-= TOP PLAY =- <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="header"> <th>Sport</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Matchup</th> <th>Book</th> <th>Starts</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap">NFL</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Nov 08 '09
1:00p</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Washington Redskins vs Atlanta Falcons
Take: Washington Redskins +8½-110</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">in 36m</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="7" class="comment">THE BOYS UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK.</td></tr></tbody></table>
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. No one was quite sure how Tom Brady would respond after missing the remainder of the 2008 season after getting hurt in Week 1 vs the Chiefs. The Pats (and Brady) were 'shaky' in opening 3-2, as Brady went 23-of-47 for 216 yards with no TDs and one INT in a 16-9 loss at the Jets and 19-of-33 for 215 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in a 20-17 OT loss at Denver (Pats led 17-7 at the half but never scored again). However, the Pats come into this game having beaten the Titans 59-0 at home and the Bucs 35-7 in London. Brady has completed 78.8 percent of his passes in those two wins, throwing nine TDs and just two INTs. Many people questioned the Patriots' defense coming into this year but the Pats rank 4th in yards allowed (285.7 YPG) and 3rd in points allowed (14.0 PPG). Getting to Miami, the Dolphins went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and an AFC East title in 2008. However, they opened 0-3 in 2009, plus lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the season. Chad Henne has started the last four games, as Miami has clawed its way back with THREE wins. However, after completing 70.8 percent of his throws (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in his first two starts, Henne has completed just 52.6 percent in his last two (1 TD / 2 INTs). The Miami running game, led by Brown and Williams, is impressive. Miami comes in averaging 153.4 YPG (4.6 YPC) which ranks 3rd in the NFL but the defense is questionable. While New England's defense is allowing just 14.0 PPG, Miami's allows 25.3 PPG. Miami enters this game 3-4 only because of Ted Ginn's two 100-yard KO returns (1st time in NFL history a player has done that in the same game) and Jason Taylor's 48-yard fumble return for a TD. The Dolphins were outgained last Sunday in The Meadowlands by the Jets 378-to-104 in yards and 23-10 in FDs. However, Ginn's two return TDs and Taylor's fumble TD gave the Dolphins a 30-25 win. The Patriots will well-remember the Dolphins' 38-13 win last year in Foxboro plus one can't ignore this factoid. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the game following their bye week (like here) since 2003, winning on average by 29.7-to-11.7 PPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* NE Patriots.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. The Saints matched the best start in franchise history with a 35-27 home win over Atlanta on Monday night ('91 Saints also opened 7-0). However, Monday's win was the first time New Orleans failed to cover in 2009. No one can argue with the way Drew Brees has played (68.3% / 286.6 YPG / 16-6 ratio / 107.6 QB rating) or the team's running game, which is fourth in the NFL at 153.3 YPG (4.5 YPC). That being said, let's note that the Saints almost lost in Week 7 at Miami (trailed 24-3 before rallying for a 46-34 win) and in last Monday night's game, the Saints were outgained by an opponent for the first time all season. Now I don't want to make too big of a deal over the Panthers but let's not forget this team was 12-4 in 2008. It's been an awful season for QB Delhomme (an NFL-high 13 INTs with a pathetic QB rating of 59.3) but this team can run and play defense. DeAngelo Williams has topped 150 yards in TWO of Carolina's last three games, including last week's 34-21 win at Arizona where the Panthers ran for 270 yards (Cards' defense entered the game allowing an NFL-best 67.5 YPG). Carolina is averaging 148.9 YPG on the ground this season (5th-best) and 4.7 YPC. The defense ranks seventh overall, allowing 288.1 YPG. Seven straight wins is impressive but laying about two TDs to the Panthers is "too much to ask." Just look at the history between these two teams since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, creating four, four-team divisions in both the AFC and NFC. The Panthers and Saints plus the Bucs and Falcons have made up the NFC South since then. The Panthers have come to New Orleans in each of the last seven years and won, outright. For the record, the Panthers have won at New Orleans 10-6, 23-20, 32-21, 27-10, 31-21, 16-13 and 33-31. I'm taking the points! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* NFL Total of the Month (65.4% s/2003)
My 20* NFL Total of the Month is on Arz/Chi Over at 1:00 ET. This play is based on matchups and situational history. The Cards expected to have a much-improved running game this year but in fact, it's worse. The Cards ran for 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC) last year and this year it's just 64.9 YPC (3.3 YPC). As for the Bears, they have struggled running the ball as well, averaging a modest 93.4 YPG (3.9 YPC). Considering Arizona owns one of the NFL's top rushing defenses (allowing just 96.4 YPG and only 3.8 YPC, despite allowing the Panthers to rush for 270 yards last week), I doubt the Bears will be interested in running much either. The weather is unseasonably warm in Chicago (high 60s), so I look for a 'shootout' between Cutler and Warner. The Bears are 3-0 at home in 2009 with Cutler completing 64.6 percent of his passes with four TDs and one INT (96.6 rating). Warner is coming off one of the worst games of his career (five INTs and a fumble vs the Panthers) but has been excellent on the road in 2009 (73.8 percent / 250 YPG / 5 TDs and 2 INTs / 102.0 QB rating). Taking a look at the history book and it reveals these numbers. The Cards are 48-26-1 (65.9%) to the 'over' since the beginning of the 2005 season (including LY's postseason). They are 25-11-1 (69.4%) to the over in games away from home, including two of three this year, averaging 27.3 PPG. History is also on our side in taking the Bears 'OVER' at home. Chicago's defense led them to an 11-5 season in 2005 but the Bears lost their first playoff game that postseason, 29-21 in Chicago to the Panthers. Beginning with that game, the Bears have played 30 home games, with the OVER cashing 21 of 30 times, or 70.0 percent of the time! NFL November Total of the Month 20* Arz/Chi Over.
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. No one was quite sure how Tom Brady would respond after missing the remainder of the 2008 season after getting hurt in Week 1 vs the Chiefs. The Pats (and Brady) were 'shaky' in opening 3-2, as Brady went 23-of-47 for 216 yards with no TDs and one INT in a 16-9 loss at the Jets and 19-of-33 for 215 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in a 20-17 OT loss at Denver (Pats led 17-7 at the half but never scored again). However, the Pats come into this game having beaten the Titans 59-0 at home and the Bucs 35-7 in London. Brady has completed 78.8 percent of his passes in those two wins, throwing nine TDs and just two INTs. Many people questioned the Patriots' defense coming into this year but the Pats rank 4th in yards allowed (285.7 YPG) and 3rd in points allowed (14.0 PPG). Getting to Miami, the Dolphins went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and an AFC East title in 2008. However, they opened 0-3 in 2009, plus lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the season. Chad Henne has started the last four games, as Miami has clawed its way back with THREE wins. However, after completing 70.8 percent of his throws (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in his first two starts, Henne has completed just 52.6 percent in his last two (1 TD / 2 INTs). The Miami running game, led by Brown and Williams, is impressive. Miami comes in averaging 153.4 YPG (4.6 YPC) which ranks 3rd in the NFL but the defense is questionable. While New England's defense is allowing just 14.0 PPG, Miami's allows 25.3 PPG. Miami enters this game 3-4 only because of Ted Ginn's two 100-yard KO returns (1st time in NFL history a player has done that in the same game) and Jason Taylor's 48-yard fumble return for a TD. The Dolphins were outgained last Sunday in The Meadowlands by the Jets 378-to-104 in yards and 23-10 in FDs. However, Ginn's two return TDs and Taylor's fumble TD gave the Dolphins a 30-25 win. The Patriots will well-remember the Dolphins' 38-13 win last year in Foxboro plus one can't ignore this factoid. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the game following their bye week (like here) since 2003, winning on average by 29.7-to-11.7 PPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* NE Patriots.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. The Saints matched the best start in franchise history with a 35-27 home win over Atlanta on Monday night ('91 Saints also opened 7-0). However, Monday's win was the first time New Orleans failed to cover in 2009. No one can argue with the way Drew Brees has played (68.3% / 286.6 YPG / 16-6 ratio / 107.6 QB rating) or the team's running game, which is fourth in the NFL at 153.3 YPG (4.5 YPC). That being said, let's note that the Saints almost lost in Week 7 at Miami (trailed 24-3 before rallying for a 46-34 win) and in last Monday night's game, the Saints were outgained by an opponent for the first time all season. Now I don't want to make too big of a deal over the Panthers but let's not forget this team was 12-4 in 2008. It's been an awful season for QB Delhomme (an NFL-high 13 INTs with a pathetic QB rating of 59.3) but this team can run and play defense. DeAngelo Williams has topped 150 yards in TWO of Carolina's last three games, including last week's 34-21 win at Arizona where the Panthers ran for 270 yards (Cards' defense entered the game allowing an NFL-best 67.5 YPG). Carolina is averaging 148.9 YPG on the ground this season (5th-best) and 4.7 YPC. The defense ranks seventh overall, allowing 288.1 YPG. Seven straight wins is impressive but laying about two TDs to the Panthers is "too much to ask." Just look at the history between these two teams since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, creating four, four-team divisions in both the AFC and NFC. The Panthers and Saints plus the Bucs and Falcons have made up the NFC South since then. The Panthers have come to New Orleans in each of the last seven years and won, outright. For the record, the Panthers have won at New Orleans 10-6, 23-20, 32-21, 27-10, 31-21, 16-13 and 33-31. I'm taking the points! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Car Panthers.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* NFL Total of the Month (65.4% s/2003)
My 20* NFL Total of the Month is on Arz/Chi Over at 1:00 ET. This play is based on matchups and situational history. The Cards expected to have a much-improved running game this year but in fact, it's worse. The Cards ran for 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC) last year and this year it's just 64.9 YPC (3.3 YPC). As for the Bears, they have struggled running the ball as well, averaging a modest 93.4 YPG (3.9 YPC). Considering Arizona owns one of the NFL's top rushing defenses (allowing just 96.4 YPG and only 3.8 YPC, despite allowing the Panthers to rush for 270 yards last week), I doubt the Bears will be interested in running much either. The weather is unseasonably warm in Chicago (high 60s), so I look for a 'shootout' between Cutler and Warner. The Bears are 3-0 at home in 2009 with Cutler completing 64.6 percent of his passes with four TDs and one INT (96.6 rating). Warner is coming off one of the worst games of his career (five INTs and a fumble vs the Panthers) but has been excellent on the road in 2009 (73.8 percent / 250 YPG / 5 TDs and 2 INTs / 102.0 QB rating). Taking a look at the history book and it reveals these numbers. The Cards are 48-26-1 (65.9%) to the 'over' since the beginning of the 2005 season (including LY's postseason). They are 25-11-1 (69.4%) to the over in games away from home, including two of three this year, averaging 27.3 PPG. History is also on our side in taking the Bears 'OVER' at home. Chicago's defense led them to an 11-5 season in 2005 but the Bears lost their first playoff game that postseason, 29-21 in Chicago to the Panthers. Beginning with that game, the Bears have played 30 home games, with the OVER cashing 21 of 30 times, or 70.0 percent of the time! NFL November Total of the Month 20* Arz/Chi Over.
