John Chang of bookie assassin
PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3 over New York Jets, 20 dimes (buy the hook)
A little over a month ago, the Jets defeated the Steelers at Heinz Field, 22-17. The deciding play ended up being an early kickoff return given up by the special teams of Pittsburgh. Many factors favor Pittsburgh in this game. Even though it would be another great chapter in a storybook playoff run for the Jets, a six seed winning the AFC Championship game by winning its third consecutive road playoff game against an elite quarterback simply isn't going to happen. For one, the Jets are closer to being emotionally and physically drained than the Steelers. It's not easy to gear up the way they did and take down Manning and Brady on the road in back to back weeks. An enormous amount of emotional, mental, and physical energy was expelled by the Jets for these two wins, and for this reason alone, I wouldn't pick the Jets to win this game.
Secondly, the QB comparison heavily favors the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger lays claim to a superb 9-2 playoff record. While Mark Sanchez has a respectable amount of playoff experience in his almost complete 2 season career, he has yet to prove that he can carry his team on his back if things start to sputter for New York in this game. Big Ben has proven that he can not only win the big games, but he can lead game winning drives when called upon to do so. He's done it time and time again in the regular and post seasons.
Third, we can't ignore the fact that the Steelers were without 2 primary weapons on both sides of the ball when they lost the last matchup against the Jets. Heath Miller is a dangerous target, not just in the red zone but in the open field as well. And we all know about the magic of Troy Polamalu, perhaps the most explosive defensive player of our time. With these two players healthy and returning to the lineup, the Steelers most definitely gain at least an additional 2 point advantage in the overall scheme of this game, probably more.
Fourth, the homefield advantage for Pittsburgh is a significant factor in this head to head matchup. The New York Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 visits to Pittsburgh.
Fifth, historically the Steelers have been dominant at this stage in the season. They are 9-0 in their last nine January games. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. They've won their last 5 home playoff games in a row ATS. And the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
In many departments, the Steelers and Jets are dead even. Both defenses are top tier, both coaches prepare their teams well, the coordinators on both sides of the ball are creative and dangerous in their own rite, but when it comes down to it, the Steelers have too much on their side to not win this game by at least 3 points. The top ranked defense with game changing playmakers, and an explosive offense that not only has a proven qb and great receivers, but a strong and shifty running back who displays both power and finesse. Easy play here. Lay the 3 and plan on watching the Steelers in Dallas in two weeks.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3 over New York Jets, 20 dimes (buy the hook)
A little over a month ago, the Jets defeated the Steelers at Heinz Field, 22-17. The deciding play ended up being an early kickoff return given up by the special teams of Pittsburgh. Many factors favor Pittsburgh in this game. Even though it would be another great chapter in a storybook playoff run for the Jets, a six seed winning the AFC Championship game by winning its third consecutive road playoff game against an elite quarterback simply isn't going to happen. For one, the Jets are closer to being emotionally and physically drained than the Steelers. It's not easy to gear up the way they did and take down Manning and Brady on the road in back to back weeks. An enormous amount of emotional, mental, and physical energy was expelled by the Jets for these two wins, and for this reason alone, I wouldn't pick the Jets to win this game.
Secondly, the QB comparison heavily favors the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger lays claim to a superb 9-2 playoff record. While Mark Sanchez has a respectable amount of playoff experience in his almost complete 2 season career, he has yet to prove that he can carry his team on his back if things start to sputter for New York in this game. Big Ben has proven that he can not only win the big games, but he can lead game winning drives when called upon to do so. He's done it time and time again in the regular and post seasons.
Third, we can't ignore the fact that the Steelers were without 2 primary weapons on both sides of the ball when they lost the last matchup against the Jets. Heath Miller is a dangerous target, not just in the red zone but in the open field as well. And we all know about the magic of Troy Polamalu, perhaps the most explosive defensive player of our time. With these two players healthy and returning to the lineup, the Steelers most definitely gain at least an additional 2 point advantage in the overall scheme of this game, probably more.
Fourth, the homefield advantage for Pittsburgh is a significant factor in this head to head matchup. The New York Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 visits to Pittsburgh.
Fifth, historically the Steelers have been dominant at this stage in the season. They are 9-0 in their last nine January games. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. They've won their last 5 home playoff games in a row ATS. And the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
In many departments, the Steelers and Jets are dead even. Both defenses are top tier, both coaches prepare their teams well, the coordinators on both sides of the ball are creative and dangerous in their own rite, but when it comes down to it, the Steelers have too much on their side to not win this game by at least 3 points. The top ranked defense with game changing playmakers, and an explosive offense that not only has a proven qb and great receivers, but a strong and shifty running back who displays both power and finesse. Easy play here. Lay the 3 and plan on watching the Steelers in Dallas in two weeks.
Jimmy "The Iceman" Robinson
PITTSBURGH -3 Over New York 20 Dimes
Mark Sanchez had a great playoff run so far. What has attributed to his success is their running game. The Jets were able to run the ball effectively and that opened up the play-action pass. That won't happend Sunday. The Steelers are number one in the league in opponent rushing yards allowing only 62 per game. Last week they held the Ravens to 35 rushing yards (1.9/attempt). Teams in the playoffs that allow 75 yards or less(Pittsburgh) during the season are 15-6 ATS. Just like the Steelers did against the Ravens, they shut down the run game and forced the QB to make plays. And the last time I checked, Big Ben doesn't wear green and white.
Lastly, the Jets did beat the Steelers in their last meeting at Heinz field but I look at that game two ways. The Steelers were without Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller and in a revenge situation Ben is 5-0 straight up and ATS in the playoffs.
Prediction: Steelers 17 - Jets 10
CHICAGO +4 Over Green Bay 20 Dimes
Green Bay's achilles heel has been their special teams. The last time these two teams played Devin Hester torched them on a 63 yard punt return for a score. Even last week the Falcons scored on a 102 yard kickoff return. It's never a good sign when your weakness is special teams and your going up against the team with arguably the best return man ever in Devin Hester.
Aaron Rodgers played nearly perfect last game against the Falcons but one thing the Falcons failed to do was get a good pass rush on Rodgers. Look for Pro Bowlers Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, and Julius Peppers to disrupt Rodgers and force him to make some throws he's not comfortable with.
CBB Picks
VALPARAISO -9 Over Wisconsin Green Bay 20 Dimes
-After winning five games in a row the Crusaders are the top team in the Horizon league with a 7-1 record. At home Valpo has be dynamite winning their last five ATS. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin Green Bay's last 16 games they are 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 7-12.5 points.
KENT ST. -5.5 Over Miami Ohio 20 Dimes
-The Red Hawks are 1-7 on the road this year and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Meanwhile Kent St is 7-1 at home this year and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Fairfield -12 Over Niagara 20 Dimes
-On 1/3/11 Fairfield handled Niagara 70-48 and limited the Purple eagles to only 14 first half points. I know this one is at Niagara but I expect the outcome to be the same. Niagara is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 and Fairfield is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
PITTSBURGH -3 Over New York 20 Dimes
Mark Sanchez had a great playoff run so far. What has attributed to his success is their running game. The Jets were able to run the ball effectively and that opened up the play-action pass. That won't happend Sunday. The Steelers are number one in the league in opponent rushing yards allowing only 62 per game. Last week they held the Ravens to 35 rushing yards (1.9/attempt). Teams in the playoffs that allow 75 yards or less(Pittsburgh) during the season are 15-6 ATS. Just like the Steelers did against the Ravens, they shut down the run game and forced the QB to make plays. And the last time I checked, Big Ben doesn't wear green and white.
Lastly, the Jets did beat the Steelers in their last meeting at Heinz field but I look at that game two ways. The Steelers were without Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller and in a revenge situation Ben is 5-0 straight up and ATS in the playoffs.
Prediction: Steelers 17 - Jets 10
CHICAGO +4 Over Green Bay 20 Dimes
Green Bay's achilles heel has been their special teams. The last time these two teams played Devin Hester torched them on a 63 yard punt return for a score. Even last week the Falcons scored on a 102 yard kickoff return. It's never a good sign when your weakness is special teams and your going up against the team with arguably the best return man ever in Devin Hester.
Aaron Rodgers played nearly perfect last game against the Falcons but one thing the Falcons failed to do was get a good pass rush on Rodgers. Look for Pro Bowlers Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, and Julius Peppers to disrupt Rodgers and force him to make some throws he's not comfortable with.
CBB Picks
VALPARAISO -9 Over Wisconsin Green Bay 20 Dimes
-After winning five games in a row the Crusaders are the top team in the Horizon league with a 7-1 record. At home Valpo has be dynamite winning their last five ATS. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin Green Bay's last 16 games they are 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 7-12.5 points.
KENT ST. -5.5 Over Miami Ohio 20 Dimes
-The Red Hawks are 1-7 on the road this year and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Meanwhile Kent St is 7-1 at home this year and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Fairfield -12 Over Niagara 20 Dimes
-On 1/3/11 Fairfield handled Niagara 70-48 and limited the Purple eagles to only 14 first half points. I know this one is at Niagara but I expect the outcome to be the same. Niagara is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 and Fairfield is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN +1.12 over Wisconsin
The Wildcats have yet to beat a top-25 team but they’ve been close twice against Michigan St. and the other two were both on the road. The biggest problem for Northwestern has been rebounding or lack thereof but the Badgers aren’t much better on the boards and thus, this is the Wildcats best chance so far of beating a ranked team. The Wildcats are also a very impressive 9-1 at home while the Badgers have just one road win in four attempts and that’s significant. John Shurna, Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford make up one of the most lethal trios in the nation for the Wildcats and nobody has been able to stop them so far. Certainly for the Badgers on the road it’s a daunting task and one they’re unlikely to rise to the occasion for. This is a classic case of a ranked team spotting points on the road against an unranked opponent that usually doesn’t turn out well. The Wildcats aren’t ranked but they’re as good as many ranked teams and could find themselves in the top-25 at some point this season. We’d even go as far as saying that their chances of winning today are better than the Badgers and thus, we’ll play the home side on the money line. Play: Northwestern +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +109 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils are hot and ran their unbeaten streak to six games yesterday with a win in Philadelphia. That win along with the unbeaten streak has the Devils overvalued here. New Jersey only managed 22 shots on net yesterday and in its previous 2-0 win against the Penguins they managed just 20 shots. Now the Devils will play their third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-back matinees. They’ll host this one and with two NFL playoff games and with a huge lack of fan interest, expect one of the smallest crowds ever in New Jersey. The Panthers are not a popular team among the betting public and with three losses in a row they’re not going to attract much attention today. However, a close look reveals that all three losses came in OT and thus, that could just as easily be three wins in a row. Fact is, the Panthers have picked up points in six straight games and they have a huge edge in net this afternoon with Scott Clemmenson against Marty Brodeur. Florida has been home for 15 straight days covering six games and that’s too long for an NHL club. They embark on a six-game road trip beginning here and they’ll be raring to go in an attempt to get off to a good start. We’re very likely to get the much more motivated squad here in a favorable spot against a team that is a huge risk as the chalk. Play: Florida +109 (Risking 2 units).
NORTHWESTERN +1.12 over Wisconsin
The Wildcats have yet to beat a top-25 team but they’ve been close twice against Michigan St. and the other two were both on the road. The biggest problem for Northwestern has been rebounding or lack thereof but the Badgers aren’t much better on the boards and thus, this is the Wildcats best chance so far of beating a ranked team. The Wildcats are also a very impressive 9-1 at home while the Badgers have just one road win in four attempts and that’s significant. John Shurna, Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford make up one of the most lethal trios in the nation for the Wildcats and nobody has been able to stop them so far. Certainly for the Badgers on the road it’s a daunting task and one they’re unlikely to rise to the occasion for. This is a classic case of a ranked team spotting points on the road against an unranked opponent that usually doesn’t turn out well. The Wildcats aren’t ranked but they’re as good as many ranked teams and could find themselves in the top-25 at some point this season. We’d even go as far as saying that their chances of winning today are better than the Badgers and thus, we’ll play the home side on the money line. Play: Northwestern +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +109 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils are hot and ran their unbeaten streak to six games yesterday with a win in Philadelphia. That win along with the unbeaten streak has the Devils overvalued here. New Jersey only managed 22 shots on net yesterday and in its previous 2-0 win against the Penguins they managed just 20 shots. Now the Devils will play their third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-back matinees. They’ll host this one and with two NFL playoff games and with a huge lack of fan interest, expect one of the smallest crowds ever in New Jersey. The Panthers are not a popular team among the betting public and with three losses in a row they’re not going to attract much attention today. However, a close look reveals that all three losses came in OT and thus, that could just as easily be three wins in a row. Fact is, the Panthers have picked up points in six straight games and they have a huge edge in net this afternoon with Scott Clemmenson against Marty Brodeur. Florida has been home for 15 straight days covering six games and that’s too long for an NHL club. They embark on a six-game road trip beginning here and they’ll be raring to go in an attempt to get off to a good start. We’re very likely to get the much more motivated squad here in a favorable spot against a team that is a huge risk as the chalk. Play: Florida +109 (Risking 2 units).
jeff benton
Jeff Benton Sunday's NFL Playoff Action
60 Dime NFL playoff selection on the CHICAGO BEARS plus the points vs. the Packers. Chicago has been holding steady most of the week as a 3½-point home unaerdog. However, the public hammered Green Bay on game day in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and I expect the same thing to happen today. Therefore, it’s makes sense to wait until you can get Chicago at +4.
In any case, I’m instruclting you to buy the half point with the Bears if this line is anywhere from 3 to 4 (so if you can hold out for +4, we’re going to buy the hook and take it to +4½). Why buy the half point when I think Chicago is going to win outright? It’s just cheap insurance to purlhase to protect your investment in case this thing ends 17-13, 21-17 or 24-20 in favor of Green Bay.
15 Dime NFL playoff selection on the BEARS on the money-line vs. the Packers. Chicago is catching anywhere from +165 to +170 on the money-line.
BEARS
Let’s start with an indisputable fact: Anyone who bets the Green Bay Packers today is a freaking sucker and admitting to the entire world that he doesn’t given a crap about line value. Because let me tell you, there is absolutely NO value on Green Bay today – and I mean NONE!
How can I make such an emphatic statement? Well, follow along here:
Two weeks ago, the Packers opened up as a three-point road underdog at Philadelphia and the line was quickly bet down to 2½. Then on game day, it dropped to 2 … then 1½ … and by kickoff, some places had the game as a pick-em. Long story short, the books could not do anything to attract Eagles money, and when Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead and prevailed 21-16, every bookmaker from Vegas to Costa Rica to the guy on the street corner got clobbered.
So last week, the oddsmakers didn’t fool around with the Packers-Falcons line, opening it at Falcons minus-2½ – failing to even give Atlanta (the NFC’s #1 seed and a 14-2 team that had defaated Green Bay at home just a month prior) the token three points for home field advantage. What happened? Packers money poured in again and the line plummeted and plummeted and plummeted and by the time the game kicked off, Green Bay was a one-point road favorite in some spots. You know what happened, of course, as Aaron Rodgers had one of the best quarterbacking performances in NFL playoff history and the Packers rolled 48-21.
And again, the public and wise guys collectively robbed the sports books blind, which brings us to this NFC Championship Game and this incredible pointspread: Knowing that the Packers were going to continue to attract money, Vegas installed Green Bay as a three-point road favorite. Nope, not good enough, as the betting public continued to back the Packers. And thus the number moved to 3½ and is now poised to jump to 4.
Think about that: Green Bay, the #6 seed and playing its third straight road game, is laying more than a field goal … against a #2 seed … that’s 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS (4-0 ATS last four) since its bye week … that also happens to be a divisional rival … that also happens to have defeated Green Bay on this very same field this season.
Are you freaking KIDDING me?
Look, I know the Packers have looked terrific in the first two rounds of these playoffs, and I mean that on both sides of the ball. I also know that the Bears are still a bit of an unknlown quantity simply because last week’s 35-24 win came against the 8-9 (now 8-10) Seattle Seahawks. I understand that it’s tough to gauge what Chicago got out of that win, and certainly, the Packers will provide a stiffer challenge to the Bears than Seattle. Still, we’re talking about a team that’s now 12-5 on the season going from a 10-point home favorite to a 3½-point home underdog in the span of seven days – and not because of some key injury or something.
Guys, this isn’t the ACC or the WAC in college football where you see major line fluctuations from week to week. This is the NFL, and to think a playoff team that won its division and earned a first-round bye can be a 10-point home favorite one week and a 3½-point ‘dog the next, it’s simply unheard of.
Again, I repeat, Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including wins over the Eagles and Jets at home. Now, did one of the two losses come at Green Bay in Week 17? Yes it did (the other was an ugly 36-7 home loss to New England, but I digress). However, did that game mean ANYTHING to the Bears, who had already locked in their playoff seeding and first-round bye the previous week? Hell no. Yet despite having nothing for which to play, Chicago went to Green Bay and scared the living hell out of the Packers before falling 10-3 as an 11-point road underdog. And when I say “scared the living hell out of the Packers,” you may not remember that had Green Bay lost that game, it would’ve missed the playoffs entirely! (By the way, it was a 3-3 contest going into the fourth quarter.)
So in the span of three weeks, the Packers have gone from coming within a whisker of postseason elimination to a sizeable road favorite against a 12-5 division rival against whom the Packers scored a total of 27 points in two meetings this year. Guys, I simply cannot stress enough to how mind-boggling this is!
Listen, I know the critics have been scoffing at the Bears all season long, tabbing them a big ol’ fraud. And yet all they do is keep winning, thanks to much steadier play from QB Jay Cutler (he’s finally wised up and stopped making boneheaded mislakes that lead to crucial turnovers), much smarter play-calling from offensive coordinator Mike Martz (he’s helped rein in Cutler by utilizing the running game more) and one of the league’s best (and most underrated) defenses that gives up just 18.2 points, 312.1 total yards and 86.8 rushing yards per game (the Packers allow 109 rushing ypg).
It’s a defense that has given Rodgers and the explosive Packers fits, as evidenced by Green Bay’s point totals in the last five meetings: 17, 21, 21, 17 and 10.
Two final points to make here: 1) Special teams often goes overlooked in football, but it’s going to be a HUGE deal in this game, as Chicago (think Devin Hester) has a massive edge in this department (the Packers are terrible on punt and kick coverage – as they showed last week in Atlanta when they gave up a kick return for a TD – and they’re also not at all explosive when receiving kicks); and 2) With the Packers coming off consecutive spread-covers, it’s important to note that only once this year did Green Bay cash in at least three games in a row. That’s when it had a four-game SU and ATS run from late October to mid-November. But two of those four covers came at home, and three of those games were against non-playoff teams (Dallas with no Tony Romo, and two wins over the Vikings, a team Chicago swept by scores of 23-13 and 40-14).
Bottom line, guys: The Bears are not getting their just due here – and to be honest, I understand why. I totally understand why this pointspread is what it is: Bookmakers are tired of paying out Packers money and so they’ve set a phony line. Well, they won’t have to worry about paying Packer backers this weekend, because just like five years ago – when the Rex Grossman-led Bears pounded the upstart, everybody-is-in-love-with-them Saints 39-14 as just a 2½-point home favorite to reach the Super Bowl – Chicago is winning this game OUTRIGHT!
Bears 23, Packers 17.
Jeff Benton Sunday's NFL Playoff Action
60 Dime NFL playoff selection on the CHICAGO BEARS plus the points vs. the Packers. Chicago has been holding steady most of the week as a 3½-point home unaerdog. However, the public hammered Green Bay on game day in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and I expect the same thing to happen today. Therefore, it’s makes sense to wait until you can get Chicago at +4.
In any case, I’m instruclting you to buy the half point with the Bears if this line is anywhere from 3 to 4 (so if you can hold out for +4, we’re going to buy the hook and take it to +4½). Why buy the half point when I think Chicago is going to win outright? It’s just cheap insurance to purlhase to protect your investment in case this thing ends 17-13, 21-17 or 24-20 in favor of Green Bay.
15 Dime NFL playoff selection on the BEARS on the money-line vs. the Packers. Chicago is catching anywhere from +165 to +170 on the money-line.
BEARS
Let’s start with an indisputable fact: Anyone who bets the Green Bay Packers today is a freaking sucker and admitting to the entire world that he doesn’t given a crap about line value. Because let me tell you, there is absolutely NO value on Green Bay today – and I mean NONE!
How can I make such an emphatic statement? Well, follow along here:
Two weeks ago, the Packers opened up as a three-point road underdog at Philadelphia and the line was quickly bet down to 2½. Then on game day, it dropped to 2 … then 1½ … and by kickoff, some places had the game as a pick-em. Long story short, the books could not do anything to attract Eagles money, and when Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead and prevailed 21-16, every bookmaker from Vegas to Costa Rica to the guy on the street corner got clobbered.
So last week, the oddsmakers didn’t fool around with the Packers-Falcons line, opening it at Falcons minus-2½ – failing to even give Atlanta (the NFC’s #1 seed and a 14-2 team that had defaated Green Bay at home just a month prior) the token three points for home field advantage. What happened? Packers money poured in again and the line plummeted and plummeted and plummeted and by the time the game kicked off, Green Bay was a one-point road favorite in some spots. You know what happened, of course, as Aaron Rodgers had one of the best quarterbacking performances in NFL playoff history and the Packers rolled 48-21.
And again, the public and wise guys collectively robbed the sports books blind, which brings us to this NFC Championship Game and this incredible pointspread: Knowing that the Packers were going to continue to attract money, Vegas installed Green Bay as a three-point road favorite. Nope, not good enough, as the betting public continued to back the Packers. And thus the number moved to 3½ and is now poised to jump to 4.
Think about that: Green Bay, the #6 seed and playing its third straight road game, is laying more than a field goal … against a #2 seed … that’s 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS (4-0 ATS last four) since its bye week … that also happens to be a divisional rival … that also happens to have defeated Green Bay on this very same field this season.
Are you freaking KIDDING me?
Look, I know the Packers have looked terrific in the first two rounds of these playoffs, and I mean that on both sides of the ball. I also know that the Bears are still a bit of an unknlown quantity simply because last week’s 35-24 win came against the 8-9 (now 8-10) Seattle Seahawks. I understand that it’s tough to gauge what Chicago got out of that win, and certainly, the Packers will provide a stiffer challenge to the Bears than Seattle. Still, we’re talking about a team that’s now 12-5 on the season going from a 10-point home favorite to a 3½-point home underdog in the span of seven days – and not because of some key injury or something.
Guys, this isn’t the ACC or the WAC in college football where you see major line fluctuations from week to week. This is the NFL, and to think a playoff team that won its division and earned a first-round bye can be a 10-point home favorite one week and a 3½-point ‘dog the next, it’s simply unheard of.
Again, I repeat, Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including wins over the Eagles and Jets at home. Now, did one of the two losses come at Green Bay in Week 17? Yes it did (the other was an ugly 36-7 home loss to New England, but I digress). However, did that game mean ANYTHING to the Bears, who had already locked in their playoff seeding and first-round bye the previous week? Hell no. Yet despite having nothing for which to play, Chicago went to Green Bay and scared the living hell out of the Packers before falling 10-3 as an 11-point road underdog. And when I say “scared the living hell out of the Packers,” you may not remember that had Green Bay lost that game, it would’ve missed the playoffs entirely! (By the way, it was a 3-3 contest going into the fourth quarter.)
So in the span of three weeks, the Packers have gone from coming within a whisker of postseason elimination to a sizeable road favorite against a 12-5 division rival against whom the Packers scored a total of 27 points in two meetings this year. Guys, I simply cannot stress enough to how mind-boggling this is!
Listen, I know the critics have been scoffing at the Bears all season long, tabbing them a big ol’ fraud. And yet all they do is keep winning, thanks to much steadier play from QB Jay Cutler (he’s finally wised up and stopped making boneheaded mislakes that lead to crucial turnovers), much smarter play-calling from offensive coordinator Mike Martz (he’s helped rein in Cutler by utilizing the running game more) and one of the league’s best (and most underrated) defenses that gives up just 18.2 points, 312.1 total yards and 86.8 rushing yards per game (the Packers allow 109 rushing ypg).
It’s a defense that has given Rodgers and the explosive Packers fits, as evidenced by Green Bay’s point totals in the last five meetings: 17, 21, 21, 17 and 10.
Two final points to make here: 1) Special teams often goes overlooked in football, but it’s going to be a HUGE deal in this game, as Chicago (think Devin Hester) has a massive edge in this department (the Packers are terrible on punt and kick coverage – as they showed last week in Atlanta when they gave up a kick return for a TD – and they’re also not at all explosive when receiving kicks); and 2) With the Packers coming off consecutive spread-covers, it’s important to note that only once this year did Green Bay cash in at least three games in a row. That’s when it had a four-game SU and ATS run from late October to mid-November. But two of those four covers came at home, and three of those games were against non-playoff teams (Dallas with no Tony Romo, and two wins over the Vikings, a team Chicago swept by scores of 23-13 and 40-14).
Bottom line, guys: The Bears are not getting their just due here – and to be honest, I understand why. I totally understand why this pointspread is what it is: Bookmakers are tired of paying out Packers money and so they’ve set a phony line. Well, they won’t have to worry about paying Packer backers this weekend, because just like five years ago – when the Rex Grossman-led Bears pounded the upstart, everybody-is-in-love-with-them Saints 39-14 as just a 2½-point home favorite to reach the Super Bowl – Chicago is winning this game OUTRIGHT!
Bears 23, Packers 17.
