SPORTS WAGERS
NEW YORK +1.42 over Dallas
If there’s such a thing as a good loss, one need not look further than the Knicks last game against the Lakers. The Lakers came in with a big chip on its shoulder after losing to the Cav’s again the previous night. Ask Kobe what building he loves to play in the most and he’ll instantly reply MSG. The Lakers had a huge edge with its inside game yet the Knicks battled them hard right up to the final three minutes or so and in fact, led a good portion of the way. That was the definition of a good loss and the Knicks have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They won over the fans, media and everyone else with that effort and this is a team whose stock is going to skyrocket in the very near future. Remember, the Knicks started 1-9 and are now 17-25 so they’ve gone 16 and 16 since that start and they’re getting better with each passing game. If David Lee doesn’t make the all-star team it’ll be a crime because this guy is wickedly good and one of the leagues best, bar none. Anyway, the Mav’s are among the elite teams but this will be its fifth straight on the road and its worth noting that they’re not going so good right now. In fact, they’ve dropped four of its last seven with and these afternoon games are something they do not respond to. This will be the Mav’s third afternoon game this season and they’re 0-2 with two blowout losses including last week’s 22-point loss at Toronto. Knicks straight up. Play: New York +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
SETON HALL –2½ over Pittsburgh
What a great set-up for the Pirates of Seton Hall in one of the more intriguing match-ups of the year. First, we have the unranked Pirates at home playing the 11th ranked team in the nation, yet the Pirates are a small favorite. That in itself is interesting because it’s unusual to see a team ranked as high as #11 a pooch to an unranked team. Furthermore, The Hall is just 11-6 on the year and 2-4 in conference play while the Panthers are 5-1 in conference play and 15-3 overall and there are no injuries to report. Thing is, The Hall has played an extremely tough schedule that includes games against #5 Syracuse, #6 West Virginia, Va Tech and Temple, the only team to beat “Nova. It’s last four games were against UConn, Cinci, Georgetown and Louisville and one could argue that was the toughest stretch of eight games that any team in the country has faced and the Pirates did not look a bit out of place against any of them. This team is very battle-tested, they’re getting better, they have an outstanding guard in Jimmy Hanzell and they’re also deep. The Panthers have some great wins, make no mistake about that, which includes a 10-point win at Syracuse and a 10-point win at UConn. However, they haven’t looked as sharp in its last two but this is more about playing on one of the rising stars in the nation, the Seton Hall Pirates, a dangerous team that will play its heart out every game and that will be extremely difficult to beat on its home floor. Play: Seton Hall –2½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
CAROLINA –1.03 over Boston
The puck line says it all here in that if you play Boston you’re going to lay a half puck and take back 61 cents and thus, if you take Carolina plus a half puck you’re going to have to lay 75 cents. This type of line is one you won’t find often throughout the course of a season, meaning this high a take-back on the favorite, as it’s a huge enticement to wager on them. After all, who in their right mind would take the worst team in the NHL and lay 75 cents on them? So, you can break down all the stats you like but this one is solely based on the puck line suggestion that at the very worst the Canes will take this to OT but in all likelihood will be leading after 60 minutes. The line says so. Play: Carolina –1.03 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO -½ +1.07 over Dallas
If you watched Don Cherry’s coaches corner last night then you heard him comment about how the Oilers were robbed by phantom penalties when they played the Stars on Friday. Cherry was right, as he usually is, but the point is the Stars were badly outplayed again and had no right winning that game. Dallas has now won just one road game in its last 10 and asking them to win two straight after consecutive road games in Western Canada is a tough, tough assignment. Besides that, the Av’s are on fire again with five straight wins and that includes victories over, New Jersey, Buffalo and Calgary, the latter two on the road. Not only did the Av’s win they outscored its opponents 18-7 over its current five gamer. Colorado has won three in a row at home also and during that stretch they’ve outscored the opposition 11-2. Craig Anderson is playing as good or better than anyone in the game and these Av’s are as determined as anyone too. The better team, the hungrier team and hot vs cold gets the call. Play: Colorado -½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
NEW YORK +1.42 over Dallas
If there’s such a thing as a good loss, one need not look further than the Knicks last game against the Lakers. The Lakers came in with a big chip on its shoulder after losing to the Cav’s again the previous night. Ask Kobe what building he loves to play in the most and he’ll instantly reply MSG. The Lakers had a huge edge with its inside game yet the Knicks battled them hard right up to the final three minutes or so and in fact, led a good portion of the way. That was the definition of a good loss and the Knicks have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They won over the fans, media and everyone else with that effort and this is a team whose stock is going to skyrocket in the very near future. Remember, the Knicks started 1-9 and are now 17-25 so they’ve gone 16 and 16 since that start and they’re getting better with each passing game. If David Lee doesn’t make the all-star team it’ll be a crime because this guy is wickedly good and one of the leagues best, bar none. Anyway, the Mav’s are among the elite teams but this will be its fifth straight on the road and its worth noting that they’re not going so good right now. In fact, they’ve dropped four of its last seven with and these afternoon games are something they do not respond to. This will be the Mav’s third afternoon game this season and they’re 0-2 with two blowout losses including last week’s 22-point loss at Toronto. Knicks straight up. Play: New York +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
SETON HALL –2½ over Pittsburgh
What a great set-up for the Pirates of Seton Hall in one of the more intriguing match-ups of the year. First, we have the unranked Pirates at home playing the 11th ranked team in the nation, yet the Pirates are a small favorite. That in itself is interesting because it’s unusual to see a team ranked as high as #11 a pooch to an unranked team. Furthermore, The Hall is just 11-6 on the year and 2-4 in conference play while the Panthers are 5-1 in conference play and 15-3 overall and there are no injuries to report. Thing is, The Hall has played an extremely tough schedule that includes games against #5 Syracuse, #6 West Virginia, Va Tech and Temple, the only team to beat “Nova. It’s last four games were against UConn, Cinci, Georgetown and Louisville and one could argue that was the toughest stretch of eight games that any team in the country has faced and the Pirates did not look a bit out of place against any of them. This team is very battle-tested, they’re getting better, they have an outstanding guard in Jimmy Hanzell and they’re also deep. The Panthers have some great wins, make no mistake about that, which includes a 10-point win at Syracuse and a 10-point win at UConn. However, they haven’t looked as sharp in its last two but this is more about playing on one of the rising stars in the nation, the Seton Hall Pirates, a dangerous team that will play its heart out every game and that will be extremely difficult to beat on its home floor. Play: Seton Hall –2½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
CAROLINA –1.03 over Boston
The puck line says it all here in that if you play Boston you’re going to lay a half puck and take back 61 cents and thus, if you take Carolina plus a half puck you’re going to have to lay 75 cents. This type of line is one you won’t find often throughout the course of a season, meaning this high a take-back on the favorite, as it’s a huge enticement to wager on them. After all, who in their right mind would take the worst team in the NHL and lay 75 cents on them? So, you can break down all the stats you like but this one is solely based on the puck line suggestion that at the very worst the Canes will take this to OT but in all likelihood will be leading after 60 minutes. The line says so. Play: Carolina –1.03 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO -½ +1.07 over Dallas
If you watched Don Cherry’s coaches corner last night then you heard him comment about how the Oilers were robbed by phantom penalties when they played the Stars on Friday. Cherry was right, as he usually is, but the point is the Stars were badly outplayed again and had no right winning that game. Dallas has now won just one road game in its last 10 and asking them to win two straight after consecutive road games in Western Canada is a tough, tough assignment. Besides that, the Av’s are on fire again with five straight wins and that includes victories over, New Jersey, Buffalo and Calgary, the latter two on the road. Not only did the Av’s win they outscored its opponents 18-7 over its current five gamer. Colorado has won three in a row at home also and during that stretch they’ve outscored the opposition 11-2. Craig Anderson is playing as good or better than anyone in the game and these Av’s are as determined as anyone too. The better team, the hungrier team and hot vs cold gets the call. Play: Colorado -½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Top Shelf Chicago 01/24
GAME #
NFL 7 point teaser
PLAY 1
#303 Vikings +10.5
DINE RATING
#304 Saints Over 46.5
STAR RATING
12 to win 10
What we needed to know:
1. How healthy is Jeremy Shockey!! Probable is not good enough. If he cannot stretch the seam, he cannot play. If he is unavailable, the Saints will be forced to play a 4-wide package more. The help on Jared Allen would need to come in the backfield rather than getting chipped at the line of scrimmage.. Subtle but huge.
2. Can McKinney protect Favre's edge: He was benched in week 13 for being genuinely ineffective. For all of favres great numbers, he has been sacked 34 times this year.
The saints lost last year to a Gus Ferrotte led Viking team. They missed 2 FG's, turned the ball over 4 times and took 108 yards in penalties. They won TOP, yards and field position. All this and they lost to a last second field goal. Peyton does not allow it to come down tho that this year.
The experts were talking about how the Vikings would have to establish the run to beat Dallas. When you are as good as this Viking offense is, they don't need A.P. to stand out. That is scary.. It was Favre's ability to stretch the field which carved up the Dallas secondary. He takes on a N.O. defense with 26 interceptions this year.
Stats
N.O is allowing 14..3 yards per punt return. Worst in the NFL
Minn has punted 73 times this year. Only 13 were fair caught.
These teams were pretty marginal in the return game this year. Mostly because they did not use their best players. Today's is the NFC Championship game. If they kick away from Bush and Harvin, it will be the first time this year they did.
N.O. has made only 10-14 field goals from 30-39 yards.
They have only attempted 4 outside of 40. They made 2. In a 3 point spread, that cannot be ignored.
Minn
5 of 6 30-39 yards.
8 of 9 40-50.
2 of 2 from 50+. Definite advantage.
Both these teams are coached and led by offensive minded staffs. The most talented players on the field at any time will be on offense. Both QB's complete 66+% of their passes. Both teams move the ball at will. If Ray Edwards and Harvin were not on the injury report, I rate this game at a pick. Every tout and the public is on the Saints ATS and the line has not moved since it opened. I see very little chance this is not a complete shoot out. The Vikings have advantages in all the stats which win a shoot out. Vikings and the over teased.
GAME #
NFL 7 point teaser
PLAY 1
#303 Vikings +10.5
DINE RATING
#304 Saints Over 46.5
STAR RATING
12 to win 10
What we needed to know:
1. How healthy is Jeremy Shockey!! Probable is not good enough. If he cannot stretch the seam, he cannot play. If he is unavailable, the Saints will be forced to play a 4-wide package more. The help on Jared Allen would need to come in the backfield rather than getting chipped at the line of scrimmage.. Subtle but huge.
2. Can McKinney protect Favre's edge: He was benched in week 13 for being genuinely ineffective. For all of favres great numbers, he has been sacked 34 times this year.
The saints lost last year to a Gus Ferrotte led Viking team. They missed 2 FG's, turned the ball over 4 times and took 108 yards in penalties. They won TOP, yards and field position. All this and they lost to a last second field goal. Peyton does not allow it to come down tho that this year.
The experts were talking about how the Vikings would have to establish the run to beat Dallas. When you are as good as this Viking offense is, they don't need A.P. to stand out. That is scary.. It was Favre's ability to stretch the field which carved up the Dallas secondary. He takes on a N.O. defense with 26 interceptions this year.
Stats
N.O is allowing 14..3 yards per punt return. Worst in the NFL
Minn has punted 73 times this year. Only 13 were fair caught.
These teams were pretty marginal in the return game this year. Mostly because they did not use their best players. Today's is the NFC Championship game. If they kick away from Bush and Harvin, it will be the first time this year they did.
N.O. has made only 10-14 field goals from 30-39 yards.
They have only attempted 4 outside of 40. They made 2. In a 3 point spread, that cannot be ignored.
Minn
5 of 6 30-39 yards.
8 of 9 40-50.
2 of 2 from 50+. Definite advantage.
Both these teams are coached and led by offensive minded staffs. The most talented players on the field at any time will be on offense. Both QB's complete 66+% of their passes. Both teams move the ball at will. If Ray Edwards and Harvin were not on the injury report, I rate this game at a pick. Every tout and the public is on the Saints ATS and the line has not moved since it opened. I see very little chance this is not a complete shoot out. The Vikings have advantages in all the stats which win a shoot out. Vikings and the over teased.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7
The last time the teams met, in Week 15 of the regular season, Indianapolis had a perfect record and home-field advantage throughout the postseason already locked up. Leading 15-10 in the third quarter, Colts coach Jim Caldwell made a controversial decision to rest his starters and wound up getting beat 29-15; it's not going to happen again.
More than ever, the NFL is becoming a passer’s league. In the last five years, rules have been tightened up to protect quarterbacks from injuries and keep defenders from pounding receivers a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, I believe this will be the Jets undoing as Mark Sanchez is prone to the turnover and will finally be forced to "make a couple of plays" in this one if they have any shot at winning this game; he'll be in tough against a re-juvinated Colt's defense though.
On the other side of the field: Jim Caldwell’s decision to rest his starters the final two games of the regular season drew a lot of heat. But it looks like a smart decision in hindsight; not just because the Colts’ offense returned to form fairly quickly, but because their defense flew to the ball all night against the Ravens.
In his first game since winning an unprecedented fourth NFL MVP award, Peyton Manning threw for two TD's last Saturday night in the Indianapolis Colts’ 20-3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. The decisive win came after a playoff bye, something that had been a plague, not a respite, for Manning and his teammates.
Directing a patient offense, Manning finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards. He showed the Ravens there’s a price to pay for keeping the ball out of his hands: Once he gets it, he doesn’t give it back
Keep in mind as well that Indianapolis has excelled in this position all season long; 10-5 ATS when playing the roll of favorite.
Bottom line: The Jets Cinderella run ends; look for INDIANAPOLIS to improve to 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents and for New York to fall to 1-2 ATS this season as a road dog of 7 1/2 to 10 points!
*6* COLTS.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7
The last time the teams met, in Week 15 of the regular season, Indianapolis had a perfect record and home-field advantage throughout the postseason already locked up. Leading 15-10 in the third quarter, Colts coach Jim Caldwell made a controversial decision to rest his starters and wound up getting beat 29-15; it's not going to happen again.
More than ever, the NFL is becoming a passer’s league. In the last five years, rules have been tightened up to protect quarterbacks from injuries and keep defenders from pounding receivers a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, I believe this will be the Jets undoing as Mark Sanchez is prone to the turnover and will finally be forced to "make a couple of plays" in this one if they have any shot at winning this game; he'll be in tough against a re-juvinated Colt's defense though.
On the other side of the field: Jim Caldwell’s decision to rest his starters the final two games of the regular season drew a lot of heat. But it looks like a smart decision in hindsight; not just because the Colts’ offense returned to form fairly quickly, but because their defense flew to the ball all night against the Ravens.
In his first game since winning an unprecedented fourth NFL MVP award, Peyton Manning threw for two TD's last Saturday night in the Indianapolis Colts’ 20-3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. The decisive win came after a playoff bye, something that had been a plague, not a respite, for Manning and his teammates.
Directing a patient offense, Manning finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards. He showed the Ravens there’s a price to pay for keeping the ball out of his hands: Once he gets it, he doesn’t give it back
Keep in mind as well that Indianapolis has excelled in this position all season long; 10-5 ATS when playing the roll of favorite.
Bottom line: The Jets Cinderella run ends; look for INDIANAPOLIS to improve to 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents and for New York to fall to 1-2 ATS this season as a road dog of 7 1/2 to 10 points!
*6* COLTS.
Bob Balfe
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
Both teams have explosive offense. The Saints are hard to beat at home and this is truly a game that home field advantage means a lot. The Vikings have a great defense, but on the road they were just 4-4 this season. New Orleans has so many weapons that I believe Sean Payton's play calling will have the Vikings scratching their heads all day. Adrian Peterson has fumbling problems and the Saints Defense has a ton of play makers that can force turnovers. The Saints Defense is nothing more than average, but they make big plays and turnovers mean everything in this league. Look for Brett Favre to have a decent day, but its going to take a whole lot to stop this Saints Offense. Take New Orleans.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
Both teams have explosive offense. The Saints are hard to beat at home and this is truly a game that home field advantage means a lot. The Vikings have a great defense, but on the road they were just 4-4 this season. New Orleans has so many weapons that I believe Sean Payton's play calling will have the Vikings scratching their heads all day. Adrian Peterson has fumbling problems and the Saints Defense has a ton of play makers that can force turnovers. The Saints Defense is nothing more than average, but they make big plays and turnovers mean everything in this league. Look for Brett Favre to have a decent day, but its going to take a whole lot to stop this Saints Offense. Take New Orleans.
Evan Altemus
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
New Orleans has been dominant at home this season, putting up much better statistics. Minnesota is banged up and their best play maker, Percy Harvin, is dealing with severe migraine headaches. The Vikings defense will be vulnerable this week against a Saints offense that can exploit them through the air because Drew Brees will have time to throw due to their great offensive line. Last season when these two teams met, New Orleans would have won if not for several turnovers. Minnesota has not played well on the road, and the Saints defense is able to create turnovers, especially at home. Look for the Saints to get the home win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
New Orleans has been dominant at home this season, putting up much better statistics. Minnesota is banged up and their best play maker, Percy Harvin, is dealing with severe migraine headaches. The Vikings defense will be vulnerable this week against a Saints offense that can exploit them through the air because Drew Brees will have time to throw due to their great offensive line. Last season when these two teams met, New Orleans would have won if not for several turnovers. Minnesota has not played well on the road, and the Saints defense is able to create turnovers, especially at home. Look for the Saints to get the home win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.
Tony George
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Minnys defense will not repeat last week’s shutdown of Dallas on the road where the Saint flourish. The Saints have the #1 offense at home. The Vikes have the 13th ranked offense going up against the NFLs 25th ranked defense. Both QBs and WRs for BOTH teams are awesome, top shelf guys. Adrian Petersen for the Vikes is a big playmaker, and Reggie Bush is a big playmaker. There is way too much talent in the offensive arsenal on both teams for this not to go way over the total. My power rating on this game for the total is 64. That is an 11 point overlay. Too much to ignore. When the Vikes struggle on offense, they cut loose Favre and let him do his thing. This may be Brett’s last game and rest assured they will let him do his thing.
Play 1.5 Units on the OVER
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Minnys defense will not repeat last week’s shutdown of Dallas on the road where the Saint flourish. The Saints have the #1 offense at home. The Vikes have the 13th ranked offense going up against the NFLs 25th ranked defense. Both QBs and WRs for BOTH teams are awesome, top shelf guys. Adrian Petersen for the Vikes is a big playmaker, and Reggie Bush is a big playmaker. There is way too much talent in the offensive arsenal on both teams for this not to go way over the total. My power rating on this game for the total is 64. That is an 11 point overlay. Too much to ignore. When the Vikes struggle on offense, they cut loose Favre and let him do his thing. This may be Brett’s last game and rest assured they will let him do his thing.
Play 1.5 Units on the OVER
Spartan
NEW YORK JETS +8.5
Well I suppose I am really showing my age here but that's okay, it will give you an idea of just how many big games I've seen through the years. I well recall when these teams met back in the Super Bowl and Joe Namath was making brash promises and then backing them up. If I recall the Jets were 18 point dogs that day and most folks felt the Colts would simply over power them. Now here we are years later and these teams are hooking up to see who get their ticket punched to the big show. I realize I lot of the TV experts are already proclaiming the Colts the AFC champions and the talking heads seem to assume this game is just a formality. I have a couple of problems with all that nonsense, first of all if you just listen to ESPN all day and make wagers based on what information you absorbed from the talking heads you will find yourself bankrupt, soon. Secondly, if this Jets team can travel out to San Diego and take care of the Chargers in their house, then in my view they are perfectly capable of going into Indy and going toe to toe with Mr Manning and his Colts. Rex Ryan has his team truly believing they can pull this thing off and so much of competing and excelling in games of this magnitude is self esteem, swagger and confidence. And this Jets team I have been watching the past few weeks has an abundance of all the above. I have total respect for Peyton Manning and when all is said and done he will likely go down in history and the greatest quarterback of all time, but with that said, I feel the Colts are just carrying too heavy a price tag here, I firmly feel the Jets will compete and keep this thing within the number when all is said and done. Either way a rookie coach will be leading the AFC champions into the Super Bowl. I look for a helluva game and a New York Jets cover guys!
NEW YORK JETS +8.5
Well I suppose I am really showing my age here but that's okay, it will give you an idea of just how many big games I've seen through the years. I well recall when these teams met back in the Super Bowl and Joe Namath was making brash promises and then backing them up. If I recall the Jets were 18 point dogs that day and most folks felt the Colts would simply over power them. Now here we are years later and these teams are hooking up to see who get their ticket punched to the big show. I realize I lot of the TV experts are already proclaiming the Colts the AFC champions and the talking heads seem to assume this game is just a formality. I have a couple of problems with all that nonsense, first of all if you just listen to ESPN all day and make wagers based on what information you absorbed from the talking heads you will find yourself bankrupt, soon. Secondly, if this Jets team can travel out to San Diego and take care of the Chargers in their house, then in my view they are perfectly capable of going into Indy and going toe to toe with Mr Manning and his Colts. Rex Ryan has his team truly believing they can pull this thing off and so much of competing and excelling in games of this magnitude is self esteem, swagger and confidence. And this Jets team I have been watching the past few weeks has an abundance of all the above. I have total respect for Peyton Manning and when all is said and done he will likely go down in history and the greatest quarterback of all time, but with that said, I feel the Colts are just carrying too heavy a price tag here, I firmly feel the Jets will compete and keep this thing within the number when all is said and done. Either way a rookie coach will be leading the AFC champions into the Super Bowl. I look for a helluva game and a New York Jets cover guys!
Lenny Del Genio
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Neither of these teams should have any difficulty scoring as they ranked 1-2 in the league in touchdowns scored with the Saints putting the ball in the end zone 64 times thus far. Last week, New Orleans scored 45 points for the fifth time this season. They have scored 24 or more in every win and topped the 30-point plateau ten times. They should have little difficulty scoring on a Vikings defense that has surrendered a ghastly 145 points in its last five road contests. On the flip side, Minnesota has scored 30 or more in each of its last three games and six of its last eight. They actually scored 30 or more 11 different times during the year, ranking ahead of the Saints. New Orleans defense is nothing special, allowing an average of nearly three touchdowns per game. Clearly, the winner of this game is going to be the team that outscores the other. Minnesota averages 29.6 PPG and the Saints are at 32.6. We're already talking numbers that are at least a field goal higher than what we are seeing for the posted total. Throw in the fact that eight of the last ten meetings between the team, including a 30-27 Vikings win last year without Favre, have gone Over and we really like what we see. We cashed the Vikings as three-point underdogs in that game, but were quite fortunate to as the Saints had two special teams TD's and could have had a third. Do not discount the Reggie Bush factor. Also, New Orleans led the NFL in defensive scores. Let's not forget that Favre cost the Packers two playoff games at the end of his stint due to bad decisions. The trends is this game overwhemlingly favor the Over. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 Over when as a road dog of three points or less. New Orleans is 11-2 Over when favored by or taking three or less, 11-3 Over off a home win and 17-6 Over off a spread win. Against teams averaging 27 PPG or more, the Saints score 40 points per game. They are 15-5 Over vs. teams with a winning record under Sean Payton. Should be an exciting shootout. Over Minnesota/New Orleans is our NFL "VEGAS ICON."
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Neither of these teams should have any difficulty scoring as they ranked 1-2 in the league in touchdowns scored with the Saints putting the ball in the end zone 64 times thus far. Last week, New Orleans scored 45 points for the fifth time this season. They have scored 24 or more in every win and topped the 30-point plateau ten times. They should have little difficulty scoring on a Vikings defense that has surrendered a ghastly 145 points in its last five road contests. On the flip side, Minnesota has scored 30 or more in each of its last three games and six of its last eight. They actually scored 30 or more 11 different times during the year, ranking ahead of the Saints. New Orleans defense is nothing special, allowing an average of nearly three touchdowns per game. Clearly, the winner of this game is going to be the team that outscores the other. Minnesota averages 29.6 PPG and the Saints are at 32.6. We're already talking numbers that are at least a field goal higher than what we are seeing for the posted total. Throw in the fact that eight of the last ten meetings between the team, including a 30-27 Vikings win last year without Favre, have gone Over and we really like what we see. We cashed the Vikings as three-point underdogs in that game, but were quite fortunate to as the Saints had two special teams TD's and could have had a third. Do not discount the Reggie Bush factor. Also, New Orleans led the NFL in defensive scores. Let's not forget that Favre cost the Packers two playoff games at the end of his stint due to bad decisions. The trends is this game overwhemlingly favor the Over. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 Over when as a road dog of three points or less. New Orleans is 11-2 Over when favored by or taking three or less, 11-3 Over off a home win and 17-6 Over off a spread win. Against teams averaging 27 PPG or more, the Saints score 40 points per game. They are 15-5 Over vs. teams with a winning record under Sean Payton. Should be an exciting shootout. Over Minnesota/New Orleans is our NFL "VEGAS ICON."
