Service Plays Sunday 10/25/15

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Top Two Hilton Contestants

(25-4-1): NYJ / MIN / ATL / OAK / CAR

(24-6):
: MIA / NYJ / DET / IND / CAR
 

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Randall the Handle

Buccaneers (2-3) at Redskins (2-4)

LINE: WASHINGTON by 3½
Tampa Bay won just two games a year ago. One of them was in Washington where the Bucs, as a seven-point underdog, embarrassed their hosts to the tune of 27-7. That game also marked the last time the Redskins were a home favourite. The only team they were able to cover against in four tries as home chalk last season were the Jaguars, dating back to early September 2014. Now, after being underdogs in all six of their games this year, Washington is suddenly being asked to spot points. That isn’t comforting. The Skins are a hurting bunch and are probably more anxious for their bye after this game than they are for the game itself. Washington will once again be without its best receiver as DeSean Jackson remains sidelined. He joins a long list of wounded players and this isn’t a team of depth that can overcome so many absences, clearly demonstrated against the Jets last week. Granted, the Jets own the top-rated defence in the league but these Bucs are not far behind sitting fifth overall. A healthy and rested Tampa squad can repeat last year’s result.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3½
Bills (3-3) vs. Jaguars (1-5) at London, England
LINE: BUFFALO by 4
They may have added some new deck chairs in Jacksonville but it’s still the same Titanic. For every step sophomore QB Blake Bortles takes forward, he takes about a step and a half back. Poor decisions, limitations with their ground game and weak special teams continue to plague the Jaguars. This will be Jacksonville’s third trip across the pond in three years. The Jags are 0-2 in England both straight up and versus the spread after being trounced 31-17 by Dallas last year and 42-10 to San Francisco in 2013. The Bills are likely to go with QB EJ Manuel again as Tyrod Taylor remains hurt. We have no problem with that as the QB change has the line dropping from Buffalo -6 to a shorter price of -4. That drop may not be justified. Manuel was decent in his first start of 2015 against the Bengals last week, completing 67% of his passes for 263 yards while passing for a touchdown and rushing for another. The Bills have been better on the road than at home this year with a perfect 2-0 away mark. Europe should suit them just fine.
TAKING: BILLS –4
Eagles (3-3) at Panthers (5-0)
LINE: CAROLINA by 3
Win within the NFC East and the division can be yours. Philadelphia somehow finds itself in first place after topping the Giants in a sloppy 27-7 win on Monday night. The Eagles head to Dallas next week and that becomes an important one as well. Could this be a letdown spot? Whether it is or isn’t, we can’t see the Eagles having success here. The Panthers are on a roll. Still undefeated, Carolina has won straight up 14 of the last 15 times it was favoured on this field. Validating themselves after a huge comeback win in Seattle last week, the Panthers have now won 11 of their past 12 games. The Eagles simply are not in the same tax bracket as this host. Philly continues to be error prone. It still cannot protect its quarterback and Sam Bradford is paying the price. Bradford has thrown matching touchdown to interceptions this year with nine of each. He’ll now face an opportunistic defence that can force mistakes, unlike the Giants and their weak pass rush where Bradford still threw three interceptions.
TAKING: PANTHERS -3
THE REST
Browns (2-4) at Rams (2-3)
LINE: ST. LOUIS by 6
The Rams may be a tempting take as they are rested and welcoming a Cleveland team that is playing its third road game in four weeks after an exhausting home overtime loss to the Broncos last Sunday. Still, St. Louis has had too much trouble moving the pigskin forward to be trusted, currently ranked 32nd in offensive yards and being the only team averaging less than 300 per game. The Rams are also 31st in scoring at 16.8 points per game, slightly ahead of the 49ers. Conversely, the Browns have scored more than 100 points over their past four games as QB Josh McCown is getting the best out of the talent around him. Cleveland battles, evidenced by last three games all decided by a field goal. That shouldn’t differ here.
TAKING: BROWNS +6
Texans (2-4) at Dolphins (2-3)
LINE: MIAMI by 4
While it was nice to see Dan Campbell win his first game as a head coach, that sis-boom-bah stuff wears off rather quickly in the National Football League. The lowly Titans were the recipients of Miami’s pent up fervour but this day figures to be different. The Texans bring a slew of talent as DeAndre Hopkins has become a top receiver and RB Adrian Foster has had a couple of games to get his swagger back. Houston is stronger in all offensive categories and now that coach Bill O’Brien has seen enough of QB Ryan Mallet, we expect a relaxed Brian Hoyer to perform admirably enough to pull off an upset here against a Dolphins team that isn’t magically fixed after just one improved effort.
TAKING: TEXANS +4
Jets (4-1) at Patriots (5-0)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 9
The Patriots won both contests with the Jets last year by a combined three points. Both games were in this exact price range, with New England failing to cover in either. So if your inclination is that the Jets play the Pats tough all the time and now an improved New York team is receiving these same generous points, the smart thing to do is to take the point, we’d understand. That doesn’t mean we’d agree. We must temper the Jets’ 4-1 start as they have yet to defeat a team with a winning record. New England is undefeated. The Pats are No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in both total yards and yards passing and QB Tom Brady has 14 touchdowns to 1 interception to go along with a league-best 118.4 quarterback rating.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –9
Vikings (3-2) at Lions (1-5)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 2½
Third home game in a row for the Lions and it comes after an all-out effort to beat the Bears last week for the Lions’ first win of the year. The first game of the set had Detroit getting crushed by visiting Arizona. To close out this trio of home games, they’ll have to take on a Minnesota team that has already defeated the Leos back in Week 2 when RB Adrian Peterson scampered for 192 total yards. Therein lies the problem as Detroit is weak defensively, especially against the run while at the same time, they can’t run the ball at all. Right now, Minny has the inside track for a wild card berth. To stay the course, they’ll need to win against these types and they should here.
TAKING: VIKINGS -2½
Falcons (5-1) at Titans (1-4)
LINE: ATLANTA by 4½
This one looks fishy. Atlanta has the firepower to roll over this feeble opponent but the line doesn’t quite indicate that. The linemaker has to be giving some merit to Tennessee for playing a rare fourth consecutive home game, the Titans being here for five straight weeks with a bye thrown in. While the Titans haven’t won yet during this extended home stand, they lost by just two to the Colts and by a single point to the Bills. QB Marcus Mariota’s status is up in the air for this one as his knee tries to heal but if he can’t go, Zach Mettenberger gets the call. Mettenberger possesses a good arm and with Atlanta not having much in the pass rush department, either Mariota or Mettenberger could have success here.
TAKING: TITANS +4½
Saints (2-4) at Colts (3-3)
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 4½
Lots of points expected in this contest as both teams have capable quarterbacks but iffy defences. Given the choice, we prefer the home town Colts as Indy usually beats up on visitors, especially the subpar type. Indianapolis is currently on a 20-7 run versus the spread against sub .500 opposition. The Colts played fairly well against the superior Patriots last week, perhaps tuning them up for a strong run. Andrew Luck’s shoulder seems fine after throwing for 312 yards and three TDs with no interceptions against New England. It also helps the acclaimed quarterbacks that the Saints give up far too many points, 27.3 per game and a league-worst 409 yards per contest. Saints aren't very profitable outside of Louisiana with just two covers in their past eight road games.
TAKING: COLTS –4½
Raiders (2-3) at Chargers (2-4)
LINE: SAN DIEGO by 4
Simply put, the Chargers play in too many close games to ask them to win by a margin, even when dropping down in class to this opponent. Besides, the Raiders aren’t quite the doormats they’ve been in the past and San Diego has struggled with its division mate with just one cover in its previous six encounters. With Oakland finally having some playmakers on offence, namely at the receiver position, the Raiders should be able to earn their fair share against the Bolts’ suspect pass defence. Oakland has had an extra week’s rest before heading down the Californian coast and they figure to be fresher than a San Diego squad that has exerted a lot of energy lately with its past three games all coming down to final plays.
TAKING: RAIDERS +4
Cowboys (2-3) at Giants (3-3)
LINE: NY GIANTS by 3½
Tony Romo for MVP? The Cowboys can’t seem to go forward without their sidelined leader and after witnessing QB Brandon Weeden’s ineptitude, Dallas will turn over the controls to veteran Matt Cassel. Whatever Cassel brings will be better than Weeden. Whether you think it will be enough to compete with the Giants or not, the G-Men are too screwy and unreliable. Of course, they’ll be looking to avenge an earlier loss to Dallas, a game that New York had sewn up before the most bizarre circumstances allowed the Cowboys to march downfield to win. While that makes for a good storyline, the Giants were a 7-point underdog in that one and even without Romo, we’re not prepared to give away better than a field goal against a Giants’ team that possesses a myriad of issues.
TAKING: COWBOYS +3½
Ravens (1-5) at Cardinals (4-2)
LINE: ARIZONA by 9
There, there Ravens’ fans. It could be worse. You could be rooting for the Jaguars. Baltimore is not accustomed to the dreadful start that has occurred this season but that won’t prevent it from continuing. The Ravens will take on an Arizona club that laid an egg in Pittsburgh last week. Coach Bruce Arians has too many weapons at his disposal for that to happen again and he also has the acumen to get his guys back on track. Baltimore’s below average secondary continues to yield huge yardage to opposing passers, ranking 29th even after facing subpar quarterbacks. The Cards are dangerous runners, passers and defenders. That figures to be too much for this downtrodden visitor, especially in a rare prime-timer for the hosts.
TAKING: CARDINALS –9
Steelers (4-2) at Chiefs (1-5)
Off the board as status of Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is uncertain.
 
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bookieshunter NFL Sunday 10/25/15
Cle Browns +6.5 (2*)
NY Jets + 8.5 (2*)
Total OVER 44.5 Vikings/Lions (2*)
SDG Chargers -3.5 (2*)
TB Bucaneers +3.5 (3*)
 

Dr. Bob who?
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Oct 18, 2007
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SaberHockey NHL Play for 10/25

1-1 yesterday, 25-14 YTD

Kings ML
 

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Football Crusher
Oakland Raiders +3.5 over San Diego Chargers
(System Record: 18-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 18-19-1
 

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Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild + Winnipeg Jets UNDER 5.5
(System Record: 8-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 8-7-2
 

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Soccer Crusher
Atletico MG + Ponte Preta SP OVER 2.5
This match is happening in
Brazil
(System Record: 837-26, lost last game)
Overall Record: 837-677-132
 
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Joe Gavazzi

NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK…New York Jets (+10)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10) 1:00 EST

You know it, I know it, and the line maker knows it. Even though New England allowed Indianapolis a backdoor cover last Sunday night, there is no way the public is getting off the New England bandwagon with QB Brady posting numbers of legendary proportions. Through the 5 game winning streak to start the season, Brady has completed 71% of his passes with a 14/1 ratio. Now the Patriots return home to follow a theme that has seen the home team be on a 29-8 ATS run in the last 37 New England games. Those are all good reasons to back an offense that is averaging an NFL best 37 PPG, and NFL second best 6.7 YP play. That perception is very real in the minds of the American sporting public. The reality is that the Jets have covered 5 of the last 6 games in this series, and enter today’s game under first year HC Bowles with the #1 defense in the NFL. The Jets’ ground game has an NFL best running margin of 146/4.5 to 83/3.5 over their opponents. The running game could well do business, or at least eat some clock, against the Patriot defensive line allowing 4.8 YPR. But it is the 15 PPG stop unit allowing just 269 YPG and 4.4 YP play which has brought attention to the Jets at this huge value price. Jets QB Fitzpatrick is no match for Brady, but the fact that former Patriot CB Revis is now in the Jets’ secondary could play a bit with Brady’s mind. Final reality is that when you get the best defensive team in the NFL at more than a touchdown, you must make the play.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | LOS ANGELES at EDMONTON
Play On - Any team against the money line (LOS ANGELES) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season
31-6 over the last 5 seasons. ( 83.8% | 24.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

NHL | LOS ANGELES at EDMONTON
Play On - Any team against the money line (LOS ANGELES) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
82-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.6% | 47.8 units )
6-1 this year. ( 85.7% | 4.9 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND
Play Over - Road teams against the total dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )

NFL | PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) off an upset win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season
214-63 since 1997. ( 77.3% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PITTSBURGH) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season
49-20 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
 
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Hondo

Hondo gives it his Best shot

Hondo’s downward spiral continued Saturday night when he lost two of three with Utah, Florida State and Ohio State to raise the NRN (nasty red number) to 2,147 strouds.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will hunt for pay dirt with his NFL Best Bets — 20 units apiece on the Bills, Giants and Dolphins.
 
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May 19, 2007
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SB Professor Original NFL Picks

System plays:
Tampa Bay +3
Dallas +3
Philadelphia +3


Other plays:
Indianapolis -4
 

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