Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Month-NFL (25-14 CFB/NFL run since Oct 21)
My 20* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Car panthers at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Panthers meet for the second time this year on Sunday. Atlanta won 28-20 at home in Week 2 as Matt Ryan threw three TD passes. Ryan got off to a quick start this season following a superb rookie season, but has come under some recent criticism. Jake Delhomme of Carolina knows that feeling all too well. He had the AWFUL game vs the Cardinals in last year's divisional round of the playoffs and then threw seven INTs as the Panthers opened 0-3 in 2009. It's hard to say he's really improved lately but it is encouraging for Carolina fans that he hasn't thrown an INT in his last two games (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). Getting back to Ryan, he's been sacked eight times in his last three games and has been intercepted five times in his last two road starts. Atlanta has to be happy that RB Michael Turner has run fro 317 yards the last two weeks (8.3 YPC with three TDs), as he had averaged just 67.2 YPG in Atlanta's first six games. However, Atlanta must be somewhat concerned with its 'D,' which has allowed 36.0 PPG and 425.5 YPG in its last two road games. It should be mentioned that the team's last two road opponents were the red-hot Cowboys (winners of four straight) and the Saints (one of two, 8-0 teams). That being said, Delhomme had arguably his best game of the 2009 season in that Week 2 meeting in Atlanta, passing for 308 yards (25-of-41). The Falcons have to be very concerned with stopping Carolina's DeAngelo Williams (Atlanta ranks 24th against the run), who has rushed for 152, 89, 158 and 149 yards his last four games (137 YPG / 6.1 YPC). His ankle is not 100 percent but he was upgraded to proble on the Saturday "injury report," which is BAD NEWS for the Falcons. The Panthers were more than just a little competitive in their Week 2 game in Atlanta, as they rushed for 144 yards, out-gained the Falcons 440-to-371 overall and were actually threatening late. Let's not forget that this Carolina team was 12-4 just last year, including a perfect 8-0 here at home. The Panthers play FIVE of their last eight games at home in 2009 and a second-halt turnaround is NOT out of the question. Revenge works in the NFL when the matchups are right and they are here. Revenge Game of the Month 20* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' MASSIVE MISMATCH-NFL (won L5 NFL weeks!)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked through the 2004 draft and last Sunday, those two high-profile QBs met at Giants Stadium, with Rivers leading a last minute TD drive to lead the Chargers to a 21-20 win over the Giants. There's another reunion, although not as publicized, this weekend when the Bucs travel cross-state to take on the Dolphins. Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman will be making just his second NFL start (FIRST on the road!) and of course, head coach Raheem Morris is the league's youngest head coach, coming off his first-ever win. This is a GREAT spot for the Dolphins. NFL MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Mia Dolphins.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (75% run L5 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys 'limped' out of Denver in Week 4 at 2-2, after losing 17-10. The Cowboys took a 10-0 in that game against the Broncos but then never scored again. Romo threw 42 passes without a TD and with the Giants off to a 4-0 start, Dallas looked to be in BIG TROUBLE! Dallas "got back on track" with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5. but it was hardly an impressive performance. However, Romo did throw two TDs without an INT and WR Austin Miles had his "coming out" performance, catching 10 passes for a Dallas single-game record 250 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner in OT. Dallas had a bye in Week 6 and has returned to win three straight and their four-game winning streak has them at 6-2, one game ahead of the 5-3 Eagles and 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Giants, who have lsuddenly lost FOUR straight. Dallas has averaged 27.8 PPG in its four-game winning streak with Romo completing 62.4% for 306.3 YPG (8 TDs and just 1 INT). The running game is sound (138.6 YPG) with three RDs contributing. Barber has 447 yards (4.6 YPC), Jones 298 yards (7.3 YPC) and Choice 249 yards (4.9 YPC). "America's Team" is back, or so everyone thinks. The Packers on the other hand, look "dead in the water." They are coming off back-to-back losses, a 38-26 loss to the Vikings in Week 8 (2nd loss this year to Favre and the Vikes) and an embarrassing loss last week at Tampa Bay. Green Bay took a 28-17 lead into the 4th quarter last Sunday (despite allowing a blocked punt TD) and then FOLDED, allowing the winless Bucs, who had lost 11 straight games, to score the game's final 21 points! Are the Packers really 'dead?' Truth is, we'll find out here. Green Bay has already all but handed the NFC North title to the Vikings, who own a three-game and have won BOTH meetings with the Packers this season. However, at 4-4, the Packers are still 'alive' for a wild card berth. However, they almost MUST win here! I'd go as far to say that Mike McCarthy (head coach) and Ted Thompson (GM) almost HAVE to win this game. Why can't the Packers win? Rodgers is completing 63.1%, averaging 281.9 YPG with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs (103.3 QB rating). The issue of course, is those 37 sacks (most in the NFL). One must note that the Dallas 'D' has 14 sacks in its four-game winning streak but the team's pass 'D' is very vulnerable, allowing 234 YPG, 59.9% completions with just six INTs (has allowed 13 TDs). In comparison, Romo will face a Green Bay pass 'D' which allows just 54.0% completions (No. 1 in the NFL), and 186 YPG. Dallas 'fever' is running high these days and it's reflected in this line. Note that in Week 8 the 6-1 Vikings came to Lambeau Field and were three-point underdogs. Here, the 6-2 Cowboys are the three-point favorites! Oddsmaker's Error 15* GB Packers.
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My 20* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Car panthers at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Panthers meet for the second time this year on Sunday. Atlanta won 28-20 at home in Week 2 as Matt Ryan threw three TD passes. Ryan got off to a quick start this season following a superb rookie season, but has come under some recent criticism. Jake Delhomme of Carolina knows that feeling all too well. He had the AWFUL game vs the Cardinals in last year's divisional round of the playoffs and then threw seven INTs as the Panthers opened 0-3 in 2009. It's hard to say he's really improved lately but it is encouraging for Carolina fans that he hasn't thrown an INT in his last two games (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). Getting back to Ryan, he's been sacked eight times in his last three games and has been intercepted five times in his last two road starts. Atlanta has to be happy that RB Michael Turner has run fro 317 yards the last two weeks (8.3 YPC with three TDs), as he had averaged just 67.2 YPG in Atlanta's first six games. However, Atlanta must be somewhat concerned with its 'D,' which has allowed 36.0 PPG and 425.5 YPG in its last two road games. It should be mentioned that the team's last two road opponents were the red-hot Cowboys (winners of four straight) and the Saints (one of two, 8-0 teams). That being said, Delhomme had arguably his best game of the 2009 season in that Week 2 meeting in Atlanta, passing for 308 yards (25-of-41). The Falcons have to be very concerned with stopping Carolina's DeAngelo Williams (Atlanta ranks 24th against the run), who has rushed for 152, 89, 158 and 149 yards his last four games (137 YPG / 6.1 YPC). His ankle is not 100 percent but he was upgraded to proble on the Saturday "injury report," which is BAD NEWS for the Falcons. The Panthers were more than just a little competitive in their Week 2 game in Atlanta, as they rushed for 144 yards, out-gained the Falcons 440-to-371 overall and were actually threatening late. Let's not forget that this Carolina team was 12-4 just last year, including a perfect 8-0 here at home. The Panthers play FIVE of their last eight games at home in 2009 and a second-halt turnaround is NOT out of the question. Revenge works in the NFL when the matchups are right and they are here. Revenge Game of the Month 20* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' MASSIVE MISMATCH-NFL (won L5 NFL weeks!)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked through the 2004 draft and last Sunday, those two high-profile QBs met at Giants Stadium, with Rivers leading a last minute TD drive to lead the Chargers to a 21-20 win over the Giants. There's another reunion, although not as publicized, this weekend when the Bucs travel cross-state to take on the Dolphins. Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman will be making just his second NFL start (FIRST on the road!) and of course, head coach Raheem Morris is the league's youngest head coach, coming off his first-ever win. This is a GREAT spot for the Dolphins. NFL MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Mia Dolphins.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (75% run L5 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys 'limped' out of Denver in Week 4 at 2-2, after losing 17-10. The Cowboys took a 10-0 in that game against the Broncos but then never scored again. Romo threw 42 passes without a TD and with the Giants off to a 4-0 start, Dallas looked to be in BIG TROUBLE! Dallas "got back on track" with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5. but it was hardly an impressive performance. However, Romo did throw two TDs without an INT and WR Austin Miles had his "coming out" performance, catching 10 passes for a Dallas single-game record 250 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner in OT. Dallas had a bye in Week 6 and has returned to win three straight and their four-game winning streak has them at 6-2, one game ahead of the 5-3 Eagles and 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Giants, who have lsuddenly lost FOUR straight. Dallas has averaged 27.8 PPG in its four-game winning streak with Romo completing 62.4% for 306.3 YPG (8 TDs and just 1 INT). The running game is sound (138.6 YPG) with three RDs contributing. Barber has 447 yards (4.6 YPC), Jones 298 yards (7.3 YPC) and Choice 249 yards (4.9 YPC). "America's Team" is back, or so everyone thinks. The Packers on the other hand, look "dead in the water." They are coming off back-to-back losses, a 38-26 loss to the Vikings in Week 8 (2nd loss this year to Favre and the Vikes) and an embarrassing loss last week at Tampa Bay. Green Bay took a 28-17 lead into the 4th quarter last Sunday (despite allowing a blocked punt TD) and then FOLDED, allowing the winless Bucs, who had lost 11 straight games, to score the game's final 21 points! Are the Packers really 'dead?' Truth is, we'll find out here. Green Bay has already all but handed the NFC North title to the Vikings, who own a three-game and have won BOTH meetings with the Packers this season. However, at 4-4, the Packers are still 'alive' for a wild card berth. However, they almost MUST win here! I'd go as far to say that Mike McCarthy (head coach) and Ted Thompson (GM) almost HAVE to win this game. Why can't the Packers win? Rodgers is completing 63.1%, averaging 281.9 YPG with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs (103.3 QB rating). The issue of course, is those 37 sacks (most in the NFL). One must note that the Dallas 'D' has 14 sacks in its four-game winning streak but the team's pass 'D' is very vulnerable, allowing 234 YPG, 59.9% completions with just six INTs (has allowed 13 TDs). In comparison, Romo will face a Green Bay pass 'D' which allows just 54.0% completions (No. 1 in the NFL), and 186 YPG. Dallas 'fever' is running high these days and it's reflected in this line. Note that in Week 8 the 6-1 Vikings came to Lambeau Field and were three-point underdogs. Here, the 6-2 Cowboys are the three-point favorites! Oddsmaker's Error 15* GB Packers.
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Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Month-NFL (25-14 CFB/NFL run since Oct 21)
My 20* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Car panthers at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Panthers meet for the second time this year on Sunday. Atlanta won 28-20 at home in Week 2 as Matt Ryan threw three TD passes. Ryan got off to a quick start this season following a superb rookie season, but has come under some recent criticism. Jake Delhomme of Carolina knows that feeling all too well. He had the AWFUL game vs the Cardinals in last year's divisional round of the playoffs and then threw seven INTs as the Panthers opened 0-3 in 2009. It's hard to say he's really improved lately but it is encouraging for Carolina fans that he hasn't thrown an INT in his last two games (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). Getting back to Ryan, he's been sacked eight times in his last three games and has been intercepted five times in his last two road starts. Atlanta has to be happy that RB Michael Turner has run fro 317 yards the last two weeks (8.3 YPC with three TDs), as he had averaged just 67.2 YPG in Atlanta's first six games. However, Atlanta must be somewhat concerned with its 'D,' which has allowed 36.0 PPG and 425.5 YPG in its last two road games. It should be mentioned that the team's last two road opponents were the red-hot Cowboys (winners of four straight) and the Saints (one of two, 8-0 teams). That being said, Delhomme had arguably his best game of the 2009 season in that Week 2 meeting in Atlanta, passing for 308 yards (25-of-41). The Falcons have to be very concerned with stopping Carolina's DeAngelo Williams (Atlanta ranks 24th against the run), who has rushed for 152, 89, 158 and 149 yards his last four games (137 YPG / 6.1 YPC). His ankle is not 100 percent but he was upgraded to proble on the Saturday "injury report," which is BAD NEWS for the Falcons. The Panthers were more than just a little competitive in their Week 2 game in Atlanta, as they rushed for 144 yards, out-gained the Falcons 440-to-371 overall and were actually threatening late. Let's not forget that this Carolina team was 12-4 just last year, including a perfect 8-0 here at home. The Panthers play FIVE of their last eight games at home in 2009 and a second-halt turnaround is NOT out of the question. Revenge works in the NFL when the matchups are right and they are here. Revenge Game of the Month 20* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' MASSIVE MISMATCH-NFL (won L5 NFL weeks!)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked through the 2004 draft and last Sunday, those two high-profile QBs met at Giants Stadium, with Rivers leading a last minute TD drive to lead the Chargers to a 21-20 win over the Giants. There's another reunion, although not as publicized, this weekend when the Bucs travel cross-state to take on the Dolphins. Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman will be making just his second NFL start (FIRST on the road!) and of course, head coach Raheem Morris is the league's youngest head coach, coming off his first-ever win. This is a GREAT spot for the Dolphins. NFL MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Mia Dolphins.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (75% run L5 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys 'limped' out of Denver in Week 4 at 2-2, after losing 17-10. The Cowboys took a 10-0 in that game against the Broncos but then never scored again. Romo threw 42 passes without a TD and with the Giants off to a 4-0 start, Dallas looked to be in BIG TROUBLE! Dallas "got back on track" with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5. but it was hardly an impressive performance. However, Romo did throw two TDs without an INT and WR Austin Miles had his "coming out" performance, catching 10 passes for a Dallas single-game record 250 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner in OT. Dallas had a bye in Week 6 and has returned to win three straight and their four-game winning streak has them at 6-2, one game ahead of the 5-3 Eagles and 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Giants, who have lsuddenly lost FOUR straight. Dallas has averaged 27.8 PPG in its four-game winning streak with Romo completing 62.4% for 306.3 YPG (8 TDs and just 1 INT). The running game is sound (138.6 YPG) with three RDs contributing. Barber has 447 yards (4.6 YPC), Jones 298 yards (7.3 YPC) and Choice 249 yards (4.9 YPC). "America's Team" is back, or so everyone thinks. The Packers on the other hand, look "dead in the water." They are coming off back-to-back losses, a 38-26 loss to the Vikings in Week 8 (2nd loss this year to Favre and the Vikes) and an embarrassing loss last week at Tampa Bay. Green Bay took a 28-17 lead into the 4th quarter last Sunday (despite allowing a blocked punt TD) and then FOLDED, allowing the winless Bucs, who had lost 11 straight games, to score the game's final 21 points! Are the Packers really 'dead?' Truth is, we'll find out here. Green Bay has already all but handed the NFC North title to the Vikings, who own a three-game and have won BOTH meetings with the Packers this season. However, at 4-4, the Packers are still 'alive' for a wild card berth. However, they almost MUST win here! I'd go as far to say that Mike McCarthy (head coach) and Ted Thompson (GM) almost HAVE to win this game. Why can't the Packers win? Rodgers is completing 63.1%, averaging 281.9 YPG with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs (103.3 QB rating). The issue of course, is those 37 sacks (most in the NFL). One must note that the Dallas 'D' has 14 sacks in its four-game winning streak but the team's pass 'D' is very vulnerable, allowing 234 YPG, 59.9% completions with just six INTs (has allowed 13 TDs). In comparison, Romo will face a Green Bay pass 'D' which allows just 54.0% completions (No. 1 in the NFL), and 186 YPG. Dallas 'fever' is running high these days and it's reflected in this line. Note that in Week 8 the 6-1 Vikings came to Lambeau Field and were three-point underdogs. Here, the 6-2 Cowboys are the three-point favorites! Oddsmaker's Error 15* GB Packers.
My 20* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Car panthers at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Panthers meet for the second time this year on Sunday. Atlanta won 28-20 at home in Week 2 as Matt Ryan threw three TD passes. Ryan got off to a quick start this season following a superb rookie season, but has come under some recent criticism. Jake Delhomme of Carolina knows that feeling all too well. He had the AWFUL game vs the Cardinals in last year's divisional round of the playoffs and then threw seven INTs as the Panthers opened 0-3 in 2009. It's hard to say he's really improved lately but it is encouraging for Carolina fans that he hasn't thrown an INT in his last two games (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). Getting back to Ryan, he's been sacked eight times in his last three games and has been intercepted five times in his last two road starts. Atlanta has to be happy that RB Michael Turner has run fro 317 yards the last two weeks (8.3 YPC with three TDs), as he had averaged just 67.2 YPG in Atlanta's first six games. However, Atlanta must be somewhat concerned with its 'D,' which has allowed 36.0 PPG and 425.5 YPG in its last two road games. It should be mentioned that the team's last two road opponents were the red-hot Cowboys (winners of four straight) and the Saints (one of two, 8-0 teams). That being said, Delhomme had arguably his best game of the 2009 season in that Week 2 meeting in Atlanta, passing for 308 yards (25-of-41). The Falcons have to be very concerned with stopping Carolina's DeAngelo Williams (Atlanta ranks 24th against the run), who has rushed for 152, 89, 158 and 149 yards his last four games (137 YPG / 6.1 YPC). His ankle is not 100 percent but he was upgraded to proble on the Saturday "injury report," which is BAD NEWS for the Falcons. The Panthers were more than just a little competitive in their Week 2 game in Atlanta, as they rushed for 144 yards, out-gained the Falcons 440-to-371 overall and were actually threatening late. Let's not forget that this Carolina team was 12-4 just last year, including a perfect 8-0 here at home. The Panthers play FIVE of their last eight games at home in 2009 and a second-halt turnaround is NOT out of the question. Revenge works in the NFL when the matchups are right and they are here. Revenge Game of the Month 20* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' MASSIVE MISMATCH-NFL (won L5 NFL weeks!)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked through the 2004 draft and last Sunday, those two high-profile QBs met at Giants Stadium, with Rivers leading a last minute TD drive to lead the Chargers to a 21-20 win over the Giants. There's another reunion, although not as publicized, this weekend when the Bucs travel cross-state to take on the Dolphins. Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman will be making just his second NFL start (FIRST on the road!) and of course, head coach Raheem Morris is the league's youngest head coach, coming off his first-ever win. This is a GREAT spot for the Dolphins. NFL MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Mia Dolphins.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (75% run L5 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys 'limped' out of Denver in Week 4 at 2-2, after losing 17-10. The Cowboys took a 10-0 in that game against the Broncos but then never scored again. Romo threw 42 passes without a TD and with the Giants off to a 4-0 start, Dallas looked to be in BIG TROUBLE! Dallas "got back on track" with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5. but it was hardly an impressive performance. However, Romo did throw two TDs without an INT and WR Austin Miles had his "coming out" performance, catching 10 passes for a Dallas single-game record 250 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner in OT. Dallas had a bye in Week 6 and has returned to win three straight and their four-game winning streak has them at 6-2, one game ahead of the 5-3 Eagles and 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Giants, who have lsuddenly lost FOUR straight. Dallas has averaged 27.8 PPG in its four-game winning streak with Romo completing 62.4% for 306.3 YPG (8 TDs and just 1 INT). The running game is sound (138.6 YPG) with three RDs contributing. Barber has 447 yards (4.6 YPC), Jones 298 yards (7.3 YPC) and Choice 249 yards (4.9 YPC). "America's Team" is back, or so everyone thinks. The Packers on the other hand, look "dead in the water." They are coming off back-to-back losses, a 38-26 loss to the Vikings in Week 8 (2nd loss this year to Favre and the Vikes) and an embarrassing loss last week at Tampa Bay. Green Bay took a 28-17 lead into the 4th quarter last Sunday (despite allowing a blocked punt TD) and then FOLDED, allowing the winless Bucs, who had lost 11 straight games, to score the game's final 21 points! Are the Packers really 'dead?' Truth is, we'll find out here. Green Bay has already all but handed the NFC North title to the Vikings, who own a three-game and have won BOTH meetings with the Packers this season. However, at 4-4, the Packers are still 'alive' for a wild card berth. However, they almost MUST win here! I'd go as far to say that Mike McCarthy (head coach) and Ted Thompson (GM) almost HAVE to win this game. Why can't the Packers win? Rodgers is completing 63.1%, averaging 281.9 YPG with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs (103.3 QB rating). The issue of course, is those 37 sacks (most in the NFL). One must note that the Dallas 'D' has 14 sacks in its four-game winning streak but the team's pass 'D' is very vulnerable, allowing 234 YPG, 59.9% completions with just six INTs (has allowed 13 TDs). In comparison, Romo will face a Green Bay pass 'D' which allows just 54.0% completions (No. 1 in the NFL), and 186 YPG. Dallas 'fever' is running high these days and it's reflected in this line. Note that in Week 8 the 6-1 Vikings came to Lambeau Field and were three-point underdogs. Here, the 6-2 Cowboys are the three-point favorites! Oddsmaker's Error 15* GB Packers.
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, November 15, 2009
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NFL FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR
216 NY JETS -6.5 1:00 EST
paid and confirmed by me
Date: Sunday, November 15, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: TWO WORDS...LATE STEAM!!! That is what I have for you today! This is so BIG it can only be rated as my NFL FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR! and you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $25 and you will pay only after you WIN! We are currently on a 62-21 run with all selections and we are 32-13 in College and Pro Football this year! WE ARE RED HOT!! GET THIS WINNER! 11/15/2009
NFL FOOTBALL LATE STEAM PLAY OF THE YEAR
216 NY JETS -6.5 1:00 EST
paid and confirmed by me
