Service Plays Sunday 10/24/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/24 cont.

• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS - OVER/UNDER
------------------------------------------------------------
--Ken Whisenhunt is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 23.8, OPPONENT 34.7 - (Rating = 5*)

--Pete Carroll is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Carroll 16.4, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 4*)

--Marvin Lewis is 7-0 UNDER (+7 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was Lewis 11.9, OPPONENT 26.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--Mike Smith is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was Smith 20.3, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 2*)

--John Fox is 28-13 UNDER (+13.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was Fox OPPONENT 18.4, - (Rating = 2*)

--John Fox is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after scoring 9 points or less last game as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was Fox 16.1, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*)

--John Fox is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was Fox 17.6, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 2*)

--John Fox is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was Fox 18, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 2*)

--Mike Shanahan is 28-10 OVER (+17 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Shanahan 24.1, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)

--Sean Payton is 25-10 OVER (+14 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was Payton 29.1, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 2*)

--Bill Belichick is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 24.8, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 2*)

--Bill Belichick is 34-16 UNDER (+16.4 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 23.4, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 2*)

--Pete Carroll is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Carroll 17.9, OPPONENT 11 - (Rating = 2*)

--Ken Whisenhunt is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was Whisenhunt 28.4, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 2*)

--Andy Reid is 29-14 UNDER (+13.6 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was Reid 24, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 2*)
__________________________________________________ _

• TOP RATED TEAM TEASER LINE TRENDS - ATS
----------------------------------------------------------
--CAROLINA is 37-3 (+27.5 Units) against a teaser line vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 24.9, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 5*)

--NEW ENGLAND is 48-7 (+25.8 Units) against a teaser line versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 22.1, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 5*)

--TENNESSEE is 48-7 (+25.8 Units) against a teaser line in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 25.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 5*)

--SAN DIEGO is 65-12 (+27 Units) against a teaser line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.9, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 5*)
__________________________________________________ ___________

• TOP RATED TEAM TEASER LINE TRENDS - OVER/UNDER
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 32-3 OVER (+22.5 Units) the teaser total in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 23.8, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 5*)

--ARIZONA is 16-0 OVER (+16 Units) the teaser total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 27, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 5*)

--OAKLAND is 15-0 UNDER (+15 Units) the teaser total in road games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was OAKLAND 13.5, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 5*)
__________________________________________________ __________

• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------
4* MIAMI +3 - (85.7%)
4* SAN DIEGO -2 - (82.8%)
3* JACKSONVILLE +9.5 - (81.2%)
3* BUFFALO +14 - (79.5%)
3* JACKSONVILLE +9.5 - (79.5%)
3* SAN DIEGO -2 - (78%)
3* CLEVELAND +14 - (78%)
3* WASHINGTON +3 - (75%)
3* BUFFALO +14 - (72.9%)

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-11 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.2
The average score in these games was: Team 27, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = +6.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (64.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (61-29).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG).
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.1
The average score in these games was: Team 25.4, Opponent 22 (Average point differential = +3.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (48% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-16).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (68-36).

--PLAY ON - Any team (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival against opponent off a road loss.
(26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-14 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average score in these games was: Team 19.6, Opponent 18.9 (Average point differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (39.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (75-43).

--PLAY ON - Road teams (BUFFALO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 23 (Average point differential = -2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (43.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (50-25).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (101-80).

--PLAY ON - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 23 (Average point differential = -2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (43.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (50-25).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (101-80).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG).
(32-9 since 1983.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-11)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.6, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = +5.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).

--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.5, Opponent 24.3 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (45.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (43-20).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (74-51).

--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (CHICAGO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(36-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-27 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 20.6 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (45.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (58-28).

--PLAY ON - Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (23-36 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.4
The average score in these games was: Team 17.7, Opponent 22.4 (Average point differential = -4.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (41.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-13).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (69-42).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (163-153).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/24 cont.

• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
5* TAMPA BAY/ST LOUIS OVER 37.5 - (83.9%)
4* MIAMI/PITTSBURGH OVER 41 - (81%)
3* TENNESSEE/PHILADELPHIA OVER 42.5 - (78.9%)
3* TAMPA BAY/ST LOUIS OVER 37.5 - (78%)
3* DENVER/OAKLAND UNDER 43 - (75.4%)
3* TAMPA BAY/ST LOUIS OVER 37.5 - (74.6%)
3* MIAMI/PITTSBURGH OVER 41 - (72%)

--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TAMPA BAY) - average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG) against a team with an average defense (295 to 335 YPG), after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game.
(26-5 since 1983.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 5*)

The average total posted in these games was: 39.5
The average score in these games was: Team 26.7, Opponent 22.2 (Total points scored = 48.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (65.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).

--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 38.5
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 23.3 (Total points scored = 47.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (51-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (147-133).

--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(30-8 since 1983.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.3
The average score in these games was: Team 28, Opponent 25.9 (Total points scored = 53.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (47.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).

--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 41.3
The average score in these games was: Team 24.6, Opponent 24.6 (Total points scored = 49.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (51.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (65-46).

--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG).
(46-15 since 1983.) (75.4%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 44.5
The average score in these games was: Team 21, Opponent 17.7 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (46.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).

--PLAY OVER - Road teams against the total (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(53-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.6%, +33.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 38.4
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 22.8 (Total points scored = 45.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 39 (55.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (126-84).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG).
(72-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (72%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 39.2
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 22.9 (Total points scored = 45.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 48 (47.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (194-120).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (584-470).
______________________________________________

• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------
4* BALTIMORE -7.5 - (83.9%)
4* PITTSBURGH -1.5 - (83.9%)
4* SAN DIEGO -1.5 - (83.9%)
3* TAMPA BAY -1.5 - (81.8%)
3* GREEN BAY -1.5 - (81.8%)
3* TAMPA BAY -1.5 - (81.1%)
3* SAN DIEGO -1.5 - (81.1%)
3* GREEN BAY -1.5 - (81.1%)
3* BALTIMORE -7.5 - (80%)
3* DENVER -4.5 - (80%)
3* TENNESSEE -1.5 - (74.2%)

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (BUFFALO) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.8, Opponent 6.2 (Average first half point differential = +8.6)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-20).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-49).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points.
(26-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.3, Opponent 6 (Average first half point differential = +5.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (65-43).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.8, Opponent 6.2 (Average first half point differential = +8.6)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-20).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-49).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (ST LOUIS) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points.
(27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 6.9 (Average first half point differential = +7.3)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (74-46).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (MINNESOTA) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points.
(27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 6.9 (Average first half point differential = +7.3)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (74-46).

--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (ST LOUIS) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.8, Opponent 6.3 (Average first half point differential = +8.4)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (68-57).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season.
(30-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 6.2 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (58-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (94-58).

--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MINNESOTA) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points.
(30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.8, Opponent 6.3 (Average first half point differential = +8.4)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (68-57).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (BUFFALO) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.3, Opponent 5.5 (Average first half point differential = +11.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (41-27).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-86).

--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (OAKLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG).
(28-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 7.7 (Average first half point differential = +6)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-35).

--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(49-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.2%, +30.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 6.1 (Average first half point differential = +8.5)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (104-88).
___________________________________________

• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF TOTAL SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
4* MIAMI/PITTSBURGH OVER 20.5 - (84.6%)
3* TENNESSEE/PHILADELPHIA OVER 21.5 - (75%)
3* NEW ORLEANS/CLEVELAND OVER 22 - (73.8%)
3* SEATTLE/ARIZONA OVER 20 - (73.6%)
3* CAROLINA/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 18 - (73%)
3* TAMPA BAY/ST LOUIS OVER 19 - (71.7%)

--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (PITTSBURGH) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(33-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +26.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.8, Opponent 11.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.6)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (64-46).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TENNESSEE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.
(39-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 23
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.6, Opponent 12.1 (Total first half points scored = 28.7)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (80-53).

--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (NEW ORLEANS) - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(45-16 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.8%, +27.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.4, Opponent 10 (Total first half points scored = 25.4)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-13).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-62).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SEATTLE) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs.
(78-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +47.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.5, Opponent 12.2 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (128-71).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (330-296).

--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG).
(46-17 since 1983.) (73%, +27.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.5
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (225-176).
___________________________________________

--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(86-34 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.7%, +48.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.9, Opponent 12.2 (Total first half points scored = 24)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (225-176).

 

[thekeyman]

Jack Clayton

Bonus Play


Sport:NFLGame:Cardinals at Seahawks Date/Time:10/24/2010 5:00PM ESTPick:CardinalsReason:The Cardinals (3-2 SU/2-3 ATS) come off their bye week after that stunning 30-20 win over the Saints, going with rookie RB Max Hall (0 TDs, 2 INTs). No, his numbers aren’t good, but he won his debut as an NFL starter, completing 17 of 27 passes for 168 yards. The Cards are off in Week 6, which should give Hall some added time to recuperate from his aches and pains. Wideouts Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could be back come Week 7, which can only help Hall's cause following the team's bye. Play the Cardinals.

 

[costa993]

Larry Ness

8* Panthers
8* Panthers/49ers Over
8* Falcons
8* Chargers

10* Dolphins/Steelers Over
10* Seahawks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DR BOB

3* Seattle Seahawks (-6.0)
STRONG OPINION* Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5)
STRONG OPINION* Buffalo Bills (+13)
STRONG OPINION* CHICAGO Bears (-2.5)
STRONG OPINION* Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

9* O/U BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT* UNDER PHILADELPHIA EAGLES/TENNESSEE TITANS (41 or better)
10* SITUATIONAL ANNIHILATOR* MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3 or better)
10* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK* CHICAGO BEARS (-3 or better)
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE* SD CHARGERS (-3 or better)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORM HITZGES

DOUBLE PLAY* Carolina (+3) vs San Francisco
DOUBLE PLAY* Seattle (-6) vs Arizona
SINGLE PLAY* Atlanta (-3.5) vs Cincinnati
SINGLE PLAY* Philadelphia (+3) vs Tennessee
SINGLE PLAY* Buffalo (+13) vs Baltimore
SINGLE PLAY* Dallas (-3) vs New York Giants
SINGLE PLAY* Under (43.5)- Cleveland vs New Orleans
SINGLE PLAY* Over (47)- San Diego vs New England

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Washington at Chicago (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Chicago -2.5
5 UNIT* Pick: Game Total OVER 40

Game: Buffalo at Baltimore (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Buffalo +13
5 UNIT* Pick: Game Total OVER 40 -110

Game: Cincinnati at Atlanta (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Total OVER 42.5 -110

Game: Cleveland at New Orleans (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Cleveland +13 (-110)
5 UNIT* Pick: Game Total OVER 43

Game: Jacksonville at Kansas City (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 37.5 -110

Game: Pittsburgh at Miami (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Total OVER 41 -110

Game: San Francisco at Carolina (Sunday 10/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Carolina +3 (-120)
5 UNIT* Pick: Game Total OVER 35.5 -110

Game: Oakland at Denver (Sunday 10/24 4:15 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Oakland +9 (-115)
5 UNIT* Pick: Game Total OVER 41.5 -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE MALINSKY

6 UNIT* SD Chargers/NE Patriots UNDER 48

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG SPORTS PICKS

NFL - 1:00 pm est - Atlanta Falcons +3 (5 UNITS)
NFL - 1:00 pm est - Carolina Panthers +3 (2 UNITS)
NFL - 1:00 pm est - St. Louis Rams +3 (1 UNIT)
NFL - 4:15 pm est - Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (2 UNITS)
NFL - 4:15 pm est - Denver Broncos -9 (2 UNITS)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Harrison

4 UNIT* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
GB Packers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Berman ( The Swami ) ESPN

Atlanta 24 Cincinnati 17
Kansas City 26 Jacksonville 14
Phildelphia 23 Tennessee 20
Washington 20 Chicago 17
Seattle 27 Arizona 17
Minnesota 20 Green Bay 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tips and Trends

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:15 PM ET]

PATRIOTS: New England is coming off their best game of the season, a 23-20 SU win over Baltimore. As a result of that win, New England stands 4-1 SU on the season. The Patriots are clearly playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they feel they are a bit underrated this year, especially without star WR Randy Moss. From an ATS standpoint, that simply isn't the case though, as they are only 2-2-1 this year. The Patriots will be playing their 3rd road game of the season today, as they have gone 1-1 both SU and ATS thus far. QB Tom Brady will need to be on point today, because points are sure to be put on the scoreboard. Without a legit running game, the Patriots have struggled to score points on the road this season. Regardless, New England is averaging an NFL high 30.8 PPG. Brady has thrown for 1,200 YDS this year, including 10 TD's against 4 INT's. Brady has plenty of receiving threats, including the addition of WR Deion Branch. Branch had 9 receptions for 98 YDS and a TD in his first game back with the Patriots last week. Defensively, the Patriots are still amongst the worst in the NFL. New England is allowing 23.2 PPG and 383 YPG overall this year. New England is 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog.

Patriots are 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Over is 13-6 last 19 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Fred Taylor (toe) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

CHARGERS: (-3, O/U 48) San Diego might be the easiest team to predict in the NFL. When San Diego is at home you back them, and when they are on the road you fade them. Whether it's SU or ATS, the facts are simple. San Diego is 2-4 both SU and ATS, undefeated at home and winless on the road this year. Coach Turner has to be on the hot seat, as clearly San Diego is far more talented than their 2-4 record would indicate. QB Phillip Rivers is putting up huge offensive numbers, all for not. Rivers has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this season, the only QB in the NFL over 2,000 YDS. Rivers leads an offense that is averaging 26.2 PPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego has slipped up over the past 2 weeks. San Diego has allowed St. Louis and Oakland combine for 55 points. The Chargers special teams have been arguably the worst in football. Time and time again this unit has let down the whole team, and cost them a victory. The Chargers are 6-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.

Chargers are 6-1 ATS last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers [NBC | 8:30 PM ET]

VIKINGS: Minnesota is coming off a big win over Dallas, a game that many considered a must win situation. The Vikings are 2-3 both SU and ATS overall this season. Minnesota will have to play their most complete game of the season today if they are to beat an emotional situation in Green Bay. The Vikings players will all have to rally around QB Brett Favre. Favre has really struggled this season, both on the field and away from it. RB Adrian Peterson can certainly help his team out with a big rushing performance today. Peterson leads the league with 110.6 rushing YPG this season. He's only scored 4 TD's this season, and Minnesota is certainly counting on that to change. The Vikings are led by their defense, a unit that is only allowing 18.7 PPG this year. Minnesota defends the pass well, as they only allow 192 passing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. Against the highly aggressive Packers aerial attack, the Vikings pass defense will be severely tested. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC. Minnesota is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog up to a field goal. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Vikings are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games overall.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44) Green Bay is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS overall this season, losing all 3 games by exactly 3 points. The Packers have lost back to back games, both of which happened in overtime. Tonight's game against the Vikings will represent the first time this season the Packers won't be a double digit favorite at home. Motivation isn't likely to be an issue tonight, as Green Bay welcomes Brett Favre back home. The Vikings beat Green Bay both meetings last year, so revenge is certainly at the forefront for the Packers. QB Aaron Rodgers will need to have a big game tonight, and he's more than capable. Rodgers has thrown for 1,546 YDS this season, along with 10 TD's in leading this offense. Since the injury to RB Ryan Grant, the Packers have become even more dependent on their passing attack. Defensively, only 1 team has scored more than 20 PTS against Green Bay in regulation. Overall, the Packers are allowing 18.7 PPG, a stat they would love to improve on against their bitter nemesis. The Packers are 5-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as the listed favorite. Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on grass.

Packers are 17-8 ATS last 25 games against the NFC North.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 7 games

Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)—Home team is 0-5 in Miami games, with Fish losing 31-23/41-14 in pair of divisional home games, allowing six TDs on 17 drives, with no takeaways (-5). Steelers won last four series games by average score of 18-11; they’ve won five of last seven visits here (after losing first six visits to Miami). Pitt averaged 9.5 ypa in Big Ben’s return last week, converting 7-14 on 3rd down; they had averaged 6.04 in four games Ben missed, converting 14-49 (28.6%) on 3rd down. In five games, Fish have yet to start drive in enemy territory; opponents have eight, scoring 20 points. Steelers are 8-14 as road favorite since 2006. Miami is 5-9 as a home dog since 2007.

Bengals (2-3) @ Falcons (4-2)—Cincy is 2-9 vs spread (1-4-1 SU) in game following its last six byes; they’re 3-8-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a post-bye underdog- they’re making only second visit in last 20 years to Atlanta, where Falcons are 2-0 (winning 41-7/16-14) this year. Birds are 11-4-1 as home favorite since ’07. Atlanta is 7-2 vs spread in game before its last nine byes; they allowed only two TDs on 19 drives in two home games, but Eagles’ 10.7 ypa last week is red flag. Falcons are just 15-43 on 3rd down last three games (were 26-51 in first three). NFC South teams are just 2-5-1 vs. spread this year as favorite in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 6-4-2 vs spread outside their division, 3-2-2 as a dog.

Jaguars (3-3) @ Chiefs (3-3)—Jaguars have losses by 25-25-27 points, but won other three games, scoring average of 30.3 ppg; Garrard had concussion Monday night, am guessing Edwards starts here- there was no #3 QB Monday, so they’ll probably re-sign former #3 QB Nall as backup. Jags averaged 7.4+ ypa in three wins, 6.3/1.4/4.6 in losses; last week in Houston was first time this year Chiefs allowed more than 7.1 ypa. KC forced 11 3/outs on 25 dirves in winning first two home games, allowing 12 ppg. Road trip on short week after dismal performance by Jags Monday night; they’re 6-2 overall vs Chiefs, with four of last five wins by 6 or less points. KC scored 30—35 in their two series wins, averaged 14.3 peg in six losses.

Eagles (4-2) @ Titans (4-2)—Tennessee off solid win Monday night; they’ve scored 29+ points in all four wins, 11-20 in losses; Philly held three of last four opponents to 17 or less points (gave up seven TDs on 45 drives). Titans lost last two home games, to Pitt/Denver; they’re 9-7 as home favorite last 2+ years. Eagles are 3-0 on road, scoring 30 ppg (11 TDs on 36 drives)- they averaged 10.7 ypa vs Falcons last week, but explosive WR Jackson probably out for this (concussion). Eagles won 40-26/34-14 in its pre-bye games last two years. Titans are +11 in turnovers in four wins (12-1), -7 in two losses (2-9). Philly had positive turnover ratio in five of six games. AFC South teams are just 4-6-2 vs spread at home in non-divisional home games this year.

Redskins (3-3) @ Bears (4-2)—Bears were 6-14 on 3rd down in season opener vs. Lions; since then, they’re unspeakably bad 7-60 (11.7%) on 3rd down, 3-40 last three games. Chicago QB’s been sacked 19 times last three games, with only three TDs on last 42 drives, as Cutler shows inability/unwillingless to make quick dumpoff passes to beat blitz that are essential in running Martz Madness. Washington is 11-3 in last 14 series games, winning five of last six played here; average total in last three games is 26.3. Skins scored 16.5 ppg in splitting pair of road games; five of their six games were decided by 6 or less points, with underdogs 4-0-2 vs spread in their games. NFC North teams are 8-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2)—All six Cleveland games have been within six points at half, with Browns leading four of six, but they’ve been outscored 68-27 in second half of games, losing road games by 3-7-18 points (1-1-1 as road dog this year, 6-4-1 in last 11 as road dog). Road team won all three series games; Browns won 21-16/24-15 in previous visits here. Saints are 0-2-1 as home fave this year, scoring 14-24-16 points (six TDs on 27 home drives); in their two losses, they had three TDs, three FGs on eight red zone drives (six TDs, five FGs on 14 red zone drives in their wins). Browns’ QB McCoy was respectable in NFL debut last week, but They’ve still turned ball over three times in each of last two games, and few teams can win doing that. NFC South teams just 2-5-2 vs. spread as non-divisional favorite.

Bills (0-5) @ Ravens (4-2)— You watch Edwards play QB For Jags Monday night and you wonder how a winless team can just cut him; Bills have been terrible this year, giving up 34-38-38-36 points in last four games, allowing 17 TDs on 42 drives. They even lost by 10 at home to Jags when they were +3 in turnovers- that doesn’t happen much. You’d think they’d have shot at Ravens taking them lightly, but doubtful with former Bill McGehee running ball for angry Raven team that lost tough OT game in Foxboro last week. Only one of four Baltimore wins this year is by more than seven points. Average total in last four series games is 27.0, with home side winning last three; Baltimore just 2-6 vs. spread in last eight pre-bye games (1-3 as favorite). Bills are 4-1 SU in last five post-bye games (5-2-1 as post-bye dog since ’95).

|49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5)— These two are combined 1-10, but were favored in six of the 11 games. Carolina going back to Moore at QB after scoring 8.5 ppg in last four games (four TDs on 47 drives); they’ve won six of last eight games vs. 49ers, with average total in last three 52.0. Niners got first win at home in rain last week; they’re 0-3 on road this year, scoring 6-10-14 points, and 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorite since 2002. Panthers lost last two games despite being positive in TO’s both games; they’re 0-3 at home, scoring 7-7-6 points- since ’06, they’re 4-6 as a home dog. NFC West teams are 1-3 as non-divisional favorites; NFC South teams are 3-9-2 against the spread in non-divisional games, 1-4 if an underdog.

Rams (3-3) @ Bucs (3-2)—St Louis has trailed at half just once this year, but they’ve lost last five road games overall, scoring just 9.2 ppg; they’ve been outscored 34-3 in second half of last two games. Jackson needs big day against Buc defense that in last three games gave up average of 187.3 rushing yards/week. Bucs are 3-0 if they score 17+ points; they were held to 13/6 in losses- they don’t have a sack in last three games, so Bradford should have time to hit his newest WR, 6-5 Alexander. Bucs were outscored 55-13 in first half of last three games. In three wins, Rams averaged 6.1/6.4/5.4 ypa- they were held under five yards/pass attempt in all three losses. Since start of ’07 season, Rams are 10-15 as road dogs; they’re 1-1 on road this year.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)—Battle for first in better-than-advertised NFC West. Arizona won six of last seven series games, winning last four, the last three by 11+ points; Redbirds won last two visits here, 27-20/26-3, but they lost last two road games 41-7/41-10 after winning road opener at St Louis. Seahawks won both home games, 31-6 over 49ers, 27-20 over Chargers. In last two games, Arizona has four TDs, but three of them were scored by defense, and fourth came on 2-yard drive where it took three plays to score (on fumble recovery by an OL). Undrafted rookie QB Hall gets first road start here; Arizona averaged 4.6 ypa or less in each of last four games, giving up 13 sacks in last two games. Over is 4-0 in Cardinals’ last four games, 3-1 in Seattle’s last four.

Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4)—Schizophrenic San Diego is 0-4 on road, but won its two home games 38-13/41-10, scoring 10 TDs on 20 drives; they’re 2-4 despite being favored by 4.5+ points in every game so far- they’ve got nine takeaways (+5) n their two wins, two (-8) in their losses. Patriots are 1-1 on road, but needed TDs on INT, kick return and blocked FG to pull away in Miami (first NFL team to score TDs that way in same game). First road game without star WR Moss—could they be looking ahead to Vikings’ (and Moss’s) visit to Foxboro next week? Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, with teams splitting last six after Pats had won previous 10. Since 2003, Bolts are 27-16-2 as home favorite, Patriots 15-5-1 as road underdogs. Four of five New England games went over the total.

Raiders (2-4) @ Broncos (2-4)—Raiders are 10-2 as road underdog in division games last four years. Should be noted that home favorites in divisional games off to dreadful 2-11 start vs spread this year. Road team won last four games in this rivalry, with Raiders winning last two visits here, after losing 11 of previous 13. Since racing to 6-0 start LY, Denver is 4-12 in its last 16 games, losing in last 1:30 last week on long pass interference penalty when Jets had 4th-and-7 and appeared dead. Broncos did cover only time they were favored this year; they’re now 5-19-1 as home favorite since start of ’06 season. Only one of four Raider losses is by more than eight points; they’re 0-3 on road, though—Janikowski’s missed FG at end of Arizona game is going to haunt them at season’s end.

Vikings (2-3) @ Packers (3-3)—Favre Bowl III finds Packers just second team in last 5+ years to play consecutive weeks in OT (’07 Jets played consecutive OT games, but had their bye week in between the two games). LY Steelers split consecutive road games in OT, then came home and lost to Oakland as 14-point favorites. Vikings swept Pack LY, 30-23/38-26; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 14-9 (+5) in Superdome, 29-20 (+4) to Jets, going 3/out on 11 of 23 drives. Key variables here are whether Packer LB Matthews will be healthy enough to torment now-immobile Favre into hurried throws, and how much of playbook has Moss digested. Last four Packer games were all decided by 2-3 points, with dog covering all four. Five of six Green Bay games stayed under total.


Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4)—These celebration penalties are a problem for Dallas; in their last three losses, they lost field position battle by 13-15-19 yards, which is a lot!!! Dallas lost four of last five series games; average total in last nine series tilts is surprisingly high 51.8. Over their last 12 visits here, Giants went LWLWLWLWLWLW, so if that holds, Dallas wins. Immature Cowboys got another 15-yard penalty after a TD last week, then allowed kick return for TD to open second half, last time they led in game- they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 30.5 ppg. Giants won last three games, allowing just 11 ppg (three TDs on 38 drives); over last 20 years, they’re 4-2 vs. spread as a pre-bye dog. Giants have eight takeaways in their last three games (+2).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Best NFL Bets

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 44)

Lambeau Field will be the venue for the Sunday Night Football betting affair in the NFC North, as the Green Bay Packers take on the Minnesota Vikings.

My, what a glorious opportunity this is for the Vikes! QB Brett Favre is coming back to Lambeau, where he threw for four TDs last year and dropped a cool 38 spot on the board in the city that idolized him for the better part of two decades. Minnesota has won back to back games and is the only team in the division that really looks like it has a clue at this point. A win could very well move the men in purple and gold within a half game of the lead in the NFC North and put them in a position to run away with the division title in the second half of the season, especially with potentially the key to the offense, WR Sidney Rice expected back at some point in about a month or so. Since getting WR Randy Moss in the fold, Favre has thrown for four TD passes, improving his total to six on the season. He has also only thrown just one pick in those two games after throwing six in his first three. Favre had a very efficient game last week against the Dallas Cowboys, as he completed 73.7 percent of his passes. However, he let RB Adrian Peterson do the majority of the work in the ‘W’, as he has been battling an elbow injury that has threatened his Ironman streak of starts that dates back to 1992.

The Packers really just need to find a way to get healthy, but know that that isn’t going to happen, it’s going to be a matter of buckling down and doing the best with what they have to work with. TE Jermichael Finley is really a key cog missing in this offense. He is the man responsible for the short passing game, while WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver tend to run deeper routes. The running game was cut off at the knees as well when RB Ryan Grant went down with a season ending ankle injury in Week 1. Granted, with all of that being said, the Pack have watched as all three of their losses this year have come by just three points, and in all three games, K Mason Crosby had a chance to win it. Is Green Bay just that close, or is it so far away that it isn’t even funny? A loss on Sunday Night Football would mark three losses in a row, and with the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons all coming up after that, three games of which are on the road, things are getting very, very dicey in Title Town.

So let’s get the facts straight here. Brett Favre doesn’t lose on primetime football all that often. He doesn’t lose at Lambeau Field all that often. He has never lost to the Packers in his career. Yep. He’s not losing this one either.

Picks: Minnesota Vikings +3


New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-3, 48)

If you had asked any fan to make NFL predictions for the outset of the season, the names of the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers would come up quite a bit as teams that could beat the Super Bowl odds and win the Lombardi Trophy. However, their NFL betting battle on Sunday afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium might prove to be the end of the line for the hosts.

The Pats have nothing to worry about this year at this point even if this game is lost. The biggest issue is how well the New York Jets are playing right now at 5-1. A win will tie for the division lead, while a loss could drop them into a tie for second and third with the Miami Dolphins. The first game in the post-Randy Moss era was a good one for QB Tom Brady and his men. The unit put up 494 yards of offense and 23 points in a win over one of the most ferocious teams in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens. Brady threw for 292 yards and hooked up with newcomer WR Deion Branch for 98 yards and a touch. WR Wes Welker also caught seven balls, bringing him to 33 catches on the season. The play of RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been okay, but not fantastic. He is averaging just 4.1 yards per carry, which might be why reserve RB Danny Woodhead picked up the slack this past week. Woodhead now has 141 yards and a score this year and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry. This is still the top scoring offense in the NFL at 30.8 points per game, while the defense is still relatively atrocious, ranking No. 30 overall with 383.0 yards per game allowed and No. 25 in scoring at 23.2 points per game allowed.

Especially with the Kansas City Chiefs playing a virtual slam dunk game this weekend, this could be the biggest game of the season for the Bolts. Both GM AJ Smith and HC Norv Turner could have their jobs on the line based on the team’s performance on Sunday. There is a bit of a silver lining here for San Diego, though. The Chargers have already played four road games against two home games, and very predictably, they are 2-0 SU and ATS at home and 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. At home, the team is averaging 39.5 points per game. On the road, it hasn’t even scored 28 points in a single game. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in a home game yet this year. On the road, all four foes have scored at least 20. The opportunity is going to present itself to make a comeback, especially if the defense continues playing like this. This unit has only allowed 255.2 yards per game this year, but it is one that has fallen victim to a plethora of special teams blunders on the season. That’s why San Diego is allowing 21.0 points per game, a very mediocre No. 19 in the NFL in spite of the fact that the overall defensive rating is top in the league.

This is the toughest game on the board to call, bar none. We tend to think that the Brady Bunch has the better squad, but my, is this a tough place to go play football. Because of the home field record, we’re going to give the nod to the Chargers, but we are awfully reluctant after the Pats burned us last week by beating the Ravens.

Picks: San Diego Chargers -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug williams
St. Louis Rams +3 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
The Rams had a solid win against the Chargers last week but seem to only be taking big games at home. The Bucs are 1-9-1 ATS at home since Raheem Morris took over, but they can pull it out.

Pick: Buccaneers to Cover the -3



New England Patriots +2.5 vs San Diego Chargers -2.5
The Pats are fighting for sole possession of the #1 spot in the AFC East. Look for Tom Brady to have a big day ripping up the Chargers D.

Pick: Patriots to Cover the +2.5


Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs Miami Dolphins +3
The Steelers are pumped with Roethlisberger back from his four-game suspension, and their front seven will give the Dolphins' running game a hard time.

Pick: Steelers to Cover the -3


Arizona Cardinals +5.5 vs Seattle Seahawks -5.5
The Cardinals are returning their number two and three receivers, Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, which will spell trouble for the Seahawks' pass defense (30th in the league).

Pick: Cardinals to Cover the +5.5

 

[dettim]

NFL 10-24-10

PIT -3.0
ATL -3.5
TEN -3.0
WAS +3.0
NE +3.0
MIN +3.0
-MNF-
NYG +3.0

Good Luck Guys,
Det Tim

 

[TinyBubbles]

The Boss

500% Untouchable Play Seattle

300% Bookie Buster Parlay Atlanta, New England, Seattle

200% Dog Pound Carolina

100% Silent Asssassins OverDallas, UnderNewOrleans, OverPittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SR COMPUTER PICKS
Sunday, October 24, 2010
1:00 p.m. Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons -3½
1:00 p.m. Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears Chicago Bears -3
1:00 p.m. Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans -3
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Jacksonville Jaguars +9
1:00 p.m. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers -3
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints -13
1:00 p.m. St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Bucs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2½
1:00 p.m. San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers +3
1:00 p.m. Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens -13 ***
4:05 p.m. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks -5½
4:15 p.m. New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers San Diego Chargers -3
4:15 p.m. Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Denver Broncos -8
8:20 p.m. Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers -3

Monday October 25th, 2010
8:30 p.m. NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys New York Giants +3