Cajun Sports
6* STAR SELECTION
MINNESOTA +3 over Philadelphia
The home-standing Vikings will entertain the Eagles in an NFC Wild Card clash on Sunday.
Both teams were on shaky ground in regards to making the postseason before making a late-season run. Minnesota won five of its last six games to capture its first NFC North title since 2000 and end a four-year playoff drought, while Philadelphia was able to nudge its way into the NFC’s final Wild Card spot by going 4-1 down the stretch.
The Eagles capped the strong run with a 44-6 pasting of the rival Dallas Cowboys last Sunday and got some much needed help along the way, as Tampa Bay and Chicago both lost their finales. A win by either team would have left the Eagles at home for the Playoffs.
The Bears' 31-24 setback at Houston in also secured the #3 playoff seed for Minnesota, although the Vikings took matters into their own hands by edging the NFC East champion Giants. Minnesota rallied from a nine-point deficit with under 10 minutes to play and came through with a 20-19 decision on kicker Ryan Longwell's 50-yard field goal as time expired.
Vikings head coach Brad Childress served as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for seven seasons under Eagles head coach Andy Reid before being named the Minnesota head man in 2006. This should benefit the home underdogs, having a good idea of what to expect from his former team.
Donovan McNabb has endured an up-and-down season that included a benching by Reid for the second half of a blowout loss at Baltimore in late November. The 5-time Pro Bowl participant still managed to set a career best for passing yards and was nearly flawless during the Eagles' playoff push. He's also had to deal with inconsistency at the wide receiver position, where 2007 starters Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown have failed to match their previous year's production in injury-plagued campaigns. Philadelphia's sixth-rated passing offense could be without tight end L.J. Smith for Sunday's test, as he is dealing with a shoulder problem that forced him out of the Dallas game.
RB Brian Westbrook is a valuable offensive catalyst for Philly and has had to fight through an assortment of nagging injuries that held him to a career-low 4.0 yards per carry average and lowest receiving yardage total since 2003.
The Eagles don't usually run the ball a whole lot, and expect that trend to continue against a Minnesota defense that is yielding a league-low 76.9 rushing yards per game and a meager 3.3 yards per attempt. Minnesota's run-stopping prowess is complemented by a fearsome pass rush that netted 45 sacks during the regular season, the fourth-most in the league.
Minnesota's offense is built around the immense talents of 2007 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson, who topped the league in rushing yards and eclipsed the century mark in four of the club's final five games. The sophomore running back's rare blend of power and speed was emphasized by a dazzling 67-yard touchdown burst in last week's win over the Giants.
Philadelphia will counter with a defense that's given up only 92 rushing yards per game this season and has been a brick wall versus the run in the second half of the season.
If the Eagles are able to hold Peterson in check, expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to dial up a barrage of blitzes with the hopes of forcing QB Tarvaris Jackson into mistakes.
Jackson is still being viewed as a work in progress, but his performance over the past few weeks is evidence that he's making great strides. Since regaining his starting job from Gus Frerotte, TJ has completed 64% of his passes and thrown for 8 TDs with just one INT in a four-game span.
That the Eagles are even in the playoffs is a minor miracle. They went into the last week of the regular-season needing the four-win Oakland Raiders to beat Tampa Bay. They also needed the Houston Texans, with nothing to play for but pride, to beat Chicago, who would have been in the playoffs with a win. As it turned out, the Raiders beat the Bucs and the Texans beat the Bears, and then the Eagles went out and crushed the Cowboys.
"It was an electric day at Lincoln Financial Field," said coach Andy Reid. "I just thought the energy level was up at maybe the second highest volume that I have seen since I've been here. It was an exciting, exciting atmosphere. I thought the fans were awesome. I thought the situation with the other teams having to win or lose, whatever side you were looking at it from, to play out to give us an opportunity to play that game for the playoffs, I just thought that added to the flavor of it all."
Off such an unlikely win, Philadelphia likely spent its best effort last week. They are hardly in position to be a strong 3-point favorite against a team that has won 5 of its last 6 games, especially considering that Philly has scored 13, 7, 20, and 3 points respectively in their last 4 road games.
A look at more numbers tells a similar tale, as the Eagles are:
0-5 SU (-10 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-13.4 ppg) as a road favorite of 2-6 points off a SU win since 2003;
0-10 ATS as a Playoff favorite off a SU win vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 30+ points since at least 1977;
0-3 SU & ATS as a playoff road/neutral site favorite since at least 1977.
In Eagles playoff games away from Philadelphia, the underdog is 4-0 ATS since 2001.
Teams that ended the regular season with a couple of good defensive outings have been over-valued by the wagering public under the parameters outlined by one of our NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play AGAINST a team in its First Playoff Game off allowing less than 21 combined points in its last 2 games vs. an opponent (favored if also in its first playoff game off allowing 21 combined points in its last 2 games) and not off a Wildcard SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 7 points/underdog of 7+ points or Wildcard non-OT SU win scoring 38+ points in its last game.
Since 1991, these supposedly “hot” teams got cooled off, going 0-25-1 ATS!
Meanwhile, teams that ended the regular season with a couple of spread losses have been phenomenal in their first playoff game under the conditions described by another Playoff POWER SYSTEM. The Vikings are active for this one that reads:
Play ON a team in its First Playoff Game off a regular season ATS loss in its last game (not a division SU loss) and an ATS loss before that vs. an opponent not off a regular season non-conference SU win or a WildCard SU & ATS win as a home favorite of 9+ points/road favorite in its last game.
Since 1984, these teams are an amazing 27-0 ATS, blasting the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average!
The MetroDome will be rocking Sunday afternoon, giving Minnesota a big boost here. We look for Childress to throw a few surprises at Philadelphia, such as having QB Jackson come out throwing against an Eagles defense focused on stopping the run. This will allow Jackson to gain some early confidence, as the passing lanes should be open, and get him off to a great start. Along with getting the early momentum on their side, it will also work to loosen things up for Adrian Peterson, as Philly turns their attention to stopping the short passes.
The Eagles have been up-and-down all year, which makes them unreliable. With such teams, a sound handicapping strategy is to play ON them as an underdog and FADE them as a favorite, especially as a Playoff ROAD favorite.
The Vikings are getting very little respect from the public, as nearly 80% of the wagers coming in the sportsbooks we monitor are on the Eagles. We'll gladly fade those numbers, and with the pressure off the home dogs, we'll back them here to “shock the world”.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MINNESOTA 23 PHILADELPHIA 17
1:00 PM EST
2 STAR SELECTION
Baltimore -3 over MIAMI
An unexpected ride will continue for one of these teams when the Ravens play the Dolphins in an AFC WildCard matchup.
Nobody had either Miami or Baltimore in their projected playoff fields prior to the season, yet here they are.
Miami's turnaround this season is perhaps the most impressive in NFL history, as the Dolphins were a pathetic 1-15 a year ago. Ironically, their 1 victory was over the Ravens, which was probably the final nail in former coach Brian Billick’s coffin.
Both teams were overhauled in the off-season. Bill Parcells was hired to be Miami’s Executive Vice-President for Football Operations, who brought in a new brain trust of general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano.
Last week's 24-17 win at the Jets moved Miami to 11-5, giving the team its first division title since 2000 and its first postseason berth since 2001. The Dolphins are 9-1 since starting the year at 2-4, including a 5-0 road record during that span.
The Ravens' 2008 about-face is almost as impressive, although they are two years removed from a 13-3 playoff season, and they retain a sizeable portion of its top personnel from that era.
The Ravens were just 5-11 last year, finishing in last place in the AFC North and going 1-9 in their final 10 contests. Baltimore tabbed Eagles assistant John Harbaugh as his next head man, who then had to scramble for a quarterback. Steve McNair opted to retire, while Kyle Boller and Troy Smith were both sidelined during training camp. The only QB left standing in August was raw rookie third-stringer Joe Flacco, who was roughly eight months after he had been quarterbacking the University of Delaware.
Flacco has shown gradual improvement each week and helped the Ravens navigate a murderous schedule in the process. Baltimore went 9-2 over their final 11 games to secure the AFC's final WildCard entry, with their only losses over that span coming against the NFC’s #1 seed New York Giants and AFC’s #2 seed Pittsburgh Steelers.
Now, Baltimore will be attempting to win its first postseason game since 2001, when it made a previous trip to Miami and easily defeated the Dolphins in a Wild Card matchup. The Dolphins were also a 27-13 home loser when the clubs met back in Week 7 of this year for the most recent regular season meeting.
QB Flacco finished the campaign with solid numbers in both passer rating and completion percentage, a testament to his efficiency and maturity. Rather than hit a “rookie wall” down the stretch like Atlanta’s rookie QB, Matt Ryan did, Flacco continued to get better, including throwing for a career-high 297 yards in last week's win over the Jaguars. Back in the Week 7 meeting with the Dolphins, Flacco was a solid 17-of-23 for 232 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers.
Still, the Ravens' offensive strength lies with a rushing offense that ranks fourth in the NFL and features the three-headed monster of Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain, veteran Willis McGahee, and rookie Ray Rice.
The Dolphins defensive group ranks 10th in NFL rushing defense, eighth in sacks, and has kept the team afloat for much of the season. The work of the pass rush has helped to cover up some of the weaknesses of a secondary that ranks just 25th in the NFL against the pass.
A major component in the Dolphins' turn-around season was the way QB Chad Pennington and the Miami offense protected the football. The Dolphins turned the ball over an NFL-low-tying 13 times during the regular campaign, leading the NFL in turnover margin in the process. Pennington posted an outstanding 97.4 passer rating during the regular season despite a lack of big-name receivers on the club.
Miami also has a three-pronged rushing attack with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs, making the Fins 11th in NFL rushing offense during the regular season.
Pennington and company will have a tall order on Sunday, as they try to gain some traction against a Ravens defense that is #3 against the run and #2 against the pass. Baltimore also leads the NFL in interceptions and takeaways.
Since Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7 the Dolphins have improved, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their usual big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Pennington is going to have a difficult time avoiding miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks. In addition, Pennington won't get quite enough help from the running game against a Ravens front seven that doesn't give up much ground.
On the other side of the ball, Flacco has stood up to nearly every challenge he's faced this year, has been getting better in recent weeks, and has played his best football on the road, so he is not fazed by opposing fans. Unfortunately for Miami, they also have played their best ball on the road.
While Baltimore has many players with playoff and even Super Bowl winning experience, the Dolphins have just 18 players with any playoff experience. We expect that to be the difference early and late in this game, as an early mistake by Miami should help get the Ravens in front, and a late mistake should seal their fate.
We have numerous NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS in agreement:
After covering the spread as a double-digit favorite to end the season as the Ravens did, teams have entered the playoffs in strong fashion, as revealed by a small-sample POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off a regular season non-shutout SU & ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are 7-0 SU (+16.9 ppg) & 6-0-1 ATS (+12.8 ppg).
Meanwhile:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off regular season road SU wins in its last 2 games.
These road-weary teams have gone 0-5 ATS since 1994, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The Dolphins likely left their best effort on the field with their upset win over the Jets at New York last week.
Home teams starting the playoffs against an opponent with the same record in the regular season have had a very hard time, which is the case here. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
Play AGAINST a home team in its First Playoff Game vs. an opponent with the same regular season record.
Since 2002, these teams are 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 8 ppg on average, including the Bengals home underdog SU & ATS loss to Pittsburgh in 2005.
Miami has not enjoyed an easy win the past few weeks, and without a recent double-digit win, teams have struggled in the playoffs. This is confirmed by our database research which resulted in an NFL POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard team (not a division underdog) off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points (road team if rematch of last game) vs. an opponent not off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points AND fewer points scored in its highest scoring contest of the 3 games.
Since 1998, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 9 ppg on average.
Finally, after playing a division foe as a clear underdog, teams have really struggled in the playoff WildCard and Semi-Final rounds. The Dolphins are active for this POWER SYSTEM as well, which states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points (underdog if opponent also off a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points) vs. a non-2-time-defending Super Bowl Champion opponent not played in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are a horrible 0-24 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 ppg on average. This system was 4-0 ATS, and is already 1-0 this season with the Colts SU & ATS loss at San Diego on Saturday.
Under most circumstances, we would fade a rookie QB and rookie head coach on the NFL Playoff road, as we did on Saturday with Atlanta; however, the Ravens rookie is playing as well as Miami’s Pennington right now, and the Dolphins have a new staff themselves. Baltimore still has many veterans from previous playoff runs, especially on a defense that should set the tone early this game. Another big edge enjoyed by the Ravens here is having Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator. He was the Dolphins head coach last season, so he knows their personnel very well, and was certainly a factor in their win at Miami earlier this season. Also as noted, both of these teams played better on the road, which is reflected by our Power Ratings which show a fairly comfortable SU & ATS win for the visitors.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 24 MIAMI 14
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6* STAR SELECTION
MINNESOTA +3 over Philadelphia
The home-standing Vikings will entertain the Eagles in an NFC Wild Card clash on Sunday.
Both teams were on shaky ground in regards to making the postseason before making a late-season run. Minnesota won five of its last six games to capture its first NFC North title since 2000 and end a four-year playoff drought, while Philadelphia was able to nudge its way into the NFC’s final Wild Card spot by going 4-1 down the stretch.
The Eagles capped the strong run with a 44-6 pasting of the rival Dallas Cowboys last Sunday and got some much needed help along the way, as Tampa Bay and Chicago both lost their finales. A win by either team would have left the Eagles at home for the Playoffs.
The Bears' 31-24 setback at Houston in also secured the #3 playoff seed for Minnesota, although the Vikings took matters into their own hands by edging the NFC East champion Giants. Minnesota rallied from a nine-point deficit with under 10 minutes to play and came through with a 20-19 decision on kicker Ryan Longwell's 50-yard field goal as time expired.
Vikings head coach Brad Childress served as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for seven seasons under Eagles head coach Andy Reid before being named the Minnesota head man in 2006. This should benefit the home underdogs, having a good idea of what to expect from his former team.
Donovan McNabb has endured an up-and-down season that included a benching by Reid for the second half of a blowout loss at Baltimore in late November. The 5-time Pro Bowl participant still managed to set a career best for passing yards and was nearly flawless during the Eagles' playoff push. He's also had to deal with inconsistency at the wide receiver position, where 2007 starters Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown have failed to match their previous year's production in injury-plagued campaigns. Philadelphia's sixth-rated passing offense could be without tight end L.J. Smith for Sunday's test, as he is dealing with a shoulder problem that forced him out of the Dallas game.
RB Brian Westbrook is a valuable offensive catalyst for Philly and has had to fight through an assortment of nagging injuries that held him to a career-low 4.0 yards per carry average and lowest receiving yardage total since 2003.
The Eagles don't usually run the ball a whole lot, and expect that trend to continue against a Minnesota defense that is yielding a league-low 76.9 rushing yards per game and a meager 3.3 yards per attempt. Minnesota's run-stopping prowess is complemented by a fearsome pass rush that netted 45 sacks during the regular season, the fourth-most in the league.
Minnesota's offense is built around the immense talents of 2007 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson, who topped the league in rushing yards and eclipsed the century mark in four of the club's final five games. The sophomore running back's rare blend of power and speed was emphasized by a dazzling 67-yard touchdown burst in last week's win over the Giants.
Philadelphia will counter with a defense that's given up only 92 rushing yards per game this season and has been a brick wall versus the run in the second half of the season.
If the Eagles are able to hold Peterson in check, expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to dial up a barrage of blitzes with the hopes of forcing QB Tarvaris Jackson into mistakes.
Jackson is still being viewed as a work in progress, but his performance over the past few weeks is evidence that he's making great strides. Since regaining his starting job from Gus Frerotte, TJ has completed 64% of his passes and thrown for 8 TDs with just one INT in a four-game span.
That the Eagles are even in the playoffs is a minor miracle. They went into the last week of the regular-season needing the four-win Oakland Raiders to beat Tampa Bay. They also needed the Houston Texans, with nothing to play for but pride, to beat Chicago, who would have been in the playoffs with a win. As it turned out, the Raiders beat the Bucs and the Texans beat the Bears, and then the Eagles went out and crushed the Cowboys.
"It was an electric day at Lincoln Financial Field," said coach Andy Reid. "I just thought the energy level was up at maybe the second highest volume that I have seen since I've been here. It was an exciting, exciting atmosphere. I thought the fans were awesome. I thought the situation with the other teams having to win or lose, whatever side you were looking at it from, to play out to give us an opportunity to play that game for the playoffs, I just thought that added to the flavor of it all."
Off such an unlikely win, Philadelphia likely spent its best effort last week. They are hardly in position to be a strong 3-point favorite against a team that has won 5 of its last 6 games, especially considering that Philly has scored 13, 7, 20, and 3 points respectively in their last 4 road games.
A look at more numbers tells a similar tale, as the Eagles are:
0-5 SU (-10 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-13.4 ppg) as a road favorite of 2-6 points off a SU win since 2003;
0-10 ATS as a Playoff favorite off a SU win vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 30+ points since at least 1977;
0-3 SU & ATS as a playoff road/neutral site favorite since at least 1977.
In Eagles playoff games away from Philadelphia, the underdog is 4-0 ATS since 2001.
Teams that ended the regular season with a couple of good defensive outings have been over-valued by the wagering public under the parameters outlined by one of our NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play AGAINST a team in its First Playoff Game off allowing less than 21 combined points in its last 2 games vs. an opponent (favored if also in its first playoff game off allowing 21 combined points in its last 2 games) and not off a Wildcard SU & ATS win as a favorite of more than 7 points/underdog of 7+ points or Wildcard non-OT SU win scoring 38+ points in its last game.
Since 1991, these supposedly “hot” teams got cooled off, going 0-25-1 ATS!
Meanwhile, teams that ended the regular season with a couple of spread losses have been phenomenal in their first playoff game under the conditions described by another Playoff POWER SYSTEM. The Vikings are active for this one that reads:
Play ON a team in its First Playoff Game off a regular season ATS loss in its last game (not a division SU loss) and an ATS loss before that vs. an opponent not off a regular season non-conference SU win or a WildCard SU & ATS win as a home favorite of 9+ points/road favorite in its last game.
Since 1984, these teams are an amazing 27-0 ATS, blasting the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average!
The MetroDome will be rocking Sunday afternoon, giving Minnesota a big boost here. We look for Childress to throw a few surprises at Philadelphia, such as having QB Jackson come out throwing against an Eagles defense focused on stopping the run. This will allow Jackson to gain some early confidence, as the passing lanes should be open, and get him off to a great start. Along with getting the early momentum on their side, it will also work to loosen things up for Adrian Peterson, as Philly turns their attention to stopping the short passes.
The Eagles have been up-and-down all year, which makes them unreliable. With such teams, a sound handicapping strategy is to play ON them as an underdog and FADE them as a favorite, especially as a Playoff ROAD favorite.
The Vikings are getting very little respect from the public, as nearly 80% of the wagers coming in the sportsbooks we monitor are on the Eagles. We'll gladly fade those numbers, and with the pressure off the home dogs, we'll back them here to “shock the world”.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MINNESOTA 23 PHILADELPHIA 17
1:00 PM EST
2 STAR SELECTION
Baltimore -3 over MIAMI
An unexpected ride will continue for one of these teams when the Ravens play the Dolphins in an AFC WildCard matchup.
Nobody had either Miami or Baltimore in their projected playoff fields prior to the season, yet here they are.
Miami's turnaround this season is perhaps the most impressive in NFL history, as the Dolphins were a pathetic 1-15 a year ago. Ironically, their 1 victory was over the Ravens, which was probably the final nail in former coach Brian Billick’s coffin.
Both teams were overhauled in the off-season. Bill Parcells was hired to be Miami’s Executive Vice-President for Football Operations, who brought in a new brain trust of general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano.
Last week's 24-17 win at the Jets moved Miami to 11-5, giving the team its first division title since 2000 and its first postseason berth since 2001. The Dolphins are 9-1 since starting the year at 2-4, including a 5-0 road record during that span.
The Ravens' 2008 about-face is almost as impressive, although they are two years removed from a 13-3 playoff season, and they retain a sizeable portion of its top personnel from that era.
The Ravens were just 5-11 last year, finishing in last place in the AFC North and going 1-9 in their final 10 contests. Baltimore tabbed Eagles assistant John Harbaugh as his next head man, who then had to scramble for a quarterback. Steve McNair opted to retire, while Kyle Boller and Troy Smith were both sidelined during training camp. The only QB left standing in August was raw rookie third-stringer Joe Flacco, who was roughly eight months after he had been quarterbacking the University of Delaware.
Flacco has shown gradual improvement each week and helped the Ravens navigate a murderous schedule in the process. Baltimore went 9-2 over their final 11 games to secure the AFC's final WildCard entry, with their only losses over that span coming against the NFC’s #1 seed New York Giants and AFC’s #2 seed Pittsburgh Steelers.
Now, Baltimore will be attempting to win its first postseason game since 2001, when it made a previous trip to Miami and easily defeated the Dolphins in a Wild Card matchup. The Dolphins were also a 27-13 home loser when the clubs met back in Week 7 of this year for the most recent regular season meeting.
QB Flacco finished the campaign with solid numbers in both passer rating and completion percentage, a testament to his efficiency and maturity. Rather than hit a “rookie wall” down the stretch like Atlanta’s rookie QB, Matt Ryan did, Flacco continued to get better, including throwing for a career-high 297 yards in last week's win over the Jaguars. Back in the Week 7 meeting with the Dolphins, Flacco was a solid 17-of-23 for 232 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers.
Still, the Ravens' offensive strength lies with a rushing offense that ranks fourth in the NFL and features the three-headed monster of Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain, veteran Willis McGahee, and rookie Ray Rice.
The Dolphins defensive group ranks 10th in NFL rushing defense, eighth in sacks, and has kept the team afloat for much of the season. The work of the pass rush has helped to cover up some of the weaknesses of a secondary that ranks just 25th in the NFL against the pass.
A major component in the Dolphins' turn-around season was the way QB Chad Pennington and the Miami offense protected the football. The Dolphins turned the ball over an NFL-low-tying 13 times during the regular campaign, leading the NFL in turnover margin in the process. Pennington posted an outstanding 97.4 passer rating during the regular season despite a lack of big-name receivers on the club.
Miami also has a three-pronged rushing attack with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs, making the Fins 11th in NFL rushing offense during the regular season.
Pennington and company will have a tall order on Sunday, as they try to gain some traction against a Ravens defense that is #3 against the run and #2 against the pass. Baltimore also leads the NFL in interceptions and takeaways.
Since Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7 the Dolphins have improved, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their usual big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Pennington is going to have a difficult time avoiding miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks. In addition, Pennington won't get quite enough help from the running game against a Ravens front seven that doesn't give up much ground.
On the other side of the ball, Flacco has stood up to nearly every challenge he's faced this year, has been getting better in recent weeks, and has played his best football on the road, so he is not fazed by opposing fans. Unfortunately for Miami, they also have played their best ball on the road.
While Baltimore has many players with playoff and even Super Bowl winning experience, the Dolphins have just 18 players with any playoff experience. We expect that to be the difference early and late in this game, as an early mistake by Miami should help get the Ravens in front, and a late mistake should seal their fate.
We have numerous NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS in agreement:
After covering the spread as a double-digit favorite to end the season as the Ravens did, teams have entered the playoffs in strong fashion, as revealed by a small-sample POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off a regular season non-shutout SU & ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are 7-0 SU (+16.9 ppg) & 6-0-1 ATS (+12.8 ppg).
Meanwhile:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off regular season road SU wins in its last 2 games.
These road-weary teams have gone 0-5 ATS since 1994, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The Dolphins likely left their best effort on the field with their upset win over the Jets at New York last week.
Home teams starting the playoffs against an opponent with the same record in the regular season have had a very hard time, which is the case here. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
Play AGAINST a home team in its First Playoff Game vs. an opponent with the same regular season record.
Since 2002, these teams are 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 8 ppg on average, including the Bengals home underdog SU & ATS loss to Pittsburgh in 2005.
Miami has not enjoyed an easy win the past few weeks, and without a recent double-digit win, teams have struggled in the playoffs. This is confirmed by our database research which resulted in an NFL POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard team (not a division underdog) off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points (road team if rematch of last game) vs. an opponent not off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points AND fewer points scored in its highest scoring contest of the 3 games.
Since 1998, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 9 ppg on average.
Finally, after playing a division foe as a clear underdog, teams have really struggled in the playoff WildCard and Semi-Final rounds. The Dolphins are active for this POWER SYSTEM as well, which states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points (underdog if opponent also off a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points) vs. a non-2-time-defending Super Bowl Champion opponent not played in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are a horrible 0-24 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 ppg on average. This system was 4-0 ATS, and is already 1-0 this season with the Colts SU & ATS loss at San Diego on Saturday.
Under most circumstances, we would fade a rookie QB and rookie head coach on the NFL Playoff road, as we did on Saturday with Atlanta; however, the Ravens rookie is playing as well as Miami’s Pennington right now, and the Dolphins have a new staff themselves. Baltimore still has many veterans from previous playoff runs, especially on a defense that should set the tone early this game. Another big edge enjoyed by the Ravens here is having Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator. He was the Dolphins head coach last season, so he knows their personnel very well, and was certainly a factor in their win at Miami earlier this season. Also as noted, both of these teams played better on the road, which is reflected by our Power Ratings which show a fairly comfortable SU & ATS win for the visitors.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 24 MIAMI 14
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HIS EXACT POST :
lock of the year
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salukis 0-2 in conference will certainly be ready for max effort today. Sure a couple of kids quit the team, but rotation is deep and the line is very very cheap for a so ill, drake game. Evanseville was 3 over drake and won handily. I see similar here. So Ill missed many easy shots in surprising loss to No Iowa. Hope a repeat is not in order. I would be shocked to see it. Very very very big bet on So ill at any price available.<!-- / message -->
INDIAN COWBOY
NBA: 8 of 11 Winning POD. (2-0 Jan)
3-1 Saturday:
5* Penn State +9 over Wisconsin: (Big 10 GOM: Winner) (26-8 Lifetime, 5* now).
Timberwolves +6.5: Outright Winner.
Colts/Chargers Under: Winner.
Buffalo +6: Loss.
4 Unit Play. #703. Take Washington +9 over Cleveland Cavaliers. (Sunday @ 1pm est).
We are doing very well in the NBA over the last 11 day up over 20 units and winning 8 of 11 days and 3 in a row. Let's keep focused and let's keep it going. Sometimes in the NBA you just have to hold your nose and roll. I took the Timberwolves yesterday as +6.5 dogs over the Bulls and stated they are likely to win outright - and they did. The day before was our 5* NBA GOM and I mentioned how the Kings at +8.5 were likely to get it done over the Pistons and they did - albeit barely as they lost by 6 but still covered. It all depends on going the full scope of research and what pans out from there. Thus, such is the case with our pick today. We are going to ride the 6 win Washington Wizards. Sure, they have 6 wins and sure they were terrible at the beginning of the year. But, here is the catch, they had covered 4 straight games. This started on December 31st against the Cavaliers on the road where Mike James faced his old team and this Wizards team nearly won outright as massive 15 point dog. Then, this team defeated Houston outright on the road (covered), covered against New Orleans on the road and hammered OKC at home as well. Then, this team went to Boston and got hammered. But, that not entirely their fault. See, you have to know the history between these two teams Boston was swept by Washington in the 3 games they met last year. So, Boston hammered this team at Washington and at home as they were irritated that Washington had that edge. Boston was also coming off a tough loss at Portland - so they were even more fired up to crush the Wizards coming off a SU loss. But, the Wizards now return home as they are playing well. Mike James faces his old team once again in which he put up 20+ points at Cleveland last time. Washington comes off a tough loss, had covered 4 straight prior to that, nearly defeated the Cavs outright on the road last time around and now faces them at home and without a doubt they will be up for this game. I expect Washington to be very game here, with a small shot at an outright, but I'll take the 9 points as we look for winning day #4 in a row and winning day #9 of 12 in the NBA. The Cavs come off a big public win over the Bulls so this will be a tougher spread to cover here as they are in the public eye, the public will likely get buried here as they are backed by 68% of the public and the underdog is 4-0 ATS over the last four games between these two teams.
4 Unit Play. Take Fairfield +2 over Iona (Sunday @ 3:30pm est). Glad we cashed on Penn State yesterday, let's keep focused and going. I love the Big 10 so I am likely to continue the 5* Big GOM often from here on out. There are a several conferences that I follow very closely in college basketball. After all, why not follow several closely through the course of the season and profit rather than follow many and have no direct beat on many of the teams. Thus, I follow Big 10, Big East, and Metro Atlantic Basketball very closely. Sure, on those days when these conferences are not in play, than I just resort to the research and power rankings. As per this play, we have rode Fairfield several times this year already and they have cashed. If you remember, we took them as big dogs at Villanova - they covered. We took Fairfield as big dogs against Uconn and that too covered the other Friday in fact. We nearly took them against op 70 Siena in conference and they covered as well. So, why would we not take top 125 Fairfield, a team that I have been high on all year, as they play top 200 Iona on the road. Now, Iona only lost to this team by 2 points last time around in a revenge game. They certainly have that angle. But, do you think Fairfield cares coming ff a tough loss top Siena on the road? Heck, they nearly won that game and have been strong all year long. Fairfield is 8-5. They will contend for the Metro Atlantic Title this year. The losses come to very competent teams including Memphis on the road, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Uconn and Siena (top 75). I think that bears competing. What you have a is a team that has five losses to the likes of once again, power houses Memphis, Va Tech, Mizzou, Uconn and Metro Atlantic Leader Siena. That's it. Those are their five losses. Plus, you are somehow going to make this team a dog playing Iona? If Iona thought top 250 Rider and Robert Morris was tough, good luck facing a Fairfield team that has beat the likes of Drexel and American University. Here's the deal though. Iona lost to this team by just 2 points on the road and that was this year. So, they have revenge. But, once again, I think that element is a wash considering that Fairfield comes off a loss of their own to Siena and needs this conference win. Give me Nero, Johnson and Han to get it done as that dynamic trio put up 55 points against Siena. The Stags are 6-2 ATS when facing winning teams of late meaning they show up against the better teams such as Uconn, Villanova and Siena.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 37.5 between the Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (January 4th @ 1pm). Whenever the Baltimore Ravens face teams on the road and are in competitive games, the games go over. Look at the Dallas game where the final score was 57 points. In fact, on the road this year, Baltimore has gone over the posted total to a tune of 6-1-1. Remember, the game against the Steelers went over, a rare under in Indianapolis (which favors our under when the Colts play the Chargers), the over in Dallas, the over in Miami, the over in Cleveland, the over in Houston, and the over in Cincinnati. The Ravens have put up 33 @ Dallas, 34@ Cincy, 41 @ Houston, 37@ Cleveland and 27@ Miami. This Ravens team is on a mission and by no means hesitates to blow teams out. Look for a slow pace to start off with but Miami has to be dynamic on offense this time around at home where I expect them to do better on offense. I think Baltimore pushes the envelope and it forces Miami to take more shots down the field in the second half. Once agian, the Ravens are 6-1-1 to the over on the road this year. Remember, when this team played New England, the total ended up finishing off at 76 total points so totals can go over in Miami when they face competent teams.
3 Unit Play. Take Under 41.5 between the Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (January 4th @ 4:30pm est). So, who is going to score in this game? You think the Vikings are going to put up a ton of points at home? Think again. If Tony Romo struggles against an Eagles defense that throws anyone and everyone at you, then why would Tavaris Jackson do any better? Look, the TJackson was lucky to even lead his team to victory against the Giants as he connected with Berrian late. He is still medicore when compared to Gus Ferrote who was phenomenal this season but will likely not play due to a finger injury. If Ferrotte plays, than our under is shot imo. But, Jackson will take the snaps, get blitzed out of his mind and I expect him to not be very efficient or successful in this contest. Remember, this game might shape up very similar to when the Falcons held the Vikings to 17 points on the road. In that same token, although the Eagles offense has come back of late, remember, this team is different when they are on the highway. They tied the Bengals to a 13 all final. Heck, 74% are on the Eagles. Having said that, it's hard for me to wager on the Vikings to upset the Eagles outright although the consensus points to a public burial and the Vikings actually winning or covering. But, I just cannot bring myself to wager on Tjackson. Now, I can wager on the Vikings defense who ranks #1 in the league in stopping the rush and #6 overall on defense. Do you remember when Carolina came into Minnesota earlier this year? The final score was barn-burner of 20-10. The total is low but it is low for a reason in my opinion. Look for the Eagles to struggle in the Dome and look for Tjackson to struggle against an Eagles defense that only their legendary defensive coordinator can draw up for a young QB. 16-13 type of final? Let's be game for that type of result.
NBA: 8 of 11 Winning POD. (2-0 Jan)
3-1 Saturday:
5* Penn State +9 over Wisconsin: (Big 10 GOM: Winner) (26-8 Lifetime, 5* now).
Timberwolves +6.5: Outright Winner.
Colts/Chargers Under: Winner.
Buffalo +6: Loss.
4 Unit Play. #703. Take Washington +9 over Cleveland Cavaliers. (Sunday @ 1pm est).
We are doing very well in the NBA over the last 11 day up over 20 units and winning 8 of 11 days and 3 in a row. Let's keep focused and let's keep it going. Sometimes in the NBA you just have to hold your nose and roll. I took the Timberwolves yesterday as +6.5 dogs over the Bulls and stated they are likely to win outright - and they did. The day before was our 5* NBA GOM and I mentioned how the Kings at +8.5 were likely to get it done over the Pistons and they did - albeit barely as they lost by 6 but still covered. It all depends on going the full scope of research and what pans out from there. Thus, such is the case with our pick today. We are going to ride the 6 win Washington Wizards. Sure, they have 6 wins and sure they were terrible at the beginning of the year. But, here is the catch, they had covered 4 straight games. This started on December 31st against the Cavaliers on the road where Mike James faced his old team and this Wizards team nearly won outright as massive 15 point dog. Then, this team defeated Houston outright on the road (covered), covered against New Orleans on the road and hammered OKC at home as well. Then, this team went to Boston and got hammered. But, that not entirely their fault. See, you have to know the history between these two teams Boston was swept by Washington in the 3 games they met last year. So, Boston hammered this team at Washington and at home as they were irritated that Washington had that edge. Boston was also coming off a tough loss at Portland - so they were even more fired up to crush the Wizards coming off a SU loss. But, the Wizards now return home as they are playing well. Mike James faces his old team once again in which he put up 20+ points at Cleveland last time. Washington comes off a tough loss, had covered 4 straight prior to that, nearly defeated the Cavs outright on the road last time around and now faces them at home and without a doubt they will be up for this game. I expect Washington to be very game here, with a small shot at an outright, but I'll take the 9 points as we look for winning day #4 in a row and winning day #9 of 12 in the NBA. The Cavs come off a big public win over the Bulls so this will be a tougher spread to cover here as they are in the public eye, the public will likely get buried here as they are backed by 68% of the public and the underdog is 4-0 ATS over the last four games between these two teams.
4 Unit Play. Take Fairfield +2 over Iona (Sunday @ 3:30pm est). Glad we cashed on Penn State yesterday, let's keep focused and going. I love the Big 10 so I am likely to continue the 5* Big GOM often from here on out. There are a several conferences that I follow very closely in college basketball. After all, why not follow several closely through the course of the season and profit rather than follow many and have no direct beat on many of the teams. Thus, I follow Big 10, Big East, and Metro Atlantic Basketball very closely. Sure, on those days when these conferences are not in play, than I just resort to the research and power rankings. As per this play, we have rode Fairfield several times this year already and they have cashed. If you remember, we took them as big dogs at Villanova - they covered. We took Fairfield as big dogs against Uconn and that too covered the other Friday in fact. We nearly took them against op 70 Siena in conference and they covered as well. So, why would we not take top 125 Fairfield, a team that I have been high on all year, as they play top 200 Iona on the road. Now, Iona only lost to this team by 2 points last time around in a revenge game. They certainly have that angle. But, do you think Fairfield cares coming ff a tough loss top Siena on the road? Heck, they nearly won that game and have been strong all year long. Fairfield is 8-5. They will contend for the Metro Atlantic Title this year. The losses come to very competent teams including Memphis on the road, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Uconn and Siena (top 75). I think that bears competing. What you have a is a team that has five losses to the likes of once again, power houses Memphis, Va Tech, Mizzou, Uconn and Metro Atlantic Leader Siena. That's it. Those are their five losses. Plus, you are somehow going to make this team a dog playing Iona? If Iona thought top 250 Rider and Robert Morris was tough, good luck facing a Fairfield team that has beat the likes of Drexel and American University. Here's the deal though. Iona lost to this team by just 2 points on the road and that was this year. So, they have revenge. But, once again, I think that element is a wash considering that Fairfield comes off a loss of their own to Siena and needs this conference win. Give me Nero, Johnson and Han to get it done as that dynamic trio put up 55 points against Siena. The Stags are 6-2 ATS when facing winning teams of late meaning they show up against the better teams such as Uconn, Villanova and Siena.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 37.5 between the Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (January 4th @ 1pm). Whenever the Baltimore Ravens face teams on the road and are in competitive games, the games go over. Look at the Dallas game where the final score was 57 points. In fact, on the road this year, Baltimore has gone over the posted total to a tune of 6-1-1. Remember, the game against the Steelers went over, a rare under in Indianapolis (which favors our under when the Colts play the Chargers), the over in Dallas, the over in Miami, the over in Cleveland, the over in Houston, and the over in Cincinnati. The Ravens have put up 33 @ Dallas, 34@ Cincy, 41 @ Houston, 37@ Cleveland and 27@ Miami. This Ravens team is on a mission and by no means hesitates to blow teams out. Look for a slow pace to start off with but Miami has to be dynamic on offense this time around at home where I expect them to do better on offense. I think Baltimore pushes the envelope and it forces Miami to take more shots down the field in the second half. Once agian, the Ravens are 6-1-1 to the over on the road this year. Remember, when this team played New England, the total ended up finishing off at 76 total points so totals can go over in Miami when they face competent teams.
3 Unit Play. Take Under 41.5 between the Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (January 4th @ 4:30pm est). So, who is going to score in this game? You think the Vikings are going to put up a ton of points at home? Think again. If Tony Romo struggles against an Eagles defense that throws anyone and everyone at you, then why would Tavaris Jackson do any better? Look, the TJackson was lucky to even lead his team to victory against the Giants as he connected with Berrian late. He is still medicore when compared to Gus Ferrote who was phenomenal this season but will likely not play due to a finger injury. If Ferrotte plays, than our under is shot imo. But, Jackson will take the snaps, get blitzed out of his mind and I expect him to not be very efficient or successful in this contest. Remember, this game might shape up very similar to when the Falcons held the Vikings to 17 points on the road. In that same token, although the Eagles offense has come back of late, remember, this team is different when they are on the highway. They tied the Bengals to a 13 all final. Heck, 74% are on the Eagles. Having said that, it's hard for me to wager on the Vikings to upset the Eagles outright although the consensus points to a public burial and the Vikings actually winning or covering. But, I just cannot bring myself to wager on Tjackson. Now, I can wager on the Vikings defense who ranks #1 in the league in stopping the rush and #6 overall on defense. Do you remember when Carolina came into Minnesota earlier this year? The final score was barn-burner of 20-10. The total is low but it is low for a reason in my opinion. Look for the Eagles to struggle in the Dome and look for Tjackson to struggle against an Eagles defense that only their legendary defensive coordinator can draw up for a young QB. 16-13 type of final? Let's be game for that type of result.
Kevin Kavitch
The Philly D is the reason they're here and they've played extremely well down the stretch. They faced good offenses and proved they can hold up vs the run. That's very important here. The Minnesota D has also played well down the stretch and will get a boost from the home crowd. The Philly offense has alot of quality players but the yardage generated has been far from impressive. You know that Minnesota will want to pound the rock on the ground if possible and limit turnovers. I can see a game where neither offense pushes each other on the scoreboard and 41 is a very key number. Lots of ways to cash this one. Play Under 41 for a 3* Regular Play.
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The Philly D is the reason they're here and they've played extremely well down the stretch. They faced good offenses and proved they can hold up vs the run. That's very important here. The Minnesota D has also played well down the stretch and will get a boost from the home crowd. The Philly offense has alot of quality players but the yardage generated has been far from impressive. You know that Minnesota will want to pound the rock on the ground if possible and limit turnovers. I can see a game where neither offense pushes each other on the scoreboard and 41 is a very key number. Lots of ways to cash this one. Play Under 41 for a 3* Regular Play.
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Here's a PM I recieved from one of the members of the Dr. Coglye West group:
Coglye's 8* play
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this was not posted earlier.... we have a total of 8 members who will be subscribing to Dr. Coglye's monthly subscription starting Sunday for $1399; for the 8 of us that is $165 each; let me know if you are interested and will provide infor that you need to send to whom is organizing this; would reduce cost for each member to approx. $145 per person; also gives us the ability to obtain Dr. Guru and Big Daddy's selections in exchange for communicating Coglye's picks
theyre clearly making this a power battle... exchanging picks for picks through private communications????? why is there even a community forum then????
Coglye's 8* play
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this was not posted earlier.... we have a total of 8 members who will be subscribing to Dr. Coglye's monthly subscription starting Sunday for $1399; for the 8 of us that is $165 each; let me know if you are interested and will provide infor that you need to send to whom is organizing this; would reduce cost for each member to approx. $145 per person; also gives us the ability to obtain Dr. Guru and Big Daddy's selections in exchange for communicating Coglye's picks
theyre clearly making this a power battle... exchanging picks for picks through private communications????? why is there even a community forum then????
.
Chuck O'Luck
My NFL Wildcard Playoff Card(3-0)
Reply Favorites
5* Balt -3
5* San Diego +1'..........WINNER
4* Philly -3
4* Arizona +1'...............WINNER
3* Atl/Ari OVER 50'........WINNER
Good Luck To All!
"I'm Your Huckleberry!"
CFB 90-81 Plus 86.8*s
NFL 85-64 Plus 29.5*s
CBB 7-10 minus 22.7
CFB Bowls 20-10 plus 36.2*s
Chuck O'Luck
My NFL Wildcard Playoff Card(3-0)
Reply Favorites
5* Balt -3
5* San Diego +1'..........WINNER
4* Philly -3
4* Arizona +1'...............WINNER
3* Atl/Ari OVER 50'........WINNER
Good Luck To All!
"I'm Your Huckleberry!"
CFB 90-81 Plus 86.8*s
NFL 85-64 Plus 29.5*s
CBB 7-10 minus 22.7
CFB Bowls 20-10 plus 36.2*s
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Eagles -3 & Eagles/Vikings UNDER 41.5
Andy Reid has never lost in the first round in any of the years he has made the playoffs, so I’m giving him a coaching edge today over his former coordinator Brad Childress. A lot of things had to fall in place for the Eagles to even be here, but even with their ups and downs this is a dangerous team that nobody should want to face. Minnesota I feel like had too many close wins this year and got lucky at times with big plays on defense and special teams. A major problem I have with the Vikings today is with their quarterback play. Tavaris Jackson just hasn’t been dependable and the Vikings won’t be able to move the ball against this defense is he doesn’t step up. Plus, he hasn’t had all that much time under center, being replaced after two games and then coming in for the last 3.5? Doesn’t seem like a great way to go about entering the playoffs. It’s tough to win in the playoffs without a quality quarterback and against the Eagles top 5 defense that is going to hold true today. Minnesota also has struggled with some injury problems on defense, which should enable Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to move the ball just enough to come away with a pretty easy win on the road to start the playoffs. Both defenses match up pretty well against the other team’s offensive strengths, so I’ll take the trusty group of veterans who have been here before in a low scoring battle.
Predicted Score: Eagles 21, Vikings 13
Philadelphia Eagles -3 & Eagles/Vikings UNDER 41.5
Andy Reid has never lost in the first round in any of the years he has made the playoffs, so I’m giving him a coaching edge today over his former coordinator Brad Childress. A lot of things had to fall in place for the Eagles to even be here, but even with their ups and downs this is a dangerous team that nobody should want to face. Minnesota I feel like had too many close wins this year and got lucky at times with big plays on defense and special teams. A major problem I have with the Vikings today is with their quarterback play. Tavaris Jackson just hasn’t been dependable and the Vikings won’t be able to move the ball against this defense is he doesn’t step up. Plus, he hasn’t had all that much time under center, being replaced after two games and then coming in for the last 3.5? Doesn’t seem like a great way to go about entering the playoffs. It’s tough to win in the playoffs without a quality quarterback and against the Eagles top 5 defense that is going to hold true today. Minnesota also has struggled with some injury problems on defense, which should enable Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to move the ball just enough to come away with a pretty easy win on the road to start the playoffs. Both defenses match up pretty well against the other team’s offensive strengths, so I’ll take the trusty group of veterans who have been here before in a low scoring battle.
Predicted Score: Eagles 21, Vikings 13
...IT WON'T TAKE LONG..:toast:
