Dr. Who & Why
CHURCHILL
SUN 11-1-09
*
"LIVE LONG SHOT"
Out of the #1 hole RAGING WIT has switched from the grass to take on GR-III runners on the dirt. Doesnt look to be a big-time favorite here and im taking a shot at the turf to dirt angle. His Sire, 'Distorted Humor' took several Gr-II and Gr-III races and was competitive in his races racking up nearly $800k in the mid 90's.....he was a dirt runner ONLY....'Wit' won his maiden race at Turfway but made a nice move on the grass in his 2nd race against a tough ALW field before fading out of it. He took his MSW in stalking fashion 6f in a quick 1:10.2....he will be overlooked and may show his best in this spot....im taking a minor shot here...
CHURCHILL
SUN 11-1-09
*
"LIVE LONG SHOT"
Out of the #1 hole RAGING WIT has switched from the grass to take on GR-III runners on the dirt. Doesnt look to be a big-time favorite here and im taking a shot at the turf to dirt angle. His Sire, 'Distorted Humor' took several Gr-II and Gr-III races and was competitive in his races racking up nearly $800k in the mid 90's.....he was a dirt runner ONLY....'Wit' won his maiden race at Turfway but made a nice move on the grass in his 2nd race against a tough ALW field before fading out of it. He took his MSW in stalking fashion 6f in a quick 1:10.2....he will be overlooked and may show his best in this spot....im taking a minor shot here...
34PaytonPlace
Well guys our top play keeps rolling on and i expect it to continue last week we were good showing a profit and would like to keep that going again on sunday today in the college game was alittle rough but we were on a great roll hated to have that kind of day but those happen......I will give small insights on my plays this week!!!!!!!
5unit- Carolina +10
My how things have changed back in january it was the panthers favored by 10 and 10 months later the cards are the 10 point favorites just do not think the cards will be as sharp after the big win out east verus the giants....
5unit- Houston -3
I said before the season that the texans would make the playoffs and this month they must go 3-1 to really have a shot and this is a game they must win the bills have not won a game after there bye week since 1999 and are 2-8 ats during that time.....
5unit- Oakland +17 -120
I know the raiders are bad but they almost beat the chargers opening week and the raiders are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ats after there bye week last 8 seasons and remember they have been awful the last 7 seasons so that is impressive......
8unit- N.Y.Giants -1
The giants are coming off b2b losses and now face a divisional foe i just do not think that this eagles o-line will be able to hold off this gmen defense and expect alot of pressure on mcnabb and you take away those 2 big plays monday nite and that eagles offense was below average.......
8unit- Jags/Titans under 45
I have faith that coach fisher has lit a fire under this defense during there bye week and expect them to be alot sharper as this jags team gashed them on the ground earlier in the year as the jags won 37-17 i see this going under here.....
10unit- Dallas -9.5
I know there are some who do not like to back the boys and hey i'm one of them but there coming off a big win and face the seahawks at home here with division games on deck and we think with that cowboys d-front against a shaky seattle pass protection could spell doom for hasselbeck....Also the hawks are 2-9 SU and 1-10 ats after there bye week over the last 11 seasons how can i go against that.........
15unit- Baltimore -3 -120 (Top play)
I know all about the broncos yes there a big suprise but there two big wins against the pats and boys were both in mile high and the thing that has killed the ravens defense is the big play but the broncos rank #21 in yards per pt which means they are more of a long drone out offense....Then there is the ravens they have dropped there last 3 games but look at the difference between these 2 clubs while the broncos big wins have come at home the ravens had a passed dropped inside the 10 yard line to lose to the pats then the bengals scored in the last 20 seconds and then 2 weeks ago they took it to the vikings and that top 5 defense inminnesota scoring 31 points and missing a 46 yard fg to win it.....All 3 of those teams offenses are better than this broncos team the best offense the broncos have faced on the road is the chargers who rank #13 and cannot run the ball and today they face the ravens who are the #5 offense and can run the ball and this o-line has only allowed flacco to be sacked 10 times this year so this is also the best offensive line the broncos have faced this will be one hungry ravens team who i believe will have worked out alot of there defensive problems during this bye week......Lets take the ravens as our top play of week 8!
Well guys our top play keeps rolling on and i expect it to continue last week we were good showing a profit and would like to keep that going again on sunday today in the college game was alittle rough but we were on a great roll hated to have that kind of day but those happen......I will give small insights on my plays this week!!!!!!!
5unit- Carolina +10
My how things have changed back in january it was the panthers favored by 10 and 10 months later the cards are the 10 point favorites just do not think the cards will be as sharp after the big win out east verus the giants....
5unit- Houston -3
I said before the season that the texans would make the playoffs and this month they must go 3-1 to really have a shot and this is a game they must win the bills have not won a game after there bye week since 1999 and are 2-8 ats during that time.....
5unit- Oakland +17 -120
I know the raiders are bad but they almost beat the chargers opening week and the raiders are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ats after there bye week last 8 seasons and remember they have been awful the last 7 seasons so that is impressive......
8unit- N.Y.Giants -1
The giants are coming off b2b losses and now face a divisional foe i just do not think that this eagles o-line will be able to hold off this gmen defense and expect alot of pressure on mcnabb and you take away those 2 big plays monday nite and that eagles offense was below average.......
8unit- Jags/Titans under 45
I have faith that coach fisher has lit a fire under this defense during there bye week and expect them to be alot sharper as this jags team gashed them on the ground earlier in the year as the jags won 37-17 i see this going under here.....
10unit- Dallas -9.5
I know there are some who do not like to back the boys and hey i'm one of them but there coming off a big win and face the seahawks at home here with division games on deck and we think with that cowboys d-front against a shaky seattle pass protection could spell doom for hasselbeck....Also the hawks are 2-9 SU and 1-10 ats after there bye week over the last 11 seasons how can i go against that.........
15unit- Baltimore -3 -120 (Top play)
I know all about the broncos yes there a big suprise but there two big wins against the pats and boys were both in mile high and the thing that has killed the ravens defense is the big play but the broncos rank #21 in yards per pt which means they are more of a long drone out offense....Then there is the ravens they have dropped there last 3 games but look at the difference between these 2 clubs while the broncos big wins have come at home the ravens had a passed dropped inside the 10 yard line to lose to the pats then the bengals scored in the last 20 seconds and then 2 weeks ago they took it to the vikings and that top 5 defense inminnesota scoring 31 points and missing a 46 yard fg to win it.....All 3 of those teams offenses are better than this broncos team the best offense the broncos have faced on the road is the chargers who rank #13 and cannot run the ball and today they face the ravens who are the #5 offense and can run the ball and this o-line has only allowed flacco to be sacked 10 times this year so this is also the best offensive line the broncos have faced this will be one hungry ravens team who i believe will have worked out alot of there defensive problems during this bye week......Lets take the ravens as our top play of week 8!
Evan Altemus
Miami vs. Jets
Play; Jets -3
This situation doesn’t set up much better for New York in this game. Miami is coming off of a demoralizing home loss against New Orleans, in a game that they were up 24-3 late in the 1st half. They now have to travel to New York and face a Jets team that comes in wanting revenge for the Monday night loss to Miami a few weeks ago. Rex Ryan’s defense was embarrassed in that game, and I fully expect him to have his team prepared to face Miami’s rush based offense. Ryan should come up with a good game plan against the Wildcat style rushing offense, which torched the Jets in the first match-up. In addition, New York has a decent home field advantage, which should help them out against a demoralized Dolphins team. The Jets looked like the better team when they played a few weeks ago, despite losing outright. New York’s improved defense will be the difference in this game.
3 UNIT SELECTION JETS
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Miami vs. Jets
Play; Jets -3
This situation doesn’t set up much better for New York in this game. Miami is coming off of a demoralizing home loss against New Orleans, in a game that they were up 24-3 late in the 1st half. They now have to travel to New York and face a Jets team that comes in wanting revenge for the Monday night loss to Miami a few weeks ago. Rex Ryan’s defense was embarrassed in that game, and I fully expect him to have his team prepared to face Miami’s rush based offense. Ryan should come up with a good game plan against the Wildcat style rushing offense, which torched the Jets in the first match-up. In addition, New York has a decent home field advantage, which should help them out against a demoralized Dolphins team. The Jets looked like the better team when they played a few weeks ago, despite losing outright. New York’s improved defense will be the difference in this game.
3 UNIT SELECTION JETS
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Larry Ness' 25* AFC Game of the Year (Five in a row?)
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, November 01, 2009
$40.00 Guaranteed: The Chargers won going away this past Sunday for Fargo as his 10* Plays are now a NEAR PERFECT 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in the NFL YTD! Matt had his first non-profitable week in the NFL in the last 4 weeks so you know he is coming back this week taking names! He is unleashing another 10* MONSTER Winner you cannot miss! The MASSIVE run goes on! Do not make a move without this game! Guaranteed! 10/31/2009
10* Baltimore Ravens
Date: Sunday, November 01, 2009
$40.00 Guaranteed: The Chargers won going away this past Sunday for Fargo as his 10* Plays are now a NEAR PERFECT 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in the NFL YTD! Matt had his first non-profitable week in the NFL in the last 4 weeks so you know he is coming back this week taking names! He is unleashing another 10* MONSTER Winner you cannot miss! The MASSIVE run goes on! Do not make a move without this game! Guaranteed! 10/31/2009
10* Baltimore Ravens
Larry Ness' 25* AFC Game of the Year (Five in a row?)
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
GT Bookie Battle 2009 (8-7) 2008 & 2007 (37-21-4)
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Last week BAD 0-3!
Week #8 Pick… bet on: BUF, StL
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Last week BAD 0-3!
Week #8 Pick… bet on: BUF, StL
Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach
Game: Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals Nov 1 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s 10* (TOP PLAY) Carolina Panthers (+) @ Arizona @ 4:15 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
Play Carolina plus the big points as a 10* Top Play selection
Game: Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals Nov 1 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s 10* (TOP PLAY) Carolina Panthers (+) @ Arizona @ 4:15 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
Play Carolina plus the big points as a 10* Top Play selection
