Gold sheet LTS
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16
NFL
TOP CHOICE 1 1/2 units INDIANAPOLIS +3 over Houston -home 5:30 PM PDT (Game #275)
NEW ENGLAND -9 -home over Cincinnati 10:00 AM PDT (Game #252)
"OVER" 44 points SAN FRANCISCO at BUFFALO 10:00 AM PDT (Game #261-62)
KANSAS CITY -1 1/2 over Oakland -home 1:05 PM PDT (Game #269)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 17NFLNY JETS +7 over Arizona -home 5:30 PM PDT (Game #277)
INTPICKS
NFL
#265
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Cleveland @ Tennessee
Take Cleveland +7.5
#253
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Baltimore @ NY Giants
Take Baltimore +3.5
#268
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia @ Washington
Take Washington +3
#260
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Chicago
Play Under 46
#269
2 Stars
4:05 PM ET
KC @ Oakland
Take KC -1
#273
1 Star
4:25 PM ET
Dallas @ Green Bay
Take Dallas +4.5
#275
1 Star
8:30 PM ET
Indiana @ Houston
Take Indiana +3
MLB
#908
2 Stars
8:00 PM ET
LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Take Cubs +120
Free Pick
NFL
#257
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh @ Miami
Play Over 48
NFL
#265
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Cleveland @ Tennessee
Take Cleveland +7.5
#253
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Baltimore @ NY Giants
Take Baltimore +3.5
#268
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia @ Washington
Take Washington +3
#260
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Chicago
Play Under 46
#269
2 Stars
4:05 PM ET
KC @ Oakland
Take KC -1
#273
1 Star
4:25 PM ET
Dallas @ Green Bay
Take Dallas +4.5
#275
1 Star
8:30 PM ET
Indiana @ Houston
Take Indiana +3
MLB
#908
2 Stars
8:00 PM ET
LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Take Cubs +120
Free Pick
NFL
#257
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh @ Miami
Play Over 48
HONDO
Football Week 6
Hondo clawed his way back to the .500 mark in Week 5 with a strong 9-5 record that moved him ahead of a few of the run-of-the-mill also-rans in the Bettor’s Guide.
As for the four journeymen in front of him, the scouting reports indicate they could be lacking the stamina for the long haul, like Hillary Clinton, which is encouraging.
Giants over Ravens: Ben McAdoo, by all outward appearances, has remained cool and calm during the Giants’ three-game losing streak. That could be because of his basic coaching philosophy: Talk softly and wear a big suit.
McAdoo might want to whisper to Eli Manning in his low-key manner that if he doesn’t raise his performance level, he will be watching the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
Odell Beckham Jr. wore gloves with the words “just smile” on them against the Packers. More appropriate might be: “Just catch the ball,” or “Just don’t run to the sideline and kiss the kicker’s net after you score a TD when you’re well on your way to a third straight loss and last place in the NFC East.”
Bengals over Patriots: According to recently released emails, there was collusion among the media, the Justice Department and the White House to assist Hillary Clinton win the nomination and eventually the election. Obviously, it takes a village to get a liar elected.
Saints over Panthers: A cat snarled subway traffic on the 7 train line near Times Square on Sunday. Donald Trump says if he were there he would have just grabbed the pussy and moved it.
Steelers over Dolphins: Robert De Niro directed a stream of curses at Trump on a get-out-the-vote video in which he closed with how he wants to “punch him in the face.” Somebody might want to explain to the 73-year-old actor, he’s only a movie tough guy.
Bears over Jaguars: NFL ratings are down significantly this year. Stinkers like this one won’t help the situation.
49ers over Bills: All that pregame praying on the sidelines Colin Kaepernick has been doing finally paid off with a start in Buffalo.
Lions over Rams: Saddam Hussein reportedly punished dissidents in a torture chamber at the Mission of Iraq, which is located near former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s home on East 79th Street. Rumor has it the SuperNanny’s crib has a similar dungeon-like facility he uses to punish those he catches drinking too many Big Gulps, cooking with transfats, or smoking.
Titans over Browns: Jim Carrey allegedly gave Cathriona White, his late girlfriend, three STDs, according to a lawsuit by her family. If that is proven to be true, his career could be going, going gono!
Redskins over Eagles: Hillary, according to one of her hacked emails, wrote: “Politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory.” But didn’t Bill Clinton tell Gennifer Flowers that Hillary didn’t know anything about that sort of thing?
Chiefs over Raiders: In the same email, The Pantsuit admits to taking “a public and private position” on issues, the way Abe Lincoln did when he was trying to get the 13th Amendment passed. That’s not the only thing she has in common with Lincoln. Honest Abe always told the truth, while Hillary, when asked by CBS’ Scott Pelley if she always tells the truth, responded: “I’ve always tried to.”
And Lincoln and Clinton also have famous quotes. For example Abe said: You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Hillary might have said: You can lie to some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, and, if you’re good enough, you can lie to all of the people all of the time.
Seahawks over Falcons: The 12th Angry Man will help cool down Matty Ice.
Packers over Cowboys: With the ’Boys having won four straight, a quarterback controversy grows in Dallas. Nevertheless, even if Jason Garrett decides to start Tony Romo when he is healthy over Dak Prescott, history indicates Dak soon will be back.
Colts over Texans: Hondo hears if the president thing for some reason doesn’t work out for Trump, he and Billy Bush will revive their “locker room” banter from 2005 and take it on the road in a show called, “The Vagina Dialogues.”
Jets over Cardinals: It’s a shame the Jets didn’t do all they could to save Eric Decker’s season before putting him on season-ending injured reserve. As long as they are heading to Arizona, they at least should have brought him along and given Tim Tebow a crack at healing the receiver’s injured shoulder.
Timid Todd Bowles needs to take a crash course from Riverboat Ron Rivera on knowing when to hold ’em, and when to fold ’em.
Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who told cops he had to “take a huge s—” when they busted him recently for DUI, caught two passes for 17 yards in his Jets debut last week. If he can increase his production just a little bit, word is he will be in line for an endorsement deal with UPS, aka Big Brown.
Best bets: Lions, Titans, Chiefs.
Thursday:Chargers (W)
Football Week 6
Hondo clawed his way back to the .500 mark in Week 5 with a strong 9-5 record that moved him ahead of a few of the run-of-the-mill also-rans in the Bettor’s Guide.
As for the four journeymen in front of him, the scouting reports indicate they could be lacking the stamina for the long haul, like Hillary Clinton, which is encouraging.
Giants over Ravens: Ben McAdoo, by all outward appearances, has remained cool and calm during the Giants’ three-game losing streak. That could be because of his basic coaching philosophy: Talk softly and wear a big suit.
McAdoo might want to whisper to Eli Manning in his low-key manner that if he doesn’t raise his performance level, he will be watching the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
Odell Beckham Jr. wore gloves with the words “just smile” on them against the Packers. More appropriate might be: “Just catch the ball,” or “Just don’t run to the sideline and kiss the kicker’s net after you score a TD when you’re well on your way to a third straight loss and last place in the NFC East.”
Bengals over Patriots: According to recently released emails, there was collusion among the media, the Justice Department and the White House to assist Hillary Clinton win the nomination and eventually the election. Obviously, it takes a village to get a liar elected.
Saints over Panthers: A cat snarled subway traffic on the 7 train line near Times Square on Sunday. Donald Trump says if he were there he would have just grabbed the pussy and moved it.
Steelers over Dolphins: Robert De Niro directed a stream of curses at Trump on a get-out-the-vote video in which he closed with how he wants to “punch him in the face.” Somebody might want to explain to the 73-year-old actor, he’s only a movie tough guy.
Bears over Jaguars: NFL ratings are down significantly this year. Stinkers like this one won’t help the situation.
49ers over Bills: All that pregame praying on the sidelines Colin Kaepernick has been doing finally paid off with a start in Buffalo.
Lions over Rams: Saddam Hussein reportedly punished dissidents in a torture chamber at the Mission of Iraq, which is located near former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s home on East 79th Street. Rumor has it the SuperNanny’s crib has a similar dungeon-like facility he uses to punish those he catches drinking too many Big Gulps, cooking with transfats, or smoking.
Titans over Browns: Jim Carrey allegedly gave Cathriona White, his late girlfriend, three STDs, according to a lawsuit by her family. If that is proven to be true, his career could be going, going gono!
Redskins over Eagles: Hillary, according to one of her hacked emails, wrote: “Politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory.” But didn’t Bill Clinton tell Gennifer Flowers that Hillary didn’t know anything about that sort of thing?
Chiefs over Raiders: In the same email, The Pantsuit admits to taking “a public and private position” on issues, the way Abe Lincoln did when he was trying to get the 13th Amendment passed. That’s not the only thing she has in common with Lincoln. Honest Abe always told the truth, while Hillary, when asked by CBS’ Scott Pelley if she always tells the truth, responded: “I’ve always tried to.”
And Lincoln and Clinton also have famous quotes. For example Abe said: You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Hillary might have said: You can lie to some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, and, if you’re good enough, you can lie to all of the people all of the time.
Seahawks over Falcons: The 12th Angry Man will help cool down Matty Ice.
Packers over Cowboys: With the ’Boys having won four straight, a quarterback controversy grows in Dallas. Nevertheless, even if Jason Garrett decides to start Tony Romo when he is healthy over Dak Prescott, history indicates Dak soon will be back.
Colts over Texans: Hondo hears if the president thing for some reason doesn’t work out for Trump, he and Billy Bush will revive their “locker room” banter from 2005 and take it on the road in a show called, “The Vagina Dialogues.”
Jets over Cardinals: It’s a shame the Jets didn’t do all they could to save Eric Decker’s season before putting him on season-ending injured reserve. As long as they are heading to Arizona, they at least should have brought him along and given Tim Tebow a crack at healing the receiver’s injured shoulder.
Timid Todd Bowles needs to take a crash course from Riverboat Ron Rivera on knowing when to hold ’em, and when to fold ’em.
Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who told cops he had to “take a huge s—” when they busted him recently for DUI, caught two passes for 17 yards in his Jets debut last week. If he can increase his production just a little bit, word is he will be in line for an endorsement deal with UPS, aka Big Brown.
Best bets: Lions, Titans, Chiefs.
Thursday:Chargers (W)
WAYNE ROOT
MILL--Dallas +
No Limit--Washington +
Perfect Play--Seattle -
---------------
Inner Circle--Cincinnati +
With a 2-3 record, the Bengals need to shock themselves and put together a great game on the road against New England. Both teams should be tested. Hopefully, New England has made themselves their own worst enemy as they have made the "return" of Tom Brady the biggest home game in years. Try getting a ticket! So the pressure is on them. Winning at Gillette Stadium would be a monumental task and after the loss at Dallas, the Bengals need to respond. Falling to 2-4 would put Cincinnati in dire straits, especially in terms of contending in the AFC North and reaching the postseason for a sixth consecutive season. Do we hear "must win"? Bengals WR Brandon LaFell may be the answer. This former Patriots standout appears to be comfortable in his new Bengals offense. Through five games, LaFell has 21 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns, on pace to have the finest season since 2011 by any Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green. Dalton has the weapons and now has to perform. Cincinnati had two streaks broken last week playing Dallas. First, Cincinnati won 10 straight games when Dalton had a rating of 100 or better, but that streak ended when the Bengals lost at Dallas (38-14) despite Dalton's 104.6 passer rating. Secondly, the Bengals went 17 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 134 yards. These streaks have to be relaunched today and very well could be. It's all about the red zone and the end zone for Dalton. So the Bengals will need Dalton to step up. The sixth-year passer has thrown for more than 300 yards per game this fall but struggled to lead his team to the end zone. He's 10th in yards but 24th in scoring. That's where their work, practice and focus was on this week with some different plays and schemes. Defensively, the Bengals can maintain some control in Brady's use of his tight ends. That's huge as Brady goes to them about 15 times a game. Cincinnati might not win outright in their must win game, but they will be within the point spread the entire game.
---------------
Pinnacle--Miami +
The tale of the tape shows a 4-1 Steelers team and a 1-4 Dolphins team. The Dolphins would love to get into a low scoring affair. The Steelers may not share that same feeling on offense. The offensive line needs to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger better as indicated by the nine sacks they have allowed so may continue to throw while hoping for the O-line to protect Ben. The Steelers are notorious for playing down to the competition. The big question today is this: is this a trap game with New England up next or a tune-up game for Pittsburgh's next game. The Steelers may help the cause by running the ball with vanilla type play calling. For Dolphins fans, the one chance Miami has is to connect on a few deep touchdown passes to Kenny Stills and/or DeVante Parker. QB Ryan Tannehill blasted his offensive line publicly and may have gotten their attention. There have been many injuries but most teams including the Steelers have suffered with them. The Steelers have won back to back games and scored 74 points the past two weeks and with the Patriots up next week, should have a more conservative game plan. It's very difficult to maintain peak performance week after week. Look for a huge game from Tannehill with another QB in Adam Gase looking over his shoulder. He does have the talent and weapons to make it happen. Tannehill has thrown for 4,000-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. In terms of those weapons, he has Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry to throw to if the offensive line can keep him upright. The fish will fight hard and cover the points offered by the road team.
MILL--Dallas +
No Limit--Washington +
Perfect Play--Seattle -
---------------
Inner Circle--Cincinnati +
With a 2-3 record, the Bengals need to shock themselves and put together a great game on the road against New England. Both teams should be tested. Hopefully, New England has made themselves their own worst enemy as they have made the "return" of Tom Brady the biggest home game in years. Try getting a ticket! So the pressure is on them. Winning at Gillette Stadium would be a monumental task and after the loss at Dallas, the Bengals need to respond. Falling to 2-4 would put Cincinnati in dire straits, especially in terms of contending in the AFC North and reaching the postseason for a sixth consecutive season. Do we hear "must win"? Bengals WR Brandon LaFell may be the answer. This former Patriots standout appears to be comfortable in his new Bengals offense. Through five games, LaFell has 21 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns, on pace to have the finest season since 2011 by any Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green. Dalton has the weapons and now has to perform. Cincinnati had two streaks broken last week playing Dallas. First, Cincinnati won 10 straight games when Dalton had a rating of 100 or better, but that streak ended when the Bengals lost at Dallas (38-14) despite Dalton's 104.6 passer rating. Secondly, the Bengals went 17 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 134 yards. These streaks have to be relaunched today and very well could be. It's all about the red zone and the end zone for Dalton. So the Bengals will need Dalton to step up. The sixth-year passer has thrown for more than 300 yards per game this fall but struggled to lead his team to the end zone. He's 10th in yards but 24th in scoring. That's where their work, practice and focus was on this week with some different plays and schemes. Defensively, the Bengals can maintain some control in Brady's use of his tight ends. That's huge as Brady goes to them about 15 times a game. Cincinnati might not win outright in their must win game, but they will be within the point spread the entire game.
---------------
Pinnacle--Miami +
The tale of the tape shows a 4-1 Steelers team and a 1-4 Dolphins team. The Dolphins would love to get into a low scoring affair. The Steelers may not share that same feeling on offense. The offensive line needs to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger better as indicated by the nine sacks they have allowed so may continue to throw while hoping for the O-line to protect Ben. The Steelers are notorious for playing down to the competition. The big question today is this: is this a trap game with New England up next or a tune-up game for Pittsburgh's next game. The Steelers may help the cause by running the ball with vanilla type play calling. For Dolphins fans, the one chance Miami has is to connect on a few deep touchdown passes to Kenny Stills and/or DeVante Parker. QB Ryan Tannehill blasted his offensive line publicly and may have gotten their attention. There have been many injuries but most teams including the Steelers have suffered with them. The Steelers have won back to back games and scored 74 points the past two weeks and with the Patriots up next week, should have a more conservative game plan. It's very difficult to maintain peak performance week after week. Look for a huge game from Tannehill with another QB in Adam Gase looking over his shoulder. He does have the talent and weapons to make it happen. Tannehill has thrown for 4,000-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. In terms of those weapons, he has Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry to throw to if the offensive line can keep him upright. The fish will fight hard and cover the points offered by the road team.
StatFox Super Situations
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more
57-25*since 1997.**(*69.5%*|*29.5 units*)
11-7*this year.**(*61.1%*|*3.3 units*)
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
162-57*since 1997.**(*74.0%*|*0.0 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*0.0 units*)
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) good 3PT shooting team (>=35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 45% or higher
126-70*since 1997.**(*64.3%*|*49.0 units*)
7-7*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.7 units*)
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more
57-25*since 1997.**(*69.5%*|*29.5 units*)
11-7*this year.**(*61.1%*|*3.3 units*)
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
162-57*since 1997.**(*74.0%*|*0.0 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*0.0 units*)
WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) good 3PT shooting team (>=35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 45% or higher
126-70*since 1997.**(*64.3%*|*49.0 units*)
7-7*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.7 units*)
StatFox Super Situations
NFL*|*LA RAMS*at*DETROIT
Play On - Road teams (LA RAMS) off 1 or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game
76-37*over the last 10 seasons.**(*67.3%*|*35.3 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)
NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (DALLAS) off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, in the first half of the season
37-8*since 1997.**(*82.2%*|*0.0 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*0.0 units*)
NFL*|*PHILADELPHIA*at*WASHINGTON
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss
70-33*over the last 10 seasons.**(*68.0%*|*33.7 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)
NFL*|*CAROLINA*at*NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - Any team against the total versus division opponents, off a division game
137-77*over the last 5 seasons.**(*64.0%*|*52.3 units*)
3-6*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-3.6 units*)
NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Under - Home teams against the total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
59-26*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*2.9 units*)
NFL*|*LA RAMS*at*DETROIT
Play On - Road teams (LA RAMS) off 1 or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game
76-37*over the last 10 seasons.**(*67.3%*|*35.3 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)
NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (DALLAS) off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, in the first half of the season
37-8*since 1997.**(*82.2%*|*0.0 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*0.0 units*)
NFL*|*PHILADELPHIA*at*WASHINGTON
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss
70-33*over the last 10 seasons.**(*68.0%*|*33.7 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)
NFL*|*CAROLINA*at*NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - Any team against the total versus division opponents, off a division game
137-77*over the last 5 seasons.**(*64.0%*|*52.3 units*)
3-6*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-3.6 units*)
NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Under - Home teams against the total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
59-26*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*2.9 units*)
Wk1: 7-9 (-2.9 units) (1-2 Best Bets, -1.2 units)
Wk2: 9-7 (+1.3 units) (2-1 Best Bets, +0.9 units)
Wk3: 8-8 (-0.8 units) (1-2 Best Bets, -1.2 units)
Wk4: 6-9 (-3.9 units) (2-1 Best Bets, +0.9 units)
Wk5: 8-5-1 (+2.5 units) (2-1 Best Bets, +0.9 units)
Total: 38-38-1 (-3.8 units) (8-7 Best Bets, +0.3 units)
Wk6:
SD (W)
NYG -3
CIN +8
NO +2.5
PIT -7.5
CHI -2.5
SF +9
DET -3 (BB)
TEN -7.5 (BB)
WAS +2.5
KC -1 (BB)
SEA -6.5
GB -4
IND +3
NYJ +7.5
Dr Bob
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
The Jags pass Defense has been formidable this year, giving up only 5.5 NYPP, ranking 11th in the league. Blake Bortles has unfortunately struggled all year, with peripherals of 42.2% success rate and a 5.7 NYPP. Look for Brian Hoyer to regress from his career high 7.6 NYPP and come closer to the 6.2 NYPP he has averaged the other 7 years he has been in the league. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so we lean to the UNDER (46). No opinion on the side.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
The Browns and Titans are 2nd and 6th from an adjusted YPR standpoint, both averaging 4.8 YPR. Offensively, the Titans have failed to show explosiveness, gaining only 6.1 NYPP, which is also the same as the Brownies. However, the Titans should find an easier time against a Browns D giving up 7.3 NYPP. While Titans are susceptible to the big plays on defense, giving up 48% of their yardage into long runs and passes. Look for the visiting Browns to keep it close in a game of lower-tier defensive units.The advanced stats model sees value on the road dawg and Over so both the Browns (+7) and the OVER (43.5) are Strong Opinions.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
The Eagles defense has been phenomenal this year, and while they are not going to continue to hold teams to 12.8 points per game. They are the 3rd best defense on an adjusted defensive success rate allowed. The Washington offense has been just as formidable ranking 3rd in offensive success rate. Where Washington again struggles is on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 5.2 YPR and should actually be giving up more than the 24.4 points allowed this season, if not for the positive fumble differential. The advanced stats model sees the Eagles flying this week, as Eagles (-2.5) is a Strong Opinion and a lean to the OVER (44.5).
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
The Jags pass Defense has been formidable this year, giving up only 5.5 NYPP, ranking 11th in the league. Blake Bortles has unfortunately struggled all year, with peripherals of 42.2% success rate and a 5.7 NYPP. Look for Brian Hoyer to regress from his career high 7.6 NYPP and come closer to the 6.2 NYPP he has averaged the other 7 years he has been in the league. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so we lean to the UNDER (46). No opinion on the side.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
The Browns and Titans are 2nd and 6th from an adjusted YPR standpoint, both averaging 4.8 YPR. Offensively, the Titans have failed to show explosiveness, gaining only 6.1 NYPP, which is also the same as the Brownies. However, the Titans should find an easier time against a Browns D giving up 7.3 NYPP. While Titans are susceptible to the big plays on defense, giving up 48% of their yardage into long runs and passes. Look for the visiting Browns to keep it close in a game of lower-tier defensive units.The advanced stats model sees value on the road dawg and Over so both the Browns (+7) and the OVER (43.5) are Strong Opinions.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
The Eagles defense has been phenomenal this year, and while they are not going to continue to hold teams to 12.8 points per game. They are the 3rd best defense on an adjusted defensive success rate allowed. The Washington offense has been just as formidable ranking 3rd in offensive success rate. Where Washington again struggles is on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 5.2 YPR and should actually be giving up more than the 24.4 points allowed this season, if not for the positive fumble differential. The advanced stats model sees the Eagles flying this week, as Eagles (-2.5) is a Strong Opinion and a lean to the OVER (44.5).
