SPORTS ADVISORS
Oakland (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at New Orleans (2-3, 3-2 ATS
The Raiders, fresh off a bye week and the firing of coach Lane Kiffin, head to the Big Easy for a non-conference matchup against the Saints at the Superdome.
Oakland built a 15-0 halftime lead against San Diego two weeks ago, then scored just three second-half points in a 28-18 home loss as a nine-point underdog. Kiffin was fired two days later and replaced by offensive line coach Tom Cable for the rest of the season. Against San Diego, QB JaMarcus Russell (22 of 37, 277 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble) actually had one of his better outings, but he led just one TD drive and accounted for both Raiders turnovers.
New Orleans suffered a 30-27 setback against Minnesota as a three-point home chalk Monday night, losing on a Ryan Longwell field goal in the waning seconds. The Saints were dominant throughout the game, finishing with a 375-270 yardage edge behind QB Drew Brees’ 330-yard passing effort, and Reggie Bush had two punt-return TDs. But they lost the turnover battle 4-0 – with Brees tossing two INTs and losing one of his three fumbles – had a blocked field goal returned for a TD and had 11 penalties for 102 yards.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when New Orleans prevailed 31-26 as a three-point road pup.
The Raiders are on an 8-17 ATS freefall overall and carry additional negative pointspread trends of 7-16 in October, 16-36-1 after a non-cover and 19-42-1 after a SU loss. They’ve also lost six straight games (0-6 ATS) to NFC opponents. The Saints haven’t been much better, burdened by ATS skids of 0-4 against losing teams, 4-10 at the dome, 2-6 against the AFC and 5-12 as a home favorite, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.
The over for Oakland is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-1 on the highway, and the “over” streaks for New Orleans are plentiful, including 13-3-1 overall (3-0-1 this season), 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 against losing teams and 10-1-1 on field turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (2-2, 3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Colts, looking to shake a sluggish start and get back above .500, take on the Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis benefited from a stunning late-fourth-quarter meltdown by Houston last Sunday, scoring three TDs in just over two minutes to turn a 27-10 deficit into a 31-27 victory as a three-point road chalk. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS in the Colts’ last seven games dating to last season. Against Houston, Indy took advantage of three turnovers from Texas QB Sage Rosenfels (2 fumbles, 1 INT) during the fourth-quarter rally, with LB Gary Brackett returning one of the fumbles 68 yards for a TD.
Baltimore lost to Tennessee 13-10 as a one-point home ‘dog, snapping a three-game ATS winning streak. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (18 of 27, 153 yards, 0 TDs) threw two INTs, including one late in the fourth quarter that ended the Ravens’ hopes. Baltimore also got outscored 10-0 in the fourth, overshadowing a defense that allowed just 210 total yards in helping the Ravens to a nine-minute edge in time of possession.
Indianapolis is on a 5-0 SU run in this rivalry, cashing in the last four in a row, including a 44-20 blowout last year as an 8½-point road chalk. The favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run when these teams meet, but the visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Colts have lost their first two games at brand-new Lucas Oil Stadium and they’re on an 0-4 ATS slide at home dating to last season. They’re on further pointspread downfalls of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 as a home favorite and 3-7 against the AFC. The Ravens have cashed in four of their last five starts, but they are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine roadies and are in additional ATS ruts of 4-11 after a pointspread setback and 3-11 after a SU loss.
The under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two. However, the over is on streaks of 8-3 overall for Baltimore, 8-2 for the Ravens against the AFC, 4-1 for Baltimore on the road and 4-1 for Indy against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
Cincinnati (0-5, 2-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Jets hope Brett Favre can pick up where he left off two weeks ago when they face the winless Bengals in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York, which took last week off, got six TD passes from Favre in a 56-35 whipping of Arizona as a one-point home chalk, making the SU winner 4-0 ATS this season in Jets games. Favre (24 of 34, 289 yards, 1 INT) staked New York to a 34-0 halftime lead, and he was greatly aided by seven Cardinals turnovers. The Jets still gave up 472 passing yards to Arizona QB Kurt Warner.
Cincinnati gave Dallas a stern second-half challenge before fading late in a 31-22 loss as a 16-point road pup last week. QB Carson Palmer (23 of 39, 217 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped the Bengals rally from a 17-6 halftime deficit to pull within 24-22 midway through the fourth quarter, but Cincy ultimately didn’t have enough offense, getting outgained 373-269.
The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 last year, barely cashing as a six-point home chalk.
The Jets are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a SU win, but they are on positive spread runs of 6-0 after a bye and 8-4 as a non-division home chalk. The Bengals, meanwhile, are mired in ATS funks of 1-7 after a spread-cover and 2-8-1 in October, but they have covered in their last two road contests.
The under for New York is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 8-1 after a bye, 6-1 against the AFC and 4-1 at home. The total has also gone low in eight of Cincinnati’s last 11 contests overall, and the under is 7-1 in the Bengals’ last eight against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
Carolina (4-1, 3-1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (3-2, 4-1 ATS)
The Panthers look to maintain their spot atop the NFC South and win their sixth straight game on Tampa Bay’s home field when they battle the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
The Panthers pounded Kansas City 34-0 laying 9½ points to win and cash for the second straight week. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was efficient, bolstered by RB DeAngelo Williams’ 123 rushing yards and two TDs. Carolina’s defense suffocated the Chiefs, allowing just 127 total yards, while the Panthers rolled up 441 yards and nearly doubled K.C. in time of possession.
The Buccaneers lost to Denver 16-13 last week but covered as a 3½-point road ‘dog, getting the cash for the fourth straight week. QBs Brian Griese (13 of 19, 88 yards) and Jeff Garcia (13 of 17, 93 yards) had similar stats, with Garcia offsetting one TD pass with one INT after relieving Griese (elbow injury) in the second half. Tampa coach Jon Gruden has said Garcia will start at QB this week.
Carolina is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 31-23 road victory last December as a three-point favorite. The Panthers have won five straight at Tampa Bay (4-1 ATS), and they’re 10-4 ATS in the last 14 clashes. Finally, the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
The Panthers are on a 6-1-1 ATS run overall and carry further positive pointspread streaks of 6-0-1 as a division road pup, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 7-3 inside the division. Along with their current 4-0 spread-covering run, the Bucs are also on ATS tears of 6-2 in division play, 8-3 at home, 7-3 after a SU loss and 11-5 against the NFC.
The under for Carolina is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in divisional play and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Tampa is on runs of 8-3 overall, 5-1 inside the division and 7-2 against NFC foes. Finally, the over has cashed in four straight series meetings at Raymond James.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-4 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Vikings, coming off a wild Monday night victory, look to even their record in an NFC Central contest against the hapless Lions at the Metrodome.
Minnesota edged New Orleans 30-27 in prime time, scoring the last 10 points of the game, including Ryan Longwell’s 30-yard field goal in the final seconds to win and cash as a three-point pup. QB Gus Frerotte (19 of 32, 222 yards, 1 TD) was mediocre and the Vikes finished with just 270 yards, while the Saints had 375. But Minnesota won the turnover battle 4-0 and returned a blocked field goal for a TD, helping make up for two Reggie Bush TDs on punt returns.
Detroit came off its bye last week and got drilled 34-7 by Chicago catching 3½ points at home, dropping to 1-11 SU and ATS dating to the middle of last season. The Lions were down 31-0 before they finally scored in the third quarter, and they mustered a paltry 185 total yards while giving up 425.
Minnesota is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in this division rivalry (5-1 SU), most recently rolling to a 42-10 victory at home last December laying 5½ points. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Vikings are in a 2-6 ATS dive, but they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home division games. The Lions, meanwhile, are on a plethora of negative ATS runs, including 0-6 in roadies, 5-13-1 in division play (0-5 in their last five), 3-9 against losing teams and 7-19-1 against the NFC.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven Lions-Vikings clashes overall and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in the Metrodome. Also, for Detroit, the over is on tears of 8-2 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in division play,
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
Chicago (3-2, 3-1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Falcons go for their third home victory of the season as they host the Bears in a battle of squads looking to move to 4.2.
Atlanta dropped Green Bay 27-24 last week as a 3½-point road pup, making the SU winner 13-1 ATS in the Falcons’ last 14 games, including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. RB Michael Turner (26 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD) had another strong day, and rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 26, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough in a game that was nearly even except in one category: Atlanta had just two penalties for 15 yards, while the Pack were flagged nine times for 97 yards.
Chicago blasted Detroit 34-7 as a 3½-point road favorite a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week. QB Kyle Orton (24 of 34, 334 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong game as the Bears rolled up a whopping 425-185 total yardage edge and nearly doubled the hapless Lions in time of possession.
Chicago is 3-0 SU and ATS in three games with Atlanta this decade, but the two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Bears won 16-3 at home as a 3½-point chalk.
The Falcons are on a 5-2 ATS run overall, but they still carry pointspread slides of 1-5 against winning teams and 5-9 as a non-division home ‘dog. The Bears are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1-1 against the NFC.
The over for Atlanta is on runs 10-2 overall, 6-0 at the dome, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-2 against NFC foes. The over is also 24-8-1 in Chicago’s last 33 conference contests, but the Bears have stayed low in their last four roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) at Houston (0-4, 1-3 ATS)
The upstart Dolphins go after their third straight win when they travel to the Lone Star State to take on the winless Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Miami, which flattened New England on the road before taking a bye, returned from its hiatus last week and stunned San Diego 17-10 catching 6½ points at home. The Dolphins have now won and cashed in back-to-back games against last year’s AFC title game participants. Miami’s “Wildcat” offense, featuring RB Ronnie Brown (24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD) at quarterback, continued to succeed, Chad Pennington (22 of 29, 228 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Fish rolled up a stunning 390-202 total yardage edge while holding the ball for nearly 37 minutes.
Houston comes in off a deflating 31-27 loss to Indianapolis as a three-point home ‘dog. The Texans led 27-10 late in the fourth quarter before QB Sage Rosenfels imploded with two lost fumbles – one returned 68 yards for a TD – and an interception, allowing the Colts to reel off 21 points in just over two minutes as an all-but-certain win turned into a stunning loss.
Houston has run off three straight wins in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), though the Dolphins covered as a 4½-point pup last year in a 22-19 loss at Reliant Stadium.
The Dolphins are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight AFC road games, but they remain on ATS slides of 7-20-1 against losing teams, 8-21-1 after a spread-cover and 5-12 in October. The Texans have covered in four of their last five at home, but they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus AFC foes.
The over for Miami is on stretches of 6-3 overall and 6-1 against losing teams, and the over for Houston is on tears of 6-0 overall (all against AFC opponents), 7-0 following a SU loss and 6-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (0-4 SU and ATS) at Washington (4-1 SU and ATS)
The streaking Redskins go for their fifth straight victory when they take on the lowly Rams at FedEx Field.
Washington pulled off its second road upset of a divisional foe in as many weeks, toppling Philadelphia 23-17 as a 6½-point pup to win and cash for the fourth straight week. In fact, the SU winner has now covered in 12 straight games for the Redskins dating to last season. Against Philly, QB Jason Campbell (16 of 29, 176 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) didn’t exactly light it up, but he also helped the Redskins post zero turnovers, and RB Clinton Portis (29 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD) had a big day. The Skins defense also allowed just 254 total yards.
St. Louis had a much-needed bye last week following a 31-14 home loss to Buffalo as a 9½-point ‘dog two weeks ago, giving the hapless Rams an 0-7 SU and ATS mark in their last seven games. QB Trent Green (17 of 32, 236 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got the start in coach Scott Linehan’s final game – he was fired following the loss – and interim coach Jim Haslett has already restored Marc Bulger as the starter for the rest of the season.
St. Louis is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in this series, including a 37-31 home win as a one point favorite in 2006.
The Redskins are on pointspread streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 in conference play, 6-1 after a SU win and 6-1 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Rams are on a 5-15 ATS freefall dating to the 2007 season opener and are in additional ATS ruts of 0-5 inside the conference, 4-17 against winning teams, 3-7 on the highway and 5-13-1 as a road ‘dog.
The under for Washington is on a 10-4 streak following an ATS win, and the under is 14-6 in St. Louis’ last 20 road games. However, the over for St. Louis is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 in NFC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Jacksonville (2-3, 1-4 ATS) at Denver (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Jaguars, desperate to get back on track after a slow start, travel to Invesco Field at Mile High to battle the Broncos.
Jacksonville is coming off a 26-21 loss to Pittsburgh as a 3½-point home chalk, failing to cover at home for the second straight week. The Jags got out to a 14-7 first quarter lead, aided by a 72-yard INT return for a TD by Rashean Mathis, then didn’t score again until adding their final TD in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville didn’t turn the ball over, but finished with just 213 total yards, while giving up 415, including 309 passing yards and three TDs from Ben Roethlisberger.
Denver found itself in a rare low-scoring affair, fending off Tampa Bay 16-13 and failing to cash as a 3½-point home favorite. QB Jay Cutler (23 of 34, 227 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a clean day, with no sacks and no fumbles.
This is the second straight year Jacksonville has traveled to Mile High, having notched a 23-14 victory catching 3½ points last year. The underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run in the last four battles.
The Jaguars’ 1-4 ATS mark this season has all come against AFC teams, and they are on an 0-6 ATS slide on grass, but they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 as a road underdog. The Broncos, one of the worst teams to back since 2006, carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 7-21-1 overall, 4-12-1 at Mile High, 3-12 as a home chalk, 1-7-1 against losing teams and 5-16-1 after a SU win.
The over for Jacksonville is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 8-1-1 on the highway, 10-2-1 on grass and 16-5-2 against the AFC. For Denver, the over is on runs of 21-6-1 overall, 13-3-1 at home and 17-5 versus AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 6-2 in the last eight clashes and is on a 5-0 spree in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (2-3, 3-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-3 SU and ATS)
The struggling Eagles make the long cross-country trek to Monster Park for a meeting with the 49ers.
Philadelphia lost to Washington 23-17 as a 6½-point home chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Donovan McNabb was 17 of 29 for 196 yards, but the Eagles were outgained 388-254 in a turnover-free contest. Philly also had a time of possession of more than nine minutes.
San Francisco fell to New England 30-21 as a three-point home underdog, losing and failing to cash for the second straight week, and the SU winner has now covered in the Niners’ last 16 games. QB J.T. O’Sullivan was a sub-par 14 of 29 for just 130 yards, with three TDs offset by three INTs, and the 49ers were outgained 377-199 and held the ball for just over 20 minutes.
Philadelphia won and covered the last two meetings in this series, most recently taking a 38-24 road win laying six points in 2006. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Eagles are on a 7-1 ATS tear on the road and are on further positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 in non-division roadies, 6-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU loss. The 49ers are in ATS declines of 5-11 overall, 3-8 after a SU loss, 4-10 against the NFC and 4-9 at home.
The over is 4-0 in the last four matchups between these two and 6-1 in Philly’s last seven road games. But the under is 8-3 in San Francisco’s last 11 at Monster Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Dallas (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at Arizona (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, who have been less than impressive the past two weeks, look to right the ship when they travel to the desert for a clash with the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Dallas, coming off a home loss to Washington two weeks ago, let lowly Cincinnati make a second-half run before the Cowboys regained control late in a 31-22 home victory as an overwhelming 16-point favorite. Dallas is now 1-3 ATS in its last four starts. Against Cincy, QB Tony Romo (14 of 23, 176 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) did just enough, aided greatly by a Bengals fumble that he converted into a 57-yard TD strike to Terrell Owens in the fourth quarter.
Arizona bounced Buffalo 41-17 as a one-point home favorite, snapping a two-game SU and ATS hiccup, and the SU winner has now cashed in six straight games and 13 of the last 14 for Arizona. QB Kurt Warner, who had six turnovers two weeks ago against the Jets, was error-free in going 33 of 42 for 250 yards and two TDs, and the Cards won the turnover battle 4-0 and the time of possession battle by nearly 13 minutes.
Dallas is on a 3-1 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry, last earning a 27-10 road victory giving 6½ points in 2006. The favorite is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the home team has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
The Cowboys are in a 2-8 ATS slump and are on additional pointspread slides of 1-7 against NFC foes and 1-5 after a non-cover, but they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a non-division road chalk. The Cardinals are in ATS ruts of 2-5 against the NFC and 3-6 as a non-division home pup, but they have cashed in four of their last five home contests and are 7-3 ATS at home under second-year coach Ken Whisenhunt (2-0 ATS as a home pup).
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall and 4-1 at Arizona, and the total has gone low in Dallas’ last four road games. But the over for Arizona is on streaks of 20-7 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-2 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Green Bay (2-3 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-3 SU and ATS)
Two teams struggling to regain their playoff form of last season square off when the Packers travel west to meet the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Green Bay lost to Atlanta 27-24 giving 3½ points at home for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, and the SU winner has now grabbed the cash in the Pack’s last 17 games. QB Aaron Rodgers (25 of 37, 313 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid outing, leading two fourth-quarter TD drives, but Green Bay never led, gave up 121 rushing yards to Michael Turner and was hit with 97 yards in penalties, to just 15 yards for Atlanta.
Seattle got pounded 44-6 by the New York Giants getting seven points on the road, losing SU and ATS for the third time in their four games this year, and the SU winner is now on an eye-popping 19-0 ATS run for Seattle. QB Matt Hasselbeck went a paltry 11 of 21 for 105 yards and no TDs, with one INT, and he has just two TD passes against four INTs so far this season. The Seahawks finished with just 187 total yards, while giving up a whopping 523.
Green Bay blasted Seattle 42-20 in the divisional playoffs last year as a nine-point home favorite, and the Pack is 2-1-2 ATS in five clashes with the Seahawks since 2003.
The Packers carry positive ATS streaks of 16-7-1 overall, 7-2-2 after a non-cover and 10-3-1 on the highway. The Seahawks are in a 1-4 ATS slump and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against NFC opponents, but they are on pointspread runs 7-1 at Qwest, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 after an ATS defeat.
The over for Green Bay is 21-8 in its last 29 games (4-1 this year) and is on further tears of 15-3 against the NFC and 37-18-1 on the road. For Seattle, the total has gone high in its first four games this year and is on streaks of 7-0 overall, 6-0 in conference play and 5-1 at home. The total has also gone high in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at San Diego (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Chargers, off to a surprisingly rough start this season, aim to get back on track at Qualcomm Stadium against the Patriots in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game.
San Diego stumbled at Miami in a 17-10 loss as a 6½-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers (13 of 28, 159 yards, 1 TD) had an uninspired outing as the Bolts totaled just 202 yards, while giving up 390 to Miami and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than 13 minutes. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson had just 35 yards on 12 carries, and San Diego lost despite shutting out Miami in the second half.
New England rebounded from a shocking home loss to Miami by beating San Francisco 30-21 as a three-point road chalk. QB Matt Cassel (22 of 32, 259 yards) was a bit up-and-down, with one TD against two INTs, but he hit Randy Moss with a 66-yard TD pass, and the Pats nearly doubled the 49ers in time of possession (39:52-20:08). New England also gave up just 199 total yards.
Last January, New England beat San Diego 21-12 as a heavy 14-point home chalk to advance to the Super Bowl. The Pats also thumped San Diego in the regular season last year 38-14 as a 3½-points home chalk. The underdog is on a 5-1 ATS tear in this rivalry.
The Chargers are on a lengthy ATS run of 46-22-3 in their last 71 games, and they sport additional positive ATS streaks of 4-0-1 against winning teams, 8-1 at Qualcomm and 35-16-3 against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 on the highway, but they are on ATS downticks of 2-8 overall, 1-7 after a SU win and 1-6 against the AFC.
The over for San Diego is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-1 after a SU loss and 10-2 after an ATS setback. For New England, the over is on stretches of 4-1 on the road and 14-4 after an ATS win, but the under is 7-3-1 in its last 11 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
NLCS
Philadelphia (5-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-2)
With their backs pressed firmly against the wall after two tough losses in Philadelphia, the Dodgers turn to rookie Hiroki Kuroda (10-10, 3.61 ERA) in a must-win Game 3 as this best-of-7 National League Championship Series shifts to the West Coast. The Phillies will hand the ball to grizzled veteran Jamie Moyer (16-8, 3.73).
After rallying for a 3-2 victory in Game 1, Philadelphia pounded out 11 hits en route to Friday’s 8-5 victory to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. The Phillies had a pair of four-run innings in the second and third to defeat Los Angeles for the sixth straight time. In fact, the home team is 10-0 in this rivalry this season.
Philadelphia comes to L.A. armed with a bunch of positive streaks, including 21-7 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 16-5 after an off day, 7-0 versus the N.L. West, 23-8 against right-handed starters and 56-27 on Sundays. Also, with Moyer on the mound, the Phillies are on runs of 7-1 overall and 6-1 on the road, though the one defeat came in Game 3 of the NLDS in Milwaukee – the team’s only postseason defeat this year.
The Dodgers, who swept a four-game home series from the Phillies back in August, are still on runs of 22-10 overall, 25-9 at Dodger Stadium, 5-1 following a day off, 8-3 against lefty starters and 8-2 after a defeat. However, Joe Torre’s troops have dropped nine straight games to N.L. East foes, including the six losses in Philadelphia.
Moyer suffered his first loss since Aug. 5 – a span of 11 starts – eight days ago in Milwaukee, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks in four innings, with the Phillies falling 4-1. The 45-year-old southpaw has still held seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or fewer, and Philadelphia is 8-2 during this stretch.
Even with the loss to the Brewers, Moyer is still 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 18 road starts in 2008 and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in five career playoff starts. Also, in 10 lifetime starts against the Dodgers, he’s 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA, but the last time he faced them was last July in L.A., and he got pummeled for 10 runs (all earned) in 5 1/3 innings, losing 10-3.
Kuroda was on the mound for the Dodgers’ 3-1 divisional series-clinching win over the Cubs last Saturday. He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings, scattering six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in his first career postseason outing. The right-hander enters this contest with an 11 1/3 scoreless-inning streak, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 12 trips to the mound dating to the beginning of August. L.A. is 5-1 in his last six outings.
Kuroda is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 home starts this year, 10 of which the Dodgers have won. Also, in two starts against Philly this year, he went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA, including a dominating 3-1 home victory on Aug. 14 when he gave up a run on two hits and no walks in seven innings.
The under is 4-1 in Kuroda’s last five Sunday starts and 4-1 in his last five against N.L. East foes. Meanwhile, Moyer is on under runs of 16-6 overall, 17-5 on the road and 5-0 when pitching on Sunday.
The under is 5-2 in the last six clashes between these teams, but the over is 8-1-2 in the last 11 battles at Dodger Stadium (2-1-1 this year). Additionally, for Los Angeles, the over is on runs of 7-3-2 at home, 5-2-2 against southpaw pitchers and 10-2-1 after a defeat. But the Phillies are on under streaks of 4-0 on the road, 6-1 in the playoffs, 7-1 against winning teams, 8-3 on Sundays, 5-2-1 after an off day and 7-2 versus right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Oakland (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at New Orleans (2-3, 3-2 ATS
The Raiders, fresh off a bye week and the firing of coach Lane Kiffin, head to the Big Easy for a non-conference matchup against the Saints at the Superdome.
Oakland built a 15-0 halftime lead against San Diego two weeks ago, then scored just three second-half points in a 28-18 home loss as a nine-point underdog. Kiffin was fired two days later and replaced by offensive line coach Tom Cable for the rest of the season. Against San Diego, QB JaMarcus Russell (22 of 37, 277 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble) actually had one of his better outings, but he led just one TD drive and accounted for both Raiders turnovers.
New Orleans suffered a 30-27 setback against Minnesota as a three-point home chalk Monday night, losing on a Ryan Longwell field goal in the waning seconds. The Saints were dominant throughout the game, finishing with a 375-270 yardage edge behind QB Drew Brees’ 330-yard passing effort, and Reggie Bush had two punt-return TDs. But they lost the turnover battle 4-0 – with Brees tossing two INTs and losing one of his three fumbles – had a blocked field goal returned for a TD and had 11 penalties for 102 yards.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when New Orleans prevailed 31-26 as a three-point road pup.
The Raiders are on an 8-17 ATS freefall overall and carry additional negative pointspread trends of 7-16 in October, 16-36-1 after a non-cover and 19-42-1 after a SU loss. They’ve also lost six straight games (0-6 ATS) to NFC opponents. The Saints haven’t been much better, burdened by ATS skids of 0-4 against losing teams, 4-10 at the dome, 2-6 against the AFC and 5-12 as a home favorite, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.
The over for Oakland is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-1 on the highway, and the “over” streaks for New Orleans are plentiful, including 13-3-1 overall (3-0-1 this season), 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 against losing teams and 10-1-1 on field turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (2-2, 3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Colts, looking to shake a sluggish start and get back above .500, take on the Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis benefited from a stunning late-fourth-quarter meltdown by Houston last Sunday, scoring three TDs in just over two minutes to turn a 27-10 deficit into a 31-27 victory as a three-point road chalk. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS in the Colts’ last seven games dating to last season. Against Houston, Indy took advantage of three turnovers from Texas QB Sage Rosenfels (2 fumbles, 1 INT) during the fourth-quarter rally, with LB Gary Brackett returning one of the fumbles 68 yards for a TD.
Baltimore lost to Tennessee 13-10 as a one-point home ‘dog, snapping a three-game ATS winning streak. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (18 of 27, 153 yards, 0 TDs) threw two INTs, including one late in the fourth quarter that ended the Ravens’ hopes. Baltimore also got outscored 10-0 in the fourth, overshadowing a defense that allowed just 210 total yards in helping the Ravens to a nine-minute edge in time of possession.
Indianapolis is on a 5-0 SU run in this rivalry, cashing in the last four in a row, including a 44-20 blowout last year as an 8½-point road chalk. The favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run when these teams meet, but the visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Colts have lost their first two games at brand-new Lucas Oil Stadium and they’re on an 0-4 ATS slide at home dating to last season. They’re on further pointspread downfalls of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 as a home favorite and 3-7 against the AFC. The Ravens have cashed in four of their last five starts, but they are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine roadies and are in additional ATS ruts of 4-11 after a pointspread setback and 3-11 after a SU loss.
The under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two. However, the over is on streaks of 8-3 overall for Baltimore, 8-2 for the Ravens against the AFC, 4-1 for Baltimore on the road and 4-1 for Indy against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
Cincinnati (0-5, 2-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Jets hope Brett Favre can pick up where he left off two weeks ago when they face the winless Bengals in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York, which took last week off, got six TD passes from Favre in a 56-35 whipping of Arizona as a one-point home chalk, making the SU winner 4-0 ATS this season in Jets games. Favre (24 of 34, 289 yards, 1 INT) staked New York to a 34-0 halftime lead, and he was greatly aided by seven Cardinals turnovers. The Jets still gave up 472 passing yards to Arizona QB Kurt Warner.
Cincinnati gave Dallas a stern second-half challenge before fading late in a 31-22 loss as a 16-point road pup last week. QB Carson Palmer (23 of 39, 217 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped the Bengals rally from a 17-6 halftime deficit to pull within 24-22 midway through the fourth quarter, but Cincy ultimately didn’t have enough offense, getting outgained 373-269.
The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 last year, barely cashing as a six-point home chalk.
The Jets are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a SU win, but they are on positive spread runs of 6-0 after a bye and 8-4 as a non-division home chalk. The Bengals, meanwhile, are mired in ATS funks of 1-7 after a spread-cover and 2-8-1 in October, but they have covered in their last two road contests.
The under for New York is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 8-1 after a bye, 6-1 against the AFC and 4-1 at home. The total has also gone low in eight of Cincinnati’s last 11 contests overall, and the under is 7-1 in the Bengals’ last eight against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
Carolina (4-1, 3-1-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (3-2, 4-1 ATS)
The Panthers look to maintain their spot atop the NFC South and win their sixth straight game on Tampa Bay’s home field when they battle the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
The Panthers pounded Kansas City 34-0 laying 9½ points to win and cash for the second straight week. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was efficient, bolstered by RB DeAngelo Williams’ 123 rushing yards and two TDs. Carolina’s defense suffocated the Chiefs, allowing just 127 total yards, while the Panthers rolled up 441 yards and nearly doubled K.C. in time of possession.
The Buccaneers lost to Denver 16-13 last week but covered as a 3½-point road ‘dog, getting the cash for the fourth straight week. QBs Brian Griese (13 of 19, 88 yards) and Jeff Garcia (13 of 17, 93 yards) had similar stats, with Garcia offsetting one TD pass with one INT after relieving Griese (elbow injury) in the second half. Tampa coach Jon Gruden has said Garcia will start at QB this week.
Carolina is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 31-23 road victory last December as a three-point favorite. The Panthers have won five straight at Tampa Bay (4-1 ATS), and they’re 10-4 ATS in the last 14 clashes. Finally, the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
The Panthers are on a 6-1-1 ATS run overall and carry further positive pointspread streaks of 6-0-1 as a division road pup, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 against the NFC and 7-3 inside the division. Along with their current 4-0 spread-covering run, the Bucs are also on ATS tears of 6-2 in division play, 8-3 at home, 7-3 after a SU loss and 11-5 against the NFC.
The under for Carolina is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in divisional play and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Tampa is on runs of 8-3 overall, 5-1 inside the division and 7-2 against NFC foes. Finally, the over has cashed in four straight series meetings at Raymond James.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-4 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Vikings, coming off a wild Monday night victory, look to even their record in an NFC Central contest against the hapless Lions at the Metrodome.
Minnesota edged New Orleans 30-27 in prime time, scoring the last 10 points of the game, including Ryan Longwell’s 30-yard field goal in the final seconds to win and cash as a three-point pup. QB Gus Frerotte (19 of 32, 222 yards, 1 TD) was mediocre and the Vikes finished with just 270 yards, while the Saints had 375. But Minnesota won the turnover battle 4-0 and returned a blocked field goal for a TD, helping make up for two Reggie Bush TDs on punt returns.
Detroit came off its bye last week and got drilled 34-7 by Chicago catching 3½ points at home, dropping to 1-11 SU and ATS dating to the middle of last season. The Lions were down 31-0 before they finally scored in the third quarter, and they mustered a paltry 185 total yards while giving up 425.
Minnesota is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in this division rivalry (5-1 SU), most recently rolling to a 42-10 victory at home last December laying 5½ points. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Vikings are in a 2-6 ATS dive, but they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home division games. The Lions, meanwhile, are on a plethora of negative ATS runs, including 0-6 in roadies, 5-13-1 in division play (0-5 in their last five), 3-9 against losing teams and 7-19-1 against the NFC.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven Lions-Vikings clashes overall and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in the Metrodome. Also, for Detroit, the over is on tears of 8-2 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in division play,
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
Chicago (3-2, 3-1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Falcons go for their third home victory of the season as they host the Bears in a battle of squads looking to move to 4.2.
Atlanta dropped Green Bay 27-24 last week as a 3½-point road pup, making the SU winner 13-1 ATS in the Falcons’ last 14 games, including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. RB Michael Turner (26 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD) had another strong day, and rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 26, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough in a game that was nearly even except in one category: Atlanta had just two penalties for 15 yards, while the Pack were flagged nine times for 97 yards.
Chicago blasted Detroit 34-7 as a 3½-point road favorite a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week. QB Kyle Orton (24 of 34, 334 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong game as the Bears rolled up a whopping 425-185 total yardage edge and nearly doubled the hapless Lions in time of possession.
Chicago is 3-0 SU and ATS in three games with Atlanta this decade, but the two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Bears won 16-3 at home as a 3½-point chalk.
The Falcons are on a 5-2 ATS run overall, but they still carry pointspread slides of 1-5 against winning teams and 5-9 as a non-division home ‘dog. The Bears are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1-1 against the NFC.
The over for Atlanta is on runs 10-2 overall, 6-0 at the dome, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-2 against NFC foes. The over is also 24-8-1 in Chicago’s last 33 conference contests, but the Bears have stayed low in their last four roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) at Houston (0-4, 1-3 ATS)
The upstart Dolphins go after their third straight win when they travel to the Lone Star State to take on the winless Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Miami, which flattened New England on the road before taking a bye, returned from its hiatus last week and stunned San Diego 17-10 catching 6½ points at home. The Dolphins have now won and cashed in back-to-back games against last year’s AFC title game participants. Miami’s “Wildcat” offense, featuring RB Ronnie Brown (24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD) at quarterback, continued to succeed, Chad Pennington (22 of 29, 228 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Fish rolled up a stunning 390-202 total yardage edge while holding the ball for nearly 37 minutes.
Houston comes in off a deflating 31-27 loss to Indianapolis as a three-point home ‘dog. The Texans led 27-10 late in the fourth quarter before QB Sage Rosenfels imploded with two lost fumbles – one returned 68 yards for a TD – and an interception, allowing the Colts to reel off 21 points in just over two minutes as an all-but-certain win turned into a stunning loss.
Houston has run off three straight wins in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), though the Dolphins covered as a 4½-point pup last year in a 22-19 loss at Reliant Stadium.
The Dolphins are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight AFC road games, but they remain on ATS slides of 7-20-1 against losing teams, 8-21-1 after a spread-cover and 5-12 in October. The Texans have covered in four of their last five at home, but they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus AFC foes.
The over for Miami is on stretches of 6-3 overall and 6-1 against losing teams, and the over for Houston is on tears of 6-0 overall (all against AFC opponents), 7-0 following a SU loss and 6-0 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (0-4 SU and ATS) at Washington (4-1 SU and ATS)
The streaking Redskins go for their fifth straight victory when they take on the lowly Rams at FedEx Field.
Washington pulled off its second road upset of a divisional foe in as many weeks, toppling Philadelphia 23-17 as a 6½-point pup to win and cash for the fourth straight week. In fact, the SU winner has now covered in 12 straight games for the Redskins dating to last season. Against Philly, QB Jason Campbell (16 of 29, 176 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) didn’t exactly light it up, but he also helped the Redskins post zero turnovers, and RB Clinton Portis (29 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD) had a big day. The Skins defense also allowed just 254 total yards.
St. Louis had a much-needed bye last week following a 31-14 home loss to Buffalo as a 9½-point ‘dog two weeks ago, giving the hapless Rams an 0-7 SU and ATS mark in their last seven games. QB Trent Green (17 of 32, 236 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got the start in coach Scott Linehan’s final game – he was fired following the loss – and interim coach Jim Haslett has already restored Marc Bulger as the starter for the rest of the season.
St. Louis is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in this series, including a 37-31 home win as a one point favorite in 2006.
The Redskins are on pointspread streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 in conference play, 6-1 after a SU win and 6-1 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Rams are on a 5-15 ATS freefall dating to the 2007 season opener and are in additional ATS ruts of 0-5 inside the conference, 4-17 against winning teams, 3-7 on the highway and 5-13-1 as a road ‘dog.
The under for Washington is on a 10-4 streak following an ATS win, and the under is 14-6 in St. Louis’ last 20 road games. However, the over for St. Louis is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 in NFC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Jacksonville (2-3, 1-4 ATS) at Denver (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Jaguars, desperate to get back on track after a slow start, travel to Invesco Field at Mile High to battle the Broncos.
Jacksonville is coming off a 26-21 loss to Pittsburgh as a 3½-point home chalk, failing to cover at home for the second straight week. The Jags got out to a 14-7 first quarter lead, aided by a 72-yard INT return for a TD by Rashean Mathis, then didn’t score again until adding their final TD in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville didn’t turn the ball over, but finished with just 213 total yards, while giving up 415, including 309 passing yards and three TDs from Ben Roethlisberger.
Denver found itself in a rare low-scoring affair, fending off Tampa Bay 16-13 and failing to cash as a 3½-point home favorite. QB Jay Cutler (23 of 34, 227 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a clean day, with no sacks and no fumbles.
This is the second straight year Jacksonville has traveled to Mile High, having notched a 23-14 victory catching 3½ points last year. The underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run in the last four battles.
The Jaguars’ 1-4 ATS mark this season has all come against AFC teams, and they are on an 0-6 ATS slide on grass, but they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 as a road underdog. The Broncos, one of the worst teams to back since 2006, carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 7-21-1 overall, 4-12-1 at Mile High, 3-12 as a home chalk, 1-7-1 against losing teams and 5-16-1 after a SU win.
The over for Jacksonville is on streaks of 20-7-2 overall, 8-1-1 on the highway, 10-2-1 on grass and 16-5-2 against the AFC. For Denver, the over is on runs of 21-6-1 overall, 13-3-1 at home and 17-5 versus AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 6-2 in the last eight clashes and is on a 5-0 spree in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (2-3, 3-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-3 SU and ATS)
The struggling Eagles make the long cross-country trek to Monster Park for a meeting with the 49ers.
Philadelphia lost to Washington 23-17 as a 6½-point home chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Donovan McNabb was 17 of 29 for 196 yards, but the Eagles were outgained 388-254 in a turnover-free contest. Philly also had a time of possession of more than nine minutes.
San Francisco fell to New England 30-21 as a three-point home underdog, losing and failing to cash for the second straight week, and the SU winner has now covered in the Niners’ last 16 games. QB J.T. O’Sullivan was a sub-par 14 of 29 for just 130 yards, with three TDs offset by three INTs, and the 49ers were outgained 377-199 and held the ball for just over 20 minutes.
Philadelphia won and covered the last two meetings in this series, most recently taking a 38-24 road win laying six points in 2006. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Eagles are on a 7-1 ATS tear on the road and are on further positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 in non-division roadies, 6-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU loss. The 49ers are in ATS declines of 5-11 overall, 3-8 after a SU loss, 4-10 against the NFC and 4-9 at home.
The over is 4-0 in the last four matchups between these two and 6-1 in Philly’s last seven road games. But the under is 8-3 in San Francisco’s last 11 at Monster Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Dallas (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at Arizona (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, who have been less than impressive the past two weeks, look to right the ship when they travel to the desert for a clash with the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Dallas, coming off a home loss to Washington two weeks ago, let lowly Cincinnati make a second-half run before the Cowboys regained control late in a 31-22 home victory as an overwhelming 16-point favorite. Dallas is now 1-3 ATS in its last four starts. Against Cincy, QB Tony Romo (14 of 23, 176 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) did just enough, aided greatly by a Bengals fumble that he converted into a 57-yard TD strike to Terrell Owens in the fourth quarter.
Arizona bounced Buffalo 41-17 as a one-point home favorite, snapping a two-game SU and ATS hiccup, and the SU winner has now cashed in six straight games and 13 of the last 14 for Arizona. QB Kurt Warner, who had six turnovers two weeks ago against the Jets, was error-free in going 33 of 42 for 250 yards and two TDs, and the Cards won the turnover battle 4-0 and the time of possession battle by nearly 13 minutes.
Dallas is on a 3-1 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry, last earning a 27-10 road victory giving 6½ points in 2006. The favorite is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the home team has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
The Cowboys are in a 2-8 ATS slump and are on additional pointspread slides of 1-7 against NFC foes and 1-5 after a non-cover, but they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a non-division road chalk. The Cardinals are in ATS ruts of 2-5 against the NFC and 3-6 as a non-division home pup, but they have cashed in four of their last five home contests and are 7-3 ATS at home under second-year coach Ken Whisenhunt (2-0 ATS as a home pup).
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall and 4-1 at Arizona, and the total has gone low in Dallas’ last four road games. But the over for Arizona is on streaks of 20-7 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-2 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Green Bay (2-3 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-3 SU and ATS)
Two teams struggling to regain their playoff form of last season square off when the Packers travel west to meet the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Green Bay lost to Atlanta 27-24 giving 3½ points at home for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, and the SU winner has now grabbed the cash in the Pack’s last 17 games. QB Aaron Rodgers (25 of 37, 313 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid outing, leading two fourth-quarter TD drives, but Green Bay never led, gave up 121 rushing yards to Michael Turner and was hit with 97 yards in penalties, to just 15 yards for Atlanta.
Seattle got pounded 44-6 by the New York Giants getting seven points on the road, losing SU and ATS for the third time in their four games this year, and the SU winner is now on an eye-popping 19-0 ATS run for Seattle. QB Matt Hasselbeck went a paltry 11 of 21 for 105 yards and no TDs, with one INT, and he has just two TD passes against four INTs so far this season. The Seahawks finished with just 187 total yards, while giving up a whopping 523.
Green Bay blasted Seattle 42-20 in the divisional playoffs last year as a nine-point home favorite, and the Pack is 2-1-2 ATS in five clashes with the Seahawks since 2003.
The Packers carry positive ATS streaks of 16-7-1 overall, 7-2-2 after a non-cover and 10-3-1 on the highway. The Seahawks are in a 1-4 ATS slump and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against NFC opponents, but they are on pointspread runs 7-1 at Qwest, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 after an ATS defeat.
The over for Green Bay is 21-8 in its last 29 games (4-1 this year) and is on further tears of 15-3 against the NFC and 37-18-1 on the road. For Seattle, the total has gone high in its first four games this year and is on streaks of 7-0 overall, 6-0 in conference play and 5-1 at home. The total has also gone high in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at San Diego (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Chargers, off to a surprisingly rough start this season, aim to get back on track at Qualcomm Stadium against the Patriots in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game.
San Diego stumbled at Miami in a 17-10 loss as a 6½-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers (13 of 28, 159 yards, 1 TD) had an uninspired outing as the Bolts totaled just 202 yards, while giving up 390 to Miami and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than 13 minutes. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson had just 35 yards on 12 carries, and San Diego lost despite shutting out Miami in the second half.
New England rebounded from a shocking home loss to Miami by beating San Francisco 30-21 as a three-point road chalk. QB Matt Cassel (22 of 32, 259 yards) was a bit up-and-down, with one TD against two INTs, but he hit Randy Moss with a 66-yard TD pass, and the Pats nearly doubled the 49ers in time of possession (39:52-20:08). New England also gave up just 199 total yards.
Last January, New England beat San Diego 21-12 as a heavy 14-point home chalk to advance to the Super Bowl. The Pats also thumped San Diego in the regular season last year 38-14 as a 3½-points home chalk. The underdog is on a 5-1 ATS tear in this rivalry.
The Chargers are on a lengthy ATS run of 46-22-3 in their last 71 games, and they sport additional positive ATS streaks of 4-0-1 against winning teams, 8-1 at Qualcomm and 35-16-3 against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 on the highway, but they are on ATS downticks of 2-8 overall, 1-7 after a SU win and 1-6 against the AFC.
The over for San Diego is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-1 after a SU loss and 10-2 after an ATS setback. For New England, the over is on stretches of 4-1 on the road and 14-4 after an ATS win, but the under is 7-3-1 in its last 11 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
NLCS
Philadelphia (5-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-2)
With their backs pressed firmly against the wall after two tough losses in Philadelphia, the Dodgers turn to rookie Hiroki Kuroda (10-10, 3.61 ERA) in a must-win Game 3 as this best-of-7 National League Championship Series shifts to the West Coast. The Phillies will hand the ball to grizzled veteran Jamie Moyer (16-8, 3.73).
After rallying for a 3-2 victory in Game 1, Philadelphia pounded out 11 hits en route to Friday’s 8-5 victory to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. The Phillies had a pair of four-run innings in the second and third to defeat Los Angeles for the sixth straight time. In fact, the home team is 10-0 in this rivalry this season.
Philadelphia comes to L.A. armed with a bunch of positive streaks, including 21-7 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 16-5 after an off day, 7-0 versus the N.L. West, 23-8 against right-handed starters and 56-27 on Sundays. Also, with Moyer on the mound, the Phillies are on runs of 7-1 overall and 6-1 on the road, though the one defeat came in Game 3 of the NLDS in Milwaukee – the team’s only postseason defeat this year.
The Dodgers, who swept a four-game home series from the Phillies back in August, are still on runs of 22-10 overall, 25-9 at Dodger Stadium, 5-1 following a day off, 8-3 against lefty starters and 8-2 after a defeat. However, Joe Torre’s troops have dropped nine straight games to N.L. East foes, including the six losses in Philadelphia.
Moyer suffered his first loss since Aug. 5 – a span of 11 starts – eight days ago in Milwaukee, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks in four innings, with the Phillies falling 4-1. The 45-year-old southpaw has still held seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or fewer, and Philadelphia is 8-2 during this stretch.
Even with the loss to the Brewers, Moyer is still 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 18 road starts in 2008 and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in five career playoff starts. Also, in 10 lifetime starts against the Dodgers, he’s 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA, but the last time he faced them was last July in L.A., and he got pummeled for 10 runs (all earned) in 5 1/3 innings, losing 10-3.
Kuroda was on the mound for the Dodgers’ 3-1 divisional series-clinching win over the Cubs last Saturday. He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings, scattering six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in his first career postseason outing. The right-hander enters this contest with an 11 1/3 scoreless-inning streak, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 12 trips to the mound dating to the beginning of August. L.A. is 5-1 in his last six outings.
Kuroda is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 home starts this year, 10 of which the Dodgers have won. Also, in two starts against Philly this year, he went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA, including a dominating 3-1 home victory on Aug. 14 when he gave up a run on two hits and no walks in seven innings.
The under is 4-1 in Kuroda’s last five Sunday starts and 4-1 in his last five against N.L. East foes. Meanwhile, Moyer is on under runs of 16-6 overall, 17-5 on the road and 5-0 when pitching on Sunday.
The under is 5-2 in the last six clashes between these teams, but the over is 8-1-2 in the last 11 battles at Dodger Stadium (2-1-1 this year). Additionally, for Los Angeles, the over is on runs of 7-3-2 at home, 5-2-2 against southpaw pitchers and 10-2-1 after a defeat. But the Phillies are on under streaks of 4-0 on the road, 6-1 in the playoffs, 7-1 against winning teams, 8-3 on Sundays, 5-2-1 after an off day and 7-2 versus right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
