Sportswagers
Cincinnati @ INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati +4 -109 over INDIANAPOLIS
1:00 PM EST. Andrew Luck certainly has more appeal than Andrew Dalton and in this league the better QB usually takes the money. The Colts opened as a 3-point choice and that number is now up to -4. We’re more than happy to take back significant weight with the better team. There is a price to pay for playing dregs week in and week out and the Colts are likely going to pay it here. Indy played Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston twice each. They also played Washington once. Combined, the Jags, Titans and ‘Skins went 9-39. When the Colts defeated Cleveland four weeks ago, they did so by a point after Brian Hoyer went 13 for 30 and was subsequently benched. Over the last nine weeks of the season, Indy played three playoff teams. They played the Steelers and lost 51-34. Next up was the Patriots and Indy lost 42-20. Finally, they played Dallas and lost 42-3. Add it up and the Colts were outscored 135-57 over those games and each loss was worse than the last. The Colts also lost their first two games of the year to Denver and Philly. The media once again is going to drill into your heads that Indy defeated Cinci earlier in the year, 27-0 and Andy Dalton’s inability to answer the bell in the playoffs. We put that to rest on a Monday Night against Denver when Dalton’s 2-9 prime time record was going up against the Broncos. The Bengals soundly won that night (37-28) and Dalton’s feeble prime time record was never mentioned again. The Colts defense is pure garbage and a well-prepped offensive coordinator that is working with an efficient offense should absolutely torch them again. Incidentally, Luck has thrown 8 picks over his last three games.
Baltimore played a way tougher schedule than the Colts and played in a division that produced three playoff teams. When Cinci lost to Indy 27-0 way back in Week 7, it was just one of those games where they didn’t show up, much like their Thursday nighter against Cleveland when they lost 24-3. Five weeks later, they buried the Browns 30-0. The Bengals also are the more balanced team and we saw the more balanced team win two games yesterday. When you can’t run the football in the playoffs, your chances of losing increases and it’s been that way forever. That’s a problem for Indy, as they no longer have a running game. The little running game they had vanished when Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season with a fractured fibula in November. The Colts hit rock bottom in the run game when they rushed for 1 yard (you read that correctly) on 10 attempts against Dallas in Week 16. It’s gotten so bad that they basically had an audition at running back with Trent Richardson, Daniel "Boom" Herron and Zurlon Tipton in the season finale against the Tennessee Titans last weekend. The Bengals average 134 yards on the ground and that ranks 6th in the league. Don't get carried away by the loss of A.J. Green either. Any edge against the number must be rooted in factors not already accurately reflected in the price. Let us point out that while the offense may not have looked all that good without Green in the game against the Colts, it was impressive against the Falcons, Panthers and Ravens. The Bengals scored an average 29.3 points without the Pro Bowl wideout in those games so they clearly made adjustments. Frankly, we have no idea what the appeal is with the Colts laying points other than they are at home and they have Andrew Luck, who we’re not crazy about anyway. In the end, we get the better team that has defeated quality opposition several times. We get the better defense, the better running game and the better coaching staff. The Colts consistent offensive potency has been driven by a weak schedule, not Andrew Luck or the current blue-chippers on hand, and Indy’s defense will be among the league's worst until staff changes are made. Yeah, we’ll take the points.
Our Pick
Cincinnati +4 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
Detroit @ DALLAS
DALLAS -6 -107 over Detroit
The Lions caught a break when Ndamukong Suh won the appeal of his one-game suspension but we couldn’t care less because had Suh’s suspension held up, we’d be spotting 7 points and not 6½. The Lions defense has been the driving force to them making the playoffs but the only two times that they faced a playoff team in a road game they allowed over 30 points in both games and lost them both. The first time was in New England in a 34-9 defeat and the second time it occurred in Green Bay where the Lions lost 30-20. Outside of their Week 3 win over Green Bay, the Lions haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all year. In the final five weeks of the season, Detroit beat Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago twice before losing to the Pack. In back-to-back weeks earlier in the year, Detroit defeated New Orleans and Atlanta by a combined 3 points and needed a last play FG against Atlanta to win after they were trailing 21-0. Against some brutal defenses, Detroit had trouble scoring and many of those games were at home. Do not let the media sell you on Detroit’s defense, as they had success against a lot of bad football teams most of the time. Matthew Stafford has never won a playoff game and Detroit’s passing game has never looked worse than it does right now since Stafford arrived.
Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are all great QB’s and Tony Romo takes a backseat to none of them. Romo lead the NFL in almost every passing and efficiency statistic. Romo’s completion percentage of 69.9% was tops in the league. His QB rating of 113.2 was also tops, as was his 8.52 yards per attempt. If Romo didn’t have the NFL’s best running game, he probably would have led the league in passing yards too. Romo attempted about 160 less passes than guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. We’re quite aware of people’s reluctance to lay points with the Cowboys because they have a horrible history of choking late in the year. However, this isn’t the same team as previous editions. Dallas won all four games in December and all of them were by double digits, which included a 38-27 victory in Philly and a 42-3 win over Indy. Dallas is the real deal this year. They constantly answered the bell all season long. The Seahawks were able to reclaim top seed despite losing to Dallas at home because their victories over 4-12 Washington and the 6-10 New York Giants counted for more in the tiebreaker than Dallas’s wins over 11-5 Indianapolis and 9-7 Houston and the head-to-head victory by Dallas counted not at all. We have no idea who dreams these things up but in our minds, the ‘Boys have been better than Seattle all year and they’re about to prove it once again. Detroit is garbage and the Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders. End of story.
Our Pick
DALLAS -6 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)