BIG AL
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the New York Jets. Yes, the Texans are in a "freefall" with 5 pointspread losses in a row. But consecutive negative performances like that work to create "line value," and here we now get Houston installed as an underdog around a touchdown. And in the NFL, over the past 31 years, teams off 5 straight ATS losses, who also lost their last game straight up by 7+ points, are 74-39 ATS when priced from -2.5 to +10 points (including 9-0 ATS since December 2006). Take Houston.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas. The Cowboys come into this game off a big upset win over their NFC East division rival, the Giants, and look to make it 2 straight under new head coach Jason Garrett. Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams are dreadful off upset wins over division rivals, if they were an underdog of more than 5 points in that upset win, and are now matched up against a .440 (or worse) opponent. Such teams are 44-83-4 ATS since 1980. And Detroit has been one of the best teams ATS this season, with six (or seven) ATS wins over their last 8 games, depending on one's number last week vs. Buffalo. Take the points with Detroit.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville, as the Jags fall into a negative 51-121 ATS system of mine based on their back to back high-scoring wins over Houston (31-24) and Dallas (35-17). Cleveland may be just 3-6 on the season, but it is playing as well as any team in the league over the last month. The Browns blew out New Orleans on the road, and then blew out New England at home, before losing in overtime to the Jets last week. The key for the Browns has been their offense, which averaged less than 15 ppg over their 1st six games, but 28 ppg since. And the Jags are one of the most unreliable home favorites, with just two ATS wins in their last 12 games. Take Cleveland.
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as New York falls into 25-0, 35-16, 69-31 and 108-47 ATS systems of mine based on its big upset loss (33-20) last week to the Cowboys, as 11.5-point favorites. Let's take a look at our 25-0 ATS system. It hasn't lost since October 15, 1984, and what we want to do is play on .450 (or better) teams in division games off upset losses to division rivals by more than 10 points, provided our team is not favored by more than 2 points, and our opponent's win percentage is not greater than .850. And, even more impressive, in the system's set of 25 games, its teams have been an underdog by an average of +4.5 points, yet are 21-4 straight-up, and have covered the spread by an average margin of 13 points per game. in this huge battle for first place in the NFC East, let's take the points with the Giants.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the New York Jets. Yes, the Texans are in a "freefall" with 5 pointspread losses in a row. But consecutive negative performances like that work to create "line value," and here we now get Houston installed as an underdog around a touchdown. And in the NFL, over the past 31 years, teams off 5 straight ATS losses, who also lost their last game straight up by 7+ points, are 74-39 ATS when priced from -2.5 to +10 points (including 9-0 ATS since December 2006). Take Houston.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas. The Cowboys come into this game off a big upset win over their NFC East division rival, the Giants, and look to make it 2 straight under new head coach Jason Garrett. Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams are dreadful off upset wins over division rivals, if they were an underdog of more than 5 points in that upset win, and are now matched up against a .440 (or worse) opponent. Such teams are 44-83-4 ATS since 1980. And Detroit has been one of the best teams ATS this season, with six (or seven) ATS wins over their last 8 games, depending on one's number last week vs. Buffalo. Take the points with Detroit.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville, as the Jags fall into a negative 51-121 ATS system of mine based on their back to back high-scoring wins over Houston (31-24) and Dallas (35-17). Cleveland may be just 3-6 on the season, but it is playing as well as any team in the league over the last month. The Browns blew out New Orleans on the road, and then blew out New England at home, before losing in overtime to the Jets last week. The key for the Browns has been their offense, which averaged less than 15 ppg over their 1st six games, but 28 ppg since. And the Jags are one of the most unreliable home favorites, with just two ATS wins in their last 12 games. Take Cleveland.
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as New York falls into 25-0, 35-16, 69-31 and 108-47 ATS systems of mine based on its big upset loss (33-20) last week to the Cowboys, as 11.5-point favorites. Let's take a look at our 25-0 ATS system. It hasn't lost since October 15, 1984, and what we want to do is play on .450 (or better) teams in division games off upset losses to division rivals by more than 10 points, provided our team is not favored by more than 2 points, and our opponent's win percentage is not greater than .850. And, even more impressive, in the system's set of 25 games, its teams have been an underdog by an average of +4.5 points, yet are 21-4 straight-up, and have covered the spread by an average margin of 13 points per game. in this huge battle for first place in the NFC East, let's take the points with the Giants.
