NORM HITZGES
NFL
Double Plays
·******** Philadelphia -3 vs Washington
·******** Houston +2 vs Jacksonville
Single Plays
·******** Tennessee -1.5 vs Miami
·******** Minnesota -1 vs Chicago
·******** Detroit +3 vs Buffalo
·******** Cleveland +3 vs NY Jets
·******** Chicago/Minnesota Over 43
·********New England/Pitt Over 44.5
NFL
Double Plays
·******** Philadelphia -3 vs Washington
·******** Houston +2 vs Jacksonville
Single Plays
·******** Tennessee -1.5 vs Miami
·******** Minnesota -1 vs Chicago
·******** Detroit +3 vs Buffalo
·******** Cleveland +3 vs NY Jets
·******** Chicago/Minnesota Over 43
·********New England/Pitt Over 44.5
Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-9, 216)
The Lakers lost their first game of the season on Thursday and it did not take a genius to figure out how it happened. Denver went small and went with speed; as a result, the Nuggets overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter and prevailed 118-112.
"With a small lineup, they opened the floor and were in more of an attack mode," Lakers forward Pau Gasol explained.
"The second unit went really small," added Denver head coach George Karl. "The speed beat the big guys and even though (the Lakers) got a lot of offensive rebounds, it got to be a dominating problem."
The Suns are likely to employ the same tactics on Sunday, especially since L.A.’s Andrew Bynum is still out in the aftermath of knee surgery. Until Bynum returns, opponents should be able to go with small lineups without giving up too much in the paint.
Pick: Suns +9
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks (-11, 205)
Just 10 games in, it has already been a tale of two seasons for the Hawks. They won their first six games but have since lost four in a row. They will look to avoid a fate of five consecutive losses that has not been suffered by Atlanta in two and half years.
In order to prevent it, the Hawks will have to beat a Minnesota team that got a 30-30 performance from Kevin Love in Friday’s 112-103 win over the New York Knicks. Love’s 31-point, 31-rebound outing was the first 30-30 game since Moses Malone did it in 1982.
The Hawks have lost three straight games at home and they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven with home-court “advantage” (or lack thereof). They are coming off a Friday loss the Jazz in which they missed 10 of 21 free throws and surrendered double-digit offensive rebounds for a seventh consecutive game.
Pick: Timberwolves +11
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-9, 216)
The Lakers lost their first game of the season on Thursday and it did not take a genius to figure out how it happened. Denver went small and went with speed; as a result, the Nuggets overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter and prevailed 118-112.
"With a small lineup, they opened the floor and were in more of an attack mode," Lakers forward Pau Gasol explained.
"The second unit went really small," added Denver head coach George Karl. "The speed beat the big guys and even though (the Lakers) got a lot of offensive rebounds, it got to be a dominating problem."
The Suns are likely to employ the same tactics on Sunday, especially since L.A.’s Andrew Bynum is still out in the aftermath of knee surgery. Until Bynum returns, opponents should be able to go with small lineups without giving up too much in the paint.
Pick: Suns +9
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks (-11, 205)
Just 10 games in, it has already been a tale of two seasons for the Hawks. They won their first six games but have since lost four in a row. They will look to avoid a fate of five consecutive losses that has not been suffered by Atlanta in two and half years.
In order to prevent it, the Hawks will have to beat a Minnesota team that got a 30-30 performance from Kevin Love in Friday’s 112-103 win over the New York Knicks. Love’s 31-point, 31-rebound outing was the first 30-30 game since Moses Malone did it in 1982.
The Hawks have lost three straight games at home and they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven with home-court “advantage” (or lack thereof). They are coming off a Friday loss the Jazz in which they missed 10 of 21 free throws and surrendered double-digit offensive rebounds for a seventh consecutive game.
Pick: Timberwolves +11
College Funds: Today's best NCAAB bets
Liberty Flames at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Life after Luke began Friday for the Fighting Irish, who are playing without graduated star center Luke Harangody for the first time in four seasons.
Notre Dame looked good in its opening game of the schedule, thumping Georgia Southern 91-68 and getting a solid effort from new go-to guy, Ben Hansbrough. The 6-foot-3 guard scored 20 points including going 4 for 7 from beyond the arc.
“Luke Harangody’s got his number hanging up there (in Notre Dame’s ring of honor in Purcell Pavilion), but you know, they are gone now,” Hansbrough said about the Irish’s departed players before Friday’s game. “We have to learn how to win without those guys. We will see what happens come our first game.”
Notre Dame used the opening game of the season to juggle lineup and get a solid feel for their reserves, who chipped in with 48 points off the bench. Sophomore forward Jack Cooley led all reserves with 11 points and six rebounds including a nasty two-hand flush in the first half.
“That play has run through my mind so many times before that,” Cooley, who struggled in the preseason, told the South Bend Tribune. “I was just so pumped. All that energy just came out of me at one time.
“Last game, I couldn't sleep that well. Tonight I'll go home, take a nice little nap.”
Pick: Notre Dame
Princeton Tigers at Duke Blue Devils (-23)
The Tigers won’t have much time to celebrate their season-opening win over Rutgers Friday night. Princeton was up and on a plane to Durham Saturday, with the defending national champion Duke Blue Devils on the calendar Sunday.
”I think we’ll definitely be able to tell if we’re ready to compete or not,” junior captain Patrick Saunders told the Princeton Packet about the team’s daunting non-conference slate. “Whether we win or lose, I think we’ll be able to tell whether we brought our effort and we’re ready to compete, which is the most important thing.”
Princeton, which is favored to win the Ivy League brought back its top five scorers from last season’s 22-9 team. The Tigers are a perimeter-orientated squad that can break games open with their outside shooting.
They went 9 for 22 from the 3-point line Friday and finished second in 3-point shooting in the conference last season, behind Cornell – the top 3-point team in the country. That touch from beyond the arc should allow them to at least keep pace with oddsmakers, who will pile the points on the Tigers in Cameron Indoor Stadium Sunday night.
Liberty Flames at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Life after Luke began Friday for the Fighting Irish, who are playing without graduated star center Luke Harangody for the first time in four seasons.
Notre Dame looked good in its opening game of the schedule, thumping Georgia Southern 91-68 and getting a solid effort from new go-to guy, Ben Hansbrough. The 6-foot-3 guard scored 20 points including going 4 for 7 from beyond the arc.
“Luke Harangody’s got his number hanging up there (in Notre Dame’s ring of honor in Purcell Pavilion), but you know, they are gone now,” Hansbrough said about the Irish’s departed players before Friday’s game. “We have to learn how to win without those guys. We will see what happens come our first game.”
Notre Dame used the opening game of the season to juggle lineup and get a solid feel for their reserves, who chipped in with 48 points off the bench. Sophomore forward Jack Cooley led all reserves with 11 points and six rebounds including a nasty two-hand flush in the first half.
“That play has run through my mind so many times before that,” Cooley, who struggled in the preseason, told the South Bend Tribune. “I was just so pumped. All that energy just came out of me at one time.
“Last game, I couldn't sleep that well. Tonight I'll go home, take a nice little nap.”
Pick: Notre Dame
Princeton Tigers at Duke Blue Devils (-23)
The Tigers won’t have much time to celebrate their season-opening win over Rutgers Friday night. Princeton was up and on a plane to Durham Saturday, with the defending national champion Duke Blue Devils on the calendar Sunday.
”I think we’ll definitely be able to tell if we’re ready to compete or not,” junior captain Patrick Saunders told the Princeton Packet about the team’s daunting non-conference slate. “Whether we win or lose, I think we’ll be able to tell whether we brought our effort and we’re ready to compete, which is the most important thing.”
Princeton, which is favored to win the Ivy League brought back its top five scorers from last season’s 22-9 team. The Tigers are a perimeter-orientated squad that can break games open with their outside shooting.
They went 9 for 22 from the 3-point line Friday and finished second in 3-point shooting in the conference last season, behind Cornell – the top 3-point team in the country. That touch from beyond the arc should allow them to at least keep pace with oddsmakers, who will pile the points on the Tigers in Cameron Indoor Stadium Sunday night.
Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks (-154,5.5)
The Ducks started the season 0-3, allowing at least 40 shots in each of those three losses. Since then, they are 10-4-1 and have won six straight following Friday night’s 4-2 win over Dallas.
A big reason for that is a revamped penalty-killing unit, coached up by new assistant Mike Foligno. After a dismal start to the year, Anaheim’s penalty-killing percentage is up to 83.5 percent, good for a respectable 16th in the NHL.
The Ducks have enjoyed 14 consecutive kills and they are 20 for 22 during their six-game surge.
"The players have done a better job of controlling the pucks on their clears (down the ice)," said head coach Randy Carlyle said. "We made some adjustments. We changed some things which we were doing historically. Right now it's been one of the areas that over the last three or four games has helped us get points."
Pick: Ducks
Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning (-154, 5.5)
Neither team is playing well at the moment. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six overall and Minnesota is 1-4 in its last five games against the Eastern Conference, 1-9 against Southeast Division opponents.
But things are especially bad for the Lightning. Forwards Vincent Lecavalier (fractured knuckle), Simon Gagne (neck), and Steve Downie (neck) are all injured. On Friday the team had to call up Marc-Antoine Pouliot and Johan Harju from the AHL in order to compensate.
"The problem isn't we're missing guys in terms of numbers," lamented head coach Guy Boucher. "The problem is you're asking guys to play above what they normally can. It's okay for the short term, but after a while what's happening is we're going to have the same guys on the power play and penalty kill. We're going to drain everybody."
Based on recent results, it’s safe to say that has already happened.
Pick: Wild
Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks (-154,5.5)
The Ducks started the season 0-3, allowing at least 40 shots in each of those three losses. Since then, they are 10-4-1 and have won six straight following Friday night’s 4-2 win over Dallas.
A big reason for that is a revamped penalty-killing unit, coached up by new assistant Mike Foligno. After a dismal start to the year, Anaheim’s penalty-killing percentage is up to 83.5 percent, good for a respectable 16th in the NHL.
The Ducks have enjoyed 14 consecutive kills and they are 20 for 22 during their six-game surge.
"The players have done a better job of controlling the pucks on their clears (down the ice)," said head coach Randy Carlyle said. "We made some adjustments. We changed some things which we were doing historically. Right now it's been one of the areas that over the last three or four games has helped us get points."
Pick: Ducks
Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning (-154, 5.5)
Neither team is playing well at the moment. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six overall and Minnesota is 1-4 in its last five games against the Eastern Conference, 1-9 against Southeast Division opponents.
But things are especially bad for the Lightning. Forwards Vincent Lecavalier (fractured knuckle), Simon Gagne (neck), and Steve Downie (neck) are all injured. On Friday the team had to call up Marc-Antoine Pouliot and Johan Harju from the AHL in order to compensate.
"The problem isn't we're missing guys in terms of numbers," lamented head coach Guy Boucher. "The problem is you're asking guys to play above what they normally can. It's okay for the short term, but after a while what's happening is we're going to have the same guys on the power play and penalty kill. We're going to drain everybody."
Based on recent results, it’s safe to say that has already happened.
Pick: Wild
Bettors’ best friend: Sunday’s wagering tips
Weather report
Vikings at Bears: A 24 mph is expected to whip through Soldier Field on Sunday.
Lions at Bills: There is a 30 percent chance of rain and a 13 mph wind is expected.
Jets at Browns: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a 12 mph wind is expected.
Patriots at Steelers: There is a 30 percent chance of rain.
Eagles at Redskins: There is just a 10 percent chance of rain.
Who's hot
The over is 9-1 in the Atlanta Thrashers' last 10 overall.
The Anaheim Ducks are 6-0 in their last six overall.
The Detroit Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 6-1 in the Carolina Panthers' last seven overall.
The over is 6-1 in the Arizona Cardinals' last seven overall.
Who's not
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-5 in their last six overall.
The Atlanta Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.
The New York Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
The Dallas Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.
The Denver Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Key stat
154.6 – The Broncos have been absolutely awful this season (they are 2-6 and have lost four in a row). Their run defense has been especially bad, giving up 154.6 yards per game—second worst in the entire NFL. On Sunday, the unit is going up a Kansas City rushing attack that ranks No. 1 in the league at 179.6 yards per outing.
Injuries that shouldn't be overlooked
Donovan McNabb may be catching a break as he prepares to host his former team on Monday night. The Eagles will be without rookie safety Nate Allen (who has started all eight games) and cornerback Ellis Hobbs, who missed last week's win over Indy. Allen sustained a neck injury last week and Hobbs is out with a hip problem. McNabb, who is 11th in the NFL with 246.4 passing yards per game, will look to take advantage.
Biggest game on the slate
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 45)
Notable quotable
"I don't think anybody would've predicted this scenario happening this way. It's unfortunate. I don't think anyone would have predicted this type of a scenario. The fact is that this is what's happened, and we need to go forward and accept the challenges ahead. That starts with the Giants." – Dallas interim head coach Jason Garrett, who took over for Wade Phillips and opens his tenure with the 1-7 Cowboys against the Giants on Sunday.
Tips and notes
The Detroit Lions have 24 sacks this season (tied for fifth best in the NFL and just four shy of Green Bay’s league-leading 28), including seven against the Redskins on October 31. Buffalo, winless at 0-8, is bracing for its opponent’s defensive front. “They're creating a ton of pressure,” noted head coach Chan Gailey. “They're doing a great job. They get pressure with four guys, which—in this league—is hard to do. They do a good job of stuffing the run, and I think the coaching staff there has done a great job of adjusting as the season has gone on.”
Golden State’s David Lee, who went for 28 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-117 win over the Knicks on Wednesday, is out indefinitely after having minor surgery for an infection in his elbow. Lee is expected to miss at least one week, and his status will be updated at the end of that time frame. A fragment of Wilson Chandler’s tooth ended up in Lee’s left elbow after a violent collision.
The Capitals have played 16 games and they are an awesome 12-4 despite giving up the first goal in 12 of those 16 contests. However, in nine of those 12 the Caps went on to win anyway. That’s in large part due to an electric offense that has produced 58 goals, most in the NHL this season. “Our team only plays it one way, and that's to get aggressive both offensively and defensively,” said forward Brooks Laich. This early-game flaw could come back to haunt Washington against playoff teams, but it might not at home against the 7-7-3 Thrashers on Sunday.
Weather report
Vikings at Bears: A 24 mph is expected to whip through Soldier Field on Sunday.
Lions at Bills: There is a 30 percent chance of rain and a 13 mph wind is expected.
Jets at Browns: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a 12 mph wind is expected.
Patriots at Steelers: There is a 30 percent chance of rain.
Eagles at Redskins: There is just a 10 percent chance of rain.
Who's hot
The over is 9-1 in the Atlanta Thrashers' last 10 overall.
The Anaheim Ducks are 6-0 in their last six overall.
The Detroit Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 6-1 in the Carolina Panthers' last seven overall.
The over is 6-1 in the Arizona Cardinals' last seven overall.
Who's not
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-5 in their last six overall.
The Atlanta Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.
The New York Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
The Dallas Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall.
The Denver Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Key stat
154.6 – The Broncos have been absolutely awful this season (they are 2-6 and have lost four in a row). Their run defense has been especially bad, giving up 154.6 yards per game—second worst in the entire NFL. On Sunday, the unit is going up a Kansas City rushing attack that ranks No. 1 in the league at 179.6 yards per outing.
Injuries that shouldn't be overlooked
Donovan McNabb may be catching a break as he prepares to host his former team on Monday night. The Eagles will be without rookie safety Nate Allen (who has started all eight games) and cornerback Ellis Hobbs, who missed last week's win over Indy. Allen sustained a neck injury last week and Hobbs is out with a hip problem. McNabb, who is 11th in the NFL with 246.4 passing yards per game, will look to take advantage.
Biggest game on the slate
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 45)
Notable quotable
"I don't think anybody would've predicted this scenario happening this way. It's unfortunate. I don't think anyone would have predicted this type of a scenario. The fact is that this is what's happened, and we need to go forward and accept the challenges ahead. That starts with the Giants." – Dallas interim head coach Jason Garrett, who took over for Wade Phillips and opens his tenure with the 1-7 Cowboys against the Giants on Sunday.
Tips and notes
The Detroit Lions have 24 sacks this season (tied for fifth best in the NFL and just four shy of Green Bay’s league-leading 28), including seven against the Redskins on October 31. Buffalo, winless at 0-8, is bracing for its opponent’s defensive front. “They're creating a ton of pressure,” noted head coach Chan Gailey. “They're doing a great job. They get pressure with four guys, which—in this league—is hard to do. They do a good job of stuffing the run, and I think the coaching staff there has done a great job of adjusting as the season has gone on.”
Golden State’s David Lee, who went for 28 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-117 win over the Knicks on Wednesday, is out indefinitely after having minor surgery for an infection in his elbow. Lee is expected to miss at least one week, and his status will be updated at the end of that time frame. A fragment of Wilson Chandler’s tooth ended up in Lee’s left elbow after a violent collision.
The Capitals have played 16 games and they are an awesome 12-4 despite giving up the first goal in 12 of those 16 contests. However, in nine of those 12 the Caps went on to win anyway. That’s in large part due to an electric offense that has produced 58 goals, most in the NHL this season. “Our team only plays it one way, and that's to get aggressive both offensively and defensively,” said forward Brooks Laich. This early-game flaw could come back to haunt Washington against playoff teams, but it might not at home against the 7-7-3 Thrashers on Sunday.
HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-November 14th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************
[215] Cincinnati |15*|+8|B+0|CBS|1:00 pm EST
[220] Miami |5*|+110 ML|B+0|CBS|1:00 pm EST
[230] Denver |5*|+100 ML|B+0|CBS|4:05 pm EST
[235] Dallas |5*|+14|B+0|FOX|4:15 pm EST
note*
This is the "ME (Matchup Edge) SYSTEM"
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************
[215] Cincinnati |15*|+8|B+0|CBS|1:00 pm EST
[220] Miami |5*|+110 ML|B+0|CBS|1:00 pm EST
[230] Denver |5*|+100 ML|B+0|CBS|4:05 pm EST
[235] Dallas |5*|+14|B+0|FOX|4:15 pm EST
note*
This is the "ME (Matchup Edge) SYSTEM"
Statsystems nfl report 11/14
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/14
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- NFL *****
*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #215 BENGALS (2-6) @ #216 COLTS (5-3) - Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.
• #217 TEXANS (4-4) @ #218 JAGUARS (4-4) - Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.
• #219 TITANS (5-3) @ #220 DOLPHINS (5-3) - Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.
• #221 VIKINGS (3-5) @ #222 BEARS (5-3) - Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.
• #223 LIONS (2-6) @ #224 BILLS (0-8) - Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.
• #225 JETS (6-2) @ #226 BROWNS (3-5) - Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.
• #227 PANTHERS (1-7) @ #228 BUCCANEERS (5-3) - NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.
• #229 CHIEFS (5-3) @ #230 BRONCOS (2-6) - Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.
• #231 RAMS (4-4) @ #232 49ERS (2-6) - Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.
• #233 SEAHAWKS (4-4) @ #234 CARDINALS (3-5) - Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.
• #235 COWBOYS (1-7) @ #236 GIANTS (6-2) - Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (14 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.
• #237 PATRIOTS (6-2) @ #238 STEELERS (6-2) - No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.
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*** SUNDAY'S - 2-MINUTE DRILL ***
---------------------------------------------
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
--Cincinnati: 8-0 dogs > 6 pts vs opp off SU loss… 6-1 Game Nine... 4-1 OVER off Monday gm... INDIANAPOLIS NOV: 2-9 HF’s vs opp off div… 12-2 O/U Game Nine... 3-1-1 OVER home vs opp off Monday.
--Houston 7-0 A off non div & BB SUATS losses… 4-1 Game Nine... 1-3 UNDER away vs opp off Bye... JACKSONVILLE 2-6 aft scoring 35 > pts vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 1-4 UNDER after Bye Week.
--Tennessee 1-6 ATS L7 vs AFC East… 3-1 O/U Game Nine... 7-2 OVER vs AFC East... MIAMI 7-0 off DD ATS loss w/ rev vs opp off SU loss... 4-1 OVER vs AFC South.
--Minnesota 9-1 ATS < .500 favs/dogs 2 < pts vs div opp... 7-0 OVER vs div off SU W but ATS L... CHICAGO SERIES: 6-1 L7 H… 1-11 off BB fav roles vs < .500 div opp... 4-0 OVER L4 home vs Minn.
--Detroit SERIES: 4-1 L5… 2-14 A vs non div opp off BB SU losses... 8-1 OVER away vs AFC... BUFFALO 1-6 ATS < .500 off NFC vs <. 500 off SU loss... 5-1 OVER in 2nd of BB HG’s vs NFC.
--Ny Jets 2-8 ATS off non div vs non div off SU win 20 > pts... 1-6 UNDER after Lions... CLEVELAND SERIES: 3-1 L4… 5-0 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU win... 1-4 UNDER before Jaguars.
--Carolina SERIES: 3-1 L4… 14-2 vs div opp off SU NFC loss... 5-1 OVER L6 away vs Tampa Bay... TAMPA BAY 2-7 vs .333 < opp… MORRIS: 1-9-1 H (0-3-1 this year)... 6-2 OVER after Falcons.
--Kansas City SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 L4 A… 2-10 SU Game Nine... 1-4 UNDER away vs off off Bye... DENVER 4-16 before Chargers… 6-1 O/U Game Nine... 1-4 UNDER after Bye Week.
--St. Louis 8-1 off DD SU non div win… 6-1 w/ rest vs conf opp... 1-4 UNDER away vs div... S FRANCISCO 0-6 vs opp w/ rest… NOV: 3-17 H vs opp w/ rev... 3-10 UNDER home vs div.
--Seattle 7-0 vs < .500 div opp w/ rev Game 3 >... 6-0 OVER in 2nd meeting vs Arizona... ARIZONA NOV: 2-11 vs opp off BB ATS losses… 4-1 O/U Game Nine... 6-1 OVER home w/ div rev.
--Dallas 0-8 dogs vs .750 > opp off BB SUATS wins... 3-9 UNDER dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s... NY GIANTS SERIES: 5-1 L6… 6-1 bef Eagles… 1-6 Game Nine... 3-10 UNDER before Eagles.
--New England SERIES: 7-2 L9 / 5-1 L6 A… 1-5 O/U Game Nine... 6-1 OVER away vs AFC North... PITTSBURGH 1-10 H off Monday… NOV: 2-9 vs opp off fav role w/ rev... 5-0 OVER HF’s < 7 off Monday gm.
• WEEK 10 BYES: GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS, OAKLAND, and SAN DIEGO
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
-------------------------------------------
--TENNESSEE: Is 0-14 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since December 19, 2004 when they threw for at least 245 yards last game with a total of at least 38.
--NEW ENGLAND: Is 14-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since November 2002 when they trailed after the first quarter last game and controlled the ball less than their opponent.
--NY GIANTS: Are 13-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since December 10, 2006 when they covered last week or came within three points of it and had 0 or 1 sacks
--CLEVELAND: Is 11-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 when they scored more than expected last game and the total was at least 42.5.
--DENVER: Is 0-10 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since January 22, 2006 at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.
--TAMPA BAY: Is 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date.
--MINNESOTA: Is 11-0-1 OU (9.4 ppg) since October 30, 2005 on the road when they lost their last two road games.
--SAN FRANCISCO: Is 10-0-1 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 the week after their bye.
__________________________________________________ _
***** 'THE MAN CONTINUES TO SIZZLE! *****
---------------------------------------------------------
Once again as promised, Stan cashed with his 'Triple Perfect Play' on Friday night's NBA card (Portland/Oklahoma City Over 195) that was supported with Three 100% Perfect Awesome Winning Angles inside the same game.
--Result: Russell Westbrook finished with a career- high 36 points and Kevin Durant added 34, as the Oklahoma City Thunder edged the Portland Trail Blazers, 110-108, at Oklahoma City Arena. Serge Ibaka, Nenad Krstic and James Harden each finished with 12 points for Oklahoma City, which has won three of four. Extending 'The Man's winning streak to 9-2, 81.8% in his last eleven Top NBA *5-Star releases!
Meanwhile, Thursday saw Stan nail his 'Incredible Super Situational System Play' (UCONN +6) that has gone 18-0 ATS! PLAY AGAINST - Any rested CFB road team in a regular season weekday game if they are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins!
By taking teams out of their normal body-clock habit of playing games on weekends, and interrupting their momentum by putting them on the road with rest off a pair of satisfying wins and covers, these teams are just 7-26 ATS. To make matters worse, bring their opponent in off a win and they slip to 3-18 ATS. And if we were to Play Against' a team that won its last game by 52 or less points and is facing an opponent off a win of five or more points. ATS W-L Record: 0-18, Since 1990.
--Result: Zach Frazer threw two scores as the Connecticut Huskies took down the Pittsburgh Panthers, 30-28, in a Big East battle. Frazer was just 9-for-20 for 100 yards and an interception and he tossed touchdowns to Isiah Moore and Kashif Moore for the Huskies who have won their past two games. Improving Stan's 2010 CFB mark to 22-8-1, 73.3%!
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/14
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- NFL *****
*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #215 BENGALS (2-6) @ #216 COLTS (5-3) - Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.
• #217 TEXANS (4-4) @ #218 JAGUARS (4-4) - Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.
• #219 TITANS (5-3) @ #220 DOLPHINS (5-3) - Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.
• #221 VIKINGS (3-5) @ #222 BEARS (5-3) - Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.
• #223 LIONS (2-6) @ #224 BILLS (0-8) - Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.
• #225 JETS (6-2) @ #226 BROWNS (3-5) - Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.
• #227 PANTHERS (1-7) @ #228 BUCCANEERS (5-3) - NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.
• #229 CHIEFS (5-3) @ #230 BRONCOS (2-6) - Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.
• #231 RAMS (4-4) @ #232 49ERS (2-6) - Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.
• #233 SEAHAWKS (4-4) @ #234 CARDINALS (3-5) - Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.
• #235 COWBOYS (1-7) @ #236 GIANTS (6-2) - Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (14 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.
• #237 PATRIOTS (6-2) @ #238 STEELERS (6-2) - No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.
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*** SUNDAY'S - 2-MINUTE DRILL ***
---------------------------------------------
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
--Cincinnati: 8-0 dogs > 6 pts vs opp off SU loss… 6-1 Game Nine... 4-1 OVER off Monday gm... INDIANAPOLIS NOV: 2-9 HF’s vs opp off div… 12-2 O/U Game Nine... 3-1-1 OVER home vs opp off Monday.
--Houston 7-0 A off non div & BB SUATS losses… 4-1 Game Nine... 1-3 UNDER away vs opp off Bye... JACKSONVILLE 2-6 aft scoring 35 > pts vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 1-4 UNDER after Bye Week.
--Tennessee 1-6 ATS L7 vs AFC East… 3-1 O/U Game Nine... 7-2 OVER vs AFC East... MIAMI 7-0 off DD ATS loss w/ rev vs opp off SU loss... 4-1 OVER vs AFC South.
--Minnesota 9-1 ATS < .500 favs/dogs 2 < pts vs div opp... 7-0 OVER vs div off SU W but ATS L... CHICAGO SERIES: 6-1 L7 H… 1-11 off BB fav roles vs < .500 div opp... 4-0 OVER L4 home vs Minn.
--Detroit SERIES: 4-1 L5… 2-14 A vs non div opp off BB SU losses... 8-1 OVER away vs AFC... BUFFALO 1-6 ATS < .500 off NFC vs <. 500 off SU loss... 5-1 OVER in 2nd of BB HG’s vs NFC.
--Ny Jets 2-8 ATS off non div vs non div off SU win 20 > pts... 1-6 UNDER after Lions... CLEVELAND SERIES: 3-1 L4… 5-0 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU win... 1-4 UNDER before Jaguars.
--Carolina SERIES: 3-1 L4… 14-2 vs div opp off SU NFC loss... 5-1 OVER L6 away vs Tampa Bay... TAMPA BAY 2-7 vs .333 < opp… MORRIS: 1-9-1 H (0-3-1 this year)... 6-2 OVER after Falcons.
--Kansas City SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 L4 A… 2-10 SU Game Nine... 1-4 UNDER away vs off off Bye... DENVER 4-16 before Chargers… 6-1 O/U Game Nine... 1-4 UNDER after Bye Week.
--St. Louis 8-1 off DD SU non div win… 6-1 w/ rest vs conf opp... 1-4 UNDER away vs div... S FRANCISCO 0-6 vs opp w/ rest… NOV: 3-17 H vs opp w/ rev... 3-10 UNDER home vs div.
--Seattle 7-0 vs < .500 div opp w/ rev Game 3 >... 6-0 OVER in 2nd meeting vs Arizona... ARIZONA NOV: 2-11 vs opp off BB ATS losses… 4-1 O/U Game Nine... 6-1 OVER home w/ div rev.
--Dallas 0-8 dogs vs .750 > opp off BB SUATS wins... 3-9 UNDER dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s... NY GIANTS SERIES: 5-1 L6… 6-1 bef Eagles… 1-6 Game Nine... 3-10 UNDER before Eagles.
--New England SERIES: 7-2 L9 / 5-1 L6 A… 1-5 O/U Game Nine... 6-1 OVER away vs AFC North... PITTSBURGH 1-10 H off Monday… NOV: 2-9 vs opp off fav role w/ rev... 5-0 OVER HF’s < 7 off Monday gm.
• WEEK 10 BYES: GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS, OAKLAND, and SAN DIEGO
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
-------------------------------------------
--TENNESSEE: Is 0-14 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since December 19, 2004 when they threw for at least 245 yards last game with a total of at least 38.
--NEW ENGLAND: Is 14-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since November 2002 when they trailed after the first quarter last game and controlled the ball less than their opponent.
--NY GIANTS: Are 13-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since December 10, 2006 when they covered last week or came within three points of it and had 0 or 1 sacks
--CLEVELAND: Is 11-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 when they scored more than expected last game and the total was at least 42.5.
--DENVER: Is 0-10 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since January 22, 2006 at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.
--TAMPA BAY: Is 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date.
--MINNESOTA: Is 11-0-1 OU (9.4 ppg) since October 30, 2005 on the road when they lost their last two road games.
--SAN FRANCISCO: Is 10-0-1 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 the week after their bye.
__________________________________________________ _
***** 'THE MAN CONTINUES TO SIZZLE! *****
---------------------------------------------------------
Once again as promised, Stan cashed with his 'Triple Perfect Play' on Friday night's NBA card (Portland/Oklahoma City Over 195) that was supported with Three 100% Perfect Awesome Winning Angles inside the same game.
--Result: Russell Westbrook finished with a career- high 36 points and Kevin Durant added 34, as the Oklahoma City Thunder edged the Portland Trail Blazers, 110-108, at Oklahoma City Arena. Serge Ibaka, Nenad Krstic and James Harden each finished with 12 points for Oklahoma City, which has won three of four. Extending 'The Man's winning streak to 9-2, 81.8% in his last eleven Top NBA *5-Star releases!
Meanwhile, Thursday saw Stan nail his 'Incredible Super Situational System Play' (UCONN +6) that has gone 18-0 ATS! PLAY AGAINST - Any rested CFB road team in a regular season weekday game if they are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins!
By taking teams out of their normal body-clock habit of playing games on weekends, and interrupting their momentum by putting them on the road with rest off a pair of satisfying wins and covers, these teams are just 7-26 ATS. To make matters worse, bring their opponent in off a win and they slip to 3-18 ATS. And if we were to Play Against' a team that won its last game by 52 or less points and is facing an opponent off a win of five or more points. ATS W-L Record: 0-18, Since 1990.
--Result: Zach Frazer threw two scores as the Connecticut Huskies took down the Pittsburgh Panthers, 30-28, in a Big East battle. Frazer was just 9-for-20 for 100 yards and an interception and he tossed touchdowns to Isiah Moore and Kashif Moore for the Huskies who have won their past two games. Improving Stan's 2010 CFB mark to 22-8-1, 73.3%!
STATSYSTEMS NFL REPORT 11/14 cont.
• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------
4* MINNESOTA -1 - (86.2%)
4* TENNESSEE -2 - (85.7%)
4* ST LOUIS +6 - (85.7%)
4* DENVER +1 - (84.4%)
4* DETROIT +3 - (82.9%)
4* CAROLINA +7 - (81.8%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(25-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-12 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.2
The average score in these games was: Team 26.8, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = +6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (62.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (62-29).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (TENNESSEE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (89-77).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (89-77).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DENVER) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-21 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 20.6, Opponent 23.5 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (31.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (68-40).
--PLAY ON - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 17.5 (Average point differential = +5.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (35.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
--PLAY ON - Any team (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(36-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-29 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.8
The average score in these games was: Team 18.3, Opponent 21.1 (Average point differential = -2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-45).
__________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
4* SEATTLE/ARIZONA OVER 41.5 - (82.9%)
4* CAROLINA/TAMPA BAY OVER 37 - (82.9%)
3* HOUSTON/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 50 - (82.4%)
3* NY JETS/CLEVELAND OVER 37.5 - (81.4%)
3* DALLAS/NY GIANTS UNDER 45.5 - (74.6%)
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (ARIZONA) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.4
The average score in these games was: Team 26.3, Opponent 25.9 (Total points scored = 52.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-37).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.4
The average score in these games was: Team 26.3, Opponent 25.9 (Total points scored = 52.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-37).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more, after the first month of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.6, Opponent 15.4 (Total points scored = 35.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game.
(35-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.4%, +26.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 38.5
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 23.3 (Total points scored = 47.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (51.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (52-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (148-133).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (NY GIANTS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, in weeks 10 through 13.
(44-15 since 1983.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.6
The average score in these games was: Team 21, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (41.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
____________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------
5* BUFFALO -1.5 - (88.5%)
4* DENVER +1 - (85.7%)
3* ARIZONA -1.5 - (81.2%)
3* NY GIANTS -7.5 - (77.4%)
3* CLEVELAND +1.5 - (74.6%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games.
(23-3 since 1983.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 4.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 9.6 (Average first half point differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (43-23).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (102-82).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SEATTLE) - a poor offensive team (<=18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 8.5 (Average first half point differential = +4.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(41-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.4%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15, Opponent 7.7 (Average first half point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-8).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-30).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(44-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 8.6 (Average first half point differential = +6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-10).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-36).
____________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF TOTAL SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
4* CAROLINA/TAMPA BAY UNDER 18.5 - (86.2%)
4* SEATTLE/ARIZONA OVER 21 - (85.7%)
4* NEW ENGLAND/PITTSBURGH UNDER 22.5 - (82.1%)
3* JETS/CLEVELAND OVER19 - (75.0%)
3* CINCINNATI/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 23.5 - (73.1%)
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(25-4 since 1983.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 10.2 (Total first half points scored = 15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SEATTLE) - an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=27 PPG) after 8 games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(24-4 since 1983.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.1, Opponent 12.5 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%).
(32-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 7.3, Opponent 9.2 (Total first half points scored = 16.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (63-44).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs.
(42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.2, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 23.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (64-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (163-150).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.3, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 24.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (84-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (191-152).
• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------
4* MINNESOTA -1 - (86.2%)
4* TENNESSEE -2 - (85.7%)
4* ST LOUIS +6 - (85.7%)
4* DENVER +1 - (84.4%)
4* DETROIT +3 - (82.9%)
4* CAROLINA +7 - (81.8%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(25-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-12 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.2
The average score in these games was: Team 26.8, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = +6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (62.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (62-29).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (TENNESSEE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (89-77).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 17.2 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (89-77).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DENVER) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-21 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 20.6, Opponent 23.5 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (31.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (68-40).
--PLAY ON - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 17.5 (Average point differential = +5.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (35.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
--PLAY ON - Any team (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(36-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-29 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.8
The average score in these games was: Team 18.3, Opponent 21.1 (Average point differential = -2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-45).
__________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
4* SEATTLE/ARIZONA OVER 41.5 - (82.9%)
4* CAROLINA/TAMPA BAY OVER 37 - (82.9%)
3* HOUSTON/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 50 - (82.4%)
3* NY JETS/CLEVELAND OVER 37.5 - (81.4%)
3* DALLAS/NY GIANTS UNDER 45.5 - (74.6%)
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (ARIZONA) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.4
The average score in these games was: Team 26.3, Opponent 25.9 (Total points scored = 52.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-37).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.4
The average score in these games was: Team 26.3, Opponent 25.9 (Total points scored = 52.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-37).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more, after the first month of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.6, Opponent 15.4 (Total points scored = 35.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game.
(35-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.4%, +26.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 38.5
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 23.3 (Total points scored = 47.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (51.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (52-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (148-133).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (NY GIANTS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, in weeks 10 through 13.
(44-15 since 1983.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.6
The average score in these games was: Team 21, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (41.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
____________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------
5* BUFFALO -1.5 - (88.5%)
4* DENVER +1 - (85.7%)
3* ARIZONA -1.5 - (81.2%)
3* NY GIANTS -7.5 - (77.4%)
3* CLEVELAND +1.5 - (74.6%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games.
(23-3 since 1983.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 4.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 9.6 (Average first half point differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (43-23).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (102-82).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SEATTLE) - a poor offensive team (<=18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 8.5 (Average first half point differential = +4.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(41-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.4%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15, Opponent 7.7 (Average first half point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-8).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-30).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(44-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 8.6 (Average first half point differential = +6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-10).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-36).
____________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF TOTAL SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
4* CAROLINA/TAMPA BAY UNDER 18.5 - (86.2%)
4* SEATTLE/ARIZONA OVER 21 - (85.7%)
4* NEW ENGLAND/PITTSBURGH UNDER 22.5 - (82.1%)
3* JETS/CLEVELAND OVER19 - (75.0%)
3* CINCINNATI/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 23.5 - (73.1%)
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(25-4 since 1983.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 10.2 (Total first half points scored = 15.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SEATTLE) - an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=27 PPG) after 8 games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(24-4 since 1983.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.1, Opponent 12.5 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%).
(32-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 7.3, Opponent 9.2 (Total first half points scored = 16.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (63-44).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs.
(42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.2, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 23.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (64-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (163-150).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.3, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 24.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (84-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (191-152).
THE PREDICTION MACHINE
PREDICTION MACHINE PAUL'S PICKS
•Year-to-Date ATS Locks of the Week: 12-7-1 (63.2%)
•All-Time ATS Locks of the Week: 61-18-3 (77.2%)
•YTD Daily Top ATS Plays: 36-14 (72.0%)
•Paul's Picks ATS Week: 3-4 (with one game remaining)
•YTD Paul's Picks ATS: 51-25 (67.1%)
ATS Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay -6.5 over Carolina (Covers 61.8%)
The Carolina offense is terrible. Tampa Bay may be able to score one touchdown and still cover in this game. I would guess that, when the season started, Carolina did not expect that they would be taking on a 5-3 Tampa Bay team - that already won by double-digits in Carolina - with Jimmy Clausen, Mike Goodson and David Gettis as critical offensive players. Each has shown some flashes of ability, but none should be starting in the NFL right now.
It's that simple.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Tampa Bay wins 78.4% of the time and by an average score of 21.8 - 12.4. With just a 6.5-point line, the Buccaneers cover the spread 61.8% of the time. This is a strong play that would warrant a $99 play from a normal $50 player. The betting public understands how bad these offenses are as well, as the total line is just 36.5, making the UNDER a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Houston +2 @ Jacksonville (Covers 60.8%)
Last week, our second best pick mid-week was against the Texans at home - and Houston was getting points. The Texans are getting points again, but are now on the road against a divisional foe.
To me, this line appears to be too reliant on recent performances. In the last two weeks, Houston has been schooled by the banged-up Colts in Indianapolis and beaten late in a shootout at home against the Chargers. In the same time period, the Jaguars destroyed the Cowboys and then had a bye week. The problem is that the Texans ran into better football teams that were perfectly built to exploit Houston's weaknesses. Jacksonville beat a bad Cowboys team that gave up in that game (or was it the second Tony Romo went down? Or was it in September?). In this matchup, Houston is the better team and has the weapons to exploit Jacksonville's weaknesses.
We have talked at length about how bad the Texans' secondary is and how that will keep them from making a serious playoff push. Well the only worse team against the pass this season has been the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while David Garrard should put up some big fantasy points against the Texans, Houston's offensive passing game is significantly better than Jacksonville's. As is the Texans' running game and its ability to defend the run. Advantage Houston across the board (save for homefield).
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, the Houston Texans, two-point underdogs, win outright 56.5% of the time and by an average score of 28.2 - 25.5. They cover 60.8% of the time, a strong play that would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. Even with a 50 point total line, the highest in the league this week, when these two porous defenses meet, we like the OVER to cover as a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Kansas City -1 @ Denver (60.8%)
I get that Kansas City is not built to blow teams out, especially on the road. I also know that, before taking on Oakland, Kyle Orton and the Broncos' passing offense looked very good. And I am aware that the Broncos are going to be at home coming off of a bye week. But in this case, the last two outings from the Broncos cannot be ignored due to how soundly they were defeated by teams that appeared to be inferior. Plus, it's putting a lot of faith in Josh McDaniels to assume that the team will work out the kinks and galvanize after the week off (the Broncos' 2009 record after the bye week was 2-8).
Denver's passing offense, which still ranks among the top four in the NFL, is the team's greatest strength. However, Kansas City has the 8th best passing defense in the league, so it's close to a wash... and every other matchup favors the Chiefs.
Denver ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing efficiency, 27th against the pass and 26th against the run. Kansas City ranks 24th in passing, fourth in rushing and eighth against the run.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Kansas City, just a one-point favorite, wins straight-up 63.1% of the time. The Chiefs cover that spread 60.8% of the time. As above, that confidence would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. The OVER on 43 points is almost as strong of a play in this game, coming in 59.9% of the time. This would warrant a $79 play from a normal $50 player.
SIDES
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS Boxscore Calc Play
228 1:00 PM @ TB CAR -6.5 9.4 61.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
217 1:00 PM HOU @ JAC 2 2.7 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
229 4:05 PM KC @ DEN -1 4.9 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
223 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 3 1.6 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
231 4:15 PM STL @ SF 6 -2.8 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM @ PIT NE -4.5 7.4 59.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM @ CLE NYJ 3.5 -0.5 58.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
TOTALS
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Boxscore Calc Play
234 4:15 PM SEA @ ARI 41 36.8 Under 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
230 4:05 PM KC @ DEN 43 47.5 Over 59.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
232 4:15 PM STL @ SF 38 41.6 Over 59.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM NE @ PIT 45 41.2 Under 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
224 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 44 48.1 Over 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
236 4:15 PM DAL @ NYG 45 41.6 Under 57.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM NYJ @ CLE 37.5 40.4 Over 57.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
PREDICTION MACHINE PAUL'S PICKS
•Year-to-Date ATS Locks of the Week: 12-7-1 (63.2%)
•All-Time ATS Locks of the Week: 61-18-3 (77.2%)
•YTD Daily Top ATS Plays: 36-14 (72.0%)
•Paul's Picks ATS Week: 3-4 (with one game remaining)
•YTD Paul's Picks ATS: 51-25 (67.1%)
ATS Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay -6.5 over Carolina (Covers 61.8%)
The Carolina offense is terrible. Tampa Bay may be able to score one touchdown and still cover in this game. I would guess that, when the season started, Carolina did not expect that they would be taking on a 5-3 Tampa Bay team - that already won by double-digits in Carolina - with Jimmy Clausen, Mike Goodson and David Gettis as critical offensive players. Each has shown some flashes of ability, but none should be starting in the NFL right now.
It's that simple.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Tampa Bay wins 78.4% of the time and by an average score of 21.8 - 12.4. With just a 6.5-point line, the Buccaneers cover the spread 61.8% of the time. This is a strong play that would warrant a $99 play from a normal $50 player. The betting public understands how bad these offenses are as well, as the total line is just 36.5, making the UNDER a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Houston +2 @ Jacksonville (Covers 60.8%)
Last week, our second best pick mid-week was against the Texans at home - and Houston was getting points. The Texans are getting points again, but are now on the road against a divisional foe.
To me, this line appears to be too reliant on recent performances. In the last two weeks, Houston has been schooled by the banged-up Colts in Indianapolis and beaten late in a shootout at home against the Chargers. In the same time period, the Jaguars destroyed the Cowboys and then had a bye week. The problem is that the Texans ran into better football teams that were perfectly built to exploit Houston's weaknesses. Jacksonville beat a bad Cowboys team that gave up in that game (or was it the second Tony Romo went down? Or was it in September?). In this matchup, Houston is the better team and has the weapons to exploit Jacksonville's weaknesses.
We have talked at length about how bad the Texans' secondary is and how that will keep them from making a serious playoff push. Well the only worse team against the pass this season has been the Jacksonville Jaguars. And while David Garrard should put up some big fantasy points against the Texans, Houston's offensive passing game is significantly better than Jacksonville's. As is the Texans' running game and its ability to defend the run. Advantage Houston across the board (save for homefield).
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, the Houston Texans, two-point underdogs, win outright 56.5% of the time and by an average score of 28.2 - 25.5. They cover 60.8% of the time, a strong play that would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. Even with a 50 point total line, the highest in the league this week, when these two porous defenses meet, we like the OVER to cover as a weak, but playable play.
Other Paul's Pick: Kansas City -1 @ Denver (60.8%)
I get that Kansas City is not built to blow teams out, especially on the road. I also know that, before taking on Oakland, Kyle Orton and the Broncos' passing offense looked very good. And I am aware that the Broncos are going to be at home coming off of a bye week. But in this case, the last two outings from the Broncos cannot be ignored due to how soundly they were defeated by teams that appeared to be inferior. Plus, it's putting a lot of faith in Josh McDaniels to assume that the team will work out the kinks and galvanize after the week off (the Broncos' 2009 record after the bye week was 2-8).
Denver's passing offense, which still ranks among the top four in the NFL, is the team's greatest strength. However, Kansas City has the 8th best passing defense in the league, so it's close to a wash... and every other matchup favors the Chiefs.
Denver ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing efficiency, 27th against the pass and 26th against the run. Kansas City ranks 24th in passing, fourth in rushing and eighth against the run.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Kansas City, just a one-point favorite, wins straight-up 63.1% of the time. The Chiefs cover that spread 60.8% of the time. As above, that confidence would warrant an $88 play from a normal $50 player. The OVER on 43 points is almost as strong of a play in this game, coming in 59.9% of the time. This would warrant a $79 play from a normal $50 player.
SIDES
Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS Boxscore Calc Play
228 1:00 PM @ TB CAR -6.5 9.4 61.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
217 1:00 PM HOU @ JAC 2 2.7 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
229 4:05 PM KC @ DEN -1 4.9 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
223 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 3 1.6 60.8 Boxscore Calc --> Play
231 4:15 PM STL @ SF 6 -2.8 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM @ PIT NE -4.5 7.4 59.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM @ CLE NYJ 3.5 -0.5 58.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
TOTALS
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% Boxscore Calc Play
234 4:15 PM SEA @ ARI 41 36.8 Under 60.7 Boxscore Calc --> Play
230 4:05 PM KC @ DEN 43 47.5 Over 59.9 Boxscore Calc --> Play
232 4:15 PM STL @ SF 38 41.6 Over 59.2 Boxscore Calc --> Play
238 8:20 PM NE @ PIT 45 41.2 Under 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
224 1:00 PM DET @ BUF 44 48.1 Over 58.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
236 4:15 PM DAL @ NYG 45 41.6 Under 57.5 Boxscore Calc --> Play
226 1:00 PM NYJ @ CLE 37.5 40.4 Over 57.4 Boxscore Calc --> Play
