Service Plays Sunday 10/5/08

[ymmit2nd]

STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL



10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday’s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to “flip the switch”.
Hopefully this time around it won’t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there’s no reason they shouldn’t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5




10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don’t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid’s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5



10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver’s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let’s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren’t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It’s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn’t played in
your stadium since ’99, now that’s a different story. Tampa’s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week’s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3



10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt’s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under “the Whis”. They’ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ’08. This is probably
the Bills’ toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
StatFox Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2


10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3







TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).


MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).



TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).



Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).




TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ‘97.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ‘95.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO

 

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE GOLD SHEET - NFL


KEY RELEASES

NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game



OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals” alert—Broncos “over” 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over” 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)



New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)



ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)





Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over” last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)



BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)



San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat” formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)


CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)



PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)


DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)



GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)



NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over” lately (Giants “over” 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over” 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)



DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)


*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)



MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)

 

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE SPORTS REPORTER - NFL


BEST BET
ATLANTA over *GREEN BAY by 4
The Packers are enduring a tough time right now as AJ Hawk is dealing with a groin
injury and Al Harris is done for several weeks, if not the season, with a busted spleen. On
offense, new quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with nagging injuries to his back and
shoulder, including a potentially dislocated throwing shoulder. There is a good chance
that Rodgers will be either hampered for this game, or miss it, which would test the
chemistry of an offense that was on the verge of truly coming together with Ryan Grant
healing up and the Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings combo becoming an every week threat.
Now the young, but feisty, Falcons travel to Lambeau Field with the chance to steal a
game on the road against one of the “better” teams in the conference that we’ve felt was
kind of fake all along anyway. Green Bay’s run defense has been horrendous, allowing
over 150 yards per game on the ground. The Atlanta game-plan should be centered
around exploiting that weakness. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood form a potent
combination of power running and speed at the edges that will be instrumental in attacking
a weak Packers defensive front seven and easing the pressure of rookie franchise
quarterback, Matt Ryan. If the running game can force the Packers to play close to the
line of scrimmage, Ryan has the poise to find Roddy White as his big-play threat among
a group of back-up Green Bay corners. The Packers had everything go right for them last
season and even in the first two games of ’08. But the NFL has a way of leveling things
off and setting up “good” teams to be exploited. ATLANTA 20-16.





BEST BET
TAMPA BAY over *DENVER by 7
Layin’ points with that Denver defense, which hasn’t made a key stop since Hector was
a pup? Good luck to ya. Bucs’ head coach Jon Gruden hasn’t prioritized non-conference
road games and is 1-7 ATS in them since 2004, for anyone ATS logging at home. But
that’s part of the smokescreen for this particular match-up. Sure, the Bucs have NFC
South foe Carolina on deck. But the Panthers are hosting the Chiefs this Sunday, which
makes Carolina a good bet to be 4-1 when this game kicks off. With the New York Giants,
Dallas and Washington also 3-1, playoff spots might start to dry up early if teams with
winning records do not keep winning. Mike Shanahan is on the other sideline, and that
gets Gruden’s attention from when they squared off when Gruden coached the Raiders.
Playing in Denver also gets the attention of Bucs’ starting quarterback Brian Griese, who
was booed out of the place and returns as the Broncos’ defense is trying to stop moving
backwards all the time. The Bucs’ offense was logging more offensive plays per game
than anybody else in the NFL prior to facing Green Bay last Sunday (68), then went out
and logged 71 against the Packers, for 36 minutes of clock time. Denver QB Jay Cutler
is good for a few picks against a Cover-2 defense. Hey, he tossed two into the Chiefs’
Cover-2 last Sunday. TAMPA BAY, 27-20.



BEST BET
*ARIZONA over BUFFALO by 14
The Bills venture to the West Coast in a second consecutive non-conference road game
vs. an NFC West opponent. The Bills are already playing their third non-conference game
through five weeks and while they didn’t encounter much resistance while throttling
Seattle and St. Louis, perspective must be maintained. After all, the opening week
Seahawks had a rotating cast of no-names playing wide receiver and the Rams have
played like the worst team in the NFL. The wins were a big boost to an emerging franchise,
but Arizona, despite their own meltdown against Gang Green, are a better team
than their two divisional competitors. With the Bills riding high after starting the season
4-0 and Arizona looking weak after dropping two straight road losses, now is the time
for the smart investor to buy low and bet against the hype. The Bills will be traveling close
to 6,000 miles in the two weeks preceding this game and will be dealing with a knee
injury to their best cornerback, Terrence McGee. Arizona may or may not have Anquan
Boldin, after he suffered an ugly helmet-to-helmet hit against the Jets, but Larry
Fitzgerald will prove to be a complete mismatch against whichever cornerback lines up
against him – Ashton Youboty or Leodis McKelvin. Look for the home team to be rejuvenated
and regain some measure of pride after two desultory efforts. ARIZONA 28-14.



RECOMMENDED
*NY GIANTS over SEATTLE by 15
Seahawks’ head coach Mike Holmgren is a well-known schedule and standings cheat.
When it is imperative for Seattle to play, they play as well as they can play. When it isn’t
imperative for them to play as well as they can play, they play worse than their best and
point to the prioritized affairs. Holmgren’s team is 1-2. With a chance to tie 2-2 Arizona
and 2-2 San Francisco in the NFC West standings, it’s kind of imperative to play, but not
a drop-dead, must-have game because the Seahawks have Green Bay home on deck,
San Francisco and Arizona are loser-laden division rivals who play basically the same
tough schedule as the Seahawks face, and St. Louis barely exists. Giants dangerous
receiving weapon Plaxico Burress has been suspended for this game, and we ain’t fallin’
into the trap of expecting the Giants to fall apart just because the guy who caught the
Super Bowl-winning TD pass won’t be on the field. The Seahawks would need more than
the bye week preceding this to figure out how to protect Matt Hasselbeck from getting
torn in pieces by the Giants’ defense. If they are getting their best receivers like Engram
and Branch back after the bye after they’ve been injured and out so far, all the more reason
for the passing game to still be rusty and the offense prone to being pressured and
picked. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t gonna see the ball much anyway, unless their overrated
defense takes it away from Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs. NY GIANTS, 28-13.




SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
INDIANAPOLIS over *HOUSTON by 2
Peyton Manning and the Colts have to hope that the bye week fixed what ails them because
after this week’s tilt with the Houston Texans, the schedule becomes considerably more difficult.
A home game against Baltimore is followed by consecutive road games against the
Packers and Titans, with games against the Patriots and Steelers lying in wait. If the Colts
can’t get their line issues straightened out, this could be a very bumpy season. Jeff
Saturday’s return should give the offensive line some kind of consistency with the running
game improving in turn. Too often, the Colts have given Joseph Addai no room to run, putting
more pressure on a rusty Manning to carry the offense. More recovery time for an injured
offensive line can only make the Indy offense more consistent. However, the run defense
remains suspect due to a thin defensive line and Bob Sanders once again being out with
injury. New Houston tailback Steve Slaton, with his running and receiving skills, will be
expected to put up a big game in this home outing – the Texans will need it if they hope to
stay in this one. The Colts have handled the Texans pretty well over the years and the added
benefit of having the bye week should ensure that Indy wins their second game and returns
to .500 – an accomplishment that travels further and further out of sight for Houston as they
keep falling on their face against divisional opponents. INDIANAPOLIS 27-25.



TENNESSEE over *BALTIMORE by 6
Titans’ dominant d-lineman Albert Haynesworth and his buddies might munch on a Flacco
Joe sandwich for Sunday brunch here. As stated several times, Baltimore, against a good
defense, does not stand out as a profitable prospect vs. the spread. But they have their own
good defense and they might force Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins to do bad things, as
many as Flacco Joe will do if the Ravens – off one of their two annual auto-grudge matches
vs. Pittsburgh on Monday Night -- cannot dent the Titans on the ground. When Collins sees
the Ravens’ helmets and colors, and Ray Lewis across from him at the line of scrimmage,
he will have flashbacks and day sweats about the 2000 Super Bowl, when Baltimore’s
defense did everything but yank his pants down and spank him in front of millions. A huge
game from Collins is highly unlikely, but the Titans are becoming Baltimore, Jr., winning
through intimidation and depth on the defensive front seven, which makes business easier
for the secondary. Both defenses are allowing low rushing yardage per game. When offenses
cannot run, they usually cannot pass well either, which makes for a low score unless
defense and/or special teams score points or set up short-drive offensive scores. TENNESSEE,
13-7.



SAN DIEGO over *MIAMI by 7
The San Diego Chargers should be nicknamed the Cardiac Kids for their propensity to coast
through the first half, then explode in the second half of games. That being said, Norv Turner
might have a reason to suffer an actual heart attack if there is reason for the Chargers to
need a second half comeback to defeat the Dolphins. Of course, he probably felt that way
when the Chargers allowed the Raiders to tie the game with 3 minutes left last week, but the
Chargers were once again able to pull it out. What’s most important for the gambler to realize
is that San Diego is an extremely talented but inconsistent team that has yet to coalesce.
Shawne Merriman’s injury has had an incredibly detrimental effect and the defense remains
a trouble spot that could be exploited by a creative offensive package out of Miami offensive
coordinator, Dan Henning. While the Miami defense hasn’t been spectacular, they have managed
to hang with solid offenses for most of the year. Having the bye week to game plan
should help the Dolphins hang with the Chargers for most of this game. Ultimately, the superior
firepower of the Chargers will cement the outcome, but be wary of an inflated point
spread and a Miami coaching staff that will do whatever it takes to even up the playing field
on game day. SAN DIEGO 27-20.



*CAROLINA over KANSAS CITY by 13
The absolute lack of any kind of pass rush or run defense by the Denver Broncos made the
Kansas City Chiefs look like a legitimate NFL offense for one week, at least. However, facing
an elite level defense like Carolina on the road will revert the Chiefs right back to their pedestrian
performances of the first three weeks. Damon Huard, who was benched for Tyler
Thigpen due to injury and ineffectiveness, will prove to be a great target against the strong
Carolina pass rush and the combination of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will face
little resistance against an inexperienced and inconsistent Kansas City front seven.
Conversely, Larry Johnson will find it difficult to put up another 100-yard game against a
stout run defense that has depth on the defensive line and fast linebackers to chase down
running backs in pursuit. It’s not like LJ is the fastest running back around and he’ll find it
more difficult to break tackles against a defense that does more than just stick an arm out
when trying to stop a moving object. The aging Patrick Surtain and his fellow cornerbacks
will prove witness to the improving rapport between Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, which
in turn will open up the entire Carolina passing offense. Just witness what Muhsin
Muhammad did last week – while that is certainly not a performance that will repeat every
week, the return of Smith gives the Panthers one more option to worry the defense. CAROLINA
23-10.



*PHILADELPHIA over WASHINGTON by 3
Redskins are off a hard-fought win against division rival Dallas, the kind of thing that sometimes
can take the air out of a team temporarily. Yet the points we said were coming
Washington’s way in the Gibbs (ZZZzzz)-to-Zorn switch have materialized: 29, 24, 26 since
the opening night stonewalling suffered in New York. Gibbs and Al Saunders are looking like
human anchors now. You wouldn’t want to be a Philadelphia defensive player in practice this
week after they allowed Kyle Orton of the Bears to look like a champ in only the first half last
Sunday night. They will be drummed into a frenzy and be looking to take it out on Jason
Campbell and the Redskins. Can they? The Eagles have always prided themselves on allowing
yards but stiffening in the red zone, which didn’t happen last Sunday. Campbell has
always had problems producing in the red zone, and one Sunday’s work at Dallas isn’t
enough evidence that this problem has ceased. Getting Westbrook back would help the
Eagles soften up the Skins’ D and take the pressure off their own. PHILADELPHIA, 23-20.



CHICAGO over *DETROIT by 2
Somehow, Detroit was 2-0 vs. Chicago last season. They did something they usually do not
do – win – twice. Therefore, they are capable of doing it again. They are a group of blockheads
seeking to rise above the label, an often-dangerous mix. They have the added edge of
coming off a bye week, while the Bears played the Sunday Night game vs. Philadelphia last
week. Once again, the Lions alleged brain trust was in front of the big screen, passing around
the Pretzel Thins and Diet Squirt, thinking about how they might put their players in position
to beat the Bears, and hoping that their quarterback, Charlie Brown-head Kitna, doesn’t point
the gun at his own team despite no real running game to support him, which is one reason
for Kitna’s repeated self-inflicted wounds. Detroit’s ownership kicked the architect of their
mess out of his chair since they last played, but Matt Millen wasn’t on the field or coaching
the Lions, and the Ford family still has major karmic payback coming its way for manufacturing
machines that have killed more people than any other invention besides guns and
bombs, polluting the atmosphere and burning precious energy in the process. The Bears are
healthier on defense this season than they were for either of the meetings vs. Detroit in ’07,
and their o-line protects well enough. CHICAGO, 23-21.


NEW ENGLAND over *SAN FRANCISCO by 8
Matt Cassell isn’t Tom Brady – both of their mothers and the entire world knows that, including
the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, rumors persist that rookie Kevin O’Connell, a third round
pick out of San Diego State, may see some playing time against the 49ers. Bill Belichick has
had an extra week of preparation time to limit the exposure of his team’s weakest assets
while realizing that new San Francisco quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has a tendency to hold on
to the football for way too long. Expect the Patriots to keep the pressure on O’Sullivan all day
long, which should result in Frank Gore receiveing a heavy workload. The 49ers just might
be able to hang with the big boys for a while, as the Patriots are traveling west for a nonconference
road game and may not be fully there mentally. But the prospect of chasing a 4-
0 Buffalo team should ensure that the Patriots pull out a victory over a team they have a
superior talent edge against. NEW ENGLAND 24-16.


*DALLAS over CINCINNATI by 20
Knee-jerk reaction would be to say that because Cincinnati went into New York as a two-TD
underdog and took the NFC East Giants to overtime, they will come into Dallas and stay close
with the Cowboys. Hey, they might, anything is possible, but it’s also possible that the
Bengals will have picked yet another bad week to be the Bengals, with Dallas coming off
their first loss last Sunday. Before the season started, we talked about how Dallas had prepared
itself for inevitable NFC East defeats by bringing in assistant coaches with recent experience
in the AFC, including new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, who was Cleveland’s
defensive coordinator for three seasons and game-planned against the Bengals six times in
that span. Even Wade Phillips, the head coach, game-planned against Bob Bratkowski’s
Cincinnati system when he was defensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Cincinnati is
no stranger to the locker-room string pullers, whose ego-bruised player puppets will be
foaming at the mouth to get their stats back up to par this Sunday. Winless Cincinnati’s
seams could be unraveling and if the Dallas pass rush is effective, it may not matter whether
or not Carson Palmer returns from a sore elbow. He missed a key AFC North game last
Sunday, so the injury has to be significant. DALLAS, 37-17.




*JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 8
Two straight game-winning field goals by Josh Scobee has given the Jaguars a .500 record
and a new lease on life. The Jacksonville offensive line has been slowly improving after a terrible
start to the season, as has their defensive line, and the performance of David Garrard
and the run defense is testament to that improvement. Conversely, any offseason talk about
Pittsburgh’s offensive line having turned the corner has been exposed as fradulent and erroneous,
after the way Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked around like a pinball all season.
The big quarterback is dealing with an injured throwing shoulder and has been battered
around every game without failure. The Jaguars should be able to exert similar pressure on
the quarterback this week and the absence of Willie Parker and the reliance on rookie
Rashard Mendenhall, who has noticeably struggled with blitz pick-ups in his young career,
should make the pass protection a precarious situation once more. The Jaguars are slowly
rising up after a disastrous start to the season and facing an injured Pittsburgh squad coming
off a short week of rest should help them achieve a winning record for the first time this
season. JACKSONVILLE 23-15.



MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 6
MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
You can buy the 1-3 SU and ATS Vikings cheap, despite the very real fact that they are transitioning
from the one of the best opposing offensive-defensive line combinations
(Tennessee) to one of the weakest. New Orleans’ running game, so-so at best, attempts to
dent a good run defense that did everything it needed to do last week in a loss, and might
get rewarded if they bring it again here. The Vikings will contain the run and they have the
speed on defense – especially at linebacker -- to chase down Bush on those screen and
wideout pass plays. Drew Brees has nightmares about floating balls over the line and into
Cover-2 defenses. The Saints’ ability to stop anything that moves with a purpose (do not
count the San Francisco 49ers’ offense as something that moves with a purpose) is highly
suspect. MINNESOTA, 24-23.

 

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL


MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn’t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can’t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They’ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts’ offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don’t see him having a problem picking apart Houston’s shady secondary. I don’t however think the Colts’ defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts’ misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.


FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson’s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins’ ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins’ defense and this ‘Dog should be ready to bite again.



DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.




TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES


Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn’t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There’s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that’s a very bad sign this early in the season.


Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they’ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.


Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren’t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.


Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It’s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn’t there without the blitz. I just can’t fathom why they aren’t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?


Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It’s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they’ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where’s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.


Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I’ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.


Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren’t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we’ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.


Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn’t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub’s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he’s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn’t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren’t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.

 

[ymmit2nd]

PowerSweep

NFL


4*Tenn. 23-10
3*Arizona 31-20
2*Miami + 17-20
2*NYG 30-10

3* KC/Carolina Under 37
3* Washington Under 38
3* Bengals/Cowboys Over 44
2* Pats/49's Under 42
2* Colts/Texans O46



4* Tennessee over BALTIMORE - TEN is 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history after a 4H win as a
Key Selection LW. BAL beat the Titans 27-26 in the last meeting in ‘06 but failed to cover as a 7 pt AF.
This game pits the Titans #5 D (#1 sacks) vs the Ravens #1 D (#17 sacks). The Ravens are off LW’s
MNF game vs PIT & teams are 6-20 ATS after dealing with the Steelers physical style of play. TEN is
11-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens have been able to insulate Flacco (129 ypg 58% 0-2 5.4 ypa) with
a strong run game but that has been vs CIN #19 & CLE #10 D’s which is inflated. While Flacco has
only been sacked once prior to MNF he’s only thrown 48 pass att’s which was tied for 31st prior to LW.
Dating back to LY TEN is allowing only 79 rush ypg (3.9) on the road. While BAL is only allowing 70 ypg
rushing (3.5) TY, CIN didn’t put much effort into WK 1 & CLE dumped the run game after Anderson’s
2 int put them in the hole. TEN QB Collins has fulfilled his role as a game manager admirably TY with
171 ypg (56%) with a 2-1 ratio in his 3 starts being sacked just once. TEN’s #8 pass D is only allowing
203 ypg (57%) with a solid 1-8 ratio with just a 5.7 ypa (52.5 QBR). While there is no line due to MNF
TEN has the better QB, is healthier with a very impressive defense with more rest & we return to them
as a Key Selection. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 BALTIMORE 10



3* ARIZONA over Buffalo - The Bills travel for the 2nd straight week but have a bye on deck. ARZ is
finally home after 2 straight road games. ARZ is 10-3 as a non-div HF & 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. ARZ decided
to stay out on the East Coast LW & they were unable to focus on the goal at hand with police escorts to
practice & spending their free time seeing the sights. They were down 34-0 at the end of the 1H with 4
TO’s converted into 20 pts & outgained 203-92. The came out strong in the 2H as they outscored NYJ
35-22 & had 27-9 FD & 376-170 yd edges. ARZ is expected to be without WR Boldin after he took a
vicious hit at the end of the game. BUF started slow vs STL LW being down 14-6 at the end of the 1H &
was outgained 210-96. They then rallied & scored 25 unanswered points. BUF only had an 11 yd edge
in the 2H but had 3 drives start on their 41 or better & 100 of STL yds came on their L2 drives. ARZ has
the #5 & #9 units which is impressive considering 3 of their 1st 4 games have been on the road. BUF’s
#17 ranking is skewed due to the success of their special teams & their #7 defensive ranking is vs a
STL team in chaos, OAK with essentially rookie QB, a JAX team with no quality WR’s & a depleted OL
& very beaten up SEA team. BUF will be hearing how good they are & front runners for the division but
expect an embarrassed ARZ team to come ready to play. FORECAST: ARIZONA 31 Buffalo 20


OTHER SELECTIONS

2* MIAMI (+) over San Diego - MIA is off a stunning upset win of NE before their bye & HD’s that
scored 24 or more before their bye are 13-5 ATS when they return. SD is in a tough spot here as they
are off a 1 pt loss to DEN, a MNF game, a road game vs OAK & have a SNF game vs NE on deck.
SD is 2-5 ATS in EST games. MIA is 1-5 ATS as a HD. SD gets a good matchup with Rivers who has
passed for 256 ypg (65%) with a 10-4 ratio taking on MIA’s #26 pass defense which is worse than the
ranking shows. They have allowed 242 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio & 8.7 ypa (114.9 QBR). The Chargers
also have a huge special teams edge (#5 vs #32). Pennington has been very efficient with the ball (225
ypg 64% with a 2-1 ratio) but its the run game with Brown & Williams who have combined for 311 yds
(4.4) that makes the MIA offense go. SD was down 15-0 to OAK LW & was outgained 199-85 at the
half & a slow start on a long road trip would be tough to overcome. MIA’s Wildcat offense caught NE
completely off guard & Sparano will probably have more wrinkles for this game. We’ll side with MIA
here as an Ugly Dog which is now 19-9 (68%). FORECAST: MIAMI 17 (+) San Diego 20


2* NY GIANTS over Seattle - Both teams are off their bye weeks & SEA expects to get WR’s Engram,
Robinson & Branch back for this game. The Giants initially suspended WR Burress for this game after
he violated team rules but he is appearing. SEA is 1-8 ATS after a bye under Holmgren & 4-13 ATS in
EST games. The Giants are 5-13 ATS after a bye. This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & SEA won the
last one 42-30 as a 3.5 pt HF. SEA was up 28-0 at the half & while the Giants had a 337-333 yd edge
198 yds came in the 4Q with the game out of reach. The Giants have won the yardage battle in all 3
games & have outgained foes 400-252 on the year earning 13 sacks. SEA has only outgained the hapless
Rams & were outgained by an avg 352-302 vs BUF & SF. Hasselbeck has struggled playing with
#6 & #7 WR’s starting with just 184 ypg passing (49%) with a 2-3 ratio & he faces the Giants #3 pass
defense. Manning has continued to be solid with 255 ypg passing (61%) with a 4-1 ratio & he gets to
take on SEA’s #25 pass defense. While SEA should be better with their WR’s returning the Giants are
at home, healthier & deeper at this point. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 30 Seattle 10







Indianapolis 31 HOUSTON 21 - The Texans finally get to play a HG but it’s vs a Colts team that was
stunned on a last second FG vs JAX. Dungy noted during the bye that Manning really needed the time
to heal his knee & improve his timing while the DL needed to assimilate their #3 & #4 DT’s which they
picked up off TC waivers. IND is 3-0 ATS after a bye but just 1-6 as a div AF. HOU is 9-4 ATS as a division
HD. The home team has covered 4 straight & the teams split LY’s series. IND beat HOU 30-24 but failed
to cover as a 6.5 pt AF as HOU opened the game with an 84 yd KR for a TD. IND had a 30-17 lead in
the 4Q but Schaub led HOU on a 75 yd 14 play drive to steal the cover. IND avg’d a 410-277 yd edge vs
HOU in both meetings LY. IND also expects C Saturday, LT Ugoh & TE Clark to return for this game but
SS Sanders is out for another month. Both teams are pretty even statistically (IND #19 & #23 vs HOU
#20 & #25) but HOU’s offense has been limited due to the lack of a true #1 RB even as Slaton only has
142 yds rushing (3.6) minus his 50 yd run vs TEN. Schaub had a good game LW with 307 yds passing
(73%) with a 3-0 ratio but JAX won the coin toss in OT & hit the game winning FG. Manning gets a good
matchup vs a HOU defense whose #9 pass defense ranking isn’t as good as it looks as they are allowing
160 ypg rushing (4.8). HOU does have a sizeable special teams edge but the Colts have put up 40, 36 &
29 pts after a bye the L3Y & the road team is the play in a higher scoring game.


CAROLINA 23 Kansas City 10 - This is only the 2nd time CAR has ever been a DD favorite & they are
4-1-1 ATS as a fav of 7 or more. KC goes from facing strong offensive team to a stout defensive team
& was a much needed bye on deck. CAR is in a flat spot here after facing 3 of the better defenses & a
beating a division rival as a 3H LPS at home. They now get one of the NFL bottom feeders & CAR has a
road game vs TB on deck. CAR’s win came at a heavy price as both OT’s Gross & Otah were KO’d of LW’s
game & their status is unknown. KC is 2-6-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC but CAR is 2-5-1 ATS at home
vs the AFC. KC snapped a 12 game losing streak but lost 1st RD DC LT Albert (knee). KC has only won
the yardage battle in 3 of their L13 games. The Chiefs were able to take advantage of DEN’s #30 defense
& RB Johnson rushed for 198 yds (7.1). Fielding a pair of rookie CB’s the Chiefs were able to hold a DEN
team that scored 41, 39 & 34 in their first 3 to just 19 pts. CAR outgained ATL 401-268 & forced them to
punt on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H and followed up with a pair of SOD. Delhomme had a standout day with
294 yds passing (69%) with a 2-0 ratio & 10.1 ypa. CAR is a poor HF but KC has struggled with power
rushing teams TY (OAK, ATL) & they are too young to take on a CAR team playing with confidence.

PHILADELPHIA 21 Washington 10 - The Eagles are off LW’s SNF game vs CHI & it’s not known if McNabb
played the entire game or if RB Westbrook & TE Smith played. The dog has covered 3 straight & PHI lost
to WAS 20-12 as a 6.5 pt HF LY on MNF. PHI is 2-5 ATS as a div HF. PHI has won the yardage battle in 5
of their L6 games thanks to a resurgent McNabb with a 377-264 yd edge going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS. While
McNabb has passed for 288 ypg (66%) with a 10-3 ratio the rush defense has been outstanding allowing
just 65 ypg (3.3). They have allowed 216 ypg passing (56%) with a 3-6 ratio & have earned 18 sacks.
WAS upset DAL LW with a good game by Portis (121 yds 5.8) & another efficient game by Campbell who
passed for 231 yds (65%) with a 2-0 ratio. WAS forced DAL to punt on 4 of their 1st 5 drives & held DAL
to 44 yds rushing (4.0). While there is no line due the SNF game, Westbrook should return here & we’ll
side with the home team.



Chicago 24 DETROIT 17 - DET did some housecleaning during the bye & the new front office immediately
turned the

 

[ymmit2nd]

Ron Raymond
1 2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET PICK
Pick # 1 Miami Dolphins (6.5)



2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Denver Broncos Under 46.5 -1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al for Sunday

3 Indy UNDER
3 Philadelphia Eagles
3 Arizona

Opinions Niners & Seattle
<!-- / message -->

 

[ymmit2nd]

Doug Williams

Here we go with Week 5 -- 2nd quarter of the season. We're starting to see some big lines, big matchups, and big byes.

The Picks:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Indianapolis Colts (-3) OVER Houston Texans (+3) -- Indy's coming off a bye week and they're going to be hungry. Steve Slaton might run all over them, but I still like Manning to come through for the Colts (and you guys).


New England Patriots (-3) OVER San Fran 49ers (+3) -- Ok, so if I told you last year that taking the Colts AND Pats at -3 in week 5 wouldn't be a no-brainer, would you believe me? Believe me now, bye week = rested, covering machines.


Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) OVER Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) -- I'm taking the home faves in this one. Big Ben has been taking a beating lately, and I just don't like the Steelers' RB situation. Go Jags.

Dallas Cowboys (-16) Over The Bengals (+16) -- taking a line that's over 2 TDs? Yes. The 'boys are just that much better than this dysfunctional squad. I feel a lot stronger about the first three picks...but why not this one too?

 

[ymmit2nd]

SPYLOCK

San Fran +3......5 units

 

[ymmit2nd]

ace-ace

$400.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The 'under' is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to "get back to basics" after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won't get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30's.

$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.

$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains - and the clock - moving. I also don't think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone 'over', so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy 'under'.

$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.

$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don't think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn't then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won't be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.

$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400

 

[RazorMX]

any chance of VictoriousPlay for NFL?

 

[SiberianExpress]

maddux sports

Football
#408 - NFL - 3 units on Baltimore +3
#424 - NFL - 3 units on San Francisco +3.5
#426 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona -1
#417 - NFL - 3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
#429 - NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
2 Added picks for the Sunday card. Going to take a pass on Miami and not force a play at +6, if you can get +7 -110 with a local I think they are a good bet. Everyone will likely to be on Jacksonville Sunday night so you may get a better line before kickoff if you wait. Getting the opportunity of Pittsburgh +6 or better is worth taking the chance of losing +5 which is a dead number in the NFL

 

[NickelsAndDimes]

bobby esposito 50,000 dime oddsmaker error?? i only ask because i believe someone said they will have it ?

 

[Heel_Yes]

I saw Dr. Bob's picks on the 1st page, but he has a best bet on NE and San Fran.

Does anyone has what that pick is?

 

[Piks]

Dr. Bob

BEST BET 3* San Fran


GL
Piks

 

[stuckforever]

Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3

thanks! by any chance, do you have the writeup?

 

[LongboardLarry]

FOOTBALL JESUS SUNDAY EARLY PLAYS

Dolphins+7
Seahawks+7
Ravens+3

 

[NickelsAndDimes]

is 2DIMES alive?? anywhere...hes missing in action..if so...check yo mailbox bossman :toast:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Contender Sunday Nfl System Club Play Courtesy Of Selective Sportssystems on Sunday They System Club Play Is On The Philly Eagles.game 414 At 1pm Eastern.the Eagles Qualify In A Few Tight Systems One Of Which Goes Against The Redskins Which Is Hitting In The High 90/s As Far As Percentage Wise Goes.last Weeks System Club Play Cashed Making The Nfl Record Even At 2-2.lets See If We Can Get It Over 500 Today.due To The Redskins Big Upset Win Last Week They Are Set Up In A Lot Of Negative Situations On Sunday,one Of Which Is To Play Against Road Dogs Between 5-10 Points Provided They Are Off A Road Dog Win,and There Opponent Is Off A Road Favored Loss.with The Big Dog Win In Dallas Coupled With The Philly Failure In Chicago Last Week Ill Back The Eagles Here On Sunday.the Record Of The Aforementioned System Is 0-11 Su 2-9 Ats Against The Skins.for The Rest Of The Card I Have A 19-0 Su-ats System Bomb Where Qualifying Teams Are Winning By An Average Of 17 Points Per Game.a 92% Totals Play In Nfc Action, Plus A Solid Home Dog Situation And A Bases Play. The Eagles Will Be Rated At 4 Units At 7 Or Less Bol Goldencontender.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with UNLV ( 2) and Ohio University ( 6-1/2) yesterday.

Today it's the Lions, 49ers and Cardinals. The deficit is 110 sirignanos.