Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (off 5-2 Saturday!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the ten Titans at 4:05 ET. The Titans opened the 2008 season 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS but a 34-13 home loss to the Jets in Week 12 was the beginning of "the fall." The Titans would finish the regular season 13-3 but lost its' first playoff game to the Ravens, at home. That gave them a 3-4 SU and ATS finish to the 2008 season, after that 10-0 start. The Titans played at Pittsburgh in the 2009 NFL opener, on a Thursday night. The Titans took the defending champs to OT, before losing 13-10. They would lose the following week 34-31 at home to the Texans and the week after that, 24-17 at the Jets. The 0-3 start was troubling but the Titans were competitive. The "wheels came off" in a Week 4 loss at Jacksonville, as the Jags beat the Titans, 37-17. A 31-9 home loss to the Colts followed and then came that 59-0 loss at New England. After losing by three, three and seven points to open the year, the Titans were outscored 127-26 in their next three losses, allowing 476 YPG as opposing QBs connected on 80.2 percent of their attempts with 12 TDs and just one INT. Did any team in the NFL need a bye more last week than Tennessee? The team will return to the field this Sunday having gone 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS since last year's 10-0 (9-0-1 ATS) start, to face the Jags (the team which began its really 'ugly' three-game spiral back in Game 4) and with Vince Young at QB. Kerry Collins was 12-3 as a starter in 2008, after replacing Young in the team's season-opening 17-10 win over Jacksonville last September 7. Young was intercepted twice in that contest and "famously" had to be told by coach Jeff Fisher to go back into the game. Young would hurt his knee a few plays later and Collins would remain the starter. Speculation grew that Young was having "emotional and personal issues," leaving everyone to only guess at what the real story was (is). It's been reported that Titans owner Bud Adams spoke to Fisher during the bye week, telling the coach he wanted Young to start against the Jaguars over Collins, who was an awful 2-of-12 for minus-seven yards and an interception in Tennessee's 59-0 loss to New England on October 18. Is this a "make or break" game for Young? It could be. Now to Jacksonville. The Jags have had some QB questions of their own, as people are waiting for Garrard to return to his 2007 form (18-3 ratio and QB rating of 102.2). He threw for 3,620 yards in 2008 but his ratio was 15-13 and his QB rating fell to 81.7. Garrard was 27-of-37 for 323 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in the Jags' 37-17 Week 4 win over the Titans but in the two games since (a 41-0 loss at Seattle and a 23-20 OT 'squeaker' against the winless Rams at home), has not thrown a TD pass in 74 attempts with two INTs. The 3-3 Jags, like the Titans, had a bye last week and while Jacksonville has won three of its last four, the team is well aware it was also 3-3 last season coming off a bye week but lost EIGHT of its final 10 games. "This is a different team, different locker room, different attitude," TE Marcedes Lewis said. "I just feel like leadership on this team this year is better. The young guys are buying in, everybody's buying in. It's a different attitude about everything, about how we handle our business." We'll see. The Titans began this year with just about the same team which went 13-3 last season (of course, Haynesworth was a HUGE loss), meaning they are NOT comparable to the 0-7 Bucs and Rams, the 1-6 Browns and Chiefs, the 1-5 Lions nor even the 2-5 Raiders. Note that in Week 4 at Jacksonville, the Titans got 'steamed' to three or even 3 1/2-point favorites. Here, they opened as a three-point favorite and it's stayed right there as of late Saturday night. I've lost three times with the Titans this year (against the Texans, Jets and Jags) but used the Pats against Tennessee in its last game. Oddsmaker's Error 15* Ten Titans.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (28-7 or 80% since '07)-Late
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. For the second time in five weeks, a Vikings/Packers matchup is the most-anticipated and talked-bout game of the NFL week. The Vikings beat the Packers 30-23 back in Week 4, a Monday night game played in the Metrodome. This Sunday's Week 8 contest will be in fabled Lambeau Field, which is located in the city dubbed, "Titletown, USA." Of course, the big news is Brett Favre's "return to Green Bay," where he became the NFL's all-time leading passer while winning three MVP awards and a Super Bowl. Favre threw for three TD passes and 271 yards in that Monday night win but note that Rodgers was 26-of-37 for 384 yards with two TDs (110.6 QB rating). The venue helped the Vikings in the MNF meeting (Minnesota's DL overwhelmed Green Bay's OL on the carpet) but this game will be played on some good old Lambeau Field grass and rather than the over-the-top non-stop crowd noise of the Metrodome aiding the Vikings, Minnesota will have to deal with the very different conditions of Lambeau Field, as well as its rabid-faithful. Let's note that the Packers have had two "rocking-chair" wins since that Minnesota loss with Rodgers completing 77.2 percent of his passes for an average of 302.0 YPG (5 TDs / 1 INT). He finally enjoyed his first sack-less game this year last week in Cleveland and while Minnesota will present a tougher challenge, I look for the Green Bay OL to be up to the challenge. Favre is having a super season (68.9% / 240.1 YPG / 12-3 ratio / 102.2 QB rating) but Rodgers numbers are better (65.8% / 83.7 YPG / 11-2 ratio/ 110.8 QB rating). Ryan Grant can't match AP but look at the defensive numbers. Green Bay's unit allows 271.5 YPG (Minnesota's 330.0) and 16.0 PPG (Vikings allow 21.1). Green Bay's defense is getting "better by the game," as it absorbs new defensive coordinator Dom Capers' 3-4 principles. The motivation is HUGE on both sides but after losing at Minnesota, one HAS to give the edge to the Packers. More importantly, the Packers have had a pretty easy three-week run since last facing the Vikings (bye week followed by a home win vs the Lions and a road win at Cleveland), while the Vikings needed to "dodge a bullet" vs the Ravens two weeks ago (Baltimore miss a last-second FG) and then last week lost their first game of the 2009 season (6-0 start) in a "thriller" at Pittsburgh. I really like the matchups in this game (and on this field) for the Packers but with Minnesota playing a THIRD straight highly-competitive opponent not to mention "everything else" surrounding this matchup, I see the Vikings 'cracking!' Note, teams are usually drained after playing the Steelers. A check of the ATS record book shows that the last 35 teams have gone 7-28 ATS in their very next regular season game AFTER facing the Steelers. That means going against a team in their very next game after playing Pittsburgh, gives one a 28-7 or 80% ATS make. Fundamentally and techinically, it's the Packers. Club-80 Play 20* GB Packers.