Ben Burns | NBA Sides Sun, 01/30/11 - 8:05 PM
triple-dime bet 812 PHO -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 811 NOH
Analysis: I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Suns are a team which has always been able to put up points. Lately, they've started to show that they can also get it done on the other side of the ball. I won with the Suns in their last game. Listed as underdogs, they destroyed Boston by double-digits. The really impressive part was that they held the Celtics to a mere 71 points. That was the fewest points which the Suns had allowed since 2001. Off that superb performance, I expect the Suns to bring both positive momentum and confidence into today's game.
Michael Pietrus, one of five Suns to score in double-digits against the Celtics said this of his new team's defensive play against Boston: "I've heard about how the Suns are soft. That's not going to happen this year. We're not going to be soft. I'm going to make sure when we come out on the floor, we're going to come out hard."
Even with Friday's great defensive effort, the Suns are still allowing 107 points per game, 104.9 here in the desert. However, note that the Hornets are only 7-13 ATS their last 20 games against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. Looking back further finds the Hornets at a money-burning 44-72-1 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more points over the past few seasons.
In addition to having both "confidence" and "momentum," the Suns have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Additionally, they've got the schedule in their favor. While Phoenix ha~d yesterday off, New Orleans played at Sacramento, less than 24 hours ago.
The Suns are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings in this series. They won the last two games here by scores of 120-106 and 124-104. I expect another victory here. *3
Pick Made: Jan 30 2011 7:12AM PST
Ben Burns | NBA Total Sun, 01/30/11 - 6:05 PM
triple-dime bet 807 DEN / 808 PHI Under 208.5 BetUS
Analysis: I'm playing on Denver and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other, at Denver, on Boxing Day. That 12/26 game had an O/U line of 207.5 but finished with only 184 combined points, a 95-89 victory for the 76ers. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected.
The fact that the 76ers upset the Nuggets in the earlier meeting is significant. Denver has seen the UNDER go 13-4-2 the last 19 times that it played with "revenge" from an earlier loss, including 3-1-1 when attempting to avenge a home loss.
The fact that the 76ers are currently listed as small favorites is also noteworthy. The 76ers have sen the UNDER go an extremely profitable 62-48-3 the last 113 times that they were listed as home favorites of -3 points or less, including 11-4-1 their last 16 in that situation, 3-0 the last three.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 45-22-1 the pa~st few seasons, when listed as underdogs. That includes a 13-8 mark as road underdogs of three or fewer points. (Note that the Nuggets last four games all finished 'over' but they were favored in each of those. They've been underdogs twice in 2011 and both those games stayed below the total)
While the earlier low-scoring game was at Denver, games in this series have also been low-scoring here at Philadelphia. Last year's game here had an O/U line of 217 but finished with only 176 points. The Nuggets' trip here the previous season had an O/U line of 200.5 but finished with 190 combined points.
Given the stats mentioned above and given the fact that each of the 76ers last eight games have ALL finished with 201 or fewer points, I feel this number will also prove to be too high. *3
Pick Made: Jan 30 2011 7:22AM PST
BOOKIEASSASSIN
Jimmy Robinson
Indiana +11 Over MICHIGAN ST. 20 Dimes
-The Spartans usually start off slow every year and this year everyone is waiting for them to turn the corner. This year I don't think it's going to happen. MSU is 12-8 and lost four of their last six. They haven't had a double digit victory since Dec 18th vs. Prairie View A&M. Look for the Hoosiers to keep this one close if not pick up the win.
ST. JOHN'S +9 Over Duke 20 Dimes
-Without Kyrie Irving Duke is no longer the invincible team and they have had trouble vs. St. John's in the past. Duke is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Look for the Red Storm to nearly pull off the upset.
Wis. Milwaukee -3 Over Wright St. 20 Dimes
Michigan St./Indiana Under 138.5 20 Dimes
Jimmy Robinson
Indiana +11 Over MICHIGAN ST. 20 Dimes
-The Spartans usually start off slow every year and this year everyone is waiting for them to turn the corner. This year I don't think it's going to happen. MSU is 12-8 and lost four of their last six. They haven't had a double digit victory since Dec 18th vs. Prairie View A&M. Look for the Hoosiers to keep this one close if not pick up the win.
ST. JOHN'S +9 Over Duke 20 Dimes
-Without Kyrie Irving Duke is no longer the invincible team and they have had trouble vs. St. John's in the past. Duke is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Look for the Red Storm to nearly pull off the upset.
Wis. Milwaukee -3 Over Wright St. 20 Dimes
Michigan St./Indiana Under 138.5 20 Dimes
BOOKIEASSASSIN
Richie Carerra
Wright St. +3 over WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE 10 Dimes
My only Sunday play. 2 reasons that people will shy away from the Raiders on Sunday:
1. Poor shooting of late. The Raiders have gone cold from the field. I look to the fact that they are 7-3 in their last 10 despite their poor shooting. They are good enough to win SU over Wis-Mil without their best shooting effort. I know this because it already happened during that aforementioned 10 game stretch. They held the Panthers to just 44 points en route to securing a 22 point victory.
2. This one is at Milwaukee. I know. I know. The Raiders are rounding out a tiring 4 game road trip, meanwhile Wis-Mil has been playing better of late with big wins over Butler and Detroit. I still don't think they are good enough to overcome a more polished WSU team. Wright State isn't flashy and won't dominate in any particular aspect of the game, but they will not turn the ball over. They play disciplined and that should be the focus of Sunday's game.
Richie Carerra
Wright St. +3 over WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE 10 Dimes
My only Sunday play. 2 reasons that people will shy away from the Raiders on Sunday:
1. Poor shooting of late. The Raiders have gone cold from the field. I look to the fact that they are 7-3 in their last 10 despite their poor shooting. They are good enough to win SU over Wis-Mil without their best shooting effort. I know this because it already happened during that aforementioned 10 game stretch. They held the Panthers to just 44 points en route to securing a 22 point victory.
2. This one is at Milwaukee. I know. I know. The Raiders are rounding out a tiring 4 game road trip, meanwhile Wis-Mil has been playing better of late with big wins over Butler and Detroit. I still don't think they are good enough to overcome a more polished WSU team. Wright State isn't flashy and won't dominate in any particular aspect of the game, but they will not turn the ball over. They play disciplined and that should be the focus of Sunday's game.
BOOKIEASSASSIN
John Chang
MARIST RED FOXES -1.5 over Manhattan Jaspers, 10 dimes
Both of these teams are God-Awful, but the home team will have enough of an advantage here to pull off the win and cover. We can find some comfort in the fact that Marist has already defeated the Jaspers in Manhattan a couple weeks ago.
DUQUESNE DUKES -7.5 over Dayton Flyers, 10 dimes
Duquesne and their explosive offense have been blasting through opponents during this impressive 9 game win streak. Every one of these wins has come by double digits, including a12 point win at home against Temple. The Dukes have covered in 5 straight games that have had a spread. Dayton is a talented team, but Duquesne is scoring points at an alarming rate.
SOUTH ALABAMA -3 over Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 10 dimes
Every once in a while, I find a team that I love to continually bet against on the road. The Ragin Cajuns fall into this category. They are completely inept once they leave home, dropping all ten of their road games this year. Lay the home chalk with confidence.
Boston Celtics/LOS ANGELES LAKERS under 184, 10 dimes
These two teams have been heavily trending on the under in their last handful of games. Defense has ruled lately for these two clubs, and in the last 5 head-to-head matchups, noone has scored more than 96 points. Expect a low-scoring affair at the Staples Center this afternoon.
John Chang
MARIST RED FOXES -1.5 over Manhattan Jaspers, 10 dimes
Both of these teams are God-Awful, but the home team will have enough of an advantage here to pull off the win and cover. We can find some comfort in the fact that Marist has already defeated the Jaspers in Manhattan a couple weeks ago.
DUQUESNE DUKES -7.5 over Dayton Flyers, 10 dimes
Duquesne and their explosive offense have been blasting through opponents during this impressive 9 game win streak. Every one of these wins has come by double digits, including a12 point win at home against Temple. The Dukes have covered in 5 straight games that have had a spread. Dayton is a talented team, but Duquesne is scoring points at an alarming rate.
SOUTH ALABAMA -3 over Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 10 dimes
Every once in a while, I find a team that I love to continually bet against on the road. The Ragin Cajuns fall into this category. They are completely inept once they leave home, dropping all ten of their road games this year. Lay the home chalk with confidence.
Boston Celtics/LOS ANGELES LAKERS under 184, 10 dimes
These two teams have been heavily trending on the under in their last handful of games. Defense has ruled lately for these two clubs, and in the last 5 head-to-head matchups, noone has scored more than 96 points. Expect a low-scoring affair at the Staples Center this afternoon.
