GMC-NFL Selection
101 Detroit +7
CBB
863 Iona -5
101 Detroit +7
CBB
863 Iona -5
Joe Gavazzi
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3) 1:00 ET CBS
Forecast for this contest is for freezing temperatures with light precipitation and 16 mph winds. Nonetheless, we must favor an Indianapolis team on their home field, who earlier this season defeated the Bengals by a 27-0 count on October 19th, outgaining Cinci 506-135. In fact, 6/8 Indianapolis home wins have been by 7 or more points, characterizing a 6-2 SU ATS home log. Conversely, the Bengals are 1-3 SU ATS away vs. winning teams with losses of 26 at New England, 10 at Pittsburgh (last week) and that 27 point defeat on this field.
The availability of WR Green is a major factor in this contest. Without his services last week, the Bengals faded down the stretch at Pittsburgh, losing 27-17, despite outrushing the Steelers 116-29. The Bengals have ascended to the playoffs for the 4th consecutive year. Yet, they have failed to emerge from the Wild Card round with victory, going 0-3 ATS with losses of 17, 6, and 21 points in which they have averaged just 11 PPG. This franchise does not have a playoff victory in over 20 years. A win on this field is a lot to ask from a team who was outgained for the season 359-348.
Far prefer the Colts, who have ascended each year under QB Luck. After losing in their 1st playoff game in 2012, the Colts ascended 1 game further in last year’s playoffs, before losing to New England. It seems clear they are ready to continue their ascent. Two weeks ago, after clinching the division title, Indy was flat in a 42-7 loss at Dallas. Yet, they regained their momentum as our Top Late Phone Service Play of the Week with a 27-10 victory at Tennessee, in which they outgained the Titans 378-192. Led by QB Luck, the Colts have the best offense of any of this week’s playoff teams, averaging 29 PPG and 406 YPG. Combined with their home field advantage, it results in a double digit victory against the Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3) 1:00 ET CBS
Forecast for this contest is for freezing temperatures with light precipitation and 16 mph winds. Nonetheless, we must favor an Indianapolis team on their home field, who earlier this season defeated the Bengals by a 27-0 count on October 19th, outgaining Cinci 506-135. In fact, 6/8 Indianapolis home wins have been by 7 or more points, characterizing a 6-2 SU ATS home log. Conversely, the Bengals are 1-3 SU ATS away vs. winning teams with losses of 26 at New England, 10 at Pittsburgh (last week) and that 27 point defeat on this field.
The availability of WR Green is a major factor in this contest. Without his services last week, the Bengals faded down the stretch at Pittsburgh, losing 27-17, despite outrushing the Steelers 116-29. The Bengals have ascended to the playoffs for the 4th consecutive year. Yet, they have failed to emerge from the Wild Card round with victory, going 0-3 ATS with losses of 17, 6, and 21 points in which they have averaged just 11 PPG. This franchise does not have a playoff victory in over 20 years. A win on this field is a lot to ask from a team who was outgained for the season 359-348.
Far prefer the Colts, who have ascended each year under QB Luck. After losing in their 1st playoff game in 2012, the Colts ascended 1 game further in last year’s playoffs, before losing to New England. It seems clear they are ready to continue their ascent. Two weeks ago, after clinching the division title, Indy was flat in a 42-7 loss at Dallas. Yet, they regained their momentum as our Top Late Phone Service Play of the Week with a 27-10 victory at Tennessee, in which they outgained the Titans 378-192. Led by QB Luck, the Colts have the best offense of any of this week’s playoff teams, averaging 29 PPG and 406 YPG. Combined with their home field advantage, it results in a double digit victory against the Bengals.
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | MILWAUKEE at NEW YORK
Play Against - Underdogs (NEW YORK) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss against a division rival
70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at DETROIT
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
70-19 since 1997. ( 78.7% | 37.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NBA | BROOKLYN at MIAMI
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
NBA | MILWAUKEE at NEW YORK
Play Against - Underdogs (NEW YORK) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss against a division rival
70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at DETROIT
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
70-19 since 1997. ( 78.7% | 37.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NBA | BROOKLYN at MIAMI
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | S DAKOTA at DENVER
Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (DENVER) excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against a good free throw shooting team (69-73%), after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
CBB | WI-MILWAUKEE at DETROIT
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (WI-MILWAUKEE) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games
112-135 since 1997. ( 45.3% | 20.6 units )
CBB | WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NORTHWESTERN) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record
84-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% | 37.8 units )
CBB | S DAKOTA at DENVER
Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (DENVER) excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against a good free throw shooting team (69-73%), after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
CBB | WI-MILWAUKEE at DETROIT
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (WI-MILWAUKEE) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games
112-135 since 1997. ( 45.3% | 20.6 units )
CBB | WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NORTHWESTERN) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record
84-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% | 37.8 units )
StatFox Super Situations
NFL | CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game
43-13 over the last 10 seasons. ( 76.8% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )
NFL | DETROIT at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game
43-13 over the last 10 seasons. ( 76.8% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )
NFL | DETROIT at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
Hondo
Hondo eyes playoff payoff
Hondo wrapped up the regular season with a disastrous 5-10-1 performance that caused him to finish below the .500 mark. For that he can point a finger directly at Cincinnati, which, with a cover in hand in Pittsburgh Sunday night, fumbled it away in true Bengwad style.
But that’s enough about 2014. Now that the ball has dropped and everyone has dropped the ball on his or her resolutions, it’s time to shift focus from hangovers to turnovers and make some wise investments in playoff pigskin futures.
Cardinals-Panthers: The knee-jerk play is the Panthers, who have won their last four, while the Cardinals have lost four of their last six. And granted, quarterback Ryan Lindley, a journeyman, ultimately will be responsible for Arizona having a rough journey, man. Nevertheless, the Cardinals play a manly enough defense to keep it within the hefty number against the Panthers’ plodding offense. Expect the Cats to nip ’em, 17-16.
Ravens-Steelers: In their last three games, the Ravens had to rally in the second half to beat the Jaguars, were beaten by the immortal Case Keenum and the Texans and needed a fourth-quarter comeback against the immortal Connor Shaw and the Browns to pull a wild card out of the deck. The Steelers, meanwhile, roll into the playoffs with four straight wins. Le’Veon Bell’s possible absence won’t keep the Ben Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown connection from getting the Steelers off to a fast start, which will make it an easy ride. After all, as everyone knows, it’s tough to play catchup at Heinz. Steelers, 23-19.
Bengals-Colts: They don’t call him “One-And-Done” Dalton for nothing. A fourth straight quick exit awaits in Indianapolis, where the Bengwads, who had the league’s least number of sacks appeal, will provide Andrew Luck plenty of time to scan and deliver to T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener. The Colts’ underrated defense may not blank the ’Wads as it did Oct. 19, but with A.J. Green still woozy, a 24th straight year of playoff futility awaits Cincinnati. Can’t argue with history; if you put your postseason cash on Dalton, you will be in the red. Colts, 31-23.
Lions-Cowboys: It’s a numbers game — the Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1991, while Matt Stafford, for his career, is 0-for-17 on the road against teams that finished with a winning record. And it looks like their number is up again, unless Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola can turn Jerry’s Place into Stomper Room early on and get rid of some key Cowboys. Barring that, the Cowboys will roll as the playoff wheels come off Detroit again. Dallas 38-13.
BTW: Now that Suh has gotten over on the NFL by claiming his feet were numb and he didn’t realize he twice stepped on Aaron Rodgers’ ankle, he wants to appeal his $30,000 fine for kicking Matt Schaub on Thanksgiving in 2012. Suh now contends his foot was numb that day, too, and he merely was trying to warm it up in Schaub’s crotch.
Hondo eyes playoff payoff
Hondo wrapped up the regular season with a disastrous 5-10-1 performance that caused him to finish below the .500 mark. For that he can point a finger directly at Cincinnati, which, with a cover in hand in Pittsburgh Sunday night, fumbled it away in true Bengwad style.
But that’s enough about 2014. Now that the ball has dropped and everyone has dropped the ball on his or her resolutions, it’s time to shift focus from hangovers to turnovers and make some wise investments in playoff pigskin futures.
Cardinals-Panthers: The knee-jerk play is the Panthers, who have won their last four, while the Cardinals have lost four of their last six. And granted, quarterback Ryan Lindley, a journeyman, ultimately will be responsible for Arizona having a rough journey, man. Nevertheless, the Cardinals play a manly enough defense to keep it within the hefty number against the Panthers’ plodding offense. Expect the Cats to nip ’em, 17-16.
Ravens-Steelers: In their last three games, the Ravens had to rally in the second half to beat the Jaguars, were beaten by the immortal Case Keenum and the Texans and needed a fourth-quarter comeback against the immortal Connor Shaw and the Browns to pull a wild card out of the deck. The Steelers, meanwhile, roll into the playoffs with four straight wins. Le’Veon Bell’s possible absence won’t keep the Ben Roethlisberger-to-Antonio Brown connection from getting the Steelers off to a fast start, which will make it an easy ride. After all, as everyone knows, it’s tough to play catchup at Heinz. Steelers, 23-19.
Bengals-Colts: They don’t call him “One-And-Done” Dalton for nothing. A fourth straight quick exit awaits in Indianapolis, where the Bengwads, who had the league’s least number of sacks appeal, will provide Andrew Luck plenty of time to scan and deliver to T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener. The Colts’ underrated defense may not blank the ’Wads as it did Oct. 19, but with A.J. Green still woozy, a 24th straight year of playoff futility awaits Cincinnati. Can’t argue with history; if you put your postseason cash on Dalton, you will be in the red. Colts, 31-23.
Lions-Cowboys: It’s a numbers game — the Lions haven’t won a playoff game since 1991, while Matt Stafford, for his career, is 0-for-17 on the road against teams that finished with a winning record. And it looks like their number is up again, unless Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola can turn Jerry’s Place into Stomper Room early on and get rid of some key Cowboys. Barring that, the Cowboys will roll as the playoff wheels come off Detroit again. Dallas 38-13.
BTW: Now that Suh has gotten over on the NFL by claiming his feet were numb and he didn’t realize he twice stepped on Aaron Rodgers’ ankle, he wants to appeal his $30,000 fine for kicking Matt Schaub on Thanksgiving in 2012. Suh now contends his foot was numb that day, too, and he merely was trying to warm it up in Schaub’s crotch.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Sunday
Only playing the NFL again today. Two plays on my card for Sunday. Best
of luck!
-EZ
3* (107) Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Indianapolis is one of the worst teams in this year's playoffs in my opinion. If they were not in the AFC South that had two of the worst teams in the league and a third that didn't have a quarterback they might not be in the post season. The offense relies way too much on quarterback Andrew Luck and the passing game. The Colts simply can't run the ball. Running back Trent Richardson is a total bust in this league and that inability to run the ball will be their undoing. Luck has put up big passing numbers this season, but he also has turned the ball over at an alarming rate. The Bengals have the defense that can force Luck into more of those turnovers. On the defensive side of the ball Indianapolis has been gashed by the teams that have the ability to run the ball and it should be no different here for the Bengals and rookie running back Jeremy Hill. The lack of a pass rush by the Colts will also make Andy Dalton look like a quarterback that can lead a team deep in the playoffs (at least for one game). Take the points.
3* (101) Detroit Lions +7
I really like what the Cowboy's have done this season, but asking them to win a playoff game by this large of a margin seems like a bit too much for my liking. The Cowboys have controlled time of possession against their opponents this season by their ability to run the football. DeMarco Murray had a huge year for Dallas, but this is going to be a very tough matchup for Dallas to continue that ground dominance against one of the best run defense's in the NFL. If Detroit can contain the run like I believe they can, this is going to put more pressure on a below average Dallas defense that has performed well because of their dominate offense. Asking the Cowboys to contain Calvin Johnson and all of the weapons that Detroit has on the offensive side will be a very tough task. Dallas was a great road team this season where they were undefeated, but they have underperformed at times at home. Also, the Cowboys have all of the pressure on them to win this game or else this season will be considered a bust. Take the points.
