.
• #431 BUCCANEERS (6-3) @ #432 49ERS (3-6) - Home team won last seven series games, with Tampa Bay losing last eight visits here; Bucs are 1-11 on Candlestick Point, with only win vs 1-15 Niners back in 1980; teams split last six meetings, with average total of 31.5 in those six. Insertion of Troy Smith at QB has sparked 49ers, who won last two games, scoring 24-23 points, but fact is they’re just 5-24 on 3rd down in Smith’s two starts. Niners’ +6 turnover ratio (7-1) in last four games has been big help. Four of six Tampa wins have been by three or less points, as Freeman has proven to be clutch player (converted 13-23 on 3rd down in last two games). Over is 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven games.
• #433 COLTS (6-3) @ #434 PATRIOTS (7-2) - Indy won four of last five games, Patriots six of last seven. Colt offense is banged-up; their only offensive TD vs Bengals last week came on 25-yard drive after a fumble. Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 as home favorite), with three wins by 10+ points. Indy covered only Game as dog this year (L24-26 @ Philly, +3). Indy won five of last six series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Colts won last two visits here (last visit in ’06), 40-21/27-20. Average total in last six series games is 54.3; over is 4-1 in Colt road games, 7-2 in New England games this year. Brady was held to 14 points in each of his losses. Colts allowed 24+ in four of five road games. Seems like these teams play in Week 10 every year.
• #435 GIANTS (6-3) @ #436 EAGLES (6-3) - Big Blue was rolling along on 5-game win streak until Dallas upset them 33-20 last week, with 38-year old backup QB Kitna throwing for 14.1 yards/attempt. Eagles won four of last five games, as Vick is playing better than he ever has. Philly ran ball for 455 yards in last two games, gaining 994 yards; they’ve won field position battle in last four games. Giants offense has gained 497-487-480 total yards in last three games, even though they had two OL starters out last week. Philly won last four series games, three of which were in Swamp; Giants are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost 40-17 in LY’s visits, only home win in last six series games.
