Stu Feiner / Tony Smith / Brain King / Howie /
SUNDAY 100 DIME WINNER #1 (SF1)
Carolina (+1) at Tampa Bay (36') - 1 p.m. EST
Tampa Bay (-1) 100 Dimes
I love Tampa Bay covering this field goal or so spread at Raymond James Stadium in this key divisional game versus Carolina. Tampa comes into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-2 in division games, 11-5 in conference games and 8-3 at home. But they are long overdue against these Kitties from Charlotte as Tampa is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. Don’t think for a moment that hasn’t been discussed all week long by Jon Gruden and the Tampa staff. Jeff Garcia is back under center for TB and he looked efficient in coming off the bench and almost leading his team to victory last week at Denver. Even at his age (38) the veteran can still make plays with both his arm and legs and gives the team an upgrade under center from Brian Griese. He may not be Gruden’s choice, but he is more accurate and efficient a passer than Griese and gives Tampa a better shot to win. That’s key this afternoon. What also helps is that TB has a rushing attack that with Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn leading the way, averages 5.5 yards per carry and ranks eighth in the league in yards per game. Carolina’s defense is tough, but Garcia under center gives them an extra dimension they have to contend with this afternoon. Carolina’s offense will have to deal with a Tampa defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher or a rushing TD this season. Added to the fact that Carolina is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and the odds that QB Jake Delhomme will be pressured into mistakes are rather high. Carolina may prove in the end to be the class of the division, but in this must-have game for Tampa, look for the home team to step up and make the plays as Tampa Bay takes out some frustration against their southern rival and wins this game by a touchdown.
SUNDAY 100 DIME WINNER #2 (SF2)
Baltimore (+3') at Indianapolis (38') - 1 p.m. EST
Indianapolis (-3') 100 Dimes
At 0-2 SU at its new home at Lucas Oil Stadium, it’s time for Indianapolis to put on a show for the home folks and it comes this afternoon with this solid win and cover over visiting Baltimore. This is the fifth meeting in as many years between these two clubs and Indy comes in 4-0 SU/ATS in the previous meetings, including last year’s 44-20 blowout road victory. Now they’re set to take on a Baltimore club that’s 1-8 both straight up and against the spread in its last nine road games and 3-11 ATS in its last 14 after a straight-up loss. I just don’t like what I see from this Joe Flacco-led Baltimore offense as the rookie QB (I TD, 4 INT, 61.9 passer rating) isn’t quite ready to be starting under center in this league. Baltimore will try to pound the football with Willis McGahee, but he was limited in practice this past week with a tender ankle. The difference in this one will be the Indy offense finally finding its mojo with Peyton Manning under center. He pulled it together in the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s comeback win at Houston and look for that to carry over this afternoon. The OL started slowly this year, but has made progress in recent weeks. Yes, Baltimore is a tough defense to move the football against, but with CB Samari Rolle out, their pass defense has taken a hit and that’s not a good thing versus Indy. The bottom line is that Manning & Indy have handled their business in the recent past against Baltimore as they match-up well against the Purple Birds and with this such a small number to cover, look for Indianapolis to play its best football game of the season in covering this small spread.
SUNDAY 100 DIME WINNER #3 (SF3)
Green Bay (+1) at Seattle (44') - 4:15 p.m. EST
Seattle (-1) 100 Dimes
Almost more than anything, you know the soon-to-be-retired Mike Holmgren would like to post one more victory over his former team in Green Bay, and that’s exactly what will happen latter this afternoon as Seattle posts this home win and cover over a injured GB squad. This Green Bay team is littered with injuries throughout the defense and QB Aaron Rogers is also ailing. He’ll be hurting even more by the time night fall as Seattle thrives on bring the pressure and they’ll hit the GB passer often and with force. Seattle got blasted last week by the G-Men and it needs to salvage this season as Sunday is almost a do-or-die affair. Yes Matt Hasselbeck and his bum knee look to be out for this game, but I have faith in Charlie Frye, and more importantly, Julius Jones (four straight 100-yard rushing games at Quest Field) and this Seattle ground attack to control the football against a GB defense that allows 161 yards per game on the ground and 5.1 yards per carry. Frye however will benefit with Bobby Engram and Koren Robinson ready to go at the receiver spots. This is a banged up GB stop unit that has really struggled no matter who has played QB this year. Rogers and his sore shoulder can make plays, but I do like what Seattle brings to the table with its pass rush, especially with defensive end Patrick Kerney. But the bottom line here is desperation and that’s what Seattle is in today as a loss today at home could really send this team in a free fall. They were outclassed last week by NY, but back at home in one of the rowdiest stadiums in the league, they will roll. Seattle is on ATS runs of 7-1 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss. This is the fourth meeting in as many years and the home team has won and covered all three previous meetings. That trend continues today as Seattle gets the job done in a must-win situation.
SUNDAY 100 DIME WINNER #4 (SF4)
New England (+5') at San Diego (44) - 8:15 p.m. EST
New England (+5') 100 Dimes
I’ll grab all these points tonight as New England very much has a chance to win this game outright. After being embarrassed at home three weeks ago by Miami, New England used the bye week to set things right and then rebounded with a solid at San Francisco last Sunday. Now having stayed the week on the left coast, Bill Belichick’s crew is primed for a prime time upset tonight. Having covered 20 of their last 28 road games, New England will be in this game all night long. I tell you what, this San Diego team has really missed Shawne Merriman on the defensive side of the football. No longer are the Bolts one of the league’s defensive elite and Randy Moss & Co., will make them pay deep tonight. San Diego is yielding a league worst 265 yards per game passing and 10 touchdowns through the air. Overall, San Diego is ranked a dismal 28th in the league in yards allowed and this is a New England offense that has been serviceable under the direction of QB Matt Cassell, who passed for 259 yards last week. San Diego allowed Miami’s Ronnie Brown to run for 125 yards last week and I expect New England to pound the run to set up the pass this evening. On the other side of the football, L.T. has not been himself this season as clearly this nagging turf toe injury is limiting his effectiveness. Philip Rivers is good, but prone to mistakes and this New England defense is playing with confidence after limiting a decent San Fran attack to just 199 total yards a week ago. New England has now won 12 straight road games and the road team has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. This is just too many points to ask a team with a losing record to cover versus a still very talented and veteran team playing with a chip on its shoulder. New England plus the points is the winning play here.
Tony Smith's VIP Release #1
Cincinnati (42) at NYJ (-9) - 1 PM, EST
NYJ (-9) VIP SELECTION
Tony Smith's VIP Release #2
Baltimore (+3') at Indianpolis (38') - 1:00 p.m. EST
INDIANAPOLIS (-3') VIP SELECTION
Tony Smith's VIP Release #3
New England (44) at San Diego (-5) - 8:15 p.m. EST
SAN DIEGO (-5) VIP SELECTION
King's 100 DIME NFC Game of the Month (BK1)
Chicago (-3) at Atlanta (43') - 1:00 p.m. EST
I will grab these points and watch these Dirty Birds win this game outright this afternoon at the Georgia Dome. Fresh from their outright victory last week at Green Bay, Atlanta is playing solid, confident football right now, doing the simple, efficient things you need to do to win in today’s era of professional football. They run the ball well, take care of the football and make defensive stops when they have to. And now they’re back at home where they have squashed two opponents this year. Atlanta, which is on a 5-2 ATS run, has done an outstanding job this year in picking up the blitz as rookie QB Matt Ryan has yet to be sacked on a single blitz all season long. And no team in the league blitzes more than Chicago, yet its success in getting to the quarterback with blitzes has been minimal at best this season. With Roddy White emerging as a big-time playmaker, look for Atlanta to burn their blitzing visitors from the Midwest (Chicago ranks just 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed) as Atlanta will break off some big gainers. Chicago will have to focus on containing Michael “The Burner’’ Turner, who currently leads the league in rushing. They might reel him in for a while, but at some point, Turner and/or Jerious Norwood is going to bust loose.
On the other side of the football, one can’t place too much dependence on the arm of Kyle Orton, especially when laying points on the road against a team that has a wining record and is feeling good about itself. Yes, Chicago will lean heavily on RB Matt Forte, but look for Atlanta to put a premium on stuffing the ground attack and make Orton beat them with his arm. If that’s the case, I expect another big game from Atlanta defensive end John Abraham, who has a league-best seven sacks and quite arguably has been the defensive player of the year through the first five weeks of the season. In essence, this is a very flat spot for Chicago, which opened the year in prime time TV game at Indy, then blew back-to-back fourth quarter leads versus Carolina and Tampa, followed that with an emotional prime time TV win over Philly and then had a big divisional road win at Detroit last week. And next week longtime rival Minnesota visits Soldier Field in what is setting up to be a huge affair. On the contrast, Atlanta has next week off and knows all it needs is a home win in front of a rowdy crowd to go into the off week at 4-2 and as the surprise team of the league. Ryan isn’t playing like a rookie and the Dirty Birds aren’t playing as the doormats they were in 2007 and Atlanta comes big at home in this outright home victory.
Atlanta (+3) 100 Dimes
King's Sunday 50 Dime Double Matinee (BK2)
Green Bay (+1) at Seattle (44') - 4:15 p.m. EST
The home team has won the last three in this series with this being the fourth meeting between them in the last four years. Last year in the division playoffs Seattle was blown out in the second half by Green Bay and went on to lose. That bitter defeat in which they went into the half leading will be a big motivator today in Seattle.
Last week Seattle was in a bad spot as they were playing off of a bye week and on the east coast where they historically struggle. Aaron Rodgers had a good game last wek for Green Bay but looked like he was hurting and will be facing a Seattle team that loves the blitz nad issure to knock Rogers round a bit Meanwhile Seattle is healthy at receiver for the most part and will be looking to get back on track with a big home win today. Take Seattle at home in this must win spot to get it done against Green Bay.
Seattle (-1) is the play today.
Seattle (-1) 50 Dimes
Dallas (-5) at Arizona (52) - 4:15 p.m. EST
Dallas owns the series lately with Arizona on runs of 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU since the Cards left the NFC East. Presently though the Boys find themselves on a 2-7 ATS run while Arizona is 7-3 AT their last ten at home.
This is a new Arizonat team with a new attitude. Expect them to play Dallas tough today with their fifth ranked offense and 15th ranked defensive unit. The Cards knocked the Buffalo offense around last week and will present a challenge to Dallas' intermediate passing game today. Dallas' -4 turnover ration against Arizona +1 will play a factor today. Turnoves and a weak effort do Dallas in today in the desert.
Take Arizona plus the points today.
Arizona (+5) 50 Dimes
KING'S SUNDAY THREE TEAM 6 POINT TEASER(BK3)
Cincinnati (+9) at NYJ (42) - 1:00 p.m. EST
Oakland (+7') at New Orleans (47) - 1:00 p.m. EST
Philadelhia (-5) at San Francisco (42) - 4:15 p.m. EST
PLAY THESE THREE TEAMS IN A 6 POINT TEASER (Current Line then Adjusted)
NYJ (-9) TEASED TO (-3)
OAKLAND (+7') TEASED TO (+13')
SAN FRANCISCO (+5) TEASED TO (+11)
Howie's Godfather Pick #1
Jacksonville (48) at Denver (-3') - 4:15 p.m. EST
Howie Feiner's Pro Football Godfather Pick for Sunday
Jacksonville (+3') 100 Dimes